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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .

RORY65

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They're part of the United Kingdom right now and they want to remain in the EU, so it's in their interest for the UK to remain in the EU. It's not remotely hypocritical for them to also want to leave the UK. All the more so now the UK seems determined to leave the EU, against their wishes.
Particularly given a big argument used to encourage Scottish voters to vote to stay in the union during the Independence referendum was how it would be difficult for them to join the EU as an independent nation.
 

jderbyshire

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I don't think a general election is in anyone's interest right now. Except maybe the Tories.

Electoral fatigue.

Conservative majority if it happens.

A lot of people have sympathy for May (feeling she's between a rock and a hard place, being hard-done-to, etc. by petulant MPs)

From a Left/progressive/Labour POV, best to let the Tories front the shit-show of a No-Deal Brexit for a while.
 

Cal?

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In theory. But theyve shown they actually cant.

Or you think on Monday they can agree to something on the indicative votes thing?
BINO + 2nd referendum should just about get over the line
 

Brownie85

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In theory. But theyve shown they actually cant.

Or you think on Monday they can agree to something on the indicative votes thing?
I honestly think they won't find anything on the indicative votes because MP's are completely split on what they want. It'll be more of the same, plus would they be able to bring back the same vote again? Wouldn't Bercow have something to say about that? If the house has rejected No Deal, Second Referendum, Revoking and Customs Union, then whats left to vote on?
 

Adebesi

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No I don't but having a new parliament doesn't really change course for a new plan. Same old same old.
Oh I agree, I said as much a few minutes ago. But the EU will have to play along with the fantasy that it is a step towards a solution. There is no way if we say now we are going to have a GE that the EU say too late, time's up, youre out. It just wont happen. Even if they wanted to deep down they wont because it stiffs one of their members.
 

Cal?

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I honestly think they won't find anything on the indicative votes because MP's are completely split on what they want. It'll be more of the same, plus would they be able to bring back the same vote again? Wouldn't Bercow have something to say about that? If the house has rejected No Deal, Second Referendum, Revoking and Customs Union, then whats left to vote on?
Indicative votes is a 2 stage process
 

Smores

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The problem is, if you have another referendum and leave wins again with a majority of 49 - 51, then MP's and remainers would complain again that it was too close and there needs to be a more decisive outcome, and calls for another vote would appear.

Plus, shouldn't a confirmatory vote be "Do you agree with this deal - Yes/No" not "Do you agree with this deal - Yes/Remain" thats not a confirmatory vote, is it?
A second vote would be decisive by way of it being a second vote. You can't just lay out some made up scenario to debunk a people's vote.

Surely the logical conclusion of not confirming an instruction is to cancel? This is the brexit we can deliver do you want it yes or no. Simple
 

JPRouve

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Really? I heard someone, some EU bod, say it. But maybe not someone with any authority.

I think a GE is seen as the first step in formulating a clear plan.

I cant imagine the EU booting the UK out while it is organising its GE to try and restore some order. I mean, I can see the temptation. But it is always going to come back to the fact they also get hurt. And Ireland, in particular, gets shafted. So they will take the excuse to give the UK more time.
No one is booting the UK out, the UK decided to leave and they are free to change their mind on that particular topic. EU member states have to take care of themselves and they can't really stay in the unknown forever. I mean what happens if there is a long extension and the next government has no clearer plan or majority?

The UK is lucky that Ireland exists, it's the only reason why the rest of Europe hasn't told your politician to do one. And I insist on politicians, the majority of british citizens are hostages of absolute weapons but they need to understand that it's the same situation for the rest of the EU, we are in a limbo for no good reason. If they want to leave just do that but if they don't want to leave or aren't not sure then cancel everything and we all move on.
 

Cal?

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A second vote would be decisive by way of it being a second vote. You can't just lay out some made up scenario to debunk a people's vote.

Surely the logical conclusion of not confirming an instruction is to cancel? This is the brexit we can deliver do you want it yes or no. Simple
This
 

esmufc07

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Really? I heard someone, some EU bod, say it. But maybe not someone with any authority.

I think a GE is seen as the first step in formulating a clear plan.

I cant imagine the EU booting the UK out while it is organising its GE to try and restore some order. I mean, I can see the temptation. But it is always going to come back to the fact they also get hurt. And Ireland, in particular, gets shafted. So they will take the excuse to give the UK more time.
The EU isn't booting us out and we can withdraw A50 at any time.
 

Brownie85

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Indicative votes is a 2 stage process
So where do we go then on Monday they all get voted down again?

On Wednesday, didn't the Tories get a free vote, whilst Labour were whipped? I didn't follow it too closely as i'm frankly extremely bored of the whole thing now. It's like a group of toddlers arguing over what they want to play with!
 

Adebesi

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No one is booting the UK out, the UK decided to leave and they are free to change their mind on that particular topic. EU member states have to take care of themselves and they can't really stay in the unknown forever. I mean what happens if there is a long extension and the next government has no clearer plan or majority?

The UK is lucky that Ireland exists, it's the only reason why the rest of Europe hasn't told your politician to do one. And I insist on politicians, the majority of british citizens are hostages of absolute weapons but they need to understand that it's the same situation for the rest of the EU, we are in a limbo for no good reason. If they want to leave just do that but if they don't want to leave or aren't not sure then cancel everything and we all move on.
Right. But Ireland does exist.

Anyway we wont have long to wait to see who is right.
 

Paul the Wolf

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Oh I agree, I said as much a few minutes ago. But the EU will have to play along with the fantasy that it is a step towards a solution. There is no way if we say now we are going to have a GE that the EU say too late, time's up, youre out. It just wont happen. Even if they wanted to deep down they wont because it stiffs one of their members.
It will go on forever, ten years down the line it will still be the same ,will the EU let it go on forever
 

Classical Mechanic

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They're part of the United Kingdom right now and they want to remain in the EU, so it's in their interest for the UK to remain in the EU. It's not remotely hypocritical for them to also want to leave the UK. All the more so now the UK seems determined to leave the EU, against their wishes.
It's totally hypocritical for them to campaign to stay in the EU on the basis that leaving would do damage to the Scottish economy etc when Scotland is more dependent on the UK internal market than the UK is with the EU economically.
 

Cal?

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So where do we go then on Monday they all get voted down again?

On Wednesday, didn't the Tories get a free vote, whilst Labour were whipped? I didn't follow it too closely as i'm frankly extremely bored of the whole thing now. It's like a group of toddlers arguing over what they want to play with!
I still think a soft Brexit & a public vote should get it over the line. We’ll see
 

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Imo, You should have a referendum with three options: No, soft or Hard Brexit. Or possibly just two: Hard and No Brexit.
Brexiteers campaign should be on how they would protect the union and the economy; Remainers on a possible new future relationship with the EU.
 

MikeUpNorth

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I still think a soft Brexit & a public vote should get it over the line. We’ll see
Maybe, but anything getting a majority in parliament still has to be an outside bet. It would probably bring down the government as well - enough ERG would likely back the opposition in a vote of no confidence.
 

JPRouve

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Right. But Ireland does exist.

Anyway we wont have long to wait to see who is right.
And Ireland prepared for a no deal, that's the part that is missed, while the EU and Ireland will try everything to avoid it, they won't try forever. And there is no chance for me to be right since I haven't claimed a thing, I don't know what EU leaders will decide since they haven't officially talked about it yet, it will happen the 10th.
 

Brownie85

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I still think a soft Brexit & a public vote should get it over the line. We’ll see
Problem is, i've read that upto 40 Labour MP's refuse to back a public vote because it goes against what their constituents voted for. They want to respect what was originally voted for, and will defy the whip/resign. Whether or not they actually do it when it comes down to it remains to be seen.
 

Cal?

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Maybe, but anything getting a majority in parliament still has to be an outside bet. It would probably bring down the government as well - enough ERG would likely back the opposition in a vote of no confidence.
That’s probably true. :(
 

pacifictheme

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Problem is, i've read that upto 40 Labour MP's refuse to back a public vote because it goes against what their constituents voted for. They want to respect what was originally voted for, and will defy the whip/resign. Whether or not they actually do it when it comes down to it remains to be seen.
Bellends.
 

MikeUpNorth

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Hypothetically, if the EU Commission plays hardball and blocks a further extension (or rather just one of the nations uses its veto), what do you reckon, would parliament go with no deal on April 12 or revoke A50?

I think it'd be no deal.
 

Adebesi

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And Ireland prepared for a no deal, that's the part that is missed, while the EU and Ireland will try everything to avoid it, they won't try forever. And there is no chance for me to be right since I haven't claimed a thing, I don't know what EU leaders will decide since they haven't officially talked about it yet, it will happen the 10th.
Well no, if we knew what they were going to do we wouldnt be having a conversation speculating about it.

If you say you havent claimed anything Ill take your word for it.

My claim is that IF the UK calls a GE then the EU will grant an extension to allow it to happen. Im certainly not claiming it SHOULD do that, that it is in the EU's best interests. I just think they will do that.

I dont think a GE is a foregone conclusion though, because the Tories will be shitting themselves that Corbyn will win it.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Yes, "booting us out" is the wrong way to put it.

But they wont give an ultimatum, "stay or leave, right now, decide" if we have called a GE.
They might not offer an ultimatum. They might just say, that's it, no deal it is.

Obviously, that's a nightmare for all concerned but the EU could consider it preferable to an indefinite limbo that ends up with the same outcome. There comes a point when everyone has to admit that the British parliament will never be able to agree on this issue. Which certainly looks likely right now.
 

Devil_forever

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Hypothetically, if the EU Commission plays hardball and blocks a further extension (or rather just one of the nations uses its veto), what do you reckon, would parliament go with no deal on April 12 or revoke A50?

I think it'd be no deal.
No way a remain parliament would allow a no deal.
 

Cal?

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Hypothetically, if the EU Commission plays hardball and blocks a further extension (or rather just one of the nations uses its veto), what do you reckon, would parliament go with no deal on April 12 or revoke A50?

I think it'd be no deal.
Revoke I think, no deal only got 140 votes?
The logical move would be another vote, this time only between the two Leave options.
What? If Remain gets 49% of the votes you want a 2nd round between 2 options that totaled 51%?
 

Adebesi

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They might not offer an ultimatum. They might just say, that's it, no deal it is.

Obviously, that's a nightmare for all concerned but they could consider it preferable to an indefinite limbo that ends up with the same outcome. There comes a point when everyone has to admit that the British parliament will never be able to agree on this issue. Which certainly looks likely right now.
The way I see it, if there is an option to do something decisive, or an option to give it a bit more time and see what happens, the EU usually takes the latter option.

Anyway, as has been said, we dont know what will happen but we'll know soon enough, things tend to move quite quickly in this particular soap opera.
 

MikeUpNorth

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They might not offer an ultimatum. They might just say, that's it, no deal it is.

Obviously, that's a nightmare for all concerned but the EU could consider it preferable to an indefinite limbo that ends up with the same outcome. There comes a point when everyone has to admit that the British parliament will never be able to agree on this issue. Which certainly looks likely right now.
The thing that makes me think it is possible the EU Commission would take the route of saying 'no more extensions' is because they must realise that a no-deal is likely to be temporary. The exit would happen, it would be an economic shitshow and Britain would have to agree the key terms of the Withdrawal Agreement (divorce bill, citizen's rights and Irish border backstop) anyway as a precondition to whatever the future relationship / trade deal is.
 

Pogue Mahone

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It's totally hypocritical for them to campaign to stay in the EU on the basis that leaving would do damage to the Scottish economy etc when Scotland is more dependent on the UK internal market than the UK is with the EU economically.
Again, not hypocritical. Just pragmatic. Whether they like it or not, any damage to the UK economy also damages their economy. So they don’t want the UK to make stupid decisions which damage its/their economy.

They obviously believe that staying in the EU - while leaving the UK - will be a net benefit for their economy. They could be wrong but that’s not hypocritical.