SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

sebsheep

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berbatrick

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Just take that guy from the princess Cruise that got taken off because he was positive, then tested negative, then positive again, then twice negative within the space of a few days.
As I understand it, the test is a PCR-based test. That means it looks at all the DNA in the nasal swab, and amplifies a particular part. If that part is present, it gets amplified and shows up, otherwise nothing.
I wonder if the sequence of opposite tests could be the result of a very low concentration of pathogen which did and didn't make it to the swab. Basically a little virus was latent in the nose, and some swabs caught enough of it to amplify, and others didn't. Not that he was getting infected and uninfected constantly.

Also, someone more on the clinical side might have the answer, but why is the testing so rare and expensive? PCRs are used routinely in labs since the 80s and the reagents for them are mass produced already, surely that can be ramped up?
 

Classical Mechanic

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Italy thing happened probably more than ten days ago. Our(Bosnian) inept goverment who are probably the worst goverment in the world started putting in quarantine people arriving from Italy and China last week, they also banned public events last week, and stopped schools last friday, and by the looks of it we are doing good so far. No one said UK should have done it one month ago, but literally 4 days ago they allowed 3000 madrid fans to travel to your country while Madrid is already one of the worst infected cities in Europe.
It was already in the UK community and for the reasons detailed in my other post, the fans from Madrid posed little threat to the UK. Most experts predict that this virus will become endemic in the population and will become a feature of seasonal viruses. The vaccine is generally predicted as being 18 months away. Is Bosnia going to close it's doors and schools for the next 18 months? This isn't a short term issue unfortunately.
 

TMDaines

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Italy thing happened probably more than ten days ago. Our(Bosnian) inept goverment who are probably the worst goverment in the world started putting in quarantine people arriving from Italy and China last week, they also banned public events last week, and stopped schools last friday, and by the looks of it we are doing good so far. No one said UK should have done it one month ago, but literally 4 days ago they allowed 3000 madrid fans to travel to your country while Madrid is already one of the worst infected cities in Europe.
Don’t think we could be worried about Madrid fans at that stage. Our country already cases all over the country. It makes sense to be super strict with your borders if the cost implications are not too high early on, and you stop the virus even entering the country, but once the virus is everywhere, I’m not sure it had much value.

It will be interesting to see in the months and years to follow whether any countries actually so succeed in keeping it out until vaccines are available. I just can’t see how it is possible, even for a place like North Korea. A few island communities and super isolated tribes will have more luck.
 

Dante

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How can you keep a certain distance from other people in your home if you're self isolating without your family? You're quoting things and ignoring what they actually say. The government is telling you to self isolate in your home, for a lot of people that means with family.
If you're self-isolating, the NHS says:
  • try to keep at least 2 metres (3 steps) from other people in your home, particularly older people or those with long-term health conditions
  • ask friends and family and delivery services to deliver things like food shopping and medicines – but avoid contact with them
Which of those two points am I ignoring?

Try watching this from 7:00

It's not ideal, but it's better than sleeping outside and more physically possible than everyone descending on the hospital all at once.
 

Ekkie Thump

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Is it that 5% of all people who get coronavirus will need access to the ICU or just 5% of identified cases (as in excluding the portion of the 60% whose symptoms are mild enough not to register officially)? Because if it's the latter then that would at least change the math somewhat.
That's true and a somewhat comforting thought. I'm not certain but I *think* that it's based on proven infections in China. The rate for proven infections in Lombardy is thought to be 12% - though Lombardy trends older.

It's also true that another vital factor in the equation is bed days. It seems likely that Covid-19 patients require significantly longer than a single day in the ICU. I've struggled to find data on this but this study (warning: direct link to an automatic pdf download) showed a median stay 10 days (small study, plenty of limitations).
 

Fener1907

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The people that brought you Brexit didn't want you to listen to the experts about the economy but now want you to listen to other experts whose plan could result in many deaths.

The UK is a weird country.
 

RedSky

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If you're self-isolating, the NHS says:
  • try to keep at least 2 metres (3 steps) from other people in your home, particularly older people or those with long-term health conditions
  • ask friends and family and delivery services to deliver things like food shopping and medicines – but avoid contact with them
Which of those two points am I ignoring?
From the Government website:

Use of shared spaces if you live with others
Minimise the time you spend in shared spaces such as bathrooms, kitchens and sitting rooms as much as possible and keep shared spaces well ventilated.

Aim to keep 2 metres (3 steps) away from people you live with and sleep in a different bed where possible. If you can, use a separate bathroom from the rest of the household. Make sure you use separate towels from other people in your house, both for drying yourself after bathing or showering and for hand-hygiene purposes. Ask your family or the people you live with to remember to use their own towels.

If you do share toilet and bathroom, it is important that you clean them after you have used them every time (for example, wiping surfaces you have come into contact with). Another tip is to consider drawing up a rota for bathing, with you using the facilities last, before thoroughly cleaning the bath, sink and toilet yourself.

If you share a kitchen with others, avoid using it while others are present. Take your meals back to your room to eat. If you have one, use a dishwasher to clean and dry your used crockery and cutlery. If this is not possible, wash them using your usual washing up liquid and warm water and dry them thoroughly, remembering to use a separate tea towel.

We understand that it will be difficult for some people to separate themselves from others at home. You should do your very best to follow this guidance and everyone in your household should regularly wash their hands, avoid touching their face and clean frequently touched surfaces.
My sister and her house mates laughed themselves silly at those guidelines. She finds it hard enough to motivate her housemates to clean the bathroom every other week let alone after every use. :lol:
 

Sweet Square

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Given how many people have previously blamed Tory austerity for the indirect death of thousands, it seems odd to now dismiss the concerns over how various measures will damage the economy.

Obviously the virus itself has to be the priority. But it's entirely correct to factor in the effects measures will have on the economy too because damage to the economy will also lead to severe issues and potentially deaths. It's not quite the people vs. profit dynamic some are making it out to be.
Yeah somehow I don't think the party that has spent the last decade starving disabled people to death is now suddenly very concert about the potentially deaths that could arise due to economic damage.
 

Rhyme Animal

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Yeah somehow I don't think the party that has spent the last decade staving disabled people to death is now suddenly very concert about the potentially deaths that could arise due to economic damage.
So surprising to see the forum Tory society all sing from the same hymn sheet in this thread.
Careful lads, you might get labelled as 'prejudist' (spelling isn't changed) for actually caring about old / vulnerable people, or 'extremist' by one these Tory Boy idiots for having some of that putrid Human passion that is so problematic for these type of policies.
 

SirAF

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A close friend of mine is on a foreign exchange at the uni in Sheffield and wants to come home. Hope to feck she makes it out before Norway close its borders! She’s really scared.

Noggie PM expected to adress the nation at 5 PM.
 

Irwin99

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I do wonder if the mistrust towards the mainstream media that has been part of the social/political discourse over the past 5 years or so has had an impact here. You have the president of the world's superpower going to war with the media every single day and politicians in England saying that we've had enough of experts so some people are saying it's all media bollocks. On the other side of it, you have people madly rushing to buy toilet rolls and starting fights in supermarkets.
 

Dante

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From the Government website:



My sister and her house mates laughed themselves silly at those guidelines. She finds it hard enough to motivate her housemates to clean the bathroom every other week let alone after every use. :lol:
It's funny if you're only thinking about yourself.

The isolation also helps protects others.

According to the CMO Chris Whitty, self isolation by everyone can reduce the peak by 25%; self isolation by households at a later stage of the epidemic can reduce the peak by 50%
 

berbatrick

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Is this viable?
It's viable as a way to stop coronavirus, I think. The article doesn't go into any details but it may be extremely unviable in every other way - foreign antibodies might start attacking our own cells, similar to what can happen if blood type isn't matched before transfering. But the people doing this will 100% be aware of that and possibly working around it. I don't work with human biology so I don't know what that method would look like, but I doubt a simple transfer would do it.
 

Paxi

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From the Government website:



My sister and her house mates laughed themselves silly at those guidelines. She finds it hard enough to motivate her housemates to clean the bathroom every other week let alone after every use. :lol:
Yeah those guidelines are fecking silly. I live with my younger brother and he really doesn't give one feck about this virus and thus his hygiene is as it always was: nonexistent. So, I'm resigned to catching it off him at one point or another.
 

berbatrick

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I do wonder if the mistrust towards the mainstream media that has been part of the social/political discourse over the past 5 years or so has had an impact here. You have the president of the world's superpower going to war with the media every single day and politicians in England saying that we've had enough of experts so some people are saying it's all media bollocks. On the other side of it, you have people madly rushing to buy toilet rolls and starting fights in supermarkets.
(thread)
 

Di Maria's angel

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Interesting. Our Dr Campbell says that had China acted 3 weeks earlier, the number of cases would have been reduced by 95%. What was stopping the world from acting earlier?

We're quick to judge the Chinese but we're just as bad as them.

I like this guy. I like his opinion of the WHO - they're just as culpable for whats happening across the world. Bunch of fecking cnuts.
 

DoomSlayer

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It's a very polite civil war over here, what with Brexit, Johnson and now this. We're all throwing gloves at each other. :lol:
Yeah, but this is a game-changer for the whole world.

I was hoping debate would be encouraged, because there is literally no win from this situation. The only way to deal with it is to find methods that would create the least amount of long-term problems. We can't just stay in lockdown for months, it's absurd and anarchy would ensue.
 

Classical Mechanic

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That's true and a somewhat comforting thought. I'm not certain but I *think* that it's based on proven infections in China. The rate for proven infections in Lombardy is thought to be 12% - though Lombardy trends older.

It's also true that another vital factor in the equation is bed days. It seems likely that Covid-19 patients require significantly longer than a single day in the ICU. I've struggled to find data on this but this study (warning: direct link to an automatic pdf download) showed a median stay 10 days (small study, plenty of limitations).
I believe that Italy has 2x as many smokers as the UK and that smokers are 50% more likely to require intensive care. I think @11101 posted those stats.