They are shit stirrers of the highest order.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Really good point. On the other side, the average age population of the humans in the world is 29.6 years, much lower than that of Iceland. Which might push the CFR even lower, and might be the salvation for countries with poor medical systems but very young population.
Brazil keeps climbing up. Seconf they with +3000 and +200 deaths and no lockdown measures.
Arlene Foster has said the lockdown will last for another 3 weeks to May 9th in N.Ireland... at least
I'm guessing the UK Government will probably announce the same tomorrow
I'm guessing the UK Government will probably announce the same tomorrow
I hate these type of messages. Vague information, no link, a casual reference to an authoritative institution and the wrong conclusion.
Fact of the matter is that we can say with more certainty that we have durable immunity at least for the short term. There was a study completed and published last month with macaque monkeys, they infected a group of them with the virus, they all came down with the classic coronavirus like illness, and then researchers waited until they fully recovered and they re-challanged them a month later and none of them got infected again. PCR negative, IGG positive.
Surely that's the same for every country?
A three week extension is a formality for the UK.
However if the death rate continues to fall and the rest of Europe is releasing their citizens. Then, I can't see the UK government extending the lockdown for much longer than three weeks before they'll have to start expanding the list of key workers and giving the economy some much needed oxygen.
However if the death rate continues to fall and the rest of Europe is releasing their citizens. Then, I can't see the UK government extending the lockdown for much longer than three weeks before they'll have to start expanding the list of key workers and giving the economy some much needed oxygen.
Business Insider has the same credibility on news as Tancredo Palmieri on transfers...
The UK hasn't had anything like the same type of restrictions as the hardest-hit European countries, and we've had no release in Italy apart from a few niche shops being able to open. I don't expect to be able to drive out of the village until the end of May at least.
The restrictions on people's movements in the UK has been light-touch. That's the last thing that needs to be lifted, after people are allowed to get back to work.
Another thing that plays in Iceland's favour is that it's a smallish and isolated country.
Of all the "predictions" I made, I think the one in which I'll more dramatically miss the target, was when I thought the situation in Azores would become catastrophic (poverty, illiteracy, 6 out of 9 islands without hospital). When I saw the first cases were being diagnosed in a few of the smaller islands, I became terrified.
However, it's been almost two weeks in which new cases were only diagnosed in São Miguel, the biggest island (population 140k). Even our second biggest island (55k) is stable at 7 diagnosed cases for more than two weeks. Poor testing policies could explain an underestimation of cases, but they couldn't hide the occasional appearance of a seriously ill patient. I'm confident containment policies are being extremely effective, not because our Health Authority is being particularly clever (right decisions, but late in my opinion), but because geography and demographics is on their side. Three of our nine islands never had any case, five had no new cases in the past two weeks, and only in São Miguel things seem a bit complicated at the moment, but much less than I expected by now. Our island has been cut into 6 areas, which despite not being completely isolated (working people can still travel), might turn out to be a great policy. Same thing was suggested for the worst areas in Continental Portugal (local "sanitary barriers") but it has not been implemented.
Out of curiosity I went to see how other similar regions could compare. Faroe Islands are doing wonderfully, and in the two smallest of Canary Islands (La Gomera and El Hierro) things seem completely controlled as well. On the other hand, in Mallorca, an island with 800k population and an airport that moves as many passengers as Lisbon's airport, things look a lot worse.
Like mentioned before, Germany seems to be doing rather well for such a large country, and the argument that it may be due to the autonomy of local governments, which makes it look more like a series of small rich countries with well suited policies. I think it's somewhat analogous to this "archipelago idea".
My fear of poor islands with 5k people becoming local tragedies seems unfounded. In hindsight, it seem to make sense that they don't. Containment is a lot easier when everyone knows almost everyone and people put pressure upon each other to follow the rules.
Christ she’s a weapon
It’s actually kind of fascinating.
It’s incredible how rarely we have supply shortages of important supplies, when we’re on a constant knife-edge in terms of getting the stuff we need, in the right quantities, to the place where it’s needed most, in time to meet demand.
Global crises like this really highlight what an incredible job mankind is doing keeping everything ticking over when life is “normal”.
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So we know that monkeys are immune after being infected. For one month. Which tells us feck all about whether or not humans have long term immunity. Which would need to last at least 12 months if we’re going to avoid this virus repeatedly hitting us, year after year, until we get a vacccine.
Not to mention that even if we get permanent immunity after being infected (which would be an incredibly lucky break) we’re still in for multiple waves of infections between now and the point at which 2/3 of the world have been infected (or vaccinated, whichever comes first)
So basically, it would take a bit of a miracle for us not to need to be doing at least some form of social distancing in 2021. With a good chance of multiple lockdowns between now and the end of next year. My money would be on that scenario going on for a good bit longer, as it happens.
I think there is durable immunity at least in the short term - and often times short term immunity often times that bodes well for a long term immunity picture. People who have been infected will act as human immunological rods in the virus reaction, they will slow it down. They can be out in the world not worrying about getting infected and not infect others.
We do have distancing in the major metro areas. I'm just not 100% sure what the legal status is, because the governors started it and then the president pushed back. But in Rio and São Paulo at least the streets are seeing a fraction of foot traffic that they usually would.
In order for this virus to entirely wipe out human civilization you need:
1) There is no long-term immunity
2) Each successive infection is worse than the previous one
3) No effective treatments will be developed
If ALL those three things are true, this will be the virus that eradicates our species. Fortunately I don't believe any of those are true. There's compelling evidence that 1 is not true. There's no evidence on 2. And there's hope that we will come up with effective treatments at some point.
Absolutely. All of those do need to be true for the worst case scenario.
I would disagree that we’ve any evidence that 1 is untrue. Jury’s still out on that one.
I agree that 2 is extremely unlikely. In fact, that’s the least likely of the three of them.
If by “treatments” you’re also including vaccines then 3 is definitely a realistic possibility. Developing effective vaccines and treatments for viruses is difficult. The amount of resources thrown at this will give us the best possible chance but the odds are against us. IMHO anyway.
On a more optimistic note, here are my three criteria for the best case scenario:
1. Immunity post-infection is permanent
2. Asymptomatic infections are by far the most common
3. It’s possible to develop an effective, safe vaccine
4. Antivirals are developed that can prevent most sever cases ending up on a ventilator
Jury’s still out on all four of these. But it’s still early days.
That's true but if that happens (as planned effectively) won't the government come under massive pressure to reinstate the lockdown as the public sees deaths rising?
FAO Noggies
You may enjoy this twitter thread from a pal of mine who’s a doctor in your country.
You may enjoy this twitter thread from a pal of mine who’s a doctor in your country.
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But there is any official lockdown measures, like limiting gatherings (officially). or closing bars and restaurants. No access to the beach in groups, etc... I am not talking to limiting going to work but something official? which stage are you? because it seems to grow rapidly.
Bolsonaro still downplaying or is starting to see it as a problem?
I am already noticing people being less strict. Went for a long walk earlier that involved paths etc. Lots of people about and a lot seemed to be making little effort to stay anywhere near 2m away from me. Some groups of lads on bikes. There was a family having a barbecue (this was in a country park).
I hope that’s true but at this stage we know very little about reinfection
Even Covid-19 doesn’t want to go to Norway?
Even in that case, it is not the end. People will feck more and make more kids. High mortality has always been associated with a high natality rate.
Of course, I don't believe that either of these is going to be true. Very likely there will be some type of immunity (I doubt it will be permanent, not many viruses give permanent immunity), there is no evidence whatsoever that the second infection is going to be worse, and I have confidence that we will find something, be it a vaccine or some treatment. It probably won't be a vaccine with 95% success rate or an antiviral that heals you in all cases, but I believe something is going to be found.
What are you on about? We're not going to conduct that experiment on humans, but animal studies help shape answers that we couldn't get otherwise. This study gave me actual hope that there's durable immunity in the short term.
And to clarify, researchers didn't just do PCR, they did culture too - in other words they weren't just looking for surface protein, they were looking for the actual virus.
Officially only on a state-by-state basis, nothing ordered by the federal government. But it has also proven hard to implement in poorer areas of both major cities and medium/small ones. The access to information is lower and the need for immediate work for income is higher. It is growing rapidly because we're 2-3 weeks behind where New York is (as one reference point, and talking here about Sao Paulo and Rio mostly), and Bolsonaro is still being the absolutely biggest idiot ever to walk the face of the earth (the man has deep, deep issues).
Someone will invent personal hazmat style suits that will allow people to travel on underground etc safely to get to the office etc
Natural selection would prevent that.
About 50% of Londoners uses public transport - so about 4.5 million people. They’re going to need something going forward.
I know, I was just running a thought experiment for the doom and gloom brigade.
We have the 1) it's a nothingburgher camp (just the flu) and the doom and gloom brigade (lockdown for years, until we have a vaccine)
How are things in Cali?
On an tangentially relevant point, seems like Corona brought down Albin Kurti's gov't. How do you think the power struggle with Thaci and the Americans will play out in Prishtina?
Yes all has gone very well lately, we turned the tide with early and strict measures. However, now we are starting up schools in "careful-mode" etc. so we will see how that goes.
I also saw that ECDC wants Norways gov. to recommend using facemasks. The thing is.. it is impossible to get hold of any here.
We are very lucky that this thing did not go south early because there was no readiness reg. equipment etc. whatsoever.
I’m serious. You could wear something like that to travel then hang it in a personal locker at work. There’s a market there for these things now, some kind of weird sci-Fi future is upon us
I hate the idea of having to get back on packed trains to/from the office. But seriously, it’s not possible to get your hands on masks for love nor money
Yeah, with the overcrowded and narrow favelas and the impossibility to implement anything inside the most problematic ones will be difficult. And with the massive population in Sao Paulo... hopefully up north with the heat and humidity will be more difficult to spread (if it is true what they say) but yeah, Bolsonario is quite a piece of work. Do you believe him on that he had covid19?
Jesus wept.. Her pinned tweet
I think I must be a secret nationalist, there's nothing I enjoy more than reading/watching accounts of foreigners who live or have lived in Norway. They're always so nice. Sometimes I check for stories about Norway on BBC or Guardian just to read something nice that a foreigner says about my country. Or else if they say something not nice, smugly dismiss them as ignorant. Oh you don't like the Norwegian prison system? You think Norwegian health care must be bad? How sad for you.
Cycling is a viable alternative in the short term.
I am happy with the gubernatorial response, the governor seems capable and took many matters on his own hands. The number of new daily cases seem to be around 1000, less than 5% of the total number. With 23k cases for a state of more than 40 million people, it is kind of ok.
I think it was a combination of the US pressure via Richard Grenell, Thaci playing his always destructive role and the minor party in the government wanting to take the PM (which ironically, made the speaker of parliament who was the candidate for PM from that party to take the side of Kurti, not of her own party). I guess a constitutional crisis is imminent.
That's been my thought whenever I see someone mention masks. Just... where am I going to get them? Order them off the internet? For this to work, I'm sure the government would have to go about procuring a large supply of masks and ensure that they are distributed. I also admit it would feel very strange using a mask up in the north, where there's barely any infection (though at this point there's barely any infection anywhere that isn't Oslo, and even there it's dropping).
Im hugely sceptical about that.