SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Foxbatt]

Fair points. Like you, I do not trust China's numbers and that they have contained it.

I ordered some at ebay, waiting, then not touching them for another few days. I barely go out nowadays, but when I go to the supermarket, I would prefer to have a mask.


If done right, it could. So they can send doctors from one state to another. However, I don't think that is going to happen, the federal government is failing to coordinate states to buy ventilators, cannot imagine them being organized so well as to send doctors and nurses from New York to Florida for example. On the other side, they can send these hospital ships, build new hospitals and so on, if the peak does not happen at the same time in most states.

In any case, it is definitely better than the peak happening at the same time everywhere (in which case you can expect close to 10k deaths per day if it is as bad as Spain).

This is where you may not understand what happens in Asia. They always wear masks and treat anything with suspicion. When this happened in Wuhan the masks came out immediately and that contribute to the control of it getting out of hand out of Hubei.
The same way they controlled it in Taiwan and South Korea.
If the west had taken the same actions even in January things would have been under control. Even now there is no quarantine or forced isolation as they still have in China and even South Korea.

 

[Revan]

Shame they didn't use no mask as a control.

I believe it would have been 100% 'infected' mannequins. Poor mannequins, RIP!

But surely, the viral load on those with masks, and those without masks should have been tested too.

 

[Enigma_87]

100% disagree with you, to the point that I think you are sharing a dangerous point of view.
Whats more, any issue you raise would be solved by a simple but mass public health messaging campaign.

Eric Weinstein Says Mask Misinformation is "Deadly Nonsense" | Joe Rogan

As I've already said - if people follow the instructions of how to wear a mask. Don't contaminate the mask, replace it every hour or two (with clean hands), don't touch their face trying to fixate it, replace it when it's damp, don't let it to be damp on the outside too, because that would build up bacteria on the inside too - it would be much better.

But, there is a huge but, it won't stop the virus aerosols to come in contact with your mouth and nose, it just simply doesn't have that particle filter.

If you guarantee that wearing one doesn't have side effects and stops the virus 100% then I would gladly follow suit, but as of now there is plenty of evidence it doesn't offer that protection, simply because the filter isn't done to offer it.

You can consult with pretty much every doctor and he will tell you how long these masks are good for and whether or not they build up bacteria and other viruses.

 

[Revan]

No That would mean the efficiency in those cases would be 100%, whilst the highest efficiency shown was 45% and in some cases less than 30%.

the 33% is the mean of how much particles the filter(mask) stopped in those three cases, but in no case it stopped 100% of the virus.

But then, it had only a 90% efficiency. Which makes it kind of useless (even if only 10% of droplets get in, you'll get infected). Which means, why the doctors are using them in the first place (if that is the case)?

Dunno, I don't know much about this topic, so for me it was more common sense rather than anything (and well that South Korea's doctor saying so, in addition to now WHO and Fauci reinforcing the point).

 

[Revan]

If BoJo told me it was dark outside at night I'd have a look to make sure.

Well, I made a caricature of the situation. I believe it was more like 'I am respecting the government's guidelines, so I am going to the pub. When the government decides otherwise, then I start doing social distancing'. Which is kind of nuts, considering the clowns who are in the government (and the UK arguably having the worst response to the crisis from all rich countries).

 

[Revan]

As I've already said - if people follow the instructions of how to wear a mask. Don't contaminate the mask, replace it every hour or two (with clean hands), don't touch their face trying to fixate it, replace it when it's damp, don't let it to be damp on the outside too, because that would build up bacteria on the inside too - it would be much better.

But, there is a huge but, it won't stop the virus aerosols to come in contact with your mouth and nose, it just simply doesn't have that particle filter.

If you guarantee that wearing one doesn't have side effects and stops the virus 100% then I would gladly follow suit, but as of now there is plenty of evidence it doesn't offer that protection, simply because the filter isn't done to offer it.

You can consult with pretty much every doctor and he will tell you how long these masks are good for and whether or not they build up bacteria and other viruses.

I think this guideline is more for doctors, who are dealing with contaminated people. For normal people, it probably should be okay to replace it when they enter home, rather than every two hours.

The bacteria should not be a problem if you regularly replace them. If you start reusing them, then yes, it would become risky.

At the end of the day, even if it offers 0 protection to the wearer, but it reduces (to a large degree) him from spreading the virus to the others, then people should wear them. Especially considering the large number of asymptomatic infected people.

 

[Dumbstar]

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Horrific.

I almost threw up.

 

[Enigma_87]

But then, it had only a 90% efficiency. Which makes it kind of useless (even if only 10% of droplets get in, you'll get infected). Which means, why the doctors are using them in the first place (if that is the case)?

Dunno, I don't know much about this topic, so for me it was more common sense rather than anything (and well that South Korea's doctor saying so, in addition to now WHO and Fauci reinforcing the point).

Which is my point

Medical staff shouldn't be using these masks(surgical ones). There is a reason why we have so many health workers sick with the virus. Bear in mind that 80% of the people that get it doesn't have any symptoms at all, yet the numbers of infected doctors and nurses is staggering.

What has been done in many places is equip nurses and doctors with proper masks and even full kit protection that eliminates even 1% of getting infected. The problem is - the shortage of such equipment as it is a global pandemic.

There are also practices for every health worker of how he should handle sick patients and how they should protect themselves.

Personally - if you can - buy the N95 mask(respirators) - that should take care of normal daily activities and keep you protected. The big problem is the shortage of those masks both domestically and abroad, which also leads to catch 22 as those masks should be used first and foremost by health workers.

 

[sammsky1]

If you guarantee that wearing one doesn't have side effects and stops the virus 100% then I would gladly follow suit, but as of now there is plenty of evidence it doesn't offer that protection, simply because the filter isn't done to offer it.

I don't think anyone on the planet has ever suggested that masks offer 100% protection, so that's a ridiculous goalpost to measure against.

As I wrote many times already, in addition to handwashing with soap and physical distancing, wearing a face mask will further reduce chances of covid19 infection, if properly used.
Even if improperly used, it they can still reduce chances of infection.
To reduce chances of misuse, authorities simply have to issue a public health campaign.

Also, you don't have to do anything. You're welcome to be like Trump and not wear one .
But discouraging others to do so, based on whimsical google search copy/paste peer reviews is very irresponsible.

 

[Revan]

Which is my point

Medical staff shouldn't be using these masks(surgical ones). There is a reason why we have so many health workers sick with the virus. Bear in mind that 80% of the people that get it doesn't have any symptoms at all, yet the numbers of infected doctors and nurses is staggering.

What has been done in many places is equip nurses and doctors with proper masks and even full kit protection that eliminates even 1% of getting infected. The problem is - the shortage of such equipment as it is a global pandemic.

There are also practices for every health worker of how he should handle sick patients and how they should protect themselves.

Personally - if you can - buy the N95 mask(respirators) - that should take care of normal daily activities and keep you protected. The big problem is the shortage of those masks both domestically and abroad, which also leads to catch 22 as those masks should be used first and foremost by health workers.

Sorry, I meant that even N95 had only 90% efficiency. And those are the masks that the nurses and doctors are wearing (when there is no shortage).

I wouldn't buy N95 in these circumstances. Those should be kept for medical staff, while us peasants should wear the others. And when the production increases (capitalist country, it will inevitably happen) then everyone should wear a N95. Until the vaccine comes.

I can only imagine myself wearing a N95 in the office when the constraints get relaxed. Near as bad as working from home.

 

[TMDaines]

Reading all this mask discussion begs me to ask whether people are aware of the main purpose of medical professionals wearing surgical masks? It ain't to protect the medical professional from airborne bacteria and viruses in fine particles. Mass distribution of them is just a waste of time, money and carbon, even supposing they are used with best practice and don't contribute to a false sense of security and inadvertent contamination on removal.

As a member of the public, if you don't already have a small supply of FFP2/3 masks that you know how to don and doff correctly and that can be cycled to allow natural decontamination to occur, it's too late to get meaningful protection.

 

[0le]

Reading all this mask discussion begs me to ask whether people are aware of the main purpose of medical professionals wearing surgical masks? It ain't to protect the medical professional from airborne bacteria and viruses in fine particles. Mass distribution of them is just a waste of time, money and carbon, even supposing they are used with best practice and don't contribute to a false sense of security and inadvertent contamination on removal.

Yes, you are correct and it has been stated several times. Whether people listen on the other hand...

 

[Prometheus]

Bear in mind that 80% of the people that get it doesn't have any symptoms at all, yet the numbers of infected doctors and nurses is staggering.

Where did you get the 80% from? And why would you expect it to mean less doctors and nurses would be infected?

 

[sammsky1]

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Horrific.

Cant get close to imagining suffering the boy went through alone, and the suffering his parents are going through now, and in years to come.
May he rest in peace, and may his parents also find peace. Amin.

 

[Foxbatt]

I don't think anyone on the planet has ever suggested that masks offer 100% protection, so that's a ridiculous goalpost to measure against.

As I wrote many times already, in addition to handwashing with soap and physical distancing, wearing a face mask will further reduce chances of covid19 infection, if properly used.
Even if improperly used, it they can still reduce chances of infection.
To reduce chances of misuse, authorities simply have to issue a public health campaign.

Also, you don't have to do anything. You're welcome to be like Trump and not wear one .
But discouraging others to do so, based on whimsical google search copy/paste peer reviews is very irresponsible.

You are correct. Masks and non surgical masks especially doesn't stop the infection 100%.
What masks do for the ordinary people is stop them infecting others. If everyone wears a mask the virus doesn't get beyond the mask and get stuck in the mask. The virus is not an airborne virus that can fly from one person to another. It does by respiratory droplets. So if everyone wears a mask it's actually a lot better than even washing hands all the time. Yes washing hands is imperative if you touch your nose or mouth.
These are two complementary issues.

 

[Enigma_87]

I don't think anyone on the planet has ever suggested that masks offer 100% protection, so that's a ridiculous goalpost to measure against.

As I wrote many times already, in addition to handwashing with soap and physical distancing, wearing a face mask will further reduce chances of covid19 infection, if properly used.
Even if improperly used, it they can still reduce chances of infection.
To reduce chances of misuse, authorities simply have to issue a public health campaign.

Also, you don't have to do anything. You're welcome to be like Trump and not wear one .
But discouraging others to do so, based on whimsical google search copy/paste peer reviews is very irresponsible.

Mate, ask any doctor, immunologist, virologist, or someone who is in that practices how much protection those surgical masks offer you and take that decision to yourself then.

Ask him whether or not and how bacteria's are build on those surfaces and what happens if they are not properly used.

For some it might reduce the chance of infection, for others - might lead to infection.

No matter how much resources and public health campaigns you will do, people will still be misusing them because it impedes their breathing and they involuntarily act accordingly.

My point is - those masks should not be made mandatory. Everyone is free to make an educated decision after a health campaign, but you can't make it required when you go outside.

You do know how many people suffer from asthma. Do you know what will happen to those people and their breathing if they are required to wear a mask every time they go to the grocery store at 30-35C in the Summer season and wait on the long lines to buy food?

 

[Paxi]

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Seems to be some horrible news on my timeline. Sorry to be the bearer of these terrible tweets.

May he rest in peace.

 

[Enigma_87]

Where did you get the 80% from? And why would you expect it to mean less doctors and nurses would be infected?

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

It's the widely accepted number from most studies that 80% of the people show mild symptoms and never know they are infected.

I didn't quite understand your second question, though, sorry.

 

[0le]

You are correct. Masks and non surgical masks especially doesn't stop the infection 100%.
What masks do for the ordinary people is stop them infecting others. If everyone wears a mask the virus doesn't get beyond the mask and get stuck in the mask. The virus is not an airborne virus that can fly from one person to another. It does by respiratory droplets. So if everyone wears a mask it's actually a lot better than even washing hands all the time. Yes washing hands is imperative if you touch your nose or mouth.
These are two complementary issues.

Think about the numbers involved. There are what, 70 million people in the UK or whatever. You have to give the vast majority of them masks. Lets be conservative and say 15 million because everyone else is self isolating and not going out. You then need to manufacture several masks for each person per day because they can only be used once and you need to maintain this production everyday for the duration of the pandemic. Lets say you need 2 for every person per day. So that is 30 million masks to produce per day. This means you need to have all the raw materials available, you need to have the workers available to help make them, the factories ready and the delivery and implementation ready to get them to all the members of the public daily for the duration of the pandemic.

Regardless of your viewpoint about the masks, put that to one side. From a production and implementation point of view, even if you adjust the numbers, in my mind it doesn't seem very easy to achieve the goal you want.

 

[Prometheus]

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

It's the widely accepted number from most studies that 80% of the people show mild symptoms and never know they are infected.

I didn't quite understand your second question, though, sorry.

It says

Asymptomatic infection has been reported, but the majority of the relatively rare cases who are asymptomatic on the date of identification/report went on to develop disease.

Which is what most studies show.

The 80% refers to the proportion of people who happen to have mild to moderate disease.

Most people infected with COVID-19 virus have mild disease and recover. Approximately 80% of laboratory confirmed patients have had mild to moderate disease, which includes non-pneumonia and pneumonia cases, 13.8% have severe disease

My second question was regarding the bold bit below...

Bear in mind that 80% of the people that get it doesn't have any symptoms at all, yet the numbers of infected doctors and nurses is staggering.

which reads like you expected less doctors and nurses to infected due to the 80% figure (but it doesn't matter anyway since this isn't true).

 

[sammsky1]

Mate, ask any doctor, immunologist, virologist, or someone who is in that practices how much protection those surgical masks offer you and take that decision to yourself then.
No matter how much resources and public health campaigns you will do, people will still be misusing them because it impedes their breathing and they involuntarily act accordingly.
My point is - those masks should not be made mandatory. Everyone is free to make an educated decision after a health campaign, but you can't make it required when you go outside.

We are going around in circles and you are also being disingenuous by continually changing the goal posts on what you are advocating.
No-one said it should be mandatory, and I pointed out in a previous post that it's not even law in mask wearing cultures like NE & SE Asia, let alone getting close to that in the west. It's still a personal choice all over the world.
But its also the choice of others to avoid you if you wont wear one: Eg - since covid19 shutdown in Phuket, 7/11 wont allow you in their store if you're not wearing one.
My point to you however is consistent: it's irresponsible to advise people not to wear face masks in this current climate. Unless you have anything new to add, let's leave it there.
PS: I've taken my advice from my 2 sisters: One is a doctor consultant and other is a physio, both currently engaged on NHS frontline right now.

 

[Based Adnan]

My local tescos has made the entire store one way and blocked off certain entrances to aisles. Literally the most stupid thing going as it just forces everyone to go into the same spaces to navigate the store. Also makes doing the shop an absolute ballache and much longer than it should.

 

[Ekkie Thump]

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

It's the widely accepted number from most studies that 80% of the people show mild symptoms and never know they are infected.

I didn't quite understand your second question, though, sorry.

I'd like this to be true, but it doesn't seem to be I'm afraid, at least not from the report you're citing so hopefully you have other sources. What it does say in that report is that 80% of confirmed cases (100% of whom clearly know they are infected) have mild to moderate disease and that includes those suffering from pneumonia.

Here is the relevant section:

Most people infected with COVID-19 virus have mild disease and recover. Approximately 80% of laboratory confirmed patients have had mild to moderate disease, which includes non-pneumonia and pneumonia cases, 13.8% have severe disease (dyspnea, respiratory frequency ≥30/minute, blood oxygen saturation ≤93%, PaO2/FiO2 ratio <300, and/or lung infiltrates >50% of the lung field within 24-48 hours) and 6.1% are critical (respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure). Asymptomatic infection has been reported, but the majority of the relatively rare cases who are asymptomatic on the date of identification/report went on to develop disease. The proportion of truly asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare and does not appear to be a major driver of transmission

 

[Sir Matt]

She's said they've had people transferred in from there before. Wouldn't surprise me.

Hopefully they'll tell us how they did it. Them folks at Duke are smart.

To be clear, Greenville, NC.

They've shared the protocols on how to do it. It requires some specific equipment, but apparently most pharmaceutical countries and some hospitals have the capability to do it.

https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/27/d...n-peroxide-to-clean-n95-face-masks-for-reuse/

 

[Organic Potatoes]

This mask stuff is about to do my head in.

I don’t even know if I should be wearing gloves at this point, but if I go get food without either it feels like people will be looking at me like I am a danger to society.

 

[barros]

This video is from South Korea and they explain why using a mask is important.

 

[klayton88]

My local tescos has made the entire store one way and blocked off certain entrances to aisles. Literally the most stupid thing going as it just forces everyone to go into the same spaces to navigate the store. Also makes doing the shop an absolute ballache and much longer than it should.

Morrisons have done the same. It serves a purpose though. You can only access the tills via the last isle and they have a bouncer telling you when you can and can't move forward and if you have the correct footwear on. It's not ideal but it does work.

 

[Garethw]

The main point being made has been that they likely make very little difference in protecting you from infection and there has been a worldwide shortage for medical staff so people hoarding them was doing more harm than good.

Exactly!

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Horrific.

Bless his little heart.

 

[Revan]

I'd like this to be true, but it doesn't seem to be I'm afraid, at least not from the report you're citing so hopefully you have other sources. What it does say in that report is that 80% of confirmed cases (100% of whom clearly know they are infected) have mild to moderate disease and that includes those suffering from pneumonia.

Here is the relevant section:

Yep, unfortunately, it seems that the number of asymptotic cases is much lower than we hoped: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/articl...asymptomatic-silent-carrier-spread-contagious

It seems that it can be anywhere from 20%-80% or so, with some research putting it even lower than 20% https://eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180

 

[Enigma_87]

It says
Which is what most studies show.

The 80% refers to the proportion of people who happen to have mild to moderate disease.



My second question was regarding the bold bit below...
which reads like you expected less doctors and nurses to infected due to the 80% figure (but it doesn't matter anyway since this isn't true).

My point was that many of the health workers that might have got it - are not confirmed cases, as they are not tested all the time and might have already build antibodies and recovered.

When you have 80% of the confirmed cases showing mild to moderate symptoms, that most likely means many other health workers are not confirmed and most likely being infected, despite masks and other protective kits - which was the point of the argument.

Those who wear surgical masks don't really offer much protection, which was the point in case. There are examples of full body kits that do offer 100% protection(or lets say 99.99%) and that are already in use in many places.

Anyhow it's a bit deviation of the point of how much common mask help you not to get infected.

 

[Revan]

This video is from South Korea and they explain why using a mask is important.

This is the interview I mentioned several times today.

 

[Prometheus]

My point was that many of the health workers that might have got it - are not confirmed cases, as they are not tested all the time and might have already build antibodies and recovered.

When you have 80% of the confirmed cases showing mild to moderate symptoms, that most likely means many other health workers are not confirmed and most likely being infected, despite masks and other protective kits - which was the point of the argument.

Those who wear surgical masks don't really offer much protection, which was the point in case. There are examples of full body kits that do offer 100% protection(or lets say 99.99%) and that are already in use in many places.

Anyhow it's a bit deviation of the point of how much common mask help you not to get infected.

But health workers are being isolated for showing mild and moderate symptoms. Mild to moderate diseases means you don't require hospitalisation. You may be misunderstanding this. Anyway, my own mask may not protect me personally from catching it but as @Foxbatt said above and the Korean doctors in the above video are saying, if you're near me and I'm infected then it's going to protect you from catching it from me. Ergo, it works.

 

[nimic]

In the span of 24 hours, Suedesi essentially went from "are we overreacting to the Coronavirus, and do we know it's actually killing people?" to "if you don't use a mask you're basically a murderer, and here are 10 links that agree with me."

 

[Flying_Heckfish]

if you have the correct footwear on.

flashbacks

 

[Enigma_87]

We are going around in circles and you are also being disingenuous by continually changing the goal posts on what you are advocating.
No-one said it should be mandatory, and I pointed out in a previous post that it's not even law in mask wearing cultures like NE & SE Asia, let alone getting close to that in the west. It's still a personal choice all over the world.
But its also the choice of others to avoid you if you wont wear one: Eg - since covid19 shutdown in Phuket, 7/11 wont allow you in their store if you're not wearing one.
My point to you however is consistent: it's irresponsible to advise people not to wear face masks in this current climate. Unless you have anything new to add, let's leave it there.
PS: I've taken my advice from my 2 sisters: One is a doctor consultant and other is a physio, both currently engaged on NHS frontline right now.

The argument began when Suedesi said that the mask protects him and the others which I countered of how much it protects you and the others and what can be the side effects if you don't wear it properly or if you don't follow the good practice. Then he numerous time in imperious tone told us to wear it which sounded pretty much like a requirement to me.

On the bolded - it really isn't - as it is compulsory in Austria, Czech Republic and couple of other countries, currently.

I didn't say anywhere don't wear it - I said multiple times why I don't wear it and what kind of side effects it might have if not worn or changed properly, but it's up to the individual to decide for himself, to me every extreme leaves to negative effects.

 

[Enigma_87]

But health workers are being isolated for showing mild and moderate symptoms. Mild to moderate diseases means you don't require hospitalisation. You may be misunderstanding this. Anyway, my own mask may not protect me personally from catching it but as @Foxbatt said above and the Korean doctors in the above video are saying, if you're near me and I'm infected then it's going to protect you from catching it from me. Ergo, it works.

If you sneeze in the mask and you are infected, that mask still won't stop all virus particles simply because it doesn't have the adequate filter for that and I might still get infected if you are close enough(with or without mask) or in a closed space. This is what I'm saying.

Sick people are required to wear masks, because it limits the amount of particles they let out. However for healthy people it's a different thing as it impedes their breathing and there is a big chance of contaminating the mask by touching it and getting infected without a direct contact. That and building other types of bacteria which will reduce their immune system unrelated to the virus.

 

[justboy68]

I don't think anyone expects a simple surgical mask to grant you complete protection or anything like that, but surely the logical premise is that in a community where everybody wears one, it should reduce the community transmission at least a little bit? I mean it's just one other minor layer isn't it? We all know at this point you can be asymptomatic and be spreading the virus, so if it can catch at least some of your droplets it will be doing something of value.

Anyway the simple surgical ones are not so hard to wear and if you chose not to wear one where I am, you'd receive the most admonishing looks, so easiest to just go along with it.

I think it's important to make the distinction between the more hardcore N95's and the simple surgical ones. The N95's should absolutely be reserved for those on the frontline in countries where they are in short supply. Surely the other ones are widely available though right? Or are the shortages in the west much worse than I realised?

 

[Enigma_87]

I'd like this to be true, but it doesn't seem to be I'm afraid, at least not from the report you're citing so hopefully you have other sources. What it does say in that report is that 80% of confirmed cases (100% of whom clearly know they are infected) have mild to moderate disease and that includes those suffering from pneumonia.

Here is the relevant section:

I think I didn't put it correctly in the first place. The big issue with this virus is how contagious it is, how long it stays in the body and also how easy it is to catch it.

When 80% of the confirmed cases show some mild to moderate symptoms I think it's fairly safe to assume that most likely the reported, confirmed cases are a lot lower than the actual numbers of affected people. For example if you already have recovered from the virus your test will be negative and those medical workers that are exposed to it on the frontline on daily basis most likely have all gotten it and large part have recovered from it without being confirmed - as they didn't show symptoms and there is global shortage of tests to do them on daily basis. Anyhow the main topic was how surgical masks protect you and I think we're deviating from it here.

 

[Wibble]

No That would mean the efficiency in those cases would be 100%, whilst the highest efficiency shown was 45% and in some cases less than 30%.

the 33% is the mean of how much particles the filter(mask) stopped in those three cases, but in no case it stopped 100% of the virus.

So how we also need to know how viral load affects infections rate and severity of

I believe it would have been 100% 'infected' mannequins. Poor mannequins, RIP!

But surely, the viral load on those with masks, and those without masks should have been tested too.

You would assume but I'd like to be sure.

 

[Prometheus]

... as they didn't show symptoms and there is global shortage of tests to do them on daily basis.

Well, they would show symptoms if they had mild to moderate disease. You're still confusing asymptomatic with symptomatic but not severe.