SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[noodlehair]

Aye, and posters on here and around Europe are desperate to demonize us in Sweden for not locking down yet, but every single day we are reminded at the 14:00 press conference by the health ministry (it’s not the government running the show here), that there are only two ways out of this and anything we do such as social distancing, working from home, sick leave extended with no doctors note etc etc etc has to be able to work for months. They cannot believe countries are “locking down” early because of the adverse effects and the end game. If you have a stable number of people going into ICU, what is locking down achieving? A vaccine won’t be here in 3 weeks.
But the situations in Italy and Spain have understandably made people shit the bed. And now you’ve got daft things going on in the UK that defy all logic, like police drones shaming people for being out for a hike in the Peak District with not another person in sight. How the feck does that help stopping Covid-19? Lots of people have lost sight of what is trying to be achieved here.
I predict anarchy in Southern Italy within the next month.
India is already a total cluster feck.

Yeah I was using Sweden as an example trying to explain this to someone I work withbthe other day, but they just don't want to get it.

I'm not sure of the full picture either but from what I can tell there's little evidence so far that lock down measures are helping that much compared to the approach in Sweden. Last I checked the percentage of people confirmed as testing positive in Sweden was higher than here, yet the percentage of deaths much lower. Which if that continues suggests it's already the measures being taken killing people as much as the virus.

I think there will be big problems in Italy and I think bigger ones here in a couple of months. Potentially rioting. Because governments are fumbling along and will try to paint it as a victory when this all starts to ease off, which won't go down well when people still can't get food, healthcare, or find their job doesn't magically come back. Also when information starts to come out that contradicts the information that was given by the government...Which will happen as it's already clear some of what the UK Government have told people was very wide of the mark.

It comes back to what I said to @TheReligion there is a much higher level of trust in the system where you are than here, in no small part because there is a much higher level of competency in the system there than here.

 

[TheReligion]

Am I the only one who has no problem with the police going overboard with enforcing the lockdown?

The media are now going after the police, saying it's heavy handed to clamp down on people driving to remote locations for exercise. It has even lead to the government to tell the police not to be so heavy handed.

As far as I'm concerned, the cops can't be heavy handed enough. People have behaved like idiots. Telling the police to back down and let people carry on being idiots sends the wrong message.

It's really pissed me off, along with that Lord trying to get his name in the media by piping up about it.

Do people think any of us actually enjoy being in work at the moment? Having to deal with people suspected of having the virus, those that have died in the community and going into house after house dealing with other incidents placing ourselves and our loved ones at risk? We'd love to work from home, protect our families and keep ourselves out of harm's way yet we have a job to do like other key workers. This bizarre criticism will damage morale.

 

[Prometheus]

I honestly don't know what the best solution would be, but that's why the world leaders have so much information at their disposal and so many experts who could analyse the different scenarios and outcomes.

All that information/access to expertise is useless if you're not going to faithfully apply it. The banking crisis is actually a good example. Sometimes the people at the top are not even smart enough to understand the complexity of the situation.

 

[RobinLFC]

This recession will be far worse than 2008 if we are in lockdown for 12-18 months (until vaccine). Much worse. Hell, even 6 months of lockdown, which is IMO the absolute minimum, will hit economy much, much harder.

Johnson&Johnson is now "cautiously optimistic" to have a vaccine ready at the start of 2021, so might be significantly less than 12-18 months.

I also don't think the strict lockdown will last anywhere near 6 months tbh. Social distancing could probably be a thing for the rest of the year or so but the economy and people working will pick up again before summer.

 

[Moiraine]

The scandinavians should be exempted from being an example of how civilized people can be, they're a special breed there.

A guy here in Norway was fined 40,000 kroner for breaking Quarantine. There have been people going out to shops and public places found saying “we were getting bored at home” and consequently other people complained them.

Stupid and irresponsible people are everywhere... Scandinavia is also blessed with them.

 

[Cloud7]

What do you do with a ventilator when it stops being a ventilator?

There will be a world wide glut of the things when this is all over, maybe Dyson are designing one that converts into a carpet cleaner when its ventilating days are done?

Donate them to developing countries that need them! We have probably 40-50 vents for our entire country.

 

[JPRouve]

I guess when the inevitable social unrest in poor areas and regions begins, you guys would advocate for the military to step in.

Who is "you guys"? I have advocated nothing, so don't start running your mouth.

 

[nimic]

The scandinavians should be exempted from being an example of how civilized people can be, they're a special breed there.

I'm not so sure. We've got people writing angry Letters to the Editor complaining about the injustice of barring people from going to their cabins. One guy was fined £1500 for going to a party when he should have been quarantined after being abroad (anyone who comes from abroad is supposed to self-quarantine for two weeks. Many northern municipalities also have the same rules regarding people coming from the south).

 

[Kentonio]

Am I the only one who has no problem with the police going overboard with enforcing the lockdown?

The media are now going after the police, saying it's heavy handed to clamp down on people driving to remote locations for exercise. It has even lead to the government to tell the police not to be so heavy handed.

As far as I'm concerned, the cops can't be heavy handed enough. People have behaved like idiots. Telling the police to back down and let people carry on being idiots sends the wrong message.

I thought Derbyshire police putting black dye in the lagoon was a bit shitty. Stopping people to make sure they have good reasons to be out is one thing, but fecking with the landscape to make it less appealing just seems like an asshole move.

 

[DoomSlayer]

All that information/access to expertise is useless if you're not going to faithfully apply it. The banking crisis is actually a good example. Sometimes the people at the top are not even smart enough to understand the complexity of the situation.

I understand that, but at times like these, these global leaders cannot act out of fear. They are the only people who can make the hard decisions and decide what is best for the current time, but also for the future. We cannot allow the long term to be damned for a false sense of security at the moment.

Let's talk about the ramifications for Europe in particular. Do people think the EU would survive this crisis? I predict a total shift in national policies and reverting back to bigger self-dependance. Countries might go for more regional cooperation instead of the current economic and political union, because so far there's been total divide in opinions of what should be done and every country is effectively trying to battle this on their own. The inadequate decision making of the European top leaders is staggering to me.

 

[DoomSlayer]

Who is "you guys"? I have advocated nothing, so don't start running your mouth.

I apologise, I wrongly assumed that you are in favour of the heavy and drastic policing of people. My bad.

 

[RobinLFC]

A guy here in Norway was fined 40,000 kroner for breaking Quarantine. There have been people going out to shops and public places found saying “we were getting bored at home” and consequently other people complained them.

Stupid and irresponsible people are everywhere... Scandinavia is also blessed with them.

It seems to be working in Sweden so far though? Good luck telling people here in Belgium to "be responsible and keep social distancing in mind" and hope they follow your advice - they'll just go to the pubs to get hammered anyway because i) they're egoistic and ii) they're stupid. Same probably goes for the UK.

 

[Fully Fledged]

To put things in some perspective though, 1500 people die in the UK every single day on average.

Yeah that fact that this is already 25% of all normal deaths is frightening.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

It seems to be working in Sweden so far though?

Still too early to tell, what is certain is that countries will have to stop lockdown sooner rather than later and defer to a Swedish type model. Lockdown for months is impossible.
So with that said, let’s hope it keeps working in Sweden else we’re all in big shit.

Another thing to note is that Swedish independence could play a big part, so what “might” work for one country might not for another. I keep saying that Italy and Spain were the two European countries that unfortunately appear to have the perfect mix of culture for this virus to do maximum damage

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Yeah that fact that this is already 25% of all normal deaths is frightening.

Well not when you consider that a large chunk of those deaths would by all accounts over Europe, be part of those overall death statistics at the end of the year regardless.

 

[DomesticTadpole]

Yeah that fact that this is already 25% of all normal deaths is frightening.

Could the virus have led to some of the people dying normally dying from the virus instead? More people dying from the virus, but the normal deaths for the day being down?

 

[DoomSlayer]

Yeah that fact that this is already 25% of all normal deaths is frightening.

Has that been confirmed? That would be interesting information to find out.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Could the virus have led to some of the people dying normally dying from the virus instead? More people dying from the virus, but the normal deaths for the day being down?

Between 550,000-600,000 UK deaths yearly on average and yes, the data so far says a large chunk of those succumbing to Covid-19 would possibly be in the 600,000 figure regardless. There’s a huge number of deaths where the person had multiple underlying problems.

So it’s not shit scary yet, it did hit those levels in Italy though.

 

[Fortitude]

Are there any good links to the expected 2nd wave of this?

 

[DomesticTadpole]

90,000 UK deaths yearly on average and yes, the data so far says a large chunk of those succumbing to Covid-19 would possibly be in the 90,000 figure regardless.

So it’s not shit scary yet, it did hit those levels in Italy though.

Thanks.

 

[fishfingers15]

Surely the China numbers look less and less likely? But I fully acknolwedge that I have no facts to back it up but more of logical conclusion, stepping into conspiracy theories.

 

[Prometheus]

90,000 UK deaths yearly on average and yes, the data so far says a large chunk of those succumbing to Covid-19 would possibly be in the 90,000 figure regardless. There’s a huge number of deaths where the person had multiple underlying problems.

So it’s not shit scary yet, it did hit those levels in Italy though.

All of that is wrong. You keep making up your own facts and brand of science.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

All of that is wrong. You keep making up your own facts and brand of science.

Just show me what is wrong then? Surely that’s better than a green smilie? Educate me.

Ahhh now I see @Prometheus, 90,000 was the Swedish number of deaths per year. Had that in my head. UK is of course, as I said in my original post around 1500 per day.

 

[Arruda]

Today's positive COVID-19 story

That is awesome, I love this stuff. But the way you phrased it I thought the spiderman had tested positive before I read it fully

 

[Sarni]

Johnson&Johnson is now "cautiously optimistic" to have a vaccine ready at the start of 2021, so might be significantly less than 12-18 months.

I also don't think the strict lockdown will last anywhere near 6 months tbh. Social distancing could probably be a thing for the rest of the year or so but the economy and people working will pick up again before summer.

I really don’t think we will loosen up anything before vaccine.

 

[RobinLFC]

I really don’t think we will loosen up anything before vaccine.

They won't be able to keep the people in their homes for the rest of 2020. People would riot during the summer.

 

[DoomSlayer]

They won't be able to keep the people in their homes for the rest of 2020. People would riot during the summer.

People in poor countries who struggle financially will start rioting a lot sooner than the summer.

 

[Snafu17]

There's no way a full lockdown lasts more than 2/3 months, for better or worse.

 

[fergieisold]

I really don’t think we will loosen up anything before vaccine.

I think we likely will. I think restrictions will be relaxed some time in may or June. I don't see them lasting until there is a vaccine.

 

[Winrar]

Surely the China numbers look less and less likely? But I fully acknolwedge that I have no facts to back it up but more of logical conclusion, stepping into conspiracy theories.

I would argue it's not really outlandish nor a "conspiracy theory" to question presented data given by an unreliable source (CCP), especially with available secondary data that seem to contradict the narrative, such as huge drop in cell phone subscriptions in China, amount of urns in funeral homes in Wuhan, etc.

CCP's silencing the doctor whistleblower Li Wenliang alone should tell you who we're really dealing with here.

 

[Arruda]

I guess when the inevitable social unrest in poor areas and regions begins, you guys would advocate for the military to step in.

What alternative would you propose in that scenario, out of curiosity (assuming it's beyond the capabilities of regular police forces)?

 

[Dr. StrangeHate]

What do you do with a ventilator when it stops being a ventilator?

There will be a world wide glut of the things when this is all over, maybe Dyson are designing one that converts into a carpet cleaner when its ventilating days are done?

Donating to poor countries/hospitals who will never be able to afford it.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

I really don’t think we will loosen up anything before vaccine.

Haha, no chance, it’d be total anarchy.

 

[Sky1981]

Surely the China numbers look less and less likely? But I fully acknolwedge that I have no facts to back it up but more of logical conclusion, stepping into conspiracy theories.

Unless you're homeless with no relatives (which is very rare in china), your family would be bound to at least ask how are you doing in the hospital, if you're deceased the government would release the names (data, initials, etc). I don't think it's possible for China to detain the names, if they erase it out of thin air people would start questioning what happens with their loved ones.

Say you're my uncle, you're hospitalized, I sure as hell would check up on you. If you die and the government decides you're one of the names they won't divulge then you can be sure I will raise the issue.

China isn't north korea, there are reporters there from all over the world. There are expats, there are other nation's ambassadors, tourist, attache, etc. If there are foul play we'd be hearing more concrete accusations from many other nations.

Wuhan has like 10-12M? people? If the number is much higher say 2x or 3x the official reports, there's no way that city would hold, the contagion spreadings would be 3x-4x. China released 100k positives, if you suspect there will be more people sick than hospitals, chaos would ensue, long ques outside hospital, people dying etc. And so far that hasn't happened or we would have known.

 

[NinjaFletch]

I thought Derbyshire police putting black dye in the lagoon was a bit shitty. Stopping people to make sure they have good reasons to be out is one thing, but fecking with the landscape to make it less appealing just seems like an asshole move.

If it was actually anything of value then I'd agree, but it's a toxic, acidic literal dump that happens to have turned a nice colour through sheer chance of all the rubbish corroding in it.

 

[redshaw]

Tweet

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https://www.elmundo.es/andalucia/2020/03/31/5e824c9ffdddff906a8b4608.html

 

[Dr. StrangeHate]

Just hearing that Chris Cuomo of CNN has Covid-19

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/media/chris-cuomo-coronavirus/index.html

Trump's tweet incoming. Depending on how often the Cuomo's meet, the governor might get it as well.

 

[Skills]

Surely the China numbers look less and less likely? But I fully acknolwedge that I have no facts to back it up but more of logical conclusion, stepping into conspiracy theories.

Yes.

This curve of their recovery just looks artificially manufactured after the 'peak'.

Increasingly, I think them changing the testing criteria halfway through was done just to muddy the data to stop anyone looking into any deeper when they started announcing recoveries.

 

[horsechoker]

Tweet

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https://www.elmundo.es/andalucia/2020/03/31/5e824c9ffdddff906a8b4608.html

Now do classical gas

 

[Water Melon]

Donating to poor countries/hospitals who will never be able to afford it.

Fooking brilliant answer.