SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

RedSky

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What are the dangers of walking the dog in these conditions? I am now arguing with someone on Facebook about it. I say slim to none as long as you are not walking in crowded areas.
It's fine, just generally keep your distance from larger groups of people if you're really paranoid.
 

sullydnl

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@Ekkie Thump

Is it that 5% of all people who get coronavirus will need access to the ICU or just 5% of identified cases (as in excluding the portion of the 60% whose symptoms are mild enough not to register officially)? Because if it's the latter then that would at least change the math somewhat.
 

Paxi

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Iran unfortunately is a real world experiment as they are on the road to apparent herd immunity and nothing can be done there. Why not wait and see how it develops there first before making such decisions without a good amount research first? It’s crazy imo.
And Iran are apparently digging mass graves size of football fields. Sounds like they're not doing too good.
 

T00lsh3d

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What are the dangers of walking the dog in these conditions? I am now arguing with someone on Facebook about it. I say slim to none as long as you are not walking in crowded areas.
Don’t know about walking the dog but it’s definitely dangerous arguing with someone on Facebook
 

Amar__

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That's not true. In China they estimate that 75% of infections occurred in the home, that is where you are most likely to get it from. There is little evidence that mass gatherings transmit the disease in a significant way, as far as I've read anyway. At a football match for one you are outside but if you do get infected by someone sneezing on you, you cannot pass that on to other people for another few days. There is no chain infection effect that I think people imagine there is. Whilst the virus is still relatively low in the population a mass gathering shouldn't pose much threat. The main issue is that mass gatherings require lots of police, medics etc so those valuable resources could be wasted. As it is at the moment the UK services are not overwhelmed yet so there was little evidence that mass gatherings should be have been stopped. The UK decision to ban them was political due to public perception and nothing else as far as I can see.





I'm not advocating for any position. I hold my hands up and say that I'm clueless. I'm just expressing a huge amount of scepticism that the WHO approach is going to work and everything is going to be OK if we follow it.
Do you think you would have single case if someone didn't brought it from Italy/China, etc? Stopping it when you already have it is difficult, but if anyone reacted on time we would have far less cases.
 

JPRouve

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If the economy doesn't matter at all and health is all important, why don't the same people advocate for a lockdown every flu season? Lockdown technques for too long would likely kill more people than they would save due to the massive spike in unemployment and hit to the economy.

Where do people think the money to fund the NHS comes from?
Well we have vaccines to control the flu and it doesn't have the same impact on the public health system. The more you let it spread, the more money and people you need to take care of critical cases. And of course the more people will be unable to work anyway.
 

SirAF

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What are the dangers of walking the dog in these conditions? I am now arguing with someone on Facebook about it. I say slim to none as long as you are not walking in crowded areas.
You are right, of course you can walk the bloody dog :lol: But avoiding crowds is obviously important. I live in the middle of nowhere, so it’s a bit easier to go outside and get some exercise.
 

JPRouve

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Germany is doing such a good job at keeping the number of deaths down. How?
It depends entirely on who got it and at which stage of the infection they are. They currently have +3900 active cases, the demographic of these cases will give you an answer.
 

Tucholsky

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Germany is doing such a good job at keeping the number of deaths down. How?
Probably just luck/statistical anomaly at this moment.
Our own government already said that over the long term our numbers will be similar to that of comparable countries.

Or it is something in the water and thus the beer. Good that I stocked up on beer.....
 

sullydnl

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Given how many people have previously blamed Tory austerity for the indirect death of thousands, it seems odd to now dismiss the concerns over how various measures will damage the economy.

Obviously the virus itself has to be the priority. But it's entirely correct to factor in the effects measures will have on the economy too because damage to the economy will also lead to severe issues and potentially deaths. It's not quite the people vs. profit dynamic some are making it out to be.
 

Sara125

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Well HIV is the same from everything I know (someone please correct me if I'm wrong). The challenge with viruses is that they invade your cells, and if it's not active in your cell it can just stay there dormant. But luckily, the cell itself will detect that and commit cell suicide (apoptosis)
I believe this is correct. With HIV, after the initial seroconversion phase, one can go years without symptoms but the virus is still there. The point of ART drugs are that they keep your viral load to a minimum so that your T-Cell count doesn’t drop to a low enough number that it develops into AIDS
 

Wolverine

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Nick. I'm not necessarily for or against what the government proposes (I have nowhere near enough knowledge to know what's best) but the first expert in your link seems to assert that "the delay techniques promoted by the government are likely to achieve this aim [of flattening] the peak so that those people who suffer the more severe forms of the disease are able to be cared for properly." He also asserts that "by winter" uninfected people will be in a minority.

As I understand it that means he (and Vallance?) thinks the NHS will be able to cope with around 60% of the population being infected in the next 9 months. That equates to just under 40m people. According to the data 5% of those need access to an ICU. The NHS currently has 6.6 ICU beds per 100,000 people. That equates to just under 4500 beds.

Assuming an ideal distribution and an ICU stay limited to just one day per person that many people would require around 7,400 beds with associated staffing in order for the NHS to cope. This itself assumes that literally none of the ICU's are or will be in use for other things. Currently 80% of them are.

As far as I can see there is no world in which the ambition of infecting 60% of the UK population by Christmas can be realised without completely overwhelming current NHS capacity. The only way, offered by expert 2 in your link, would be to lower interactions such that the rate of infection trends substantially lower, but this would seem to involve indefinitely maintaining social distancing models that the government seems to believe are impossible.
Completely agree. There is a massive disconnect between governmental policy and on-the-ground reality in primary and secondary care.
The intensive care provision in our country makes this strategy incredibly callous. The bigger issue is even if they converted theatre rooms to ICU beds/rooms and provided hospitals with more ventilators there simply aren't enough nursing and medical staff equipped to deal with those equipments and look after patients on invasive ventilation.

I think a big part of the flattening the curve theory is to limit the number of people requiring ventilation at any one time but its extremely presumptuous. I'm shocked at our government's strategy. I understand difficult decisions have to be made but we are gambling with so many lives on the basis of behaviour psychology.
 

VorZakone

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I'm still amazed how something that probably started out in a Chinese food market has expanded to such an international scale. I struggle to comprehend that.
 

TMDaines

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@TMDaines

:lol:

Don't bother responding to him, mate.
You can’t hope to win with some. It’s more others that are on the fence or are willing to have a sensible discussion with a different perspective, that you hope to engage with. He just went way too far.
 

spiriticon

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I'm still amazed how something that probably started out in a Chinese food market has expanded to such an international scale. I struggle to comprehend that.
The failure of the WHO and the governments of the world to take this seriously until its too late.

Our government is a shining example of this.
 

RedSky

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I'm still amazed how something that probably started out in a Chinese food market has expanded to such an international scale. I struggle to comprehend that.
Welcome to modern life. Just shows how easy it is to spread if countries allow people to walk in through borders unchecked. A little understandable if they're land massed but largely unforgivable for islands. Where it should be significantly easier to quarantine people entering the country.
 

Wolverine

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If the economy doesn't matter at all and health is all important, why don't the same people advocate for a lockdown every flu season? Lockdown technques for too long would likely kill more people than they would save due to the massive spike in unemployment and hit to the economy.

Where do people think the money to fund the NHS comes from?
I see your point but from what we know this is more infectious and has a higher mortality than the flu. And we have a flu vaccine too.
 

Classical Mechanic

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Do you think you would have single case if someone didn't brought it from Italy/China, etc? Stopping it when you already have it is difficult, but if anyone reacted on time we would have far less cases.
Sure, with hindsight that would happen. This is a highly contagious infection and China suppressed the details of it initially so I don't think it was ever realistic to completely shut it down without the benefit of hindsight. It just isn't realistic to shutdown economies every time a contagion like this threatens. We've been waiting 100 years for something as problematic as the Spanish Flu, there have been numerous less problematic viruses in the years since that didn't require the nuclear option for containment.
 

Skills

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The failure of the WHO and the governments of the world to take this seriously until its too late.

Our government is a shining example of this.
This. And the general disregard of the public towards any public health risk unless its starting to kill 100s or 1000s of people.
 

T00lsh3d

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Not sure if already posted earlier in the thread but Arlene Foster talking about school closures for 16 weeks. That is a serious length of time....totally hammer working parents
 

Conor

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So surprising to see the forum Tory society all sing from the same hymn sheet in this thread.
 

Paxi

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Not sure if already posted earlier in the thread but Arlene Foster talking about school closures for 16 weeks. That is a serious length of time....totally hammer working parents
Post it please. I certainly haven't seen and I I literally sleep in this thread.
 

nickm

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That's exactly the point. WHO doesn't care about economics or social impact, they suggest actions purely based on their expertise and knowledge how to at least control the virus spread, not necessarily stop it completely so I would trust them rather than governments whose primary goal is to keep the tax money coming in. Every country will take different action. Majority countries have chosen to take a hit on economy in order to stop it from becoming completely out of control, while UK chosen to just let the fire burn and hope for the best, decision based very much on financial aspects. Right now it looks to be an absolutely crazy and selfish approach and reminds me of movies where there is always 1 guy making a stupid decision after a stupid decision. Time will tell.
That is a childish way of characterising the UK strategy and suggests you have read nothing that explains it.
 

TMDaines

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Germany is doing such a good job at keeping the number of deaths down. How?
Variance will play massive role in day-to-day numbers. Some days luckier, other days tragic. It will be the patterns that emerge over weeks that will be key.

Countries should be able to compare their mortality data because of standards in death coding, but how countries are creating cohort samples may lead to muddying of waters.
 

Amar__

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Sure, with hindsight that would happen. This is a highly contagious infection and China suppressed the details of it initially so I don't think it was ever realistic to completely shut it down without the benefit of hindsight. It just isn't realistic to shutdown economies every time a contagion like this threatens. We've been waiting 100 years for something as problematic as the Spanish Flu, there have been numerous less problematic viruses in the years since that didn't require the nuclear option for containment.
Italy thing happened probably more than ten days ago. Our(Bosnian) inept goverment who are probably the worst goverment in the world started putting in quarantine people arriving from Italy and China last week, they also banned public events last week, and stopped schools last friday, and by the looks of it we are doing good so far. No one said UK should have done it one month ago, but literally 4 days ago they allowed 3000 madrid fans to travel to your country while Madrid is already one of the worst infected cities in Europe.