SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
The moment I heard that China decided to shut movie theaters again just a few days after they declared the victory and claiming that all new infections are imports, it removed any doubt I had that China was lying all alone. Sure, they had a good action against the virus since January, but they also minimised the numbers in order to show the superiority of their system (especially with big Western countries except Germany failing to do anything right).
WHO should either be disbanded or totally changed. If I was in charge of the US, I wouldn't give them a single penny before their general director gets fired (not even allowed to quit on his own term), there is an investigation of the feckup they did, and deep reforms are done. With the US controlling the purse strings, this should be easy to achieve. Of course, that doesn't give amnesty to anemic action Trump's administration took to prevent or mitigate the disease until mid-March.
We're on the same page, but for one caveat - which is that those who are safe/not at risk will need to get infected over 18 months. We still can't afford to have that many people infected over 18 months, even if they are somehow all from the lowest risk group. There are still a significant number of young people/people without comorbidities who need medical intervention because of this - and though they're at a lower risk of dying once they get medical intervention, if the health care system is overloaded they will also be dying because they won't get a ventilator/oxygen/hospital bed.
Sounds plausible. Norwegian media is reporting the location of every single death, and so far the care homes have slightly higher numbers than hospital deaths. It just goes to show that while we all focused on hospital capacity, very few countries were able to solve the problem of keeping the virus out of care homes.
I didn’t expect France would have such high numbers when was I think the first nation to close schools and other places....maybe I’m wrong
One of the alleged origin of the outbreak happened around two weeks before the lockdown in Mulhouse, an evangelist event, so it was kind of too late for the north east part of the country. At the opposite corner we are kind of fine and fortunate, without the lockdown we would probably be in the same situation.
Glad it's brought you back. To be honest, a once a decade sensible comment average is better than most people's (especially mine).
This has been one of the threads that has been of real value over recent weeks... learned a lot about how spread, face masks, causes, options, discovered the Worldometers website. Sounds twee but Caf has also helped me feel some sort of social link (I'm in week.4 of working from home and it sucks).
Stay safe and remember ...... #Olein
A photo of the "ice palace". An ice rink in Madrid enabled days ago as a morgue.
It´s being said that the death toll could be close to 30,000, about double. There are many virus-related death licenses, but not all of them are counted.
"If a person dies without having undergone the test, in the death part, the last one is considered correct, that is to say, multiple organ failure, respiratory stress, or ,
severe respiratory insufficiency must be included as the immediate cause."
It´s being said that the death toll could be close to 30,000, about double. There are many virus-related death licenses, but not all of them are counted.
"If a person dies without having undergone the test, in the death part, the last one is considered correct, that is to say, multiple organ failure, respiratory stress, or ,
severe respiratory insufficiency must be included as the immediate cause."
I just watch these videos of how these far east countries seem to so much more organized, with mass testing and tracing and think obviously nievley that we shouldnt be so crap, but here we are. And if it meant a bit of privacy lost would help than I'd be fine with that they can track what I do and look at what I Google.
I just like everyone else just wants this over I dread these daily death numbers.
Grim.
Its definitely a social link and very helpful I dont read the papers out of principle. I'm a plumber and the phone isnt ringing so am at home with the family. I'm drinking every night got my gym stuff at home and its hard but I'd go mad without this outward connection.
It is around Strasbourg, right? Our branch in France is located in Strasbourg and my colleague from over there was saying the other day that most people she knows have either been infected or had someone from their close relatives infected. She was infected herself but fortunately it wasn’t that bad, her husband was in a pretty dire state for a while but he pulled through this.
So many countries are close to 10% mortality now... Italy well over that, Spain, France, UK, Netherlands, Belgium. I know the true infected number is much higher than reported but so is probably the number of deaths seemingly.
Poorly formatted post
Have you ever been to China or any authoritarian country? By the way the USA and other major countries have offices in China.
I have been there many times and though it's a dictatorship it's not North Korea. This talk about Urns is a complete bollocks. As for the story of hiding the true fact there is a complete article on this on the New York times as to what exactly happened. Nothing in it is about the federal government hiding it. China is more decentralized than most people think. The provinces have a lot of autonomy including different taxation.
Did the health authority in Wuhan hide it? Absolutely they did. Not only that they censored not only one doctor but most of them who treated this new virus. Did Beijing hide it? Not to any credible source. The Chinese CDC was as puzzled as anyone else about what was going on in Wuhan. This story about how the virus was discovered in November is after the investigation they did. In January when they discovered this was not SARs but a new one was when they alerted not only the WHO but everyone else too
The Chinese CDC even had US consultants working with them in Beijing.
The USA and Korea tested their first case on the same day on around the 23rd of January.
The rest of the world apart from the Asian countries did feck all from that time to beginning of March. That's why it has been so bad in these countries and not because of China or WHO.
You'd think the number of infected people not yet discovered would far outweigh the number of as yet disclosed dead though.
No one's going to do shit to China. They're the ones supplying the PPE and they'll be handing out the loans.
It just tells you how far they are from adequate testing capacity.
Yeah young people live with the elderly, they do and that’s why I said tough decisions and big calls are gonna have to be made by the powers that be. People are going to have to be rehoused, separated etc.
Correct me if I’m wrong but last I read less than 5% of people under 50 required basic hospitalisation, and id a guess a number of those would have had previous health issues. So I’d be amazed if they alone overwhelmed the system or caused it to collapse if they were allowed back into society, considering that at this point in this hypothetical scenario all the high risk people would remain in lockdown. There’ll obviously have to be more data to analyse and manage risk.
At this point in time the health system hasn’t been overwhelmed and that’s despite the fact this virus was open season for everyone up until a few weeks ago. That offers hope.
And yeah a gradual relaxation is what is best for the next few months but I dont think doing it over 18 months is realistic or until a vaccine. It would hinder far too many people.
We're not going to be in lockdown until there is a vaccine.
So, the government need to be frank with the public about what our exit plan is and roughly what the timetable will be. So the public and business can get ready.
So, the government need to be frank with the public about what our exit plan is and roughly what the timetable will be. So the public and business can get ready.
Cabin fever well and truly setting in mate
Keep an eye on some countries in northern Africa as well, although the sample size is still relatively small. Algeria 13%, Morocco 7.6%, Egypt 6.4%
The difference in tests isn't actually that far off the difference in death rate.
If you compare the number of UK tests with German tests (208k vs 917k or 22.7%) and Germany's death rate to the UK's official death rate (1.8% vs 10.3% or 17.5%), you're actually not that far off from saying Germany has done 5 times the tests and 1/5th the death rate. Of course experts would probably bleed from their eyes looking at this crude logic.
Yes, probably true.
Also, true that 65.61% of the UK's population is under 50 years old (source 2011 census: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_England). It probably has changed by 1 percentage point in either direction since then, so let's use it as a number.
Let's also use as a number to achieve her immunity the mentioned 60%. However, that assumes 60% of the entire population. So, for that to be achieved, then 92.17% of the under 50 population has to be infected. That is (to my best calculator usage skills) 40 million people.
Now, in an ideal scenario, you infect them over a period of time (until vaccine comes). That would be 18 months. So each month, 2.2 million people need to be infected. 5% of them require hospitalization, that means 110k people who require hospitalization. NHS has announced that it will increase the number of ICU beds to 40k (they still do not have near as many). In this scenario, the majority of those 70k who do not have a bed, die. Each month, for 18 months. More than a million deaths, terrible.
Now, to be fair, I kind of cheated. I did not use any variable for the number of asymptomatic people. They exist. There are reports that up to 80% of infected people might be asymptomatic. That lowers the hospitalization, and the fatality rate. In this exercise, that means that the ratio of hospitalization goes to 1% (instead of 5%). There are only 22k people that require hospitalization each month, NHS is perfectly able to cope with them. Some will die, but the death rate is small (let's put it from nowhere at 0.1%). That is only 2.2k people dying each month, only around 30k-35k in total. Tragic, but someone might say acceptable. Soldiers die in war, and this is the war.
Now, in this case, it would be possible to open and deal with this scenario. Unfortunately, I cheated again (the other way around). It is virtually impossible to have a uniform distribution. It will be a Gaussian-like distribution instead. Now, I won't even try to model the mean and the variance of it, too many unknowns. But we know that the pandemics last for around 8 weeks, we also know that the Spanish flu killed most of the people in a single month. So, let's assume that half of those people get infected within a month. That is 20m infected people, 200k of which require hospitalization. 40k get it, the other 160k die (the vast majority of them). The other half get infected before or after peak, so they bring the number of casualties from 30k-35k to 15k or so. In total, the UK loses around 200k people. Quite close to the study which puts it a bit higher at 250k. Still pretty bad, and IMO unacceptable. Even the government went away from it when it was clear that the number of deaths was so much higher than thought.
For comparison, Italy's medical system essentially went to the point of crashing with just a few tens of thousand infections (multiply it with 5 if we assume 4 asymptotic for every symptomatic), so only 200k infections. How is the US gonna cope with 100 more infected people at the same time (even if they are under 50)? Short answer, it won't.
The only way this her immunity nonsense might work if we find out that the number of asymptomatic people is way higher. Like 100 people without symptoms for everyone with symptoms or so. Like if we realize that this is less lethal than the common flu. And I think that pretty much is not the case, it just is not true.
Until then, try to minimize the damage to the economy after the mitigation stage. And well, there is at least one relatively large, relatively democratic, relatively rich and very successful country who is doing so. We do not need to find a blueprint for that stage, we just need to implement South Korea's blueprint in Western countries.
You know that "el mundo" will never be truthful with anything that comes from a socialist government and will say nothing positive even Spain curving the way are surprisingly doing
My gut feeling is that it's going to hit China again. In Korea they are finding that people who have recovered are also getting positive tests after testing negative before.
Of course, the press is very divided, but it is not the first testimony that tells something similar.
https://www.elindependiente.com/pol...or-coronavirus-en-espana-genera-muchas-dudas/
https://www.lavanguardia.com/vida/20200401/48259304067/coronavirus-muertes-ancianos-cataluna.html
https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2020-04-01/espana-minusvalora-muertos-covid_2530032/
and even el país!!
https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-04...ue-la-estadistica-oficial-de-coronavirus.html
Source?
Links to this?
The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said 51 people from Daegu and the surrounding North Gyeongsang Province, the epicenters of the COVID-19 outbreak here, had tested positive for the virus after they were released from quarantine.
Yonhap. Korean official news agency.
Coronavirus: Paris bans daytime outdoor exercise
Sure, miscalculation and how you calculate the deaths is a big problem not only in Spain but in Italy and others that if they don't have the time, resources and others to tests alive people, imagine dead people. But there is a way to inform saying that the deaths probably are more for "this fact, and this other fact, etc.." and another way like el mundo insinuating that Spanish government wants to deliberately "fake" the numbers with the sensationalist picture and playing with the feelings in these moments. Quite nasty from el mundo
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
It's there too, in yesterday's press release. It's worth noting, that they believe it's probably attributed to the capability of the test itself or just reactivation of the cases (not necessarily in the HIV scenario - just the viral count could be low enough to pass the initial tests). Definitely worth closely following though.
Very interesting. Most of the countries in Asia knew this was going to get bad. Now due to their own incompetence they are trying to blame everyone else. Trump was told in January this was going to get very bad yet he did feck all too.
Hopefully that's due to bad testing, be it due to the tests themselves or the lull in symptoms half way through the infection. Nearly all at-risk people won't have the ability to self isolate until a vaccine and the global economy would be super fecked if that's true.
I also wonder if a second bout would have increased or decreased severity of symptoms.
Unless they picked up the potential second strand of the virus which doesn't seem to be mentioned much anymore.