SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Amar__]

Yeah I agree actually.

But I feel that the calmness, or sense of feeling somewhat reassured within the young(ish) is revealing some as borderline Eugenic fanbois.

The older Generations within this country (and everywhere) deserve so much better than this.

Imagine being over 70 and listening to these 'strategies'... or being over 70 and reading through a lot of this thread. They, rightly, must be becoming absolutely terrified.

I guess my point was, of course we all hope first and foremost that we are ok ourselves. But the vulnerable need and deserve to be protected by this revolting approach by the Government and their shithouse, Tory-boy followers.

I am not from UK, but I agree, your point should stand for other countries too.

As a neutral, I actually find this UK plan sickening and very selfish. It's actually not even a plan, they change their approach every day from what I have seen, and later describe it as some risky plan that they are taking. But anyway they are risking the lives of many people because they didn't react on time. I seriously doubt they are doing it on purpose, otherwise I am sure they would still allow public events such as football games where teams that aren't already affected will play, but they realised it's dangerous after all. I mean, just few days ago they let Liverpool and others play with full stadium despite knowing what will happen, I think they just hoped it won't spread more than anything else.

 

[Dante]

China has had around 90,000 cases 3000+ deaths from 1.45 billion people. Why are people thinking its going to infect 60-70% of the worlds population? That would be around 90% of everyone else who is not in china. What evidence is there for this assumption?

I am surprised people aren't using the data of China for predicting likely effects elsewhere as they are 1-2 months ahead of everyone else. They are also the worst place affected in terms of growth rate, raw numbers etc never mind the fact that we have all be forewarned by them so if anything I would expect every other countries to fair better. What am I missing here?

China's infection rate will skyrocket again when they lift the lockdown. Covid-19 is too infectious corner into isolated pockets and eradicate.

They might get rid of the infection in places, but it'll boomerang back from somewhere else in the world.

It's already got from China to Rwanda. There'll be nothing to stop it from getting back in a few months' time.

 

[nickm]

Expert comment about herd Immunity.

 

[Dante]

650 square foot.

One bathroom.

I've told you this, that is the average UK house.

Do you think that those measures are practical given the reality of how most people live?

Because if it isn't, then the advice is not really helpful is it?


I'm still waiting for that one incident of herd immunity being developed without vaccine by the way.

Just one.

It's either self isolate at home or go to hospital.

The first anti-vaxxers didn't get mumps. But as herd immunity dropped, they did.

 

[Sweet Square]

650 square foot.

One bathroom.

I've told you this, that is the average UK house.

Do you think that those measures are practical given the reality of how most people live?

Because if it isn't, then the advice is not really helpful is it?

Yeah but Mr Mogg and his tory pals will be fine

 

[TMDaines]

We've stopped testing anyone that isn't already in hospital with the symptoms of it.

And they are telling us not to even call 111 or notify anyone if we are at home ill.

It is therefore unsurprising that the numbers look good.

This is disingenuous in the extreme.

You get figures by sampling, not by testing everyone. We don’t need to know the exact figure, we just need ranges with 95% certainty.

 

[nickm]

Apologies for insulting your Tory masters.

Press ignore if my 'lefty humanitarian ranting' bothers you so. I'll be doing the same to you.

Shouting eugenics doesn't make you a humanitarian, or right. It just makes you look dumb.

 

[Nogbadthebad]

It's either self isolate at home or go to hospital.

The first anti-vaxxers didn't get mumps. But as herd immunity dropped, they did.

Yes. Because we had a vaccine that provided heard immunity.

Try again.

One virus where we developed heard immunity naturally without a vaccine.

It shouldn't be hard. I don;t mean just the UK.

I'm talking anywhere, any humans.

 

[Sweet Square]

Can anyone answer this please ?

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[Rajma]

Again.

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Again.

I’ve read that and most arguments are not convincing to say the least. I specifically said if you go for schools etc. closure you go for a total lockdown as well (which UK is not prepared to do). Otherwise, I defeats the purpose of isolation as children and all the rest of the people would still interact outside a lot (as pointed out by the link you gave).

 

[Nogbadthebad]

You get figures by sampling, not by testing everyone. We don’t need to know the exact figure, we just need ranges with 95% certainty.

If 80% are getting it with 'mild' symptoms and self isolating at home, and are being told not to even report they are ill, how exactly do you think you are getting 95% certainty?

 

[Dante]

Yes. Because we had a vaccine that provided heard immunity.

Try again.

One virus where we developed heard immunity naturally without a vaccine.

It shouldn't be hard. I don;t mean just the UK.

I'm talking anywhere, any humans.

Vaccines work the same way as catching then recovering from a disease.

Diseases that are isolated by herd immunity disappear from the face of the earth. If you want examples, every single disease that ever died out.

 

[Rhyme Animal]

Shouting eugenics doesn't make you a humanitarian, or right. It just makes you look dumb.

I'm fine with that.

I care more about innocent, vulnerable people being chucked under the bus to save the Torys a few quid than I do about looking smart on a messageboard.

We'll agree to disagree, best of luck to you mate.

 

[Dante]

If 80% are getting it with 'mild' symptoms and self isolating at home, and are being told not to even report they are ill, how exactly do you think you are getting 95% certainty?

Statistics.

 

[DFreshKing]

China's infection rate will skyrocket again when they lift the lockdown. Covid-19 is too infectious corner into isolated pockets and eradicate.

They might get rid of the infection in places, but it'll boomerang back from somewhere else in the world.

It's already got from China to Rwanda. There'll be nothing to stop it from getting back in a few months' time.

That's a pure guess. Evidence is they controlled it quickly and have had hardly any new cases for over a week now.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

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This thread is good explanation of UK strategy. Risky as feck but there is a certain logic to it. The biggest problem will be testing. Without that it all falls apart.

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This is my question on the WHO approved method. What happens to economies if we go into a cycle of complete shutdowns for 18 months whilst we wait for a vaccine? This will result in mass business closures and mass job losses. This will have a massive societal impact and cause significant social unrest that I just don't think the WHO's singular vision has any comprehension of. They are not in the business of running economies and societies.

You could view the UK approach as utilitarian in that its seeking to protect the society as a whole whilst accepting that loss of life cannot be avoided and is a trade off for that. Of course this is unpalatable for many but the alternative could reap much worse consequences e.g. mass poverty, social unrest and governments becoming more authoritarian to maintain control.

 

[JPRouve]

Didn't the WHO say that Covid-19 is less contagious than other viruses? I'm sure they also stated that it wasn't asymptomatic - something I think the experts in the UK also discovered.

They don't know how contagious it is but we seem to know that it is during the first symptomatic days that you are the most contagious, there are also cases of asymptomatic infected, here you have a report on the CDC about a case in China, it was also mentioned by the medical team at Montpellier. You can also read page 11 of that report from WHO.

Symptoms of COVID-19 are non-specific and the disease presentation can range from no symptoms (asymptomatic) to severe pneumonia and death.

And to not be misleading, it is a minority that is totally asymptomatic, it seems that even currently asymptomatic patients eventually develop some symptoms but again since they are not specific to Covid-19, it's very difficult to precisely spot cases without testing due to latency and the fact that it's not that remarkable.

 

[Dante]

That's a pure guess. Evidence is they controlled it quickly and have had hardly any new cases for over a week now.

They're still in social and economic lockdown. That's not sustainable.

It's guess work to an extent. But we know that the virus spreads in the absence of a lockdown, so in other ways it's empirical.

 

[Nogbadthebad]

Statistics.

Maybe learn what that word means.

If you are ignoring 80% of cases on purpose, you cannot have an accurate understanding of the situation. It is the antithesis of a statistical approach.

 

[Dante]

Maybe learn what that word means.

If you are ignoring 80% of cases on purpose, you cannot have an accurate understanding of the situation. It is the antithesis of a statistical approach.

If I responded to this properly, it would only embarrass you. For your sake, I won't.

Maybe look up 'confidence' in a statistics textbook.

 

[Nogbadthebad]

Vaccines work the same way as catching then recovering from a disease.

Diseases that are isolated by herd immunity disappear from the face of the earth. If you want examples, every single disease that ever died out.

This is just laughable.

We don't develop herd immunity to these kinds of viruses.

That is why it took a vaccine to eliminate polio, rubella and so on. Why we need flu jabs every year.

We tried just letting people get all of those things. We kept dying, because we don't develop antibodies.

People are getting coronavirus more than once. This is why.

 

[TMDaines]

Have any of you ever heard of Polio?

We don't get that any more in this country. Many did, and many died.

Today we have herd immunity. You know how we got it? A vaccine.

When left to its own devices, it just killed people, repeatedly.

For all the medical experts telling us that the government are absolutely right, give me a reason.

Cite ONE single incidence where in the case of a mutating virus humans have built a natural immunity.

I mean, you keep telling me you know that this is the right approach, so you must have some reason to believe it.

One, in human history where without a vaccine we naturally developed a resistance to a virus like this.

I'll wait.

Polio has an R0 of 5-7 and a mortality rate of 5-15%. COVID-19 is not close to those in either sense.

If a new Polio, with a similar R0 and mortality rate that we had no immunity to, and it got this far, we’d be fecked anyway.

 

[Port Vale Devil]

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[Nogbadthebad]

Polio has an R0 of 5-7 and a mortality rate of 5-15%. COVID-19 is not close to those in either sense.

If a new Polio, with a similar R0 and mortality rate that we had no immunity to, and it got this far, we’d be fecked anyway.

So answer the question.

Tell me, which similar, mutating virus have we developed herd immunity to, without using a vaccine.

 

[Rajma]

Expert comment about herd Immunity.

Key sentence.

.“SARS-CoV-2 is a novel virus in humans and there is still much that we need to learn about how it affects the human immune system. Because it is so new, we do not yet know how long any protection generated through infection will last.

@Dante, can you now understand how irresponsible this approach is at this time?

 

[Ubik]

Expert comment about herd Immunity.

Thanks for this, I'd quite like to have a thread focused on what actual experts are saying so I can ignore most of the squabbling.

This in particular puts it in a way I hadn't considered, and the government should be trying harder to communicate. We need massive behavioural change for a significant time to come.

But it doesn’t have to be – and it won’t be – this way. By reducing the number of people that one person infects, on average, then we lower the point at which herd immunity kicks in. If we reduce it to 1.3, COVID19 becomes more like flu, and herd immunity kicks in when about one quarter of the population has had the disease and is now immune. So, from an epidemiological point of view, the trick is to reduce the number of people we are in contact with (by staying more at home), and reduce the chance of transmission to those we are in contact with (by frequent hand washing) so that we can drive down the number of contacts we infect, and herd immunity starts earlier. The sweet spot comes at the point where one infected person infects one, or less than one, person on average. But, importantly, we will need to sustain this until we have a vaccine: only at that point can we return to normal behaviour patterns, with herd immunity now achieved by vaccination, not disease.”

 

[Di Maria's angel]

You've come across, endlessly, as someone who cares deeply about the right thing being done.

And you've shown integrity throughout this whole thing.

You're the kind of person I'd want in charge of caring for vulnerable people - and I really mean that.

Not sure what your job is, but if you don't already, you should think seriously about working within charity or working with vulnerable people.

Indeed, maybe this crisis will help many people realize their true calling.

Thanks, dude. Before my current job, I was meant to work with Alzheimer's patients but now I'm in the IT industry.

 

[DFreshKing]

They're still in social and economic lockdown. That's not sustainable.

It's guess work to an extent. But we know that the virus spreads in the absence of a lockdown, so in other ways it's empirical.

There are not going flick a switch though are they? They will slowly reintroduce and any rise in infections will lead back to lockdown. They will not return to the highest levels of infection again - If they do then we are talking Armageddon but again no evidence supports that right now.

 

[Hugh Jass]

China's infection rate will skyrocket again when they lift the lockdown. Covid-19 is too infectious corner into isolated pockets and eradicate.

They might get rid of the infection in places, but it'll boomerang back from somewhere else in the world.

It's already got from China to Rwanda. There'll be nothing to stop it from getting back in a few months' time.

This. This is exactly what an infectious agent expert said on Joe Rogan.

 

[Scrumpet]

Should those of us with a lower risk of being critically affected by Covid-19 stop washing our hands and start licking door handles?

 

[esmufc07]

Ten more dead in UK, total now at 21.

 

[VeevaVee]

They've also taken all of the baby wipes in the three supermarkets near me. Which is a massive problem since I actually have a baby that needs those wipes, so whilst he walks around with a shitty arsehole these dumb fecks are blocking their toilets with them.

It's an absolute joke. Anyone that's contributed to this deserves a smack in the dick and gob. They should then be publicly shamed and punished with a thousand coughs to the face.

 

[dove]

This is my question on the WHO approved method. What happens to economies if we go into a cycle of complete shutdowns for 18 months whilst we wait for a vaccine? This will result in mass business closures and mass job losses. This will have a massive societal impact and cause significant social unrest that I just don't think the WHO's singular vision has any comprehension of. They are not in the business of running economies and societies.

That's exactly the point. WHO doesn't care about economics or social impact, they suggest actions purely based on their expertise and knowledge how to at least control the virus spread, not necessarily stop it completely so I would trust them rather than governments whose primary goal is to keep the tax money coming in. Every country will take different action. Majority countries have chosen to take a hit on economy in order to stop it from becoming completely out of control, while UK chosen to just let the fire burn and hope for the best, decision based very much on financial aspects. Right now it looks to be an absolutely crazy and selfish approach and reminds me of movies where there is always 1 guy making a stupid decision after a stupid decision. Time will tell.

 

[Dante]

Key sentence.



@Dante, can you now understand how irresponsible this approach is at this time?

The article discusses the wider issues. Hibberd eventually concluding that it's a workable, if risky, solution (and a more feasible one for the UK than Singapore's would be).

It's an interview that presents both sides of an argument. Your 'key sentence' ignores one of those sides, and therefore can't be 'key'. If that's all you take away from it, you'd might as well be crossing out half the content with a marker pen.

 

[Rajma]

The article gives both sides of the argument, with Hibberd eventually concluding that it's a workable, if risky, solution (and a more feasible one for the UK than Singapore's).

There's no such a thing as 'key sentence' when both sides of the argument are being presented. Your 'key sentence' ignores one of those sides, and therefore can't be 'key'.

There absolutely is such thing as key sentence. How can arguments from other side hold any water when it’s main element is currently baseless?

 

[sullydnl]

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This is encouraging from an Irish perspective.

 

[TMDaines]

Apologies for insulting your Tory masters.

Press ignore if my 'lefty humanitarian ranting' bothers you so. I'll be doing the same to you.

Rhyme, you aren’t coming across as leftist. You’re coming across asmore prejudist, intolerant and extremist than anyone I’ve seen online discussing this. The further you move left and the further you move right, the closer you get due to the horseshoe effect of dictatorships. You’re describing people as Tory with the same flippancy and distain as the far right describe things as Jewish.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

That's exactly the point. WHO doesn't care about economics or social impact, they suggest actions purely based on their expertise and knowledge how to at least control the virus spread, not necessarily stop it completely so I would trust them rather than governments whose primary goal is to keep the tax money coming in. Every country will take different action. Majority countries have chosen to take a hit on economy in order to stop it from becoming completely out of control, while UK chosen to just let the fire burn and hope for the best, decision based very much on financial aspects. Right now it looks to be an absolutely crazy and selfish approach and reminds me of movies where there is always 1 guy making a stupid decision after a stupid decision. Time will tell.

I don't think it is exactly the point though. The economy sustains us all, at a basic level its how you obtain the means to feed your children. If it completely collapses then we are fecked. Going into numerous full societal shutdowns over 18 months will have much bigger economic impacts than I think people are realising. It isn't simply a public health issue, it's much bigger than that. There's going to be a big economic hit from just the two month impact we are currently experiencing. Each shutdown will be more crippling than the last.

 

[Rajma]

@Dante what you’re essentially saying let’s slaughter a huge amount of people in order to see how our immune system reacts to it on reoccurring basis? Should we maybe wait and see first before making such decisions?

 

[DFreshKing]

That's exactly the point. WHO doesn't care about economics or social impact, they suggest actions purely based on their expertise and knowledge how to at least control the virus spread, not necessarily stop it completely so I would trust them rather than governments whose primary goal is to keep the tax money coming in. Every country will take different action. Majority countries have chosen to take a hit on economy in order to stop it from becoming completely out of control, while UK chosen to just let the fire burn and hope for the best, decision based very much on financial aspects. Right now it looks to be an absolutely crazy and selfish approach and reminds me of movies where there is always 1 guy making a stupid decision after a stupid decision. Time will tell.

Do you think large economic and societal impacts can cause death and illness too? What good would there be surviving corona but starving to death?