Just take a look at countries that use a proportional or semi-proportional system and have a look at how many MPs independent candidates get. It can be as many as 10-15%
The Independent Group for Change | Have decided to disband after ten months
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) was joined by comedian Ali Woods to look back at the best and worst moments of a rollercoaster season with the annual United Hour Awards.
Has Ten Hag been sacked yet? We're not sure and we hope not, but it's looking more likely as the days pass.
Who should replace him and why is it taking so long to make a decision?
That's two different things. A manifesto is needed to run an electoral campaign. TIG isn't running an electoral campaign.
They are also - you know - an independent group. They may be running on not having a proper party manifesto.
As someone who hates party-politics, I'd much rather 650 MPs think and vote for themselves, rather than thinking and voting on what's better for the party.
Yeah, because there's a legacy and organisational structure to support that. That won't exist in the first election with PR here. What will happen is that the lib dems pick up a dozen more seats and maybe the greens pick up a couple more in bristol and oxford where they have a big support system, a new independent group won't have that for several years
that won't be to their credit when they're supporting eachother, people won't think "oh how lovely they're not beholden to a party" they'll think "why the feck is chuka in bed with that reactionary cnut" or "why is soubry in bed with that sjw bastard", their current support comes from single issue remain voters a base which will likely dissipate in 5 weeks time
All true
Hello, just saw this.
Currently my local party is focusing on having an All Member Meeting to decide whether to have All Member Meetings in the future, to make it easier to deselect the sitting MP.
Scores of members have left over Brexit and Corbyn's creative ambiguity on this issue. Messageboards are toxic environments and there appears to be a hardcore of the membership who are defending the leadership come what may and are hell bent on identifying disloyalty to the party and the leader.
Emily Thornberry's speech yesterday is indicative of this. She might as well have copied her words directly from the Daily Mail as she railed against saboteurs and betrayals of Corbyn.
I am still a member, but increasingly I think the fight for the direction of the party has been lost.
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Marr interview with Luciana Berger and Heidi Allen about nationalisation, tuition fees and taxation
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i want to vomit
Much appreciated. The difference in tact from Watson and seemingly the rest of the shadow cabinet in this has been eye-opening. A few commentators have been saying the bigger schism is still to come, and whether that's the case or not I'd say that hinges on how many agree with your final sentence.
It's odd how people just forget that and characterise the election as a big defeat for the Conservatives.
What actually happened is that the voting was vey polarised - the 2 party scenario returning with a vengeance - and it was the smaller parties who suffered. It will be interesting to see if this trend is continued in the next general election, or if the smaller parties make some kind of comeback. The Independent Group will be very much hoping for the latter.
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I wonder if this is a prelude to a realignment of the centre. I can imagine a Lib Dem / TIG join up / merger - the TIG gets the Lib Dem’s national infrastructure, the Lib Dem’s get a much needed rebrand, and possible new leadership. Voila, a new centre party able to command 20% in the polls, and a bloc of MPs able to temper the nutters on both sids of the house,
Centre parties don't tend to fare well in our FPTP voting system - 20% of the vote wouldn't be unprecedented, but it doesn't translate into 20% of the seats - and I think voters understand that. The challenge will be for the centre party to come up with a compelling manifesto which appeals to present Conservative and Labour voters, and to both Brexit and remain supporters. That looks like a tough ask, so the nutters will continue to thrive.
Between 97-10 the Lib Dems were able to do a somewhat reasonable job. They were still underrepresented massively in parliament but at least commanded a respectable presence and had plenty of safe seats, impressive for a party often commanding under a quarter of the vote, all things considered. Problem is it's hard to build that sort of traction up, and once it's gone it's arguably close to impossible to regain. Generally you'll only be able to do it at a more localised level.
The only good thing about this group is it gives me another reason to read Mark Fisher Capitalism Realism.
Traditionally I'd agree... But also rember they have been squeezed by both new labour and Cameron's compassionate conservatism both trying to occupy a more central position and ultimately using that to win elections from.
We now have comrade jezbollah dragging labour off to the left of venesuela
And the erg dragging the conservatives somewhere to the right of British empire
It does leave a lot of room in the centre for a party
The libs are a damaged brand but do have a decent grass roots organisation behind them and t.i.g. offers a chance to refresh and re-emerge... I could see a centre party comprised of the two of them doing ok... Particularly as Corbyn is seen as backing brexit there is possibly 48% of people feeling neither major party is representing their views at the moment.
Won't be easy to break the 2 party monopoly but the circumstances are favourable to giving it a go
These are also very politically volatile times. frankly anything is possible and while I agree our system makes it hard for third parties, history shows it’s not impossible. And even if they can’t “win” elections, they can still be a very significant influence in such a weak parliament. They can seriously damage labour too, arguably labour has no chance of winning another election if the left splits. Watson knows it too. That early poll is suggestive of the problem for labour (the corbynites are too self absorbed to spot the danger of course, they’d rather widen splits than close them). There are decent prizes to be had for sure if TIG play it right
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The fallout from Brexit - whether it happens or not - is likely to be acrimonious, and it does have the potential to break the mould in UK politics. This could be an opportunity for a centre party, but it will have to appeal to people on both sides of the Brexit argument if it is to have any prospect of electoral success.
The number on the remain side is only going to rise, whatever happens. Demographics will see to that.
SDP mark 2 = hard right conservative government lead by ERG groups prominent members.
Its like the 80's never happened.
I wouldn't be so sure. Remember the 'old fogies' who voted in favour of Brexit this time around were also the people who voted in favour of Common Market membership the previous time. People change, their attitudes and priorities change, and so do institutions.
The 80s were a darned sight better than the 70s.
Not for Labour it wasn't.
I think the danger there would be that people see it as just that, the Lib Dems with a new name, when the new lot have been trying to distance themselves from the "old, failed parties". It's a conundrum for them, as it would be very tough to make any sort of impact in an election (in terms of winning seats themselves, rather than acting as a spoiler) without at least an electoral pact with the LDs.
It says a lot for the toughness of what they're doing that the SDP-Libs was actually a successful example of a third party emerging in the UK (edit - should really say England, as the SNP have also clearly done it since), it being the first time since the 20s that a third party had achieved more than 20% and won over 20 seats.
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And they were probably quite unlucky in that (I imagine) they were probably on the threshold of doing a lot better than they did. A swing of a few percentages points might have been enough to deliver them a lot more seats. And had, say, the Falklands not happened then Thatcher's popularity may not have increased as much as it did, and it may have been more of a genuine three-horse race.
Although I struggle to see the IG replicating any of that because figures like Jenkins were a lot more credible and respected than someone like Chuka.
While Jenkins was respected, his frontbench heyday was ~16 years before the split. Arguably someone like Chuka still could have his best days in front of him. Who knows.
I struggle to see Chuka doing anything substantial now in the future. He's nailed his colours to the mast by leaving Labour and so it's all or nothing for him with the IG - even if the party swings back to the centre the membership aren't going to want someone who abandoned them previously to side with literal Tories.
Will be interesting to see who else could merge Vince cable... who could defect from the conservatives grieve, ken clarke... Labour people like starmer, Benn, Watson and cooper
Plus people currently out of politics might be tempted to come back... Balls, milliband, Osbourne (I guess it's very unlikley but even clegg, Cameron, Blair)
I doubt most of them will join... But it's quite possible before it becomes an official party there may be viable options other than chukka.
I struggle to see most of the current MP's you've mentioned defecting. Clarke's obviously an outlier in the current Tory party, but is still largely a Conservative through and through, while also being incredibly old. I struggle to see Benn abandoning Labour due to his connection to it, nor can I see someone fairly ambitious like Starmer moving to the IG. Watson would perhaps consider it - can't see Cooper going. But even then, none of them (apart from maybe Starmer, at a push) are all that impressive.
Perhaps... But neither are May / Corbyn
I think a competent and charismatic leader (for any party) would be a huge boost at the moment... Shame there does not seem to be many if any viable options... Perhaps t.i.g should just get somebody off telly who will grab lots of media attention... Afterall it worked in America
On the other hand, there's less tribal attachment to the main parties these days, and a genuine national crisis rumbling on in the background as catalyst. I agree though, uphill battle to say the least.
Think the credibility gap also applies to Corbyn and May tbf. There aren’t many pppular politicians around at the mo.
Shock horror someone wants to base policy on evidence not blind ideology! Ya boo hiss! Down with them!
Backing May though
Evidence of what? Presumably evidence that some policy leads to things being 'better'. But the entirety of politics is disagreement over what constitutes better.Shock horror someone wants to base policy on evidence not blind ideology! Ya boo hiss! Down with them!
Backing May though
e.g. Is it better to have choice in the health system? Because the evidence would show that privatising increases choice. So we should follow the evidence and do that. Or maybe it is better to have a more efficient system (however you measure that)? Or maybe you think it is better to have the best patient outcomes possible and so follow evidence that shows substantial public funding and raising taxes on the wealthiest to fund it is the best policy?
Saying we are going to follow the evidence is just a placeholder for 'we know what we believe in isn't popular with the public'
Having the option of backing May gives them leverage over her. It’s good tactics.
I dunno the whole Brexit issue is what you get when evidence based politics stops and it becomes driven by identity and ideology.
In a land of pygmies the 5ft foot man is king...
1) I don’t think Brexit will be concluded in five weeks, and it will probably take decades for the political fallout to conclude.
2) All parties are broad churches - look at Kate Hoey in the Labour Party. I think Soubry therefore should be seen as the outlier of the group, rather than representing the norm for the new group/ party’s economic views. Though I imagine we’ll find this out in time... they’re not a party yet and need to have these debates before they become one. I think post-Brexit there would be little reason for Soubry to be in this group, though I doubt there’s a chasm between the political views of Heidi Allen and most of the Labour MPs in TIG.
I know he’s been hated by momentum types for a while, but I actually think Chuka is fairly popular with the man on the street. Judging by the ‘what do my friends/family/colleagues who don’t follow politics say about him’ test I think he’s on the more likeable end of politicians than May and Corbs. Clearly that’s a low bar, but if this ‘movement’ doesn’t blow up, I could see him having a Clegg-esque impact at a future election.
Admiteddly, it could be that the more people see of him the more they think he’s a smug wanker, but that never had too much of an impact on Cameron.
The broad church approach only works though when you're already a big party. Hoey's an outlier because she's one of about three or four MP's in the Labour Party (at most) who hold her views, and even then she's regarded as being the most extreme voice. It's much more difficult for Soubry to be an outlier when she's something like nearly 10% of the party, in terms of MP's. Especially when she's got other Tories by her side.