You'd think the number of infected people not yet discovered would far outweigh the number of as yet disclosed dead though.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
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Withnail
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No one's going to do shit to China. They're the ones supplying the PPE and they'll be handing out the loans.Completely different issue.
That was not a global pendemic was it.
Skills
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It just tells you how far they are from adequate testing capacity.So many countries are close to 10% mortality now... Italy well over that, Spain, France, UK, Netherlands, Belgium. I know the true infected number is much higher than reported but so is probably the number of deaths seemingly.
Ludens the Red
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Yeah young people live with the elderly, they do and that’s why I said tough decisions and big calls are gonna have to be made by the powers that be. People are going to have to be rehoused, separated etc.But people live with each other. They have parents, at times in the same home.
Also, people in their fifties who might be considered low-risk category could overwhelm the system on their own, if all of them get the disease. The risk is less for those under 40, but if most/all of the gets sick, it is gonna be bad, a total collapse.
There is no way to both achieve herd immunity and to keep the number of deaths small. No way. Which is why I said that Boris' plan was nuts back then, backed by experts or not. And the plan changed two days later, because you know, it was nuts.
I think we can have both a functional society and economy, and limit the number of deaths. This is not a thought experiment, South Korea has already demonstrated that you can do so, without even having a lockdown, without closing the factories, without even closing restaurants. So yes, I am in favor for a gradual relaxation of constraints when the number of infections get low (hopefully by the end of the month). But relaxing some constraints to have a working economy does not mean going back to before, and having thousands of people in sporting events, or concerts, or having hundreds of people in pubs are steps too far. Do that, and you will be forced to do another lockdown just 2 weeks later.
Correct me if I’m wrong but last I read less than 5% of people under 50 required basic hospitalisation, and id a guess a number of those would have had previous health issues. So I’d be amazed if they alone overwhelmed the system or caused it to collapse if they were allowed back into society, considering that at this point in this hypothetical scenario all the high risk people would remain in lockdown. There’ll obviously have to be more data to analyse and manage risk.
At this point in time the health system hasn’t been overwhelmed and that’s despite the fact this virus was open season for everyone up until a few weeks ago. That offers hope.
And yeah a gradual relaxation is what is best for the next few months but I dont think doing it over 18 months is realistic or until a vaccine. It would hinder far too many people.
We're on the same page, but for one caveat - which is that those who are safe/not at risk will need to get infected over 18 months. We still can't afford to have that many people infected over 18 months, even if they are somehow all from the lowest risk group. There are still a significant number of young people/people without comorbidities who need medical intervention because of this - and though they're at a lower risk of dying once they get medical intervention, if the health care system is overloaded they will also be dying because they won't get a ventilator/oxygen/hospital bed.
JMack1234
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We're not going to be in lockdown until there is a vaccine.
So, the government need to be frank with the public about what our exit plan is and roughly what the timetable will be. So the public and business can get ready.
So, the government need to be frank with the public about what our exit plan is and roughly what the timetable will be. So the public and business can get ready.
Withnail
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Cabin fever well and truly setting in mateThis thread used to be informative. Precisely when did it become so damn tedious?
Masks, war on China or the death of freedom?
Hansa
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Keep an eye on some countries in northern Africa as well, although the sample size is still relatively small. Algeria 13%, Morocco 7.6%, Egypt 6.4%So many countries are close to 10% mortality now... Italy well over that, Spain, France, UK, Netherlands, Belgium. I know the true infected number is much higher than reported but so is probably the number of deaths seemingly.
The difference in tests isn't actually that far off the difference in death rate.It just tells you how far they are from adequate testing capacity.
If you compare the number of UK tests with German tests (208k vs 917k or 22.7%) and Germany's death rate to the UK's official death rate (1.8% vs 10.3% or 17.5%), you're actually not that far off from saying Germany has done 5 times the tests and 1/5th the death rate. Of course experts would probably bleed from their eyes looking at this crude logic.
Yes, probably true.Yeah young people live with the elderly, they do and that’s why I said tough decisions and big calls are gonna have to be made by the powers that be. People are going to have to be rehoused, separated etc.
Correct me if I’m wrong but last I read less than 5% of people under 50 required basic hospitalisation, and id a guess a number of those would have had previous health issues. So I’d be amazed if they alone overwhelmed the system or caused it to collapse if they were allowed back into society, considering that at this point in this hypothetical scenario all the high risk people would remain in lockdown. There’ll obviously have to be more data to analyse and manage risk.
At this point in time the health system hasn’t been overwhelmed and that’s despite the fact this virus was open season for everyone up until a few weeks ago. That offers hope.
And yeah a gradual relaxation is what is best for the next few months but I dont think doing it over 18 months is realistic or until a vaccine. It would hinder far too many people.
Also, true that 65.61% of the UK's population is under 50 years old (source 2011 census: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_England). It probably has changed by 1 percentage point in either direction since then, so let's use it as a number.
Let's also use as a number to achieve her immunity the mentioned 60%. However, that assumes 60% of the entire population. So, for that to be achieved, then 92.17% of the under 50 population has to be infected. That is (to my best calculator usage skills) 40 million people.
Now, in an ideal scenario, you infect them over a period of time (until vaccine comes). That would be 18 months. So each month, 2.2 million people need to be infected. 5% of them require hospitalization, that means 110k people who require hospitalization. NHS has announced that it will increase the number of ICU beds to 40k (they still do not have near as many). In this scenario, the majority of those 70k who do not have a bed, die. Each month, for 18 months. More than a million deaths, terrible.
Now, to be fair, I kind of cheated. I did not use any variable for the number of asymptomatic people. They exist. There are reports that up to 80% of infected people might be asymptomatic. That lowers the hospitalization, and the fatality rate. In this exercise, that means that the ratio of hospitalization goes to 1% (instead of 5%). There are only 22k people that require hospitalization each month, NHS is perfectly able to cope with them. Some will die, but the death rate is small (let's put it from nowhere at 0.1%). That is only 2.2k people dying each month, only around 30k-35k in total. Tragic, but someone might say acceptable. Soldiers die in war, and this is the war.
Now, in this case, it would be possible to open and deal with this scenario. Unfortunately, I cheated again (the other way around). It is virtually impossible to have a uniform distribution. It will be a Gaussian-like distribution instead. Now, I won't even try to model the mean and the variance of it, too many unknowns. But we know that the pandemics last for around 8 weeks, we also know that the Spanish flu killed most of the people in a single month. So, let's assume that half of those people get infected within a month. That is 20m infected people, 200k of which require hospitalization. 40k get it, the other 160k die (the vast majority of them). The other half get infected before or after peak, so they bring the number of casualties from 30k-35k to 15k or so. In total, the UK loses around 200k people. Quite close to the study which puts it a bit higher at 250k. Still pretty bad, and IMO unacceptable. Even the government went away from it when it was clear that the number of deaths was so much higher than thought.
For comparison, Italy's medical system essentially went to the point of crashing with just a few tens of thousand infections (multiply it with 5 if we assume 4 asymptotic for every symptomatic), so only 200k infections. How is the US gonna cope with 100 more infected people at the same time (even if they are under 50)? Short answer, it won't.
The only way this her immunity nonsense might work if we find out that the number of asymptomatic people is way higher. Like 100 people without symptoms for everyone with symptoms or so. Like if we realize that this is less lethal than the common flu. And I think that pretty much is not the case, it just is not true.
Until then, try to minimize the damage to the economy after the mitigation stage. And well, there is at least one relatively large, relatively democratic, relatively rich and very successful country who is doing so. We do not need to find a blueprint for that stage, we just need to implement South Korea's blueprint in Western countries.
4bars
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You know that "el mundo" will never be truthful with anything that comes from a socialist government and will say nothing positive even Spain curving the way are surprisingly doingA photo of the "ice palace". An ice rink in Madrid enabled days ago as a morgue.
It´s being said that the death toll could be close to 30,000, about double. There are many virus-related death licenses, but not all of them are counted.
"If a person dies without having undergone the test, in the death part, the last one is considered correct, that is to say, multiple organ failure, respiratory stress, or ,
severe respiratory insufficiency must be included as the immediate cause."
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Foxbatt
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My gut feeling is that it's going to hit China again. In Korea they are finding that people who have recovered are also getting positive tests after testing negative before.
Of course, the press is very divided, but it is not the first testimony that tells something similar.You know that "el mundo" will never be truthful with anything that comes from a socialist government and will say nothing positive even Spain curving the way are surprisingly doing
https://www.elindependiente.com/pol...or-coronavirus-en-espana-genera-muchas-dudas/
https://www.lavanguardia.com/vida/20200401/48259304067/coronavirus-muertes-ancianos-cataluna.html
https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2020-04-01/espana-minusvalora-muertos-covid_2530032/
and even el país!!
https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-04...ue-la-estadistica-oficial-de-coronavirus.html
Skills
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Source?My gut feeling is that it's going to hit China again. In Korea they are finding that people who have recovered are also getting positive tests after testing negative before.
Zlatan 7
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Links to this?My gut feeling is that it's going to hit China again. In Korea they are finding that people who have recovered are also getting positive tests after testing negative before.
Foxbatt
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The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said 51 people from Daegu and the surrounding North Gyeongsang Province, the epicenters of the COVID-19 outbreak here, had tested positive for the virus after they were released from quarantine.Source?
Yonhap. Korean official news agency.
4bars
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Sure, miscalculation and how you calculate the deaths is a big problem not only in Spain but in Italy and others that if they don't have the time, resources and others to tests alive people, imagine dead people. But there is a way to inform saying that the deaths probably are more for "this fact, and this other fact, etc.." and another way like el mundo insinuating that Spanish government wants to deliberately "fake" the numbers with the sensationalist picture and playing with the feelings in these moments. Quite nasty from el mundoOf course, the press is very divided, but it is not the first testimony that tells something similar.
https://www.elindependiente.com/pol...or-coronavirus-en-espana-genera-muchas-dudas/
https://www.lavanguardia.com/vida/20200401/48259304067/coronavirus-muertes-ancianos-cataluna.html
https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2020-04-01/espana-minusvalora-muertos-covid_2530032/
and even el país!!
https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-04...ue-la-estadistica-oficial-de-coronavirus.html
Skills
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https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said 51 people from Daegu and the surrounding North Gyeongsang Province, the epicenters of the COVID-19 outbreak here, had tested positive for the virus after they were released from quarantine.
Yonhap. Korean official news agency.
It's there too, in yesterday's press release. It's worth noting, that they believe it's probably attributed to the capability of the test itself or just reactivation of the cases (not necessarily in the HIV scenario - just the viral count could be low enough to pass the initial tests). Definitely worth closely following though.
Foxbatt
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Very interesting. Most of the countries in Asia knew this was going to get bad. Now due to their own incompetence they are trying to blame everyone else. Trump was told in January this was going to get very bad yet he did feck all too.
nme_pro
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Hopefully that's due to bad testing, be it due to the tests themselves or the lull in symptoms half way through the infection. Nearly all at-risk people won't have the ability to self isolate until a vaccine and the global economy would be super fecked if that's true.My gut feeling is that it's going to hit China again. In Korea they are finding that people who have recovered are also getting positive tests after testing negative before.
I also wonder if a second bout would have increased or decreased severity of symptoms.
Unless they picked up the potential second strand of the virus which doesn't seem to be mentioned much anymore.
Foxbatt
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Thank you. But they are monitoring this whole thing again. Personally I think China opened Wuhan up too soon. Unless, unless they have found a cure. May not be a vaccine but a cure. Surely they can't afford to have it the second time again?https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
It's there too, in yesterday's press release. It's worth noting, that they believe it's probably attributed to the capability of the test itself or just reactivation of the cases (not necessarily in the HIV scenario - just the viral count could be low enough to pass the initial tests). Definitely worth closely following though.
I think that dengue fever is the only disease I've heard that is more harmful the second time. I would be absolutely terrified (and surprised) if we don't get any immunity (whatsoever) from the first infection. It likely won't be lifetime (most are not, and none of the coronaviruses that cause common cold give lifetime immunity) but no immunity at all would be very surprising. In that case, I don't know how a vaccine would even work.Hopefully that's due to bad testing, be it due to the tests themselves or the lull in symptoms half way through the infection. Nearly all at-risk people won't have the ability to self isolate until a vaccine and the global economy would be super fecked if that's true.
I also wonder if a second bout would have increased or decreased severity of symptoms.
Unless they picked up the potential second strand of the virus which doesn't seem to be mentioned much anymore.
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Skills
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Correct me if i'm wrong, but that's only the case if you get one of the other strains of it? Dengue fever is a real evolutionary motherfecker though, and we'd have to have a few generations of bad luck packed into 2020 for this to mutate into something nasty like that.I think that dengue fever is the only (known) disease that is more harmful the second time. I would be absolutely terrified (and surprised) if we don't get any immunity (whatsoever) from the first infection. It likely won't be lifetime (most are not, and none of the coronaviruses that cause common cold give lifetime immunity) but no immunity at all would be very surprising. In that case, I don't know how a vaccine would even work.
nme_pro
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Terrifying indeed! My solace through this was the belief that it's one and done for lower risk people for a year or so, protect those that need protecting and then there's a vaccine before the next go round. That lends itself to the recovered helping, volunteering and donating plasma etc.I think that dengue fever is the only (known) disease that is more harmful the second time. I would be absolutely terrified (and surprised) if we don't get any immunity (whatsoever) from the first infection. It likely won't be lifetime (most are not, and none of the coronaviruses that cause common cold give lifetime immunity) but no immunity at all would be very surprising. In that case, I don't know how a vaccine would even work.
Good to know that it's highly irregular for a potential second infection to have more severe symptoms, in any case.
I think so, but I don't remember exactly. I think I had read something that when the number of antibodies reduces past some threshold, then getting reinfected is more dangerous than being infected in the first place. So on some level, getting infected gives you some immunity for the time being, but later it can be even more dangerous.Correct me if i'm wrong, but that's only the case if you get one of the other strains of it? Dengue fever is a real evolutionary motherfecker though, and we'd have to have a few generations of bad luck packed into 2020 for this to mutate into something nasty like that.
I also think that if you get infected with 2 different versions of malaria in succession, it is more dangerous. But yes, in any case we are talking for different strains. And those diseases are very dissimilar to this. A better comparison is the common cold which gives some immunity (and I believe for short term close to total immunity).
Parasites like malaria built immune tolerance rather than immunity over long exposure periods don't they?
It sounds awfully convenient that apparently mostly some unnamed scientists are to blame, instead of the politicians whose faces are all known. But then Reuters aren't known for political propaganda, are they?
Having read an article about testing in Germany previously some parts sounded unbelievable, like:
"According to emails and more than a dozen scientists interviewed by Reuters, the government issued no requests to labs for assistance with staff or testing equipment until the middle of March"
compared to "Since February, between 200 and 300 German laboratories have become involved in the rapid testing scheme."
https://spectator.us/germany-managed-perform-covid-19-tests/
It does not seem to me so sensationalist. The photo of vox in Gran vía with corpses, yes it is, but not this.Sure, miscalculation and how you calculate the deaths is a big problem not only in Spain but in Italy and others that if they don't have the time, resources and others to tests alive people, imagine dead people. But there is a way to inform saying that the deaths probably are more for "this fact, and this other fact, etc.." and another way like el mundo insinuating that Spanish government wants to deliberately "fake" the numbers with the sensationalist picture and playing with the feelings in these moments. Quite nasty from el mundo
If my grandfather dies suddenly and they tell me it is respiratory failure, I would like to know what caused it and what is going on , instead the censored press conferences, as until two days ago, to give an example.
They have turned the call for unity into a censure of any criticism of the government, when they did exactly the same with Ebola. Even manifestations by the dog they sacrificed.
Dengue is an odd one
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/12/111221151713.htmIt was already known that upon a person's first infection with dengue virus, the immune system reacts normally by creating antibodies to fight the viral invaders. The problem is that those antibodies can then be confused if confronted later with one of the other three types of dengue virus, and as this new study revealed, even different subtypes within the same serotype.
"With the second infection, the antibodies sort of recognize the new type of viruses, but not well enough to clear them from the system," said study lead author Molly OhAinle, post-doctoral fellow in infectious diseases at UC Berkeley's School of Public Health. "Instead of neutralizing the viruses, the antibodies bind to them in a way that actually helps them invade the immune system's other cells and spread."
Redplane
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Kinda looks like the trendline for medals in the Summer Olympics and we re winning again. Yay!....Those charts look good, yeah? Lines are levelling or going down. Worst parts over for a lot of countries, yes or no?
4bars
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Well, will disagree on our opinions thenIt does not seem to me so sensationalist. The photo of vox in Gran vía with corpses, yes it is, but not this.
If my grandfather dies suddenly and they tell me it is respiratory failure, I would like to know what caused it and what is going on , instead the censored press conferences, as until two days ago, to give an example.
They have turned the call for unity into a censure of any criticism of the government, when they did exactly the same with Ebola. Even manifestations by the dog they sacrificed.
4bars
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The graphic has a catch as it is logarithmic on the Y axis but yes, looks like Spain and Italy past the peak and UK is slowing down. But is too soon. France changed their counting criteria so is difficult to say. US still climbing probably far from the peak yetThose charts look good, yeah? Lines are levelling or going down. Worst parts over for a lot of countries, yes or no?
Hansa
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I must say, I'm pinning my hope on a high-tech state like Germany to be the driving force in combating this virus. I might be misguided in this, but I reckon that as long as the hospitals are not overwhelmed, they can probably do a lot of clinical trials, perhaps be among the first to suggest a way out of this mess through medicines or even a vaccine, and having a head of state with a history of cooperation and solidarity doesn't hurt either."Since February, between 200 and 300 German laboratories have become involved in the rapid testing scheme."
https://spectator.us/germany-managed-perform-covid-19-tests/
Hellboy
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Thoughts ?