Hello, good to meet you. I agree with you.Very well said. I dont care in the short term about privacy if it means we can track/trace and limit the spread of this virus.
First post in nearly 10 years
Hello, good to meet you. I agree with you.Very well said. I dont care in the short term about privacy if it means we can track/trace and limit the spread of this virus.
First post in nearly 10 years
And as I said, those jobs can be done with some relaxation of constraints. Restaurants can open, as can bars. Pubs, probably will have to suffer.The problem here is you’re too fixated on the actual sport and events, you’re not seeing the bigger picture. It’s not purely about that, it’s about everything that comes with it, especially jobs etc.
All the ones I just listed in my previous post, that working class people do on a daily basis to get through life, a lot on zero hour contracts, a lot of young people, a lot of migrants.
Not sure how those effected can just “learn to deal with life”. How on earth are they supposed to just ‘learn to deal with it’ for 18 months.
Maybe you just don’t get it because you’ve not been in that position?
That's what people said during the economical crisis after world war one in Austria. The Austrian cancellor of the time was given the right to rule via regulations. People thought it would only be temporarily. It was the start of the Austrian fascism under Dollfuß.Very well said. I dont care in the short term about privacy if it means we can track/trace and limit the spread of this virus.
First post in nearly 10 years
No they don't. The vast majority of people, do not need to get infected. You can manage the spread within the community by effectively testing, tracing & isolating.Ultimately the healthy majority in this country are going to have to go back out there and get infected. And that will have to happen within the next eighteen months, probably a lot sooner. It’s just all very complicated and there is no quick, easy fix with a fairytale ending.
France now report deaths outside hospitals since April 2nd. Some are backdated but wasn't expecting to see more huge numbers continue like today. Worldmeters just adds them all up but note other countries haven't released them yet.What’s happening in France? Worldometers reporting 11,000 new and 1400 deaths. That can’t be right....
It’s a huge challenge and honestly I don’t see how we get out of this. We will, I’m sure, but I just cannot fathom how and when. Western Europe have resources to deal with this through tracing, distancing, improving healthcare and try to soften economic blow through supporting people and businesses. I don’t have nearly as much hope for my country as our government will be focused on keeping their offices and buying votes for elections, they won’t support businesses as that will go against their agenda and we don’t really have resources to deal with the whole situation because they’ve given it all away six months ago when they were buying votes for parliament elections.I think there is going to have to be a choice made. Awaiting a vaccine isn’t realistic. Difficult decisions are going to have to be made and I would not want to be the one to make them. But it’s clear that things are going to have to be put in place where those most susceptible to the virus are kept away from the core of society for a long time (until vaccine) like really, really strict measures. People will have to be held accountable for breaking such measures too.
I didn’t even mention schools and universities earlier, but these are places where people will gather in excess of the 100’s, whether that be in a canteen, playtime, playgrounds, assembly.
Offering money to all of these people for 18 months is also not realistic long term financially.
Ultimately the healthy majority in this country are going to have to go back out there and get infected. And that will have to happen within the next eighteen months, probably a lot sooner. It’s just all very complicated and there is no quick, easy fix with a fairytale ending.
Your point is about Government incompetence, is it? Thank goodness for wise and prudent administration?With big Donald leading from the front.
Why.
Do you believe that we should all just take it on the chin.
Especially the families and loved ones of the many ten's of thousands of those who have had their lives cut short by the virus.
Not to mention the massive economic damage to hundreds of countries and their citizens.
We should be using this time to talk about how awful Dominic Raab is in case he gets sick and we're no longer allowed to.
Not convinced screening would have even been that effective, Milan Malpensa did screenings from early February and it turned out to be about as much use as a chocolate fireguard.We let the virus into our countries.
We allowed our people to travel for their spring/March breaks.
We didn't screen them when they came home.
Now look at us.
Even that assumes that UK will be able to handle 2 million infected people at the same time. They can't.No they don't. The vast majority of people, do not need to get infected. You can manage the spread within the community by effectively testing, tracing & isolating.
Schools, universities & other places can also manage by systematically testing and identifying outbreaks in places like those. You can reduce their likelihood by changing timetables, shift patterns & still keep society functioning. Even pubs etc can open as long as you limit the crowds inside of them.
This whole thing about having 36m people infected over 18 months (i.e. 60%) relies on a dreadful assumption that you will manage to split it evenly over 18 months. That's the only way we can manage the load on the healthcare system & that doesn't work.
Thank you. I've been on this forum the whole time since I quit posting since then. I must say u guys are awesome I dont go anywhere else for facts as it's all posted here and fact checked, by doctors and various experts and crazy guys who are so committed. My gf reads just Facebook.Hello, good to meet you. I agree with you.
I didn’t expect France would have such high numbers when was I think the first nation to close schools and other places....maybe I’m wrongFrance now report deaths outside hospitals since April 2nd. Some are backdated but wasn't expecting to see more huge numbers continue like today. Worldmeters just adds them all up but note other countries haven't released them yet.
Hospital
78167 cases +3777
30027 hospitalized +305
7131 intensive care +59
7091 dead +607
Care homes
30902 cases +7282
3237 dead +820
Perhaps other countries will be similar but a UK report suggests maybe care home deaths are 7% of the hospital total as most are said to arrive in hospital anyway but France's care homes deaths are about 45% of the hospital deaths.
Italy is thought to be quite high outside hospitals but there's a huge backlog, they're not withholding or under reporting.
Nice to hear from you.Very well said. I dont care in the short term about privacy if it means we can track/trace and limit the spread of this virus.
First post in nearly 10 years
Fair point. We could have forced them to self-isolate, though.Not convinced screening would have even been that effective, Milan Malpensa did screenings from early February and it turned out to be about as much use as a chocolate fireguard.
Taken what I said out of context. Which can happen if you only quote part of a post.No they don't. The vast majority of people, do not need to get infected. You can manage the spread within the community by effectively testing, tracing & isolating.
Schools, universities & other places can also manage by systematically testing and identifying outbreaks in places like those. You can reduce their likelihood by changing timetables, shift patterns & still keep society functioning. Even pubs etc can open as long as you limit the crowds inside of them.
This whole thing about having 36m people infected over 18 months (i.e. 60%) relies on a dreadful assumption that you will manage to split it evenly over 18 months. That's the only way we can manage the load on the healthcare system & that doesn't work.
Yes exactly. The lockdown gives us a chance to go back to square 1 and any competent govt now will be working on increasing their testing capacity & planning for life after lock down. Life isn't going back to normal anytime soon, but its obvious having people locked in for months on end will cause society to collapse anyway. So we need a compromise & the SK model is the best one on the table.Even that assumes that UK will be able to handle 2 million infected people at the same time. They can't.
We saw Italy's system collapsing with less than 100k infected people. We are seeing what is happening in New York with less than 100k infected people. It is hard to see a country the size of UK being able to deal with 2m infected people at all time, for 18 months. Heck, doctors and nurses will be already dead if they will have to work in a very infected environment, in double shifts for 18 months. It was always, a totally nonsense plan that had no basis in reality.
And as you said, fof that to happen, you need a uniform distribution. Which would be pretty much impossible to achieve. What is going to be instead is something that looks like a Gaussian, when 10m+ people will get infected in the same time, and hundreds of thousands if not more are gonna die within a few weeks.
Which begs the question, if countries have to do that after the lockdown, why bother with a lockdown in the first place? We actually saw University College's study that showed that a lockdown followed by going back to life as normal has the same number of infections and fatalities as no lockdown at all. Which is why the removal of constraints is going to be gradual, and life as usual will continue only in 2022 if we are lucky to have a highly effective vaccine. Until then, hopefully a South Korea scenario, which while is not ideal, it is pretty acceptable.
Thank youJust block them. There are too many ignorant, uneducated and lazy people in this thread. The mods have fixed a lot but some are still being given airtime. They're just not worth it.
I laughed at that one. U could be right I keep reading, say a random thread and think one opinion and its not long till someone says the same thing so i dont bother. This thread though is a bit more important to me than say if I think ole is good enough or whatever.Nice to hear from you.
See you again in 2030?
If the government articulated a non-authoritarian approach and spoke candidly about death rates under various social responses, along with a pleading for extreme social distancing, hugely reduced social gatherings etc and the amount of peoples lives that this approach would save... I don't agree that people would merely carry on regardless. The "bad flu" rhetoric was back when Boris was also shaking hands with everyone he met, several days before the lockdown this nonsense was already purged from all but the most idiotic of minds. Obviously a small minority would, but these are the same minorities that will be flouting the current rules just in a more surreptitious manner. At least if they're out in the open we can model on the reality than x% won't follow the guidelines (whether enforced or strongly requested).So a majority of pubs, clubs, restaurants, cinemas, malls, theatres etc etc would close, with the hordes of people who would naturally assume this soft touch approach by the government implies the virus really is “just a bad flu” (remember that bullshit?) all crammed into the minority that remain open. What could possibly go wrong? “Identical outcomes” my hole.
Your hypothetical scenario is pointless. We’re discussing a real scenario. With a real virus. No need for any straw men. For what it’s worth, I imagine what we’re seeing in parts of France or Spain right now is about as bad as it will get.
What proportion of businesses did voluntarily close after a decent compensatory scheme was introduced?I don't think they would all have stayed open. In fact I think the vast majority would have closed. Almost all of them if a decent compensatory scheme were introduced.
The common sense of the populace would have lead to huge reductions in their businesses and policies such as the 80% furlough payments would have lead to them temporarily shutting down of their own volition.
I suspect the small minority that stayed open would have implemented measures that would hugely stem infection rates (e.g. taking temperatures on arrival, ensuring no-one showing symptoms was permitted, ensuring tables were a few metres apart and that the people diving were part of the same family, increasing cleanliness, enforcing use of hand sanitizer, requesting that no-one 70+ or with underlying conditions entered).
I believe wholeheartedly that we could have achieved almost identical outcomes with zero use of force.
Again I'd be interested to know what level of mortality would cause you to be comfortable with the aforementioned couple of limitations to civil liberties?
Don’t believe what comes from China, independent news reported the arrival of 5000 urns just for one funeral home -they have 8 on that city, the numbers of infected and dead people must be huge. They lied to the world, they didn’t stop the spreading of the virus to other countries and WHO leaders must get a supplement check from china, the same ones who said US banning planes coming from China was wrong.Thank you. I've been on this forum the whole time since I quit posting since then. I must say u guys are awesome I dont go anywhere else for facts as it's all posted here and fact checked, by doctors and various experts and crazy guys who are so committed. My gf reads just Facebook.
I look at China etc and am jealous of their handling as a super power, they test, trace and send u a message on an app. I think we should be doing similar to that, some things are more important than a bit of temporary civil privacy.
But people live with each other. They have parents, at times in the same home.Taken what I said out of context. Which can happen if you only quote part of a post.
Earlier in that post I made it clear strict measures will need to be put and kept in place for those at higher risk to this. But there is clearly (people on here for some reason seem to not want to acknowledge this) a large portion of society that this will not effect or effect very little. These are the people I’m saying will need to get out there. And they’re going to have to stay away from the risk groups at all costs.
It’d be a difficult process to implement but I don’t see an alternative and it’s being done now anyway.
The data is there, the information is there and it would be weird and feel slightly big brotherish but I don’t see an alternative. Well I do but they’re not realistic nor sustainable.
@Revan
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The moment I heard that China decided to shut movie theaters again just a few days after they declared the victory and claiming that all new infections are imports, it removed any doubt I had that China was lying all alone. Sure, they had a good action against the virus since January, but they also minimised the numbers in order to show the superiority of their system (especially with big Western countries except Germany failing to do anything right).Don’t believe what comes from China, independent news reported the arrival of 5000 urns just for one funeral home -they have 8 on that city, the numbers of infected and dead people must be huge. They lied to the world, they didn’t stop the spreading of the virus to other countries and WHO leaders must get a supplement check from china, the same ones who said US banning planes coming from China was wrong.
yes im bored to death and my wife gave me a list of things to do around the house I kept postponing for years ...damn I really hate the chinese government and WHO
We're on the same page, but for one caveat - which is that those who are safe/not at risk will need to get infected over 18 months. We still can't afford to have that many people infected over 18 months, even if they are somehow all from the lowest risk group. There are still a significant number of young people/people without comorbidities who need medical intervention because of this - and though they're at a lower risk of dying once they get medical intervention, if the health care system is overloaded they will also be dying because they won't get a ventilator/oxygen/hospital bed.Taken what I said out of context. Which can happen if you only quote part of a post.
Earlier in that post I made it clear strict measures will need to be put and kept in place for those at higher risk to this. But there is clearly (people on here for some reason seem to not want to acknowledge this) a large portion of society that this will not effect or effect very little. These are the people I’m saying will need to get out there. And they’re going to have to stay away from the risk groups at all costs.
It’d be a difficult process to implement but I don’t see an alternative and it’s being done now anyway.
The data is there, the information is there and it would be weird and feel slightly big brotherish but I don’t see an alternative. Well I do but they’re not realistic nor sustainable.
@Revan
Sounds plausible. Norwegian media is reporting the location of every single death, and so far the care homes have slightly higher numbers than hospital deaths. It just goes to show that while we all focused on hospital capacity, very few countries were able to solve the problem of keeping the virus out of care homes.Perhaps other countries will be similar but a UK report suggests maybe care home deaths are 7% of the hospital total as most are said to arrive in hospital anyway but France's care homes deaths are about 45% of the hospital deaths.
One of the alleged origin of the outbreak happened around two weeks before the lockdown in Mulhouse, an evangelist event, so it was kind of too late for the north east part of the country. At the opposite corner we are kind of fine and fortunate, without the lockdown we would probably be in the same situation.I didn’t expect France would have such high numbers when was I think the first nation to close schools and other places....maybe I’m wrong
We should be using this time to talk about how awful Dominic Raab is in case he gets sick and we're no longer allowed to.
Glad it's brought you back. To be honest, a once a decade sensible comment average is better than most people's (especially mine).I laughed at that one. U could be right I keep reading, say a random thread and think one opinion and its not long till someone says the same thing so i dont bother. This thread though is a bit more important to me than say if I think ole is good enough or whatever.
I think this forum has never been so valuable as it is right now.
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We should be using this time to talk about how awful Dominic Raab is in case he gets sick and we're no longer allowed to.
Don’t believe what comes from China, independent news reported the arrival of 5000 urns just for one funeral home -they have 8 on that city, the numbers of infected and dead people must be huge. They lied to the world, they didn’t stop the spreading of the virus to other countries and WHO leaders must get a supplement check from china, the same ones who said US banning planes coming from China was wrong.
yes im bored to death and my wife gave me a list of things to do around the house I kept postponing for years ...damn I really hate the chinese government and WHO
I just watch these videos of how these far east countries seem to so much more organized, with mass testing and tracing and think obviously nievley that we shouldnt be so crap, but here we are. And if it meant a bit of privacy lost would help than I'd be fine with that they can track what I do and look at what I Google.Don’t believe what comes from China, independent news reported the arrival of 5000 urns just for one funeral home -they have 8 on that city, the numbers of infected and dead people must be huge. They lied to the world, they didn’t stop the spreading of the virus to other countries and WHO leaders must get a supplement check from china, the same ones who said US banning planes coming from China was wrong.
yes im bored to death and my wife gave me a list of things to do around the house I kept postponing for years ...damn I really hate the chinese government and WHO
We should be using this time to talk about how awful Dominic Raab is in case he gets sick and we're no longer allowed to.
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Its definitely a social link and very helpful I dont read the papers out of principle. I'm a plumber and the phone isnt ringing so am at home with the family. I'm drinking every night got my gym stuff at home and its hard but I'd go mad without this outward connection.Glad it's brought you back. To be honest, a once a decade sensible comment average is better than most people's (especially mine).
This has been one of the threads that has been of real value over recent weeks... learned a lot about how spread, face masks, causes, options, discovered the Worldometers website. Sounds twee but Caf has also helped me feel some sort of social link (I'm in week.4 of working from home and it sucks).
Stay safe and remember ...... #Olein
It is around Strasbourg, right? Our branch in France is located in Strasbourg and my colleague from over there was saying the other day that most people she knows have either been infected or had someone from their close relatives infected. She was infected herself but fortunately it wasn’t that bad, her husband was in a pretty dire state for a while but he pulled through this.One of the alleged origin of the outbreak happened around two weeks before the lockdown in Mulhouse, an evangelist event, so it was kind of too late for the north east part of the country. At the opposite corner we are kind of fine and fortunate, without the lockdown we would probably be in the same situation.
Have you ever been to China or any authoritarian country? By the way the USA and other major countries have offices in China.The moment I heard that China decided to shut movie theaters again just a few days after they declared the victory and claiming that all new infections are imports, it removed any doubt I had that China was lying all alone. Sure, they had a good action against the virus since January, but they also minimised the numbers in order to show the superiority of their system (especially with big Western countries except Germany failing to do anything right).
WHO should either be disbanded or totally changed. If I was in charge of the US, I wouldn't give them a single penny before their general director gets fired (not even allowed to quit on his own term), there is an investigation of the feckup they did, and deep reforms are done. With the US controlling the purse strings, this should be easy to achieve. Of course, that doesn't give amnesty to anemic action Trump's administration took to prevent or mitigate the disease until mid-March.