SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Revan]

infetti=infected
dec=deaths

Italy
I created this on excel considering the average daily increase of infected and deaths in Italy

This is what could happen in Italy if there is not a decrease

No human pandemic ever except death plague(s) (and HIV/AIDS but that is spread differently) has had a fatality rate of 1/3. I have no idea how you ended with a fatality rate of 40%, when now it looks to be around 0.65-3.5%.

 

[botond]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Fooza]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

It's scary when you read this. Particularly when the person is the same age as you

 

[Reiver]

I think the UK is actually one of the more likely places for it to happen. If the virus really takes hold and you start restricting people's freedoms at a time they feel most vulnerable, i could definitely see people lashing out.

Me too. This is the country where people called the Police because KFC ran out of chicken. Anything could happen.

 

[langster]

No human pandemic ever except death plague(s) (and HIV/AIDS but that is spread differently) has had a fatality rate of 1/3. I have no idea how you ended with a fatality rate of 40%, when now it looks to be around 0.65-3.5%.

Exactly.

40% ffs. That's more deadly than the worst hantaviruses.

This is what I mean. The bullshit and scaremongering is out of control..

 

[botond]

It's scary when you read this. Particularly when the person is the same age as you

yeah , lets see the just the flu bro gangs take on this

 

[Utdstar01]

yeah , lets see the just the flu bro gangs take on this

Are we Flu in or Flu out?

 

[GeorgieBoy]

Germany confirmed over 1,000 cases but has not yet reported any deaths?

 

[Prometheus]

Can you show me a post that supports your claim?

Not a post, but there were medical professionals/former government officials in the media saying it's good in that will free up hospital beds.

 

[Arruda]

Avoid focusing too much on "single case" stories (unless you are in a position to help or understand of course).

Medicine is grim in the best of days. At least 30% of Medical students go through a short but strong period of hypochondria when they jump from basic sciences to clinical sciences. It is called "Medical Student Disease" and you can just google it. I went through it and was terrible. I wrongly self-diagnosed myself with cancer due to an enlarged supra-clavicular lymph node, among other more extreme and hilariously rare diseases.

It is short because it is our job and we quickly understand it and learn to see it more realistically, intuitively understand things like odds ratios, level of evidence, etc, and a bunch of other tools which take time to learn.


You don't need to go crazy over this.

 

[Dante]

Not a post, but there were medical professionals/former government officials in the media saying it's good in that will free up hospital beds.

She says that the existence of a pandemic would force the government to spend more on the NHS. Not that she wants people to catch anything. She's a campaigner for care for the elderly.

I suspect most people would be looking at this pandemic and want the government to increase spending on the NHS.

 

[Grinner]

This talk about only old people in trouble, Italian patient one was a 38 YO marathon runner who had to be admitted to hospital with breathing difficulties.

 

[Simbo]

This talk about only old people in trouble, Italian patient one was a 38 YO marathon runner who had to be admitted to hospital with breathing difficulties.

The 0.2% OF 30-40 year old deaths has to be made up of somebody...

 

[17 Van der Gouw]

There will always be outliers.

In the early statistics, it was said that something like 0.2% of Covid-19 patients in the 25-39 age group have died.

Somebody has to be behind those statistics.

So when you hear about a healthy 35 year old getting respiratory failure and dying, it's not a cause for alarm or a tabloid style "CORONAVIRUS IS KILLING HEALTHY YOUNG PEOPLE".

 

[17 Van der Gouw]

The 0.2% OF 30-40 year old deaths has to be made up of somebody...

Damn. Your post beat mine to it.

 

[Acole9]

Some of the hysteria on here is unreal, as bad as the sensationalism on the news about this. All the panic buying of toilet paper.

 

[Grinner]

There will always be outliers.

In the early statistics, it was said that something like 0.2% of Covid-19 patients in the 25-39 age group have died.

Somebody has to be behind those statistics.

So when you hear about a healthy 35 year old getting respiratory failure and dying, it's not a cause for alarm or a tabloid style "CORONAVIRUS IS KILLING HEALTHY YOUNG PEOPLE".

I don't mean to panic, but it means that nobody is really safe. Statistically it's better to be young, but if you are the 0,2% then stats don't mean shit. What I'm saying is that it's foolish to be so flippant about the virus.

 

[17 Van der Gouw]

I don't mean to panic, but it means that nobody is really safe. Statistically it's better to be young, but if you are the 0,2% then stats don't mean shit. What I'm saying is that it's foolish to be so flippant about the virus.

I agree. 0.2% or 1/500. I'm in that age group and it's a lottery I'd rather not play.

 

[Dante]

Some of the hysteria on here is unreal, as bad as the sensationalism on the news about this. All the panic buying of toilet paper.

Imagine being lucky enough to avoid covid-19 only to get the shits.

 

[Charlie Foley]

Avoid focusing too much on "single case" stories (unless you are in a position to help or understand of course).

Medicine is grim in the best of days. At least 30% of Medical students go through a short but strong period of hypochondria when they jump from basic sciences to clinical sciences. It is called "Medical Student Disease" and you can just google it. I went through it and was terrible. I wrongly self-diagnosed myself with cancer due to an enlarged supra-clavicular lymph node, among other more extreme and hilariously rare diseases.

It is short because it is our job and we quickly understand it and learn to see it more realistically, intuitively understand things like odds ratios, level of evidence, etc, and a bunch of other tools which take time to learn.


You don't need to go crazy over this.

I am guessing from the tone of this you have settled down a bit? Hope you’re keeping well!

this post reminded me of a time my mate from school texted our WhatsApp group (there are a few doctors in there) asking what some super rare disease was because he had been googling symptoms. Accompanied by a stream of laughing emojis and “you don’t have it”.

 

[adexkola]

Avoid focusing too much on "single case" stories (unless you are in a position to help or understand of course).

Medicine is grim in the best of days. At least 30% of Medical students go through a short but strong period of hypochondria when they jump from basic sciences to clinical sciences. It is called "Medical Student Disease" and you can just google it. I went through it and was terrible. I wrongly self-diagnosed myself with cancer due to an enlarged supra-clavicular lymph node, among other more extreme and hilariously rare diseases.

It is short because it is our job and we quickly understand it and learn to see it more realistically, intuitively understand things like odds ratios, level of evidence, etc, and a bunch of other tools which take time to learn.


You don't need to go crazy over this.

I mean why the feck would I? Not taking the situation light and definitely taking extra care to wash hands and stuff, but otherwise what can the average person do?

 

[Arruda]

I am guessing from the tone of this you have settled down a bit? Hope you’re keeping well!

I have been a lot better, thank you, it was a period of understanding, etc. Meanwhile as things go on I keep watching more positive things and am hopefully this will be dealt with reasonably well.

As it goes now I see a few positive signs, and am entering a phase of preparing to go to work in a few weeks rather than looking too much into politics, information etc.

People are becoming increasingly aware. Smart people are looking into this, a few took their time but they are gaining ground and taking the reins because they know they have to.

On my social media I see a lot less quackery than expected I see a lot of idiots being called upon and shut down by common folk, I see the President that acted as a fool on Monday release a brilliant statement today, etc.

 

[Arruda]

I mean why the feck would I? Not taking the situation light and definitely taking extra care to wash hands and stuff, but otherwise what can the average person do?

Exactly.

It was random advice and a personal anecdote, not specifically adressed to anyone.

 

[Rhyme Animal]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Terrifying, utterly terrifying.

And I'm sorry if that makes me a 'Doom-monger' etc, but as someone with Asthma and a young family that is just so fecking scary.

This is horrible.

 

[Carolina Red]

Well, we are up to 6 cases in South Carolina now, with 1 of them in my city. [fist pump baby meme]

 

[botond]

Note this was in 2012 , try to find recent numbers

 

[Revan]

Exactly.

40% ffs. That's more deadly than the worst hantaviruses.

This is what I mean. The bullshit and scaremongering is out of control..

Don’t get me wrong, his predicted total number of deaths might be actually underestimated. However, from all accounts this would be a flu/cold-like (but with a much higher mortality rate) disease that will affect many/most people with a low fatality rate, rather than the death sentence (but not very contagious) sonny calculated.

 

[christy87]

What is the deal with toilet paper and covid19 why the panic

 

[Dancfc]

I don't mean to panic, but it means that nobody is really safe. Statistically it's better to be young, but if you are the 0,2% then stats don't mean shit. What I'm saying is that it's foolish to be so flippant about the virus.

I agree. 0.2% or 1/500. I'm in that age group and it's a lottery I'd rather not play.

I think if you haven't been to China then 0.2% significantly reduces to the point you're more likely to win the lottery then die through Cov19.

Even in Wuhan, where the virus ran riot unnoticed for a whole month minimum only 1 out of every 106 residents caught it.

Yes it's a problem and yes precautions must be taken, but unless I get symptoms or where I live/visit gets a massive outbreak I am basically carrying on as normal.

 

[adexkola]

Exactly.

It was random advice and a personal anecdote, not specifically adressed to anyone.

Right didn't mean that as a direct reply to you, my fault.

Governments around the world need to be more urgent regarding their response but is there any value in the average citizen panicking about it (beyond taking extra precautions)? And I think a lot of people confuse that with nonchalance.

 

[Ian Reus]

7 in Peru including a 7 year old in a posh school.

I expect it to explode here in a few weeks with 12 million people juggling for space in as big a city as it is.

I'm self quarantined from today and have advised her parents too. Grocery delivery tomorrow. I'll miss my Spanish lessons in the street markets though.

 

[botond]

I think if you haven't been to China then 0.2% significantly reduces to the point you're more likely to win the lottery then die through Cov19.

Even in Wuhan, where the virus ran riot unnoticed for a whole month minimum only 1 out of every 106 residents caught it.

Yes it's a problem and yes precautions must be taken, but unless I get symptoms or where I live/visit gets a massive outbreak I am basically carrying on as normal.

i would not bet my and my families health on those China numbers . also they build hospitals in 5 days and welded people inside their apartments .

 

[17 Van der Gouw]

What is the deal with toilet paper and covid19 why the panic

People are worried that they'll be stuck at home for weeks or months, either through self isolation or fear of catching the disease if they go out. So they're stocking up. It's madness really.

I'm kinda resigned to the fact that if there's a national toilet paper shortage, I'll be getting resourceful with tabloid newspapers and a hot shower.

 

[17 Van der Gouw]

i would not bet my and my families health on those China numbers . also they build hospitals in 5 days and welded people inside their apartments .

Yes but before the welding shut the apartments, Wuhan was 'open season' for the virus, it went unchecked there for several weeks, and still; the vast majority didn't catch it.

 

[langster]

Nearly half the world don't use toilet paper anyway so I'm sure we can do without for a while. If not then Sports Direct have Liverpool shirts on offer atm. I will just buy loads of those and cut them in to wipe size pieces.

I might even drink some sour milk and orange juice just to accelerate the process.

 

[Dumbstar]

Are we Flu in or Flu out?

One flu over the cuckoo's nest judging by this thread.

 

[17 Van der Gouw]

Terrifying, utterly terrifying.

And I'm sorry if that makes me a 'Doom-monger' etc, but as someone with Asthma and a young family that is just so fecking scary.

This is horrible.

Yeah I feel that man, I really do. I know it's not much of a reassurance, but try to remember that even if it big time exploded and we saw 100k cases in the UK - that still only be 0.16% of the population, one in every 700 people, you'd still be hugely unlucky go get it. By that time, we'd see mass (whole city) quarantines, schools, gatherings and many jobs cancelled, and hopefully waiting on one of the many antiviral drugs that are about to be tested out.

Both a vaccine and a decent anti-viral treatment are almost inevitable at this point.

 

[Charlie Foley]

Nearly half the world don't use toilet paper anyway so I'm sure we can do without for a while. If not then Sports Direct have Liverpool shirts on offer atm. I will just buy loads of those and cut them in to wipe size pieces.

I might even drink some sour milk and orange juice just to accelerate the process.

 

[Prometheus]

What is the deal with toilet paper and covid19 why the panic

I wondered the same. It was hilarious reading a behavioural scientist's explanation.

Dr Tsivrikos explained the difference between disaster panic and general panic, with toilet paper becoming a symbol of the latter.

He said that because toilet paper has a longer shelf-life than many food items, is prominently featured in aisles and is big in size, we are psychologically drawn to purchasing it in times of crisis.

He said: "The bigger they are, the more important we think they are.

"If we had an international sign for panic it would be a traffic warning sign with a toilet paper roll in the middle."

 

[botond]

I mean why the feck would I? Not taking the situation light and definitely taking extra care to wash hands and stuff, but otherwise what can the average person do?

make sure you dont get it at the peak