Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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devilish

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Some banks have ie. Goldman Sachs sending a few to Frankfurt as they worry about Euro clearing but where else? I've not seen or heard it? I wish that was the case as most of my work is in mainland Europe!
Well Brexit doner Lord Ashford suggested Malta as a prime location for British companies to move to. I don't know whether they moved or not but rent had gone to the roof in Malta lately.
 

Fiskey

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Well Brexit doner Lord Ashford suggested Malta as a prime location for British companies to move to. I don't know whether they moved or not but rent had gone to the roof in Malta lately.
Rent has gone through the roof throughout Europe, I think Dublin and Amsterdam the worst. I think it's just a general trend rather than anything to do with Brexit.

I have heard of some gaming companies moving from Gibraltar to Malta or choosing Malta given Brexit fears, but I don't think it would have a massive impact.
 

devilish

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Rent has gone through the roof throughout Europe, I think Dublin and Amsterdam the worst. I think it's just a general trend rather than anything to do with Brexit.

I have heard of some gaming companies moving from Gibraltar to Malta or choosing Malta given Brexit fears, but I don't think it would have a massive impact.
I assure you mate, rent in Malta has hit the roof. UK companies has been moving into especially in the gambling industry.
 

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Just felt the first effects of Brexit today personally, or at least what we have been told.

I am currently in the process of selling our other house (long story, not rich at all before anyone starts - it's a unique situation). It sold for 10k above asking price so the market is obviously strong and the demand is there, we even had 40 viewings, compared to 3 the last time we tried to sell 5 years ago. Everything was going great but we've just had the survey valuation report back from the buyers and they have valued the place at 40k less than what it has sold for so obviously this has thrown a spanner in the works. They even state there is nothing wrong with the property at all. The estate agent and buyer are both stunned so god knows what is going to happen now.

Apparently surveyors can be sued if someone defaults on their mortgage now (if they overvalued) so they are really undervaluing properties to protect themselves should there be a financial crisis due to Brexit. And now we are fecked because that stupidly shit valuation is on a portal and can't be removed. Effectively property/asset slander.
 

Fiskey

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I assure you mate, rent in Malta has hit the roof. UK companies has been moving into especially in the gambling industry.
Gambling isn't services though strictly, but I take your point. It's quite a specific situation though, and there will be specific situations where industries become less competitive after Brexit.
 

Paul the Wolf

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I know they have something very different. They also have something different to each other. And to Turkey. And to Canada. And to Korea. That is literally my point. That all are different. That is what the British negotiators were suggesting.
This was what my 'flippant' point was about - yes they are all different - however, they all have one thing in common, the really big problem, which if the UK had similar deals to any of these , it would not solve it - there's a customs border.
 

africanspur

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This was what my 'flippant' point was about - yes they are all different - however, they all have one thing in common, the really big problem, which if the UK had similar deals to any of these , it would not solve it - there's a customs border.
I agree that any of those deals would be worse than what the UK currently has. As I've said multiple times, I voted remain and would vote remain again a thousand times. However the reality is thus now and rather than constantly complaining about it (I know not really relevant to you as you don't live here anymore), the best thing now is to try to shape the country in the best way possible for the future.

Hopefully that involves lots of amazing deals with all the major economies in the Americas, Oceania, Asia and the EU as well. I hope there are closer links with Africa. I hope the UK doesn't develop an adversarial relationship with the EU and I am sad for the opportunities I feel have been taken away from my kids and others like them.

I'm not convinced that the above will happen but at this point, you may as well try.

@Grinner I'd join you in that kicking too if you ever tracked him down.
 

Paul the Wolf

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I agree that any of those deals would be worse than what the UK currently has. As I've said multiple times, I voted remain and would vote remain again a thousand times. However the reality is thus now and rather than constantly complaining about it (I know not really relevant to you as you don't live here anymore), the best thing now is to try to shape the country in the best way possible for the future.

Hopefully that involves lots of amazing deals with all the major economies in the Americas, Oceania, Asia and the EU as well. I hope there are closer links with Africa. I hope the UK doesn't develop an adversarial relationship with the EU and I am sad for the opportunities I feel have been taken away from my kids and others like them.

I'm not convinced that the above will happen but at this point, you may as well try.

@Grinner I'd join you in that kicking too if you ever tracked him down.
I agree you have to get the best possible future and it's only from a spectator perspective for me personally.
The UK's biggest single customer country is already the USA, they already produce cars for China, they already had deals with Canada and Korea and Japan which they will no longer have from next year.
They will no doubt have some kind of deal with the EU.

But whether they get fantastic new deals or not with far off countries and it's a big but and nobody answers this question (sensibly) , how the hell does it cope with a customs border with the EU.
 

Kentonio

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Same in Italy for citizenship, and the standard required is one I'll never reach! My British friend here recently passed the extensive language competency exams but she's absolutely fluent - even so, she said it wasn't easy.
In France they just ask for B1 level, which is allegedly just ‘conversational’. I don’t know how tough the test is in practice though.
 

devilish

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It would be hard to reciprocate because English is virtually the lingua franca in the EU. I imagine people will find ways around the language requirements if they're not too strict about checking.
Most countries are proud of their language. I have mates working in Belgium and they say it almost impossible to get non EU related jobs there without knowing the language. Meanwhile Germany do impose language prolificiency test if I remember well

Some countries like Italy depend on youths going elsewhere for work at least till they get experience. I doubt many European nations are happy with how the UK is treating their migrants.
 

devilish

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Just read this article from NYT in December. One of the reasons why the EU budget discussions will be difficult.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/11/world/europe/eu-farm-subsidy-lobbying.html
To be fair the European agricultural sector is a thorny issue with the US as it was one of the reasons why TTIP was shot. So they might be a bit biased against it.

Rest assured that the US agricultural lobby is as strong if not stronger then the European one. The UK will soon learn that when conducting a trade deal with them
 

Fiskey

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To be fair the European agricultural sector is a thorny issue with the US as it was one of the reasons why TTIP was shot. So they might be a bit biased against it.

Rest assured that the US agricultural lobby is as strong if not stronger then the European one. The UK will soon learn that when conducting a trade deal with them
Oh yeah, I think that agricultural subsidies are basically an avenue for corruption, wherever in the world. Payments should be linked to increasing bio-diversity and animal welfare, nothing else.

I've read about the subsidies massive American corn farmers such as Cargill and Bungee get, and it's just as dirty. Also read today that Cargill are entering the vegan food business, which is completely unsurprising after a couple years of militant outriding.
 

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Oh yeah, I think that agricultural subsidies are basically an avenue for corruption, wherever in the world. Payments should be linked to increasing bio-diversity and animal welfare, nothing else.

I've read about the subsidies massive American corn farmers such as Cargill and Bungee get, and it's just as dirty. Also read today that Cargill are entering the vegan food business, which is completely unsurprising after a couple years of militant outriding.
I don't know enough about agricultural subsidies and tax reliefs to know if they are justified or not, but given they exist I would include clauses to withdraw them if public footpaths, stiles and gates etc are not kept open. Just my thing. :)
 

JPRouve

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Thing is you don't really need a trade deal on services to trade services. You just need a company willing to make an international transfer into your bank account.
Many services require a license or accreditation and they are generally geographically limited. So no, you don't just need an international transfer into your bank account.
 

Fiskey

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Many services require a license or accreditation and they are generally geographically limited. So no, you don't just need an international transfer into your bank account.
But the EU doesn't mitigate this. There are different regulations and licences in different EU countries.
 

JPRouve

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But the EU doesn't mitigate this. There are different regulations and licences in different EU countries.
Which is the point, your claim was wrong. You don't just need an international transfer. And here you have an example that shows that services are indeed part of trade deals.
 

Fiskey

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Which is the point, your claim was wrong. You don't just need an international transfer. And here you have an example that shows that services are indeed part of trade deals.
This looks to be a bit like the rules that forbid a player from speaking to another club until their current club has given them permission. I can understand why they are there, but in practice completely pointless.
 

JPRouve

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This looks to be a bit like the rules that forbid a player from speaking to another club until their current club has given them permission. I can understand why they are there, but in practice completely pointless.
No, it doesn't. It's like registration rules, you actually need to be registered to play.
 

Fiskey

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No, it doesn't. It's like registration rules, you actually need to be registered to play.
I don't know what you do for work but trust me, outside of the highly regulated industries such as Health, Architecture and Finance no one is performing an economic needs test before taking on whatever contractor they see fit to do the job.
 

JPRouve

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I don't know what you do for work but trust me, outside of the highly regulated industries such as Health, Architecture and Finance no one is performing an economic needs test before taking on whatever contractor they see fit to do the job.
This answer is a bit strange, @devilish was talking about these highly regulated industries that are key for the UK. Your answer was fundamentally wrong because services are a key point of trade deals but also wrong in the context of the conversation that you had with devilish.
 

Fiskey

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This answer is a bit strange, @devilish was talking about these highly regulated industries that are key for the UK. Your answer was fundamentally wrong because services are a key point of trade deals but also wrong in the context of the conversation that you had with devilish.
You're a strange person to interact with, as you're always trying to prove something and declare victory rather than share ideas and learn. Its not why I post and I don't find proving points over the internet particularly enjoyable or worth my time. Devilish and I weren't talking about Financial Services, and I'm sure the UK negotiating team will be very keen to get some kind of agreement in this area.

I was making the point in response to Devilish saying that WTO doesn't deal with services, that the majority of service exchange can happen freely without a trade deal. This is factually true, do you think a small business in Austria or Belgium are carrying out a economic needs test before hiring a software developer from India through freelancer from India to do a project? Of course not.
 

JPRouve

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You're a strange person to interact with, as you're always trying to prove something and declare victory rather than share ideas and learn. Its not why I post and I don't find proving points over the internet particularly enjoyable or worth my time. Devilish and I weren't talking about Financial Services, and I'm sure the UK negotiating team will be very keen to get some kind of agreement in this area.

I was making the point in response to Devilish saying that WTO doesn't deal with services, that the majority of service exchange can happen freely without a trade deal. This is factually true, do you think a small business in Austria or Belgium are carrying out a economic needs test before hiring a software developer from India through freelancer from India to do a project? Of course not.
Why do you use a software developer as an example, did I suggest that all services were limited? I simply made the point that many services require bilateral agreements because they are regulated, it was a simple point in response to a post that put all services in the same bag.

As for the first sentence no need to make it personal, I didn't declare victory and won't.
 

Paul the Wolf

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See that Steve Baker has resigned as Chairman of the European Research Group as their work is done. After many years they can now finally confirm their research that the UK is indeed in Europe and Raab confirms they do live on an island.

David Davis, in the meantime, is still looking for some intelligence, of his own.
 

Rams

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You're a strange person to interact with, as you're always trying to prove something and declare victory rather than share ideas and learn. Its not why I post and I don't find proving points over the internet particularly enjoyable or worth my time. Devilish and I weren't talking about Financial Services, and I'm sure the UK negotiating team will be very keen to get some kind of agreement in this area.

I was making the point in response to Devilish saying that WTO doesn't deal with services, that the majority of service exchange can happen freely without a trade deal. This is factually true, do you think a small business in Austria or Belgium are carrying out a economic needs test before hiring a software developer from India through freelancer from India to do a project? Of course not.
Brexit will impact how British companies can offer their services in the EU (and vice versa). For example, in the industry I work in, insurance companies in the UK will no longer be able to offer their services directly in the EU (depending on what trade deal will be in place of course). Not trying to prove a point, just separating fact from fiction!
 

sun_tzu

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Brexit will impact how British companies can offer their services in the EU (and vice versa). For example, in the industry I work in, insurance companies in the UK will no longer be able to offer their services directly in the EU (depending on what trade deal will be in place of course). Not trying to prove a point, just separating fact from fiction!
BMW sells cars and thats goods and thats simple right... except its not because most people don't pay up front for their car - most people lease it or pay for it in installments through BMW finance... I think many people dont realise how intertwined goods and services have become these days and there really isnt much time for people to figure it out
i sell and rent products and the rental is classed as a service whilst the sale is goods (its the same product)
 

Maticmaker

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BMW sells cars and thats goods and thats simple right... except its not because most people don't pay up front for their car - most people lease it or pay for it in installments through BMW finance... I think many people dont realise how intertwined goods and services have become these days and there really isnt much time for people to figure it out
i sell and rent products and the rental is classed as a service whilst the sale is goods (its the same product)
What has to be figured out? Will everyone have to pay up front for their new car, no leasing or paying by instalments? Or will car dealers not be able to offer financial deals directly as at present?
Can understand there will be a difference between buying and or leasing, but not sure what you are getting at with overall HP deals? Can you shed any light?
 

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What has to be figured out? Will everyone have to pay up front for their new car, no leasing or paying by instalments? Or will car dealers not be able to offer financial deals directly as at present?
Can understand there will be a difference between buying and or leasing, but not sure what you are getting at with overall HP deals? Can you shed any light?
What he is saying has no bearing whatsoever because BMW Financial services is a wholly UK company. You can finance it via any company however. So is BMW UK for that matter which buys the cars from BMW AG in Germany and sells them in the UK market to individuals or to a finance company. Their cashflow is always maintained for the goods provided.
 

Abizzz

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What he is saying has no bearing whatsoever because BMW Financial services is a wholly UK company. You can finance it via any company however. So is BMW UK for that matter which buys the cars from BMW AG in Germany and sells them in the UK market to individuals or to a finance company. Their cashflow is always maintained for the goods provided.
Source for this? As far as I know BMW Financial is 100% owned by BMW Bank which isn't a UK company.
 

Abizzz

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https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/01288537/

BMW (UK) Holdings LTD is the sole owner of BMW Financial Services.
Sorry I'm having trouble finding that in the link provided, could you point me there?. In the latest "Full Accounts" pdf they state that 349 of 379 employees are on BMW AG contracts and that they report directly to BMW AG. I can't find any other owners than BMW AG either?

Did find this though:
BMW AG is the ultimate parent of BMW UK, BMW (UK) Holdings Limited and BMW Financial Services and references to “BMW AG” are to Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft whose address is Petuelring 130, 80788 Munich, Germany.
 

Ultimate Grib

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Sorry I'm having trouble finding that in the link provided, could you point me there?. In the latest "Full Accounts" pdf they state that 349 of 379 employees are on BMW AG contracts and that they report directly to BMW AG. I can't find any other owners than BMW AG either?

Did find this though:
On the link, if you go to people and then persons with significant control it lists the "owner" and what governing law it operates under. Through corporate structure the ultimate owner is of course BMW AG but each company operates individually within the governing law. I don't think BMW Bank operates in the UK at all.
 
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Rams

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If the company selling the service in the UK is a British registered & licensed company then I guess Brexit won’t change a thing (where the mother company of said company is domiciled is irrelevant). Brexit will impact a none UK domiciled company from the EU trying to sell its services in the UK. I guess the easiest solution would be for said EU company to set up a company in the UK (and vice versa).
 

Ultimate Grib

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If the company selling the service in the UK is a British registered & licensed company then I guess Brexit won’t change a thing (where the mother company of said company is domiciled is irrelevant). Brexit will impact a none UK domiciled company from the EU trying to sell its services in the UK. I guess the easiest solution would be for said EU company to set up a company in the UK (and vice versa).
Its not that simple. Thy can do that/are doing it now. The only thing Brexit will change is tariffs. So take BMW as an example since we mentioned it, they sell/asset transfer to their UK arm who then sells on to consumers. Currently this is free and easy while after Brexit there can be tariffs involved. Only way to get around it completely is to actually have manufacturing in the UK (BMW has a plant in Oxford). I do wonder whether they can assemble the car in Germany, then transfer it to UK as parts (which will invoke lower tariffs) for finishing and class the finished product as UK built...

I'm sure corporations will find ways around taxation. They do it brilliantly already. Its the small and medium business that will suffer, farmers, etc.
 

devilish

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In my opinion, the EU's biggest fear is for the integrity of the single market to be breached. That means the UK being able to have unrestricted access in the single market without any level playing field whatsoever. If you ask me, I can see the EU going for a very conservative deal, which allows tight control over what goes out of the UK and in the EU. In time that tight control might be released with bilateral agreements as seen fit. The EU can afford that, considering that its a huge market with trade deals all across the world. Unfortunately I can see the UK being happy with that.
 

MikeUpNorth

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In my opinion, the EU's biggest fear is for the integrity of the single market to be breached. That means the UK being able to have unrestricted access in the single market without any level playing field whatsoever. If you ask me, I can see the EU going for a very conservative deal, which allows tight control over what goes out of the UK and in the EU. In time that tight control might be released with bilateral agreements as seen fit. The EU can afford that, considering that its a huge market with trade deals all across the world. Unfortunately I can see the UK being happy with that.
I think the EU’s biggest fear is that the UK will use state aid and subsidies to peal off high-value, high-skill industries.

For example, the UK Film Tax Relief scheme has been hugely successful in incentivising more and more TV and film productions to shoot in the UK. From the FT:

“An estimated £632m in UK tax relief for the creative industries in 2016 led to £3.16bn in production spending on films, TV programmes, animation and video games — a 17 per cent increase on 2015. The industries’ “overall economic contribution” to Britain came to £7.9bn in 2016, which included £2bn in tax revenues.”

The industry has grown by a further 43% since 2016. It is a huge success.

This tax relief was only approved by the European Commission through the loophole of the ‘Cultural Test’ (even though in reality, producers are not only getting tax relief on cuturally British projects, but things such as Star Wars and Indiana Jones). To some extent, the video games industry in the UK has benefited from a similar form of state aid.

I think the EU fears Britain will look at how successful it has been in using state aid and subsidies to boost its creative sector, and may look to try something similar with other industries, once they are no longer constrained by EU state aid rules. This is particular concerning for the EU where the finished product is not a physical good and therefore cannot be punished/protected via tariffs. If the UK sets itself up as the R&D hub of Europe through tax relief for all sorts of scientific, technical and creative projects, it can then sell and license the technology across borders without having to ever manufacture the goods here. Peel off the top of the value chain and leave the EU as the manufacturing and distribution hub...

After all, it doesn’t matter that Apple doesn’t manufacture its products in the US, it matters that it’s research, design and corporate teams are based there.
 

devilish

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I think the EU’s biggest fear is that the UK will use state aid and subsidies to peal off high-value, high-skill industries.

For example, the UK Film Tax Relief scheme has been hugely successful in incentivising more and more TV and film productions to shoot in the UK. From the FT:

“An estimated £632m in UK tax relief for the creative industries in 2016 led to £3.16bn in production spending on films, TV programmes, animation and video games — a 17 per cent increase on 2015. The industries’ “overall economic contribution” to Britain came to £7.9bn in 2016, which included £2bn in tax revenues.”

The industry has grown by a further 43% since 2016. It is a huge success.

This tax relief was only approved by the European Commission through the loophole of the ‘Cultural Test’ (even though in reality, producers are not only getting tax relief on cuturally British projects, but things such as Star Wars and Indiana Jones). To some extent, the video games industry in the UK has benefited from a similar form of state aid.

I think the EU fears Britain will look at how successful it has been in using state aid and subsidies to boost its creative sector, and may look to try something similar with other industries, once they are no longer constrained by EU state aid rules. This is particular concerning for the EU where the finished product is not a physical good and therefore cannot be punished/protected via tariffs. If the UK sets itself up as the R&D hub of Europe through tax relief for all sorts of scientific, technical and creative projects, it can then sell and license the technology across borders without having to ever manufacture the goods here. Peel off the top of the value chain and leave the EU as the manufacturing and distribution hub...

After all, it doesn’t matter that Apple doesn’t manufacture its products in the US, it matters that it’s research, design and corporate teams are based there.
Services can be hit by the EU though and this plan can be exploited by any non EU country. So why isn't the EU afraid of them?

Not to forget that R&D usually attracts a small pool of highly skilled people which is the direct opposite to what the typical brexiteer is.
 
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africanspur

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Services can be hit by the EU though and this plan can be exploited by any non EU country. So why isn't the EU afraid of them?

Not to forget that R&D usually attracts a small pool of highly skilled people which is the direct opposite to what the typical brexiteer is.
I assume for the same reason Barnier, Paul and you have all given before:

The UK is not Canada, USA, China, Japan. It is the UK, located just off the coast of mainland Europe, with a totally different relationship and which is physically part of the continent.

I also think, getting away for a second from stereotypes of a group of people I generally view with great disdain, there is no 'typical brexiteer'. I've met idiots, who couldn't string two sentences together. People fed up with the status quo who wanted to vote to enact change (wrongly of course in my opinion). Owners of businesses who hope they'll see a lot less red tape. Pakistanis and Indians who have worked incredibly hard to come here, jumped through many hoops and were slightly angry/bitter that a Frenchman/German/Italian can just rock up without anything similar (and secretly hoping it would mean more Indians/ Pakistanis here). Racists. People with delusions of grandeur. People who like small government. People who don't like seeing a supranational body influencing what the UK does. People who wanted the EU to just be a trade block. People who just downright dislike the EU. People who wanted more control over immigration.

I agree with pretty much none of what they say (though with some things, I can empathise) but there is no typical person beyond the caricature that some have chosen to build for them.
 

Paul the Wolf

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Its not that simple. Thy can do that/are doing it now. The only thing Brexit will change is tariffs. So take BMW as an example since we mentioned it, they sell/asset transfer to their UK arm who then sells on to consumers. Currently this is free and easy while after Brexit there can be tariffs involved. Only way to get around it completely is to actually have manufacturing in the UK (BMW has a plant in Oxford). I do wonder whether they can assemble the car in Germany, then transfer it to UK as parts (which will invoke lower tariffs) for finishing and class the finished product as UK built...

I'm sure corporations will find ways around taxation. They do it brilliantly already. Its the small and medium business that will suffer, farmers, etc.
If this is what is perceived, there is going to be a really nasty shock in store.