SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Lynty]

Yeah I think that's obvious. The UK and US are both taking the same approach in that regard.

They don't have the capacity to test everyone. Even at ten thousand tests per day they won't have the capacity to test everyone with symptoms.

They're switching their focus to the point where you might be hospitalised or need home support. The assumption is that it's still rare in the general population (even at the 5000/10000 estimate that's still one in ten thousand) but that it will become common in the group that need hospital support.

They're still (I believe) doing random testing of people with symptoms (and no foreign travel) in some areas but that's for the statisticians/epidemiologists to get data on where we're at on that curve.

Yes I knew it was coming, perhaps not this soon though. Which makes you wonder how inaccurate the Chinese and Italian figures are.

Makes you wonder how many people are also going to take 2 weeks off work to self isolate for something like a common cold.

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

It's not really Boris' plan though. It's Professor Vallance at the wheel, and I trust him. The virus has not yet started to peak here, if we start shutting down the country now, we could do more harm than good. Any drastic measures need to be at the right time.

Watch from about 34 minutes -

This guy speaks sense. I'm not sure I trust Boris either, but the two scientists speaking on behalf of the government - I buy them absolutely.

Yes but it’s fcuking bullshit isn’t it. Schools, Pubs and Restaurants.... sure. If they are delayed due to being tied to the economy, fine. It’s insane. But if data suggests you have time, use it.

But anything here;

- Churches/Mosques/All religious gathering spaces
- Amateur sports teams
- Leisure centres
- Youth Clubs

Close them immediately. Close them for months. It’s zero cost beyond complaint.

Closing those things (and anything like them) is a no brainer. It doesn’t have to be everything at the same time. If anything, that’s less desirable.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

So they're now saying that 70% will only get mild cold like symptoms? I'd guess that would make the death rate a lot lower given that most would ignore it. I wonder if I've had it this past week because my mum has been pretty ill and with a cough and I think I caught that from her but with milder symptoms. 111 told my mum she was fine and just had a cold but she was pretty run down.

 

[11101]

That’s not the case here.

I'm talking about Italy. Banning group gatherings and schools didnt make the slightest difference. The only thing that has worked in any area that has brought it under control is almost total lockdown.

 

[ArmandTamzarian]

4000 people died in the states during the H1N1 pandemic under Obama. I would bet a large sum of money Trump is desperate to keep the US death numbers (artificially) lower than this cos he's a petty insecure cnut who's obsessed with Obama.

 

[Grinner]

Is there much point to lots of random testing? We know it's here and spreading now. Easier to just to take temperature readings perhaps?

 

[Drawfull]

4000 people died in the states during the H1N1 pandemic under Obama. I would be a large sum of money Trump is desperate to keep the US death numbers (artificially) lower than this cos he's a petty insecure cnut who's obsessed with Obama.

Even optimistic estimates mean that hundreds of thousands, potentially millions, are going to die in the US. He isn't going to be able to cover it up.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

4000 people died in the states during the H1N1 pandemic under Obama. I would be a large sum of money Trump is desperate to keep the US death numbers (artificially) lower than this cos he's a petty insecure cnut who's obsessed with Obama.

Trump's psychological makeup aside, no democratic government has any interest whatsoever in mismanaging this crisis. It will sink governments and political careers. Only poor infrastructure, bad decisions and ineptitude will cause suboptimal outcomes.

 

[Fiskey]

Is there much point to lots of random testing? We know it's here and spreading now. Easier to just to take temperature readings perhaps?

No, the numbers are probably already too crazy for a testing regime to work or give us interesting information.

 

[jojojo]

Makes you wonder how many people are also going to take 2 weeks off work to self isolate for something like a common cold

A lot, if people pay attention. Even if the "I've got a bit of a cough/cold and I'm taking a lemsip" group is only 1% of the working population at any given time in a typical winter - and I reckon it's more than that - it's a lot of people.

Will people do it? Well that's the advice now, so the next step is to get employers and co-workers to enforce it. It's a mindset change for most people, brought up on "toughing it out" but (like handwashing) it's pretty key to not passing it on to the more vulnerable.

 

[Grinner]

I played badminton last night at Peter May Sports Centre which is where the Arsenal youth academy is based. If the club is infected then it's likely there too.

 

[Rajma]

So far we had 3 confirmed cases in Lithuania, however, the first person to contract it is still in the hospital (symptoms have faded away now) but after two weeks she's still testing positive, which is scary given she no longer has any symptoms.

 

[ArmandTamzarian]

Even optimistic estimates mean that potentially millions are going to die. He isn't going to be able to cover it up.

Oh I know, but he's a stupid narcissistic & conceited feck who not only doesn't listen to people who know better but thinks he know more than them and I'd bet that's the bar he's set on wether or not he can act all smug. When it eventually does surpass that number hell move the goalposts anyway.

 

[RoadTrip]

So far we had 3 confirmed cases in Lithuania, however, the first person to contract it is still in the hospital (symptoms have faded away now) but after two weeks she's still testing positive, which is scary given she no longer has any symptoms.

I guess testing positive doesn’t inherently mean still contagious? But I could be wrong.

 

[11101]

Yes I knew it was coming, perhaps not this soon though. Which makes you wonder how inaccurate the Chinese and Italian figures are.

Purposely inaccurate.

Italy started off testing literally everybody in the original outbreak area and were finding 50% of the positives were coming from people with no symptoms. They stopped that at the end of February a) because they couldn't keep up once the outbreak grew and b) it was making them look so bad when nobody else in Europe was testing anywhere near that level. Now they only report cases where there are symptoms - so you can probably double the Italian cases figures, or even quadruple them if you consider many people with the virus will slip under the radar.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Just got this from surgeon friend.

XXXXX update: its about to get real. Anaesthesia/ED/ENT front line. We are moving to tight rota, single site with substitute cover if one of us gets a positive diagnosis. Shutting down my private practice now until resolution. Hopefully our health worker stats will be a bit better than the Italians-50% got it, 10% tubed, of whom 50% died! Everyone be safe but the world will be a different place after this....

I don’t think enough people appreciate the absolute heroes on the front lines.

 

[Grinner]

Health workers are going to get infected too. Massive stress/PTSD likely from making hard decisions. Isolation from their own families. They are amazing.

 

[Pexbo]

Just got this from surgeon friend.



I don’t think enough people appreciate the absolute heroes on the front lines.

Is there any evidence that the mutation of viruses causes diversity in culture to the point where being continually exposed to a wide variety of infected people over a period of time could see a single person be continually infected with strains which are resistant to the natural immunity developed against other strains?

Sorry a bit of a word salad but hopefully obvious enough what I am trying to ask.

 

[SalfordRed18]

Going Wales today on a coach. Then supposed to be going to the rugby tomorrow, but I can't see myself doing that to be honest.

 

[jojojo]

Is there much point to lots of random testing? We know it's here and spreading now. Easier to just to take temperature readings perhaps?

Testing is quite labour/resource intensive so it's easier to assume it's a possibility - the same way doctors assume other diseases are a possibility.

The main advantage of testing is to decide treatment path for the ones who need medical intervention.

The exceptions are going to be in places like care homes, where a single case has implications for the whole location.

The other testing issue is related to seeing where we're sat on that curve. That's more about taking a statistical sampling approach though, rather than genuine screening.

 

[Grinner]

Testing is quite labour/resource intensive so it's easier to assume it's a possibility - the same way doctors assume other diseases are a possibility.

The main advantage of testing is to decide treatment path for the ones who need medical intervention.

The exceptions are going to be in places like care homes, where a single case has implications for the whole location.

The other testing issue is related to seeing where we're sat on that curve. That's more about taking a statistical sampling approach though, rather than genuine screening.

Seems like a waste of resources. Better to test those with obvious symptoms rather than those who may have been in contact with a spreader.

 

[Arruda]

@Arruda

My word.

 

[balaks]

Just got this from surgeon friend.



I don’t think enough people appreciate the absolute heroes on the front lines.

That is fecking scary shit.

 

[BD]

Have any countries in Europe stopped flights coming in? I know some airlines have cancelled flights that are going to/from Italy, but have any countries or airports taken measures?

 

[TMDaines]

Yes but it’s fcuking bullshit isn’t it. Schools, Pubs and Restaurants.... sure. If they are delayed due to being tied to the economy, fine. It’s insane. But if data suggests you have time, use it.

But anything here;

- Churches/Mosques/All religious gathering spaces
- Amateur sports teams
- Leisure centres
- Youth Clubs

Close them immediately. Close them for months. It’s zero cost beyond complaint.

Closing those things (and anything like them) is a no brainer. It doesn’t have to be everything at the same time. If anything, that’s less desirable.

It’s not zero cost at all. What do you do for living out of interest? We invest in these things either publicly as private citizens because there is a massive benefit to them for individuals and society.

Are you genuinely not aware of the benefits of living an active lifestyle? That has greater benefit to your health than any drug you could take.

 

[TMDaines]

A lot, if people pay attention. Even if the "I've got a bit of a cough/cold and I'm taking a lemsip" group is only 1% of the working population at any given time in a typical winter - and I reckon it's more than that - it's a lot of people.

Will people do it? Well that's the advice now, so the next step is to get employers and co-workers to enforce it. It's a mindset change for most people, brought up on "toughing it out" but (like handwashing) it's pretty key to not passing it on to the more vulnerable.

I’ve already insisted on a member of staff I manage not coming in the office next week. Peer pressure will be massive.

 

[justboy68]

Really wishing the best for all the brave nurses, doctors and medical staff around Europe at this time. It's about to kick off in a big way.

When this was breaking in Wuhan, there were similar scenes of medical personnal being called up from around China on the eve of the Spring Festival. Having to leave their families to head right into the belly of the beast. It was honestly gut wrenching to see. Brings tears to your eyes but restores your hope in humanity at the same time.

 

[Infra-red]

Having re-read the transcript of Johnson's press conference yesterday, you have to say that this a bold move. I have seen many describe it as a gamble, but what it really is, is a trade.

The Government are clearly happy for there to be a very high infection rate and they want this entire ordeal to be over with, quickly. There are two benefits to that: firstly, you minimise the economic impact that would inevitably occur with the prolonged use of highly-restrictive quarantine measures. Secondly, you quickly build up some measure of immunity in the population, making them more resistant to a second wave next winter. The price of those benefits, is a much higher death rate. That's the trade.

To put the Government's numbers in some context, Sir Patrick Vallance said that 50% of the total infections that will occur, will occur three or four weeks either side of the peak (which, on Government estimates, will be mid-June). The upper threshold for total infections in the Government's scenario modelling, is 80% of the population becoming infected. That means that some 40% of the total UK population could be infected with Covid-19 during the six week period from late May to early July - that is 26 million people.

If the Chinese CDC numbers prove accurate, then we can expect 14% of those people to require hospital treatment of some sort and 8% of them to require intensive care - that is 2 million people that will require an ICU bed for critical life-saving treatment in the month of June. The UK has a total of 4,000 ICU beds (which are already 80% full). June, according to the Government's own numbers, is going to be absolutely horrific. In terms of casualties, we're essentially talking the opening day of the Battle of the Somme, every day, for more than a month. I can scarcely imagine the absolute hell that awaits NHS critical care doctors this summer.

 

[Grinner]

What exactly is the treatment for patients in hospitals? Is it just care or skilled medical procedures like intubation? Can volunteers be called for from the population?

 

[11101]

Just got this from surgeon friend.

I don’t think enough people appreciate the absolute heroes on the front lines.

I don't think that's quite right. The figure was 10% of health workers getting it last time the government announced anything.

There are Gofund me type pages being set up all over the country for the hospitals and health workers, the page for my local ICU is up to 200k already.

 

[Sweet Square]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[nickm]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[nickm]

Having re-read the transcript of Johnson's press conference yesterday, you have to say that this a bold move. I have seen many describe it as a gamble, but what it really is, is a trade.

The Government are clearly happy for there to be a very high infection rate and they want this entire ordeal to be over with, quickly. There are two benefits to that: firstly, you minimise the economic impact that would inevitably occur with the prolonged use of highly-restrictive quarantine measures. Secondly, you quickly build up some measure of immunity in the population, making them more resistant to a second wave next winter. The price of those benefits, is a much higher death rate. That's the trade.

To put the Government's numbers in some context, Sir Patrick Vallance said that 50% of the total infections that will occur, will occur three or four weeks either side of the peak (which, on Government estimates, will be mid-June). The upper threshold for total infections in the Government's scenario modelling, is 80% of the population becoming infected. That means that some 40% of the total UK population could be infected with Covid-19 during the six week period from late May to early July - that is 26 million people.

If the Chinese CDC numbers prove accurate, then we can expect 14% of those people to require hospital treatment of some sort and 8% of them to require intensive care - that is 2 million people that will require an ICU bed for critical life-saving treatment in the month of June. The UK has a total of 4,000 ICU beds (which are already 80% full). June, according to the Government's own numbers, is going to be absolutely horrific. In terms of casualties, we're essentially talking the opening day of the Battle of the Somme, every day, for more than a month. I can scarcely imagine the absolute hell that awaits NHS critical care doctors this summer.

Interesting explanation of the government's strategy here:

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Jacko21]

What exactly is the treatment for patients in hospitals? Is it just care or skilled medical procedures like intubation? Can volunteers be called for from the population?

Essentially about relieving the symptoms whilst your body fights the illness. Oxygen therapy being one way - as breathing difficulties are a symptom.

 

[Organic Potatoes]

What exactly is the treatment for patients in hospitals? Is it just care or skilled medical procedures like intubation? Can volunteers be called for from the population?

You can’t even be called upon to wash dishes in a restaurant here without proper licensing.

I doubt there’s enough certified nurses or caregivers on standby to alleviate a surge in demand in hospitals, if that’s what you’re asking.

 

[Fully Fledged]

Maybe everyone should have their own individual thread, just to be safe

And each thread should be a metre apart.

 

[Sarni]

My wife's cousin works and lives in Germany, he started to get symptoms two weeks ago so he returned to Poland without doing any tests. He started feeling better so he went back to Germany to work, but then he fell ill and cannot get out of bed anymore. What they've done now, is that his father and brother got into a car and drove over to Germany to pick him up and bring him back to Poland to treat him at home with chicken soup and tea. People are fecking morons. We are never going to contain this, it's just about slowing it down now.

 

[Jacko21]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Government ought to get used to being fecked of with Newsnight now that Goodall is the new editor.

 

[CassiusClaymore]

I know we've got folk here in Italy already but I messaged a friend in Milan last night for an update and this is what he said...

Hi, we are fine at the moment. The situation is surreal here in Milan, everything is closed, desert streets, it's forbidden to go outside. You can only go to work, if you are a doctor or a nurse or a financial advisor but other than buy some food you can do absolutely nothing. Here in Lombardy the situation is messed up, hospitals are full, the number of deaths is rising but thats not the big problem. Intensive care units are almost completely full so if we have an acciddent or a stroke the risk of dying is really high. Many people have only mild simptoms, they are not even controlled with tests and that's why we have a lethality percentage much higher than the rest of the world. Plus many deads are elderly people (avg 81 years old) with other pathologies. But we are a bit worried, and we hope that everything will be ok soon. Try to avoid social contacts, i hope not, but i think that covid 19 will spread everywhere., so be cautious. Try to protect your partner and tell everyone di stay at home. That's the only way to avoid problems

I think people often focus entirely on the virus and overlook the bolded part. It won't just be deaths from Covid19 itself but the all the stuff that people can't get treated for due to Hospitals been overwhelmed.

 

[Grinner]

You can’t even be called upon to wash dishes in a restaurant here without proper licensing.

I doubt there’s enough certified nurses or caregivers on standby to alleviate a surge in demand in hospitals, if that’s what you’re asking.

Just wondering if those who have had it and get better can do anything to help alleviate the workload