SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[2cents]

They are having circa 100 deaths per day (and only 3.3k in total) which is kind of unbelievable. They were hit very early and very hard, some of their high level officials die (which probably means that it was very spread), they have the same population as Germany, are in relative poverty, have large families, yet somehow their deaths lag behind Italy/Spain/France/UK. Looks kind of fishy.

I’m absolutely sure that Iran’s official numbers are not a true reflection of their situation.* By a long way. But I don’t think this necessarily means they’re lying about it, just that they don’t have the infrastructure and capacity to accurately measure the true depth of their crisis. I wouldn’t be surprised if there are over ten thousand deaths due to Covid-19 in Iran which have gone under the radar simply because the authorities are overwhelmed and don’t actually know the true figures.

For what it’s worth (not much to me as it happens) the weird opposition MEK group estimates Iran’s true death toll to stand close to 17,000.

*(edit): reports now suggest the same is true of certain other countries, though perhaps not by the same magnitude.

 

[4bars]

I’m absolutely sure that Iran’s official numbers are not a true reflection of their situation.* By a long way. But I don’t think this necessarily means they’re lying about it, just that they don’t have the infrastructure and capacity to accurately measure the true depth of their crisis. I wouldn’t be surprised if there are over ten thousand deaths due to Covid-19 in Iran which have gone under the radar simply because the authorities are overwhelmed and don’t actually know the true figures.

For what it’s worth (not much to me as it happens) the weird opposition MEK group estimates Iran’s true death toll to stand close to 17,000.

*(edit): reports now suggest the same is true of certain other countries, though perhaps not by the same magnitude.

Video is in spanish but basically in Ecuador (Guayaquil in particular) they are leaving the corpses on the street sometimes 5 days and end them burning. In another video that I can't find, a politician said that they are trying to remove more than 100 corpses a day when ecuador only register (the whole country, not only Guayaquil) 145 right now.

If in Italy is difficult to register all the deaths, imagine those countries with less resources. We underestimate the infected official numbers vs the reals but as well with the deaths and for quite a lot. One day the numbers will resurface and with be even more apaling

 

[Moiraine]

What was the death toll in Italy yesterday?
Is it decreasing?

 

[worldgonemad]

Interesting stories coming out that america have been hijacking orders of facemasks due for canada and france, even to the point of diverting the orders en route. Quite rightly Canada and france are outraged. Then i came across this article :

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...WMAN6BAgIEAE&usg=AOvVaw3anTrQKSL7sf1vx1S3fsTK

Basically, puts into perspective how every country is probably doing the same thing
Im surprised there hasnt been more news reports about why there are such shortages and how countries are actively preventing other countries from getting supplies rather than just banging on about the lack of ppe.

This to me is just the tip of what could be a bigger story when ( and if) a vaccine is developed. It will be a free for all bidding war, highest bidder first situation with countries stockpiling way more than they need, while poor countries cant get the bare minimum. I would like to see some debate as to the planning for when a vaccine is developed, before it actually is, so as to have a workable plan in place.

 

[redshaw]

What was the death toll in Italy yesterday?
Is it decreasing?

766 deaths

Slight increase from previous days. I'd say it's leveling off and has been back and forth in the 800-700 range.

Good news is the daily cases have dropped to 4.5k from 6.5k. Deaths will have a long lag time.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

What was the death toll in Italy yesterday?
Is it decreasing?

766 and still 4000 in a serious/critical state so doubtful it'll decrease for a while yet.

 

[vidic blood & sand]

Not sure if this has been posted but it is extremely positive news.

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/anti-parasitic-drug-kills-covid-19-in-lab-c-955457

Significant reduction in 24 hrs with complete elimination in 48 hrs is extremely promising.

Another good news is coming out of China about asymptomatic cases being 80% of the cases.

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj...ampaign=usage&utm_content=daily&utm_term=text

Sounds like they're just trying everything. Even Marmite is worth a shot.

 

[vidic blood & sand]

Snuck an Express link in there and now I feel dirty.

This paper has a horrible record of forecasting. They literally just make stuff up.

Unlike the others?

 

[DavelinaJolie]

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/coronavirus-adviser-pm-wants-herd-21811857

The coming few weeks.

 

[cyberman]

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/coronavirus-adviser-pm-wants-herd-21811857

The coming few weeks.

I cant believe hes saying this with the worst still to come.
Fecking ridiculous

 

[4bars]

Interesting stories coming out that america have been hijacking orders of facemasks due for canada and france, even to the point of diverting the orders en route. Quite rightly Canada and france are outraged. Then i came across this article :

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...WMAN6BAgIEAE&usg=AOvVaw3anTrQKSL7sf1vx1S3fsTK

Basically, puts into perspective how every country is probably doing the same thing
Im surprised there hasnt been more news reports about why there are such shortages and how countries are actively preventing other countries from getting supplies rather than just banging on about the lack of ppe.

This to me is just the tip of what could be a bigger story when ( and if) a vaccine is developed. It will be a free for all bidding war, highest bidder first situation with countries stockpiling way more than they need, while poor countries cant get the bare minimum. I would like to see some debate as to the planning for when a vaccine is developed, before it actually is, so as to have a workable plan in place.

The same happened with 150 respirators that Spain paid and when it was about to take of from Istanbul, Turkey hijacked all of them + other material for themselves.

Is war and will leave deep scars in international relationships.

 

[Adamsk7]

What was the death toll in Italy yesterday?
Is it decreasing?

It’s more of a straight line at the moment but they are past the worst, I believe.

 

[Moiraine]

766 deaths

Slight increase from previous days. I'd say it's leveling off and has been back and forth in the 800-700 range.

Good news is the daily cases have dropped to 4.5k from 6.5k. Deaths will have a long lag time.

766 and still 4000 in a serious/critical state so doubtful it'll decrease for a while yet.

It’s more of a straight line at the moment but they are past the worst, I believe.

Thanks guys.
I am still hoping there’s a breakthrough in potential vaccine.

If scientists find a vaccine in next two-three weeks, how long it will take to reach the world, especially densely populated poor countries?

 

[Heardy]

Thanks guys.
I am still hoping there’s a breakthrough in potential vaccine.

If scientists find a vaccine in next two-three weeks, how long it will take to reach the world, especially densely populated poor countries?

From what I’ve read, A vaccine is over 12 months away

 

[FrantikChicken]

Thanks guys.
I am still hoping there’s a breakthrough in potential vaccine.

If scientists find a vaccine in next two-three weeks, how long it will take to reach the world, especially densely populated poor countries?

A vaccine will take like 18months to develop at best, not 2-3 weeks.

 

[arnie_ni]

I’m absolutely sure that Iran’s official numbers are not a true reflection of their situation.* By a long way. But I don’t think this necessarily means they’re lying about it, just that they don’t have the infrastructure and capacity to accurately measure the true depth of their crisis. I wouldn’t be surprised if there are over ten thousand deaths due to Covid-19 in Iran which have gone under the radar simply because the authorities are overwhelmed and don’t actually know the true figures.

For what it’s worth (not much to me as it happens) the weird opposition MEK group estimates Iran’s true death toll to stand close to 17,000.

*(edit): reports now suggest the same is true of certain other countries, though perhaps not by the same magnitude.

There's no way countries like india or african countries will have the infrastructure to test and count the deaths from this

 

[kouroux]

Not sure if this has been posted but it is extremely positive news.

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/anti-parasitic-drug-kills-covid-19-in-lab-c-955457

A french professor talked about this months ago now and slowly he's turning heads in France after being considered as a mad man at first.
@JPRouve I just watched on LCI a doctor say that we should consider the reluctance of many of doctors have of using plaquenil+azythromicine as caused by the presure they are put under big labs who are racing for a vaccine. Imaginine curing most covid 19 cases with cheap medicine, I'm sure it would piss off some greedy cnuts at the helm of certain companies

 

[Adamsk7]

Thanks guys.
I am still hoping there’s a breakthrough in potential vaccine.

If scientists find a vaccine in next two-three weeks, how long it will take to reach the world, especially densely populated poor countries?

About a year at best. There’s no miracle to this, we’ve just gotta ride it out best we can.

 

[Sky1981]

A french professor talked about this months ago now and slowly he's turning heads in France after being considered as a mad man at first.
@JPRouve I just watched on LCI a doctor say that we should consider the reluctance of many of doctors have of using plaquenil+azythromicine as caused by the presure they are put under big labs who are racing for a vaccine. Imaginine curing most covid 19 cases with cheap medicine, I'm sure it would piss off some greedy cnuts at the helm of certain companies

I'm bit skeptical of pharmacy company making super normal profit out of the corona vaccine, whoever comes out with it first.

You'd imagine ANY government in the world would force them to release the formula for mass production.The amount of pressure from worldwide community would be too huge if certain pharmaceutical company choose to be exclusive with it, there will be riots on the streets if those medicines are only for the rich.

Right now people are somewhat accepting that shit happens, imagine if there's people dying and there lies the medicine but only if you can afford it. You can be sure riots and looting will happen.

 

[pratyush_utd]

A french professor talked about this months ago now and slowly he's turning heads in France after being considered as a mad man at first.
@JPRouve I just watched on LCI a doctor say that we should consider the reluctance of many of doctors have of using plaquenil+azythromicine as caused by the presure they are put under big labs who are racing for a vaccine. Imaginine curing most covid 19 cases with cheap medicine, I'm sure it would piss off some greedy cnuts at the helm of certain companies

I dont think its the same med as the french doctor said. This one is different although parasite medicine only.

I also have this suspicion about pharam companies using their lobby to delay the trial. Although now since Trump has mentioned it, maybe that mad b**tard end up doing one good thing of finding whether it works or not

 

[redshaw]

Italy data

 

[fergieisold]

Sorry if I'm being pedantic, but what you've written is not strictly true.

Four starting premise:
1. Covid19 spreads 'person to person' OR 'person touching contaminated surface with hand and then placing near mouth, nose or eyes'.
2. People touch their face 200+ times a day.
3. Masks are effective at capturing droplets, which is a main transmission route of coronavirus, and some studies have estimated a roughly fivefold protection versus no barrier alone . https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ect-me-from-coronavirus-covid-19-myths-busted
4. The evidence says mask reduce likelihood of covid19 airborne particles from entering your mouth or nose, but not 100% guarantee .

Scenario: Let's say I'm infected but asymptomatic, so not in strict quarantine but following social distancing. When out of home, wearing mask stops me from spreading covid19 particles onto my hand, which I could then spread onto surfaces, which others would later touch eg: (eg a shopping basket, trolly or a door handle). Next person who touches surface also not wearing mask, then touches mouth/nose and could get infected.
In that instance, wearing a mask helps me not to spread covid19, and not wearing mask has acted as a 'spreading' agent, and would contribute to infecting others.

Scenario: Let's say I'm uninfected. I wear a mask outside. Unknowingly I touch a surface in a shop where covid19 was alive (eg a shopping basket, trolly or a door handle). Because I'm wearing a mask, it reminds me not to touch face with hand until I get out of shop or get home. After I leave shop or when I get home, I wash hands with soap or use 60%+ alcohol based hand sanitiser. Then take off mask and can touch my face without risk.
In that instance, the mask has acted as a 'protection' barrier, and most likely saved me from being infected.

Honestly this is my gut instinct, it's just quite hard when looking through the science papers to find a lot of good evidence to support it. I think the problems are the types of masks, surgical masks probably aren't that great at preventing the size of particles. as there's no real seal around the face to stop the virus being drawn around the sides of the mask when breathing.

 

[kouroux]

I'm bit skeptical of pharmacy company making super normal profit out of the corona vaccine, whoever comes out with it first.

You'd imagine ANY government in the world would force them to release the formula for mass production.The amount of pressure from worldwide community would be too huge if certain pharmaceutical company choose to be exclusive with it, there will be riots on the streets if those medicines are only for the rich.

Right now people are somewhat accepting that shit happens, imagine if there's people dying and there lies the medicine but only if you can afford it. You can be sure riots and looting will happen.

That's what he said and he's been dealing in that world for a long time. I'm taking anything he says as gospel but he makes a good point in the way that if there is a way to significantly slow down the covid spread without a vaccine and based on cheap (and old ) medicine then certain labs won't stand to make as much money as they could.

I dont think its the same med as the french doctor said. This one is different although parasite medicine only.

I also have this suspicion about pharam companies using their lobby to delay the trial. Although now since Trump has mentioned it, maybe that mad b**tard end up doing one good thing of finding whether it works or not

You're right, not the same meds but at least based on available meds in the market. We see some of the worst aspect of humanity in these times from random nobodies (people with covid spitting at others as a tiny example) so yeah the big pharm companies trying to financially gain from this wouldn't be a surprise at all

 

[Zlatan 7]

The way i see it. It's better than none. Just dont take it as 100 percent safe.

But you know letting commoners with common sense is never gonna work.

I’m no scientist and really don’t know if this right. But with viral load being possibly a case, would wearing a mask that you’ve contaminated accidentally with covid19 increase the viral load if you’re just walking around with it Stuck to the front of your face constantly breathing it in?

 

[JPRouve]

A french professor talked about this months ago now and slowly he's turning heads in France after being considered as a mad man at first.
@JPRouve I just watched on LCI a doctor say that we should consider the reluctance of many of doctors have of using plaquenil+azythromicine as caused by the presure they are put under big labs who are racing for a vaccine. Imaginine curing most covid 19 cases with cheap medicine, I'm sure it would piss off some greedy cnuts at the helm of certain companies

Not really. The second french clinical test independent from Raoult has shown that most patients don't react to plaquenil+azythromycin and a chinese clinical trial goes in the same direction. Also the argument doesn't actually work when Sanofi, the ones owning plaquenil, increased the production of plaquenil, if anything we should look at the links between Raoult and Sanofi. Angers CHU started a new clinical trial that is supposed to be less amateurish and much larger with 1300 patients. Below you have a researcher from the CNRS explaining where the problem lies with Raoult and his experiment, basically he botched everything.

 

[Wolverine]

A french professor talked about this months ago now and slowly he's turning heads in France after being considered as a mad man at first.
@JPRouve I just watched on LCI a doctor say that we should consider the reluctance of many of doctors have of using plaquenil+azythromicine as caused by the presure they are put under big labs who are racing for a vaccine. Imaginine curing most covid 19 cases with cheap medicine, I'm sure it would piss off some greedy cnuts at the helm of certain companies

I'm sorry but if there was an evidence-based way of treating this it would be given. We are considering everything. All options are being carefully considered. I haven't heard a single one of my colleagues worried about pharmaceutical companies or "pressure" of any sort. Heck I'd give homeopathy if it meant curing COVID-19.
Doctors are independently minded individuals. And we are science based, but we need to consider if giving medications that can potentiate cardiac abnormalities and liver derangement is worth giving based on a small poorly designed study with no useful end points with other studies showing conflicting data.
Plural of anecdote is not data.

 

[pratyush_utd]

Not really. The second french clinical test independent from Raoult has shown that most patients don't react to plaquenil+azythromycin and a chinese clinical trial goes in the same direction. Also the argument doesn't actually work when Sanofi, the ones owning plaquenil, increased the production of plaquenil, if anything we should look at the links between Raoult and Sanofi. Angers CHU started a new clinical trial that is supposed to be less amateurish and much larger with 1300 patients. Below you have a researcher from the CNRS explaining where the problem lies with Raoult and his experiment, basically he botched everything.

Second clinical trial was also not a random test as well. There has been few other test were subjects were immunocompromised and they concluded it doesn't work. It seems like there is an eagerness to prove it doesn't work. French doctors published another test in which they claimed it cured 78/80 patients and recovery time was 6 days which is way less than what it is now. This was also not randomised.

There is a reason why this has been included in WHO trial. We should wait for their result. India, which is the world largest producer, have recommended it for high risk category people only for now.

 

[Sky1981]

I’m no scientist and really don’t know if this right. But with viral load being possibly a case, would wearing a mask that you’ve contaminated accidentally with covid19 increase the viral load if you’re just walking around with it Stuck to the front of your face constantly breathing it in?

Neither am I, it's just common sense that if cough = droplets, than any sort of barrier will help.

Plus, if you're a covid positif the mask isn't mean to help you, it's mean to help the others.

It's like a mouth gag, it's meant to stop you, not shielding you from others. You're the assumed monster, not the victims.

 

[Wolverine]

Not sure if this has been posted but it is extremely positive news.

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/anti-parasitic-drug-kills-covid-19-in-lab-c-955457

Anti-parasitics have never shown any potential as anti-virals in any significant "in vivo" studies that I know. Neurotoxicity is also a concern at higher doses I'd imagine for it do have the kind of antiviral effects seen in the lab.
I wouldn't personally be excited about its potential as a candidate but who knows how it'll do in human trials, right now we'd take anything.

 

[Massive Spanner]

Update in Ireland:

The majority of patients admitted to intensive care units to be treated for Covid-19 are aged under 65.

The latest figures from the Health Protection Surveillance Centre show that of 148 patients admitted to ICU, just 59 of them were over 65, accounting for almost 40%, while the remaining 60% were under 65.

 

[JPRouve]

Second clinical trial was also not a random test as well. There has been few other test were subjects were immunocompromised and they concluded it doesn't work. It seems like there is an eagerness to prove it doesn't work. French doctors published another test in which they claimed it cured 78/80 patients and recovery time was 6 days which is way less than what it is now. This was also not randomised.

There is a reason why this has been included in WHO trial. We should wait for their result. India, which is the world largest producer, have recommended it for high risk category people only for now.

The second trial that you are talking about is from the same doctor who claimed that 65/80 had positive results, none of his work is reliable. There is an actual clinical trial that has been started in Angers including 1300 patients though, we will have a better idea about plaquenil when we have those results.

 

[pratyush_utd]

Anti-parasitics have never shown any potential as anti-virals in any significant "in vivo" studies that I know. Neurotoxicity is also a concern at higher doses I'd imagine for it do have the kind of antiviral effects seen in the lab.
I wouldn't personally be excited about its potential as a candidate but who knows how it'll do in human trials, right now we'd take anything.

Couldn't agree more. I am desperate for a sight of good news. Spending unhealthy hours on various sites learning about various drugs and virus and I am an engineer. Hopefully we find something that works.

 

[BootsyCollins]

Update in Ireland:

Thats a little scary, but also good news if it means Irland been able to keep the virus away from the elders.

 

[berbatrick]

Not sure if this has been posted but it is extremely positive news.

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/anti-parasitic-drug-kills-covid-19-in-lab-c-955457

The promising part in this is that it is already human-approved. But the actual result it has agains Covid can turn out to be pretty meaningless. Many times things in cell culture don't replicate in a body.

 

[Sky1981]

Couldn't agree more. I am desperate for a sight of good news. Spending unhealthy hours on various sites learning about various drugs and virus and I am an engineer. Hopefully we find something that works.

The silver lining is that our earth seems to be healing at a very magical pace, 1-2 months of us slowing down really gets our earth going. Been reading alot of good stuffs happening on that front, maybe that'll cheer you up abit

 

[pratyush_utd]

The silver lining is that our earth seems to be healing at a very magical pace, 1-2 months of us slowing down really gets our earth going. Been reading alot of good stuffs happening on that front, maybe that'll cheer you up abit

It did. Saw a picture in which Himalayas were visible from one city in North India which wasn't possible earlier and it looks stunning. But I want to be able to go there and see it myself .

 

[Grinner]

The silver lining is that our earth seems to be healing at a very magical pace, 1-2 months of us slowing down really gets our earth going. Been reading alot of good stuffs happening on that front, maybe that'll cheer you up abit

We will feck it up again really quickly when given the chance.

 

[Wolverine]

Couldn't agree more. I am desperate for a sight of good news. Spending unhealthy hours on various sites learning about various drugs and virus and I am an engineer. Hopefully we find something that works.

For what its worth I'm sure we will. It's the lives lost and impact that has on families until that point that is what is so demoralising

But we'll get onto the right combination that'll lower mortality rate for our inpatient cohort, I don't think it'll be existing medications. But I think the usual sort of things that make delay vaccine going into bypass I think (hope) will be bypassed, with a few risks, but worth taking.

Right now I think trials are fine. Whether it be hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, BCG, vitamin D etc but its important to highlight that we know what does work, that's preventing people getting sick in the first place.

Healthcare worker PPE, social isolation, social distancing, forensic contact tracing and testing, all of which our government has screwed up amounting to clinical and borderline criminal negligence in my opinion. Had they taken the relevant steps and not listened to behavioural psychologists or politics or whatever their initial strategy was we would have trended more towards a flattened curve earlier.

 

[Maxii]

Thats a little scary, but also good news if it means Irland been able to keep the virus away from the elders.

Unfortunately that’s not the case. There has been clusters of the virus in about 13 nursing homes around the country.

 

[BootsyCollins]

Unfortunately that’s not the case. There has been clusters of the virus in about 13 nursing homes around the country.

Thats sucks man. Same here in Sweden.
This whole situation is horrible.
I almost feel nothing anymore when i read things like ”1000 people dead in 24 hours” And i scare myself a little when the only comfort i can come up with is that most of them was on the last page anyway. Its a dangerous though and feeling to feel so numb to people dying.