SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Dante]

He is not saying so though. He is saying what is the rationale of stopping mass gatherings, if you allow small gatherings or kids going to school.

While he has not said that only a total lockdown works, he has several times hinted it on his threads. And he has essentially said that achieving herd immunity without crashing the medical system is impossible.

I'm not advocating for herd immunity. I'm saying that a high infection rate is going to be inevitable (unless you lockdown indefinitely, which is unworkable anyway).

I'm also saying that a crash of the medical system is going to be inevitable. The NHS is simply not built for these kinds of numbers. And since the banning of mass gatherings serves no purpose, we should remain economically active as long as possible as that's the best way to mitigate the coming medical system crash.

 

[Paxi]

Apparently half of people who have needed ICU in the Netherlands are under 50. Wow.

Holy shit. Source Sarni?

 

[Sarni]

Can someone answer me this - whilst many of us are expecting to get this virus? Won’t many of us get it and be over it in a couple of weeks? See worrying estimates of maybe 20m people in the Uk having it by June, but won’t many of the younger / healthier people have recovered within a couple of weeks?

Mostly yes. Some won’t. Some will pass it on to older people who will recover. Some will pass it on to older people who won’t recover.

 

[Adamsk7]

According to a couple of people from Netherlands on Twitter. Not sure how legit.

it's not legit. The French one either. Can't find it from anywhere other than Twitter randoms.

 

[Sarni]

Holy shit. Source Sarni?

Original:

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[horsechoker]

We won't know if a total lockdown worked until then, but we do know just banning large gatherings of people and closing schools didn't work. That was implemented 3 weeks ago.

I would say that lockdown's work if enforced. People are just asked to cooperate with it. Maybe we'll see the military enforce a lockdown if things don't improve.

 

[Sarni]

it's not legit. The French one either. Can't find it from anywhere other than Twitter randoms.

Hopefully.

 

[TwoSheds]

Can someone answer me this - whilst many of us are expecting to get this virus? Won’t many of us get it and be over it in a couple of weeks? See worrying estimates of maybe 20m people in the Uk having it by June, but won’t many of the younger / healthier people have recovered within a couple of weeks?

It's still not totally clear whether you can get it more than once...

Also in Bergamo, the worst hit part of Italy, the obituary page of the local paper is normally about half a page long. My mate says today it's 11 pages long and likely to get worse. So think again about what that 20m people means...

 

[Dante]

Can someone answer me this - whilst many of us are expecting to get this virus? Won’t many of us get it and be over it in a couple of weeks? See worrying estimates of maybe 20m people in the Uk having it by June, but won’t many of the younger / healthier people have recovered within a couple of weeks?

Don't worry. You'll develop a heardy immunity.

 

[Arruda]

Can someone answer me this - whilst many of us are expecting to get this virus? Won’t many of us get it and be over it in a couple of weeks? See worrying estimates of maybe 20m people in the Uk having it by June, but won’t many of the younger / healthier people have recovered within a couple of weeks?

Yes.

 

[Sarni]

Link? Not even Dutch media are reporting this.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Probably horseshit then. That’s why I said apparently.

 

[Arruda]

Don't worry. You'll develop a heardy immunity.

 

[Revan]

My thoughts here probably have a billion flaws, but

We're an island. If we cut off all all travel by air and sea, apart from deliveries for stuff like medications, foods etc with strict checks.
Freeze everything. No mortgages, food bills etc
Have nobody on the streets. Army are used to patrol and make sure everything runs.
Volunteers to do certain things, so for example, bag up food supplies and drop off at houses.
NHS staff obviously have to work, as do certain people, for water, electricity etc. The things we'd really need
Also gain enough test kits, so that in 2months, maybe 3 months, they sweep streets one by one, test each person before they're allowed back into a normal life as such.

Wouldn't that effectively kill the virus off... In Britain at the very least, all while a vaccine is being created.
As I said, I know their are flaws but surely things could be ironed out to almost work.
Money is just a currency that we use.
But if a landlord for example doesn't have to pay his mortgage, his food bill, his business rates, is he any worse off?

Wishful thinking I know

You are essentially advocating for the Wuhan scenario. Which has worked so far.

 

[Heardy]

Don't worry. You'll develop a heardy immunity.

 

[Arruda]

I'm not advocating for herd immunity. I'm saying that a high infection rate is going to be inevitable (unless you lockdown indefinitely, which is unworkable anyway).

I'm also saying that a crash of the medical system is going to be inevitable. The NHS is simply not built for these kinds of numbers. And since the banning of mass gatherings serves no purpose, we should remain economically active as long as possible as that's the best way to mitigate the coming medical system crash.

Right, since we'll have a recession, might has well delay it a couple of weeks and add up maybe tens of thousands more of deaths to it.

 

[Paxi]

The idea is that the only way to bottleneck is through quarantine and lockdown.

But the British people are too stubborn to accept that more than once or for more than a few weeks at most.

So the bottleneck has to be introduced judiciously at the right time. The modelling tells us that it's not the right time now, because only 1,100 are (officially) infected.

I mean, are we that stubborn? I understand the economic implications of prolonged lockdown but saying people will get bored sounds a bit trivial considering what's at stake here. Get the army and enforce a lockdown. Again, I've no idea of economic implications of that but I'd rather that than see 2 million UK citizens die. It's unthinkable.

 

[Sarni]

it's not legit. The French one either. Can't find it from anywhere other than Twitter randoms.

Didn’t the French one come from their minister?

 

[VorZakone]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Probably horseshit then. That’s why I said apparently.

Nope, it's legit. But it's very fresh. However, it's explained that some elders choose not to be treated in the ICU.

 

[mu4c_20le]

Apparently half of people who have needed ICU in the Netherlands are under 50. Wow.

Overall or just the areas where the pot cafes are?

 

[Infra-red]

I'm not advocating for herd immunity. I'm saying that a high infection rate is going to be inevitable (unless you lockdown indefinitely, which is unworkable anyway).

I'm also saying that a crash of the medical system is going to be inevitable. The NHS is simply not built for these kinds of numbers. And since the banning of mass gatherings serves no purpose, we should remain economically active as long as possible as that's the best way to mitigate the coming medical system crash.

The best way to mitigate the medical system crash, is total and immediate lockdown of the population for a prolonged period, during which every available resource is marshalled to increase NHS critical care capacity. Then, slowly reduce the controls and drip-feed patients into ICUs, at a manageable level.

It will take longer and cost more money, but it will also prevent 2m+ people from dying needlessly in the next 5 months due to a lack of access to life-saving healthcare.

 

[Revan]

Right, since we'll have a recession, might has well delay it a couple of weeks and add up maybe tens of thousands more of deaths to it.

Exactly. And it is like delay for a couple of weeks, not more.

We already saw the difference doing lockdowns make. We also have the example of St Louis and Pittsburg from the Spanish flu. It is the only way.

 

[Adamsk7]

Misinformation is so dangerous currently. Honestly after I saw the posts about France and Netherlands over 50% ICU stats (notice how they were both the same figures), went straight on facebook and my "Friend" had posted it and people were losing their shit. it's literally reported nowhere other than seemingly that sensationalist dutch site (which gave my computer loads of f'in popups btw) and that woman (for the French 'news').

I don't blame anyone here for posting stuff like that BUT people looking to get clicks from a global crisis are the biggest kind of scum. Bet they have ALL the toilet roll!

 

[VorZakone]

Misinformation is so dangerous currently. Honestly after I saw the posts about France and Netherlands over 50% ICU stats (notice how they were both the same figures), went straight on facebook and my "Friend" had posted it and people were losing their shit. it's literally reported nowhere other than seemingly that sensationalist dutch site (which gave my computer loads of f'in popups btw) and that woman (for the French 'news').

I don't blame anyone here for posting stuff like that BUT people looking to get clicks from a global crisis are the biggest kind of scum. Bet they have ALL the toilet roll!

That Dutch site is one of the largest media sites in the Netherlands and the statistic was shared by a high-ranking chief.

 

[Arruda]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Probably horseshit then. That’s why I said apparently.

@11101 Posted stats from Lombardy (560 on ICU) and it was 10% there <50. But 32% for 50-64 and 38% 65-74 which is terrifying.

 

[Port Vale Devil]

Misinformation is so dangerous currently. Honestly after I saw the posts about France and Netherlands over 50% ICU stats (notice how they were both the same figures), went straight on facebook and my "Friend" had posted it and people were losing their shit. it's literally reported nowhere other than seemingly that sensationalist dutch site (which gave my computer loads of f'in popups btw) and that woman (for the French 'news').

I don't blame anyone here for posting stuff like that BUT people looking to get clicks from a global crisis are the biggest kind of scum. Bet they have ALL the toilet roll!

Exactly. Scaremongering shit is what leads to mass panic/panic buying.

 

[Revan]

To be fair, this misinformation is good. Maybe it will stop selfish twats from going to pubs just cause they are not likely to get infected and want to live their lives.

 

[Redlambs]

I get what you are saying. In your scenario, I would have done the same. It is nuts that the governments all over the world are not also introducing financial reliefs. The mortgage payments should stop until the crisis is over, for a start. Governments should ensure food for their citizens. And so on.

All I can say is, good luck, be careful and try to avoid contact with people (especially elderly and those with chronic diseases). At the end of the day, some degree of social distancing will help. The growth might still be exponential (in which case the number of victims would be approximately the same), but maybe not. South Korea and Singapore are containing it without going in full lockdown. Heck, even China is containing it without full lockdown (outside of Wuhan).

Anyway, I digressed but my point is that a full lockdown followed by a gradual relaxing of measures, but still mandatory social distancing when possible, might decrease the number of victims 10 fold or more. It might not, but what do we have to lose by trying?

Mate, I think you know me e-enough to know I'm not an arsehole, I do care about people on here and all around me. I'm going to do all I can to protect not just myself and family, but everyone else because we both know people need protecting from themselves.

I also have Asthma and my young bro in law has cystic fibrosis, and my mum has health issues.

It's what makes this whole situation so fecked, there's no leadership and no plan. All there is is non commital half-arsed government statements, people panicking and hoarding, and those with no commitments telling the rest what we should be doing from some moral stance.

It's a mess. Anyone with any sense should see that we should all work together, help each other and isolate as much as possible so the real smart feckers can come up with a genuine plan that we all listen to in unison and come out the other side in the best way possible. But even now, every country seems to be doing it slightly differently, we are all pulling apart and it's depressing. More worrying than the actual virus itself in a lot of ways.

 

[Paxi]

Original:

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Cheers mate.

Google translation:

40 to 50 Dutch corona patients in intensive care units: 'More than half are under fifty'
Today there are between forty and fifty corona patients in critical condition on Dutch intensive care units. “More than half of those patients are under fifty years old. There are also young people. "" That says chairman of the Dutch Association for Intensive Care (NVIC) Diederik Gommers, in an interview with this site.

The professor of intensive care medicine, who himself heads the IC of Rotterdam's Erasmus MC, emphasizes that it is not only the elderly who are affected by the corona virus. ,, What has mainly made the news is that older people die faster. This is about 2.5 percent of the entire population, while about 15 percent of the elderly die. But more than half of those patients are under fifty years old. It also includes young people. ''

The specialist explains that it also regularly occurs with regular flu that younger people end up in intensive care. "You can see that with the flu: those people get serious double-sided pneumonia." In addition, the elderly also choose not to be treated in intensive care.
16 year old
A 16-year-old boy from Breda is infected with the coronavirus and is currently in the intensive care unit of the Erasmus MC-Sophia Children's Hospital. His family calls all over the Netherlands: "Wake up and take this virus seriously."
The IC specialist also says that admissions to intensive care because of the Covid-19 virus can take weeks. ,, In Erasmus there are two patients who have been on respiration for three weeks now. All other patients in intensive care units are shorter there. ''
Dutch doctors have also been informed about patients from Lombardy, Italy, who confirm data that young and relatively healthy people are also affected by the corona virus. ,, The youngest intubated Covid-19 patient is a girl of 16 years old. Two children with Covid-19 were admitted to the pediatric IC for observation but did not require additional therapy, '' the information circulated among Dutch physicians says. The first patient in that Italian region to receive a ventilator was ventilated for eighteen days, while he was relatively healthy. "It was a 38-year-old, otherwise very healthy man, who ran marathons for this."
Main risk factor for obesity
The average age of all covid-19 ic patients in Lombardy, Italy, was 70 years, according to which 'the main risk factor for ic uptake is obesity'. According to that information, the transmission of corona from mother to unborn children seems to 'not take place'. ,, This is based on three positively tested mothers (all incidentally complaint-free) who gave birth to a child which tested negative for covid-19. The same was observed in China, '' according to the information distributed to Dutch specialists based on the Italian region.
Rest and control
According to Gommers, it is 'busy' in the Netherlands for the departments for the most seriously ill patients, who need continuous care and monitoring, 'but because precautions have been taken, it is still possible'. “I have had both Den Bosch and Amphia in Breda on the line today. There is peace and control . ''
According to the chairman of the IC doctors in the Netherlands, there are currently 'about forty to fifty people in intensive care units, that is the position this morning'. “In Breda, for example, the large intensive care units have between eight to ten patients. That is about 30 percent of the total capacity. It is therefore a little less busy than I initially expected, '' admits the chairman of the intensive care association, who warned that after this weekend not only the Brabant but also the Rotterdam intensive care would fill up .
A Chinese study, based on nearly 45,000 patients, shows that the elderly are by far the most at risk for contracting the coronavirus. The risk of death of people over 80 was nearly 15 percent, for people in their seventies this is 8 percent, for example, against 0.2 percent of infected teenagers.

Can anyone from our Dutch contingent verify the reliability of this?

 

[Dante]

Right, since we'll have a recession, might has well delay it a couple of weeks and add up maybe tens of thousands more of deaths to it.

Money is a dirty word in a thread about life and death. But that doesn't make it irrelevant, unfortunately.

 

[Skills]

Exactly. And it is like delay for a couple of weeks, not more.

We already saw the difference doing lockdowns make. We also have the example of St Louis and Pittsburg from the Spanish flu. It is the only way.

It is now. The most ridiculous thing is, if they were willing to just lockdown the borders a few months ago (heck even just 3 weeks ago to Italy) we wouldn't need anywhere near as extreme measures just yet. But prolonging the exponential growth just means, whenever they get their shit together the lockdown is going to have to be more extreme and a lot longer lasting than had they done it earlier (plus more needless deaths leading up to it).

 

[T00lsh3d]

I really don't understand the rationale of having 60% of the population infected over a year. If we look at best case scenarios here in that the total time you're infected for before being cured is 2 weeks and these infections are evenly distributed over time then you are looking at:
36,000,000 (total infected) ÷ 26 (every 2 weeks) = 1,384,615 (infected every 2 weeks).
If you then work on the basis that 10% of these will have a severe infection and need to be hospitalised then you are looking at 138,462 people taking up hospital beds with coronavirus complications. If you are working on the basis that the figures in China and Italy are flawed because they don't take into account the non-symptomatic and mild cases then if 2% of all infected need hospital beds you still will have an extra 27,692 people every 2 weeks being hospitalised. Even in the best case scenario using this model will cause the NHS to collapse. This idea is fecking crazy and it needs to be changed immediately.

Pie challenge curtailed as well I presume. Are you voiding this seasons pies?

 

[VorZakone]

Cheers mate.

Google translation:



Can anyone from our Dutch contingent verify the reliability of this?

The stat was shared by the chief of the Dutch Association for ICU's.

 

[2cents]

Anyone knows why some countries are in the 100s cases per million(Italy are at 349) while countries like France, China, Netherland or Germany are in the 50-70 range?

Don’t see any reason to accept any numbers as in any way accurate.

 

[The Firestarter]

In situations like this posting fake news about the epidemic which can cause people to go truly psychotic should be criminalized.

 

[Dante]

The best way to mitigate the medical system crash, is total and immediate lockdown of the population for a prolonged period, during which every available resource is marshalled to increase NHS critical care capacity. Then, slowly reduce the controls and drip-feed patients into ICUs, at a manageable level.

It will take longer and cost more money, but it will also prevent 2m+ people from dying needlessly in the next 5 months due to a lack of access to life-saving healthcare.

Probably, yes.

But people won't accept that for prolonged period. It's simply not realistic. There'd be widespread civil unrest.

 

[VorZakone]

I wonder if the Chinese statistics have been deemed reliable by Western experts? I guess we'd have heard by now if they weren't.

 

[Dante]

Anyone knows why some countries are in the 100s cases per million(Italy are at 349) while countries like France, China, Netherland or Germany are in the 50-70 range?

Those countries have a relative lack of testing:

Country​	Tests Performed	Tests per Million People	Population​		​
Bahrain​	8,354​	4,910​	1,701,575​	OFFICIAL​	source​
South Korea​	210,144​	4,099​	51,269,185​	OFFICIAL​	source​
Hong Kong​	16,000​	2,134​	7,496,981​	Estimated​	sources​
Italy​	60,761​	1,005​	60,461,826​	OFFICIAL​	source​
Switzerland​	5,000​	578​	8,654,622​	Estimated​	Mar. 3: 4,000 source​
Austria​	5,026​	558​	9,006,398​	OFFICIAL​	source​
UK​	26,261​	387​	67,886,011​	OFFICIAL​	source​
Belgium​	3,984​	344​	11,589,623​	Estimated​	Mar 9: 3,541 OFFICIAL source​
Australia​	8,278​	325​	25,499,884​	Estimated​	Mar. 8: 8,278 OFFICIAL PARTIAL source source​
Israel​	2,386​	276​	8,655,535​	Estimated​	Mar. 8: 1,771 source​
France​	11,895​	182​	65,273,511​	Estimated​	Mar. 5: 6,610 OFFICIAL source​
Finland​	720​	130​	5,540,720​	OFFICIAL Mar. 10​	source​
Malaysia​	3,132​	97​	32,365,999​	OFFICIAL Mar. 10​	source​
Japan​	9,600​	76​	126,476,461​	OFFICIAL Mar. 10​	source​
Netherlands​	600​	35​	17,134,872​	Estimated​	Mar. 2: 200 source​
USA​	8,554​	26​	331,002,651​	OFFICIAL Mar. 10​	source​
Vietnam​	2,367​	24​	97,338,579​	OFFICIAL Mar. 10​	source​
Turkey​	940​	11​	84,339,067​	Estimated​	As of Mar 3: 940 OFFICIAL source​

 

[Paxi]

The stat was shared by the chief of the Dutch Association for ICU's.

Feck.

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

In situations like this posting fake news about the epidemic which can cause people to go truly psychotic should be criminalized.

just adds to the panic

 

[Revan]

Mate, I think you know me e-enough to know I'm not an arsehole, I do care about people on here and all around me. I'm going to do all I can to protect not just myself and family, but everyone else because we both know people need protecting from themselves.

I also have Asthma and my young bro in law has cystic fibrosis, and my mum has health issues.

It's what makes this whole situation so fecked, there's no leadership and no plan. All there is is non commital half-arsed government statements, people panicking and hoarding, and those with no commitments telling the rest what we should be doing from some moral stance.

It's a mess. Anyone with any sense should see that we should all work together, help each other and isolate as much as possible so the real smart feckers can come up with a genuine plan that we all listen to in unison and come out the other side in the best way possible. But even now, every country seems to be doing it slightly differently, we are all pulling apart and it's depressing. More worrying than the actual virus itself in a lot of ways.

I know it. Good luck!

I am in a similar scenario. Probably I would not suffer from it when/if I get it, but my mum is 65, my brother is in wheelchair for almost 30 years so has a weaker immune, and my other brother is a smoker (the shitcnut). I don’t wanna even think about it, but all three of them are in a higher danger than the median. All we can do is to be careful and buy time.