There are waiting lists for home delivery of up to 1month in some parts of the UK. So yeah, you're telling that person to sit at home, wither and die.
Get a grip mate. Seriously, get a grip.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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There are waiting lists for home delivery of up to 1month in some parts of the UK. So yeah, you're telling that person to sit at home, wither and die.
Get a grip mate. Seriously, get a grip.
Old people spend money too, some of them spend a lot.
The problem with what you suggest is twofold. Firstly it's not only the elderly who are affected, and secondly elderly in the context of this virus is not all that old. The young and middle aged can still easily be knocked off their feet by the virus and need hospital treatment to survive, it wouldn't take long before hospitals are full and the young start dying in big numbers too.
I just pull the mask down over my chin when there is nobody within sight. I don't know how HCWs wear them all day long, they're stifling. They're only effective if you have the virus, but wearing them has been made law here because you don't always know if you have it. That's the point governments are hoping to address by making them mandatory.
Food delivery services. Going to a supermarket knowing you have the virus would be a criminal offence in many countries. I'm surprised if it's not in the UK too.
1% of the world's population is over 70 million people dead.
There is absolutely no way any European country can replicate that I think.
I wonder if the PL could do something like that to host games though.
However you do it herd immunity is likely to require a HIT of 80/85% as Ro seems likely to be higher than 3 and that means millions dead no matter how you get there barring a vaccine.
Does anyone else think that it's time for them to knock these daily updates on the head, or just me?
It's becoming a hindrance now. At the beginning, even as someone who hates them it was a welcome thing to see - there was info to relay, things to tell us.
Now, there's nothing to tell us - it's just the same three helmets stood there repeating the same answers to the same questions:
"we're not ending lockdown yet"
"no vaccine this year"
"we're seeing improvements but not enough yet"
"no we aren't lying about PPE"
This is no longer helpful, if anything I think it's starting to proper piss off a large portion of society who are fed up with being hit around the head with the same information at 5pm every day. A daily reminder of how shit their life is and that it isnt going to get better just yet. "And now we have your daily reminder that your life might well be coming to an end...."
Feck off with it - do it twice a week. Once on a Tues (usually the worst day in terms of numbers) and once on a Fri to summarise any developments that have occurred that week.
It's becoming a hindrance now. At the beginning, even as someone who hates them it was a welcome thing to see - there was info to relay, things to tell us.
Now, there's nothing to tell us - it's just the same three helmets stood there repeating the same answers to the same questions:
"we're not ending lockdown yet"
"no vaccine this year"
"we're seeing improvements but not enough yet"
"no we aren't lying about PPE"
This is no longer helpful, if anything I think it's starting to proper piss off a large portion of society who are fed up with being hit around the head with the same information at 5pm every day. A daily reminder of how shit their life is and that it isnt going to get better just yet. "And now we have your daily reminder that your life might well be coming to an end...."
Feck off with it - do it twice a week. Once on a Tues (usually the worst day in terms of numbers) and once on a Fri to summarise any developments that have occurred that week.
I get what you are saying but I still think there is value in having a daily briefing mostly to continue to emphasise just how serious this continues to be and that people need to keep up the social distancing measures. The fear would be that if you stand it down to 2 times per week then some people will think things have changed and may be more tempted to act like things are much better than they are. Unfortunately this is going to go on for potentially a year or two and we all need to keep having this drummed into us every single day because SOME people need to be told.
I watch it once or twice a week max anyway.
Yes i understand that, but i meant like now its "only" 18 million infected.
That it spreads in a lesser tempo then what we thought, and is not as contagious. Like i said, might. be a stupid question and i see i worded it a little wrong.
Edit : i am in no way trying to downplay the virus in anyway, just so you know.
Thanks. They assume that on the day of 200 deaths 31.3. in Stockholm there was about 20% already infected. Whereas this Geneva sample says it is around 6-7%. Sweden calculates the real number of death, like Belgium, I don't know how real Swiss numbers are for deaths. But I am still willing to bet against Stockholm's numbers/assumptions.
It is only slowing because we are locking down the world not because the virus isn't highly contagious.
I have stopped watching in general to be honest. I just read the summaries online which are basically identical every day, maybe a different helmet's name every other day.
I usually get home from my hike and find my parents looking like they'd like to cry after seeing it. I keep tellign them to stop watching it because there is nothing new to hear, but oh well.
They are probably watching it looking for any signs of hope that things will change for the better soon. For those who have to self-isolate this is probably the only bit of hope they can cling on to so I totally get why they watch it. For those of us lucky enough to still be able to leave the house, even only once per day, I don't think we can fully understand what it must be like for those who can't.
Here our health authority decided at the last minute (right before the first wave finished) to test quarantined hotels, and luckily avoided releasing some positives to the community.
14 day quarantines are nowhere near enough for containment if you don't test them. Even if you do, some false negatives will slip through. I don't think it's realistic to completely isolate a large island from the disease.
We have since extended the hotel quarantines to more 14 days at home after they leave the hotel. But these are nowhere near as easy to enforce.
You could stretch it to 40 at least. In England only 126 COVID deaths have been under 40, out of 16k. That would also allow me to leave the house again!
I can see how that might attract some people, particularly those who don't feel they are at risk now. However if you multiply the potential hosts you are multiplying the potential number of mutations of the virus. Most of these mutations will be to reduce the lethality of the disease, as a virus wants it's host to survive. However it would also increase the likelihood of a more lethal mutation occurring. So it would be a very high stakes roll of the dice to do this.
This is essentially what happened with the second wave in the "spanish Flu" pandemic. The first wave seemed to die away and everyone returned back to normal over the early summer, but in September a second wave with an incredibly lethal mutation swept rapidly aroound the world that went on to kill far more people than the first.
Also young people should consider that the 2nd wave in 1918 actually was more lethal among younger / fitter people as their immune systems put up a bigger fight against the virus leading to more rapid deaths with people drowning in watery blood.
If we think that we can afford to lose a few older people now for an economic benefit further down the line we may get a very nasty surprise.
Exercise Cygnus was a simulation of a flu pandemic, carried out in 2016.
What lessons were learned?
Raab, "Dunno! TLDR"
What lessons were learned?
Raab, "Dunno! TLDR"
Yeah its more likely to be based on vulnerability and health than age. It'll be a general 'if you're of working age and have no health issues' type statement. Once lockdown measures are released a little, employers will start expecting some home-workers to return to the workplace. It'll definitely be gauged on individual merit - I, for example, will definitely be going back to the office. 37, very good health, no previous health issues, no children, no child-care concerns and in late summer I'm going to be living close to the office so no commuting necessary.
Exceptions will probably be made too for people who mentally are struggling with concept of having to 'be around people' again. If you're nervous about leaving home, you'll be given leniency obviously.
Absolute cnuts, the lot of them. Cnuts.
I'd love to see some of them in court after all this blows over. They took Blair to court didn't they over the WOMD bullshit, why shouldnt the same be done for these reptiles who have completely botched it from way before day one.
You’re talking about herd immunity as though its binary. If you could ‘safely’ infect every 20-40 year old in a country and - another big if - that gave them long term immunity - you’d have a highly effective buffer to take the edge off future outbreaks. Plus there’s the big economic upside of keeping them out there, working and spending money.
This would be very possible for all ages if everyone used facemasks. Then there is the question on the supply of said masks... If we had an infinite amount of masks and everyone used them when leaving their house, the chance of spreading the disease would be +90% lower compared to a similar scenario where no one used facemasks. And one could have a fully functioning society without movement restrictions (bars and clubs would be an obvious problem) with an R well below 1.
For a while it would be yes, but after X amount of time it would become feasible. Your point is spot on though, it's really, really weird why facemasks haven't been implemented here when you can see the rewards in some other countries.
Do you think it's possible that the government isn't mentioning them, because they know the supply isn't there, and it would be yet another stick to beat them with? A political decision, then...
Any data to back this up? I’ve heard a few ID specialists who wouldn’t put the figure anywhere near that. Some of them think facemasks could increase transmission because people get more reckless about social distancing (which sounds like the scenario you’re describing, with busy pubs and clubs)
So that'd be something like a 100% increase in death rate over a single year? But perhaps it's realistic to say 30% extra deaths over 3 years for the sake of argument? And many of these people aren't so far away from the grave anyway... So maybe 25% increase in deaths for a few years?
I wonder how people are supposed to keep their facemasks on and not touch them in pubs and clubs while I assume drinking, eating or kissing from time to time.
I believe there are a few reasons to be careful about encouraging the public's use of face masks, scarcity being the current motivation by the establishment.
Also, people using incorrectly.
Handling and cross-contamination is a real issue with PPE and the uninitiated.
Length of use.
Not in comfort terms, though that should not be discounted, but using a damp, warm breeding substrate for all manner of bugs and nasties, by not discarding sooner.
Creation of tonnes of bio hazard waste, we're not geared up to handle.
Counterfeit supplies putting people at risk.
False sense of security and the effect on distancing, and to surface contamination.
There are probably plenty more considerations. These are just some I've discussed at work.
Its the appetite for the 24/7 news cycle that's been built up over years that is driving this. In such cycles, generally we get some factual information, but lots of guesswork and self-opinions from so called 'specialist' journalists and news presenters, assistant editors, etc. keen to make a name for themselves. With this virus being a pandemic, its virtually the same news story all over the world, as well as in the UK.
I suspect what we now really need is only the factual information and only when proper 'fact-checked' figures are released.
The speculation driven by the need for 24/7 bulletins, about lockdown ending etc. is doing more harm than good.
That seems to be higher than Spain and Italy, i wonder why. Here there have been 54 under 40 out of 22,000, and only 10 had nothing else wrong with them.
Exactly. And @Verminator has also got a good list of the flaws in this approach.
Personally, I think they might have a role to play as an additional measure during lockdown but it would be asking for trouble to try and rely on them to go back to the way of living we enjoyed before the lockdown.
Higher % of BAME in the Uk?
I think it's an issue with the guidelines from WHO as well. They will be underpinned by scientists who will be giving the best scientifically backed advice they can as of the time. As the science and knowledge of the virus improves this advice will change.
In the 24 hour news cycle this has got translated as being incorrect information and being slow, but it is just the way science works using the information available at the time. WHO were never going to tell the world to stop in December / January based on snippets of information and with lab results being investigated but hindsight is now being used to say this was wrong.
The media is so black and white with their reporting but something like this will always be progressive advice as the knowledge of the virus builds over months and the years to come.
Could be. There's clearly a great disparity between different country's fatality rates. It will be interesting to see when this is over if it was purely down to prevalence of testing or if there were other factors.
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No chance. You've not encountered my daughters
In the UK, people were found to be deliberately coughing on others, so it was made illegal [source]. Yes, it really did happen :/. I guess the main reason "knowingly being infected and going out" hasn't been made illegal is at the time, most, if not all the tests were carried out for people already in hospitals and NHS workers. Now that the test is expanding to other key workers and individuals (very slowly) perhaps the law will change in this regard to be more explicit.
The WHO actually recommend you do not remove the mask [source].
I can understand why some governments have made the decision to make masks compulsory. I am certainly not in any position to criticise that.
TL: DR: I do think they have to do that.
However, I just feel that sometimes a lot of nonsense is being said both (1) to the general public or (2) by members of the public.
Regarding (1), i.e. what is being said to the public, I worry a lot about these home made masks and "advice how to make them". I don't really buy into any of it to be honest. At least not yet. The reason for this is because as far as I understand it, none of them have been tested properly. Even if a test or standard existed however, how can you guarantee people can make them properly to those standards? It leads to a situation where the masks have variable effectiveness, or perhaps none whatsoever. People are rightly mad about a test for the virus being only 75% accurate, but don't seem to have any problems with there being little or no(?) knowledge about how effective wearing home made masks are?!
Regarding (2), i.e. what members of the general public are saying, earlier in the thread we had an individual say something along the lines of "3M masks are best". Another individual was going to wear a mask just going for a walk, with no one around. Both comments were nonsense really. Some other individuals thought you could just wash these disposable masks and re-use them, or I think the implication was to wash home made ones. Thankfully someone posted an article saying you really need a specific set of conditions to clean the masks and it did not appear you can replicate those conditions at home, at least not yet. The WHO also say you cannot reuse single use (disposable) masks [source].
On top of both (1) and (2), the science of how effective it is for the general public to be wearing masks to limit the spread of infection still isn't clear. I've seen two videos where some of the science was discussed. Both had flaws in basic terminology. I saw another article where the author(s) stated (t)he(y) would release simulation details on linkedin. Absolutely bizarre, something I've never come across before and sets the alarm bells ringing. Note that the WHO still doesn't advice the public to wear masks. One reason given was that there is a risk that "they can be contaminated by other people's coughs and sneezes, or when putting them on or removing them" [source].
Having said all of that, I'm not adverse to the general public wearing masks and I certainly don't envy the policy makers having to make difficult decisions. I can understand the need to err on the side of caution and understand the decisions made. But I just think we need far better communication to the general public and ideally we also need people to wear masks which have been approved.
Interestingly though, we are seeing very little said about gloves. How do we know that wearing masks is more effective than wearing gloves (assuming social distancing/ isolation etc)? We know surfaces can be contaminated for a significant period of time but no one seems bothered by being infected via touching surfaces anymore. It is just all about masks. The discussion just seems a little haphazard. Wearing some PPE but not all. It leads to situations where we have individuals walking into a supermarket with full PPE.
I guess I am quite frustrated by everything. I want us to be led by clear science, but at the same time, I realize this isn't always possible and you need to be conservative. As I said this is extremely frustrating. I also don't want us to live in a society where wearing PPE becomes the norm. I would much rather we come up with engineering solutions to reduce pollution or better education to stay at home when ill etc. I do worry a lot that these sort of policies to wear masks will become the norm but I guess this worry isn't really important right now.
I agree, I think this is a good idea. Better for the UK to now have two meetings a week.
Utter bollocks. If I had to self quarantine tomorrow, I'd easily survive a month without withering away and dying.
There are plenty of delivery options, not just the main supermarkets.
This isn't even worthy of discussion - it's such a ridiculous position for you to take. Let's spread the virus instead of keeping away from everyone - great idea.
Comes in with a wooden cross and soon to be in a wooden box
I wonder what policy governments are going to push on the vaccine. Will it be mandatory for everyone, and if so, what measures will be taken against the anti vaxxers?
Personally I think I would be all for forcing people who refuse to take the vaccine because they believe it will give them autism, turn gay, turn frogs gay or similar to stay inside your home for the unforseable future. I mean, if the consequense is that everyone has to stay as much as possible at home and social distancing for years, I'd rather lock up the nutters and let the rest of the sane world who believes in science live a normal life.
Personally I think I would be all for forcing people who refuse to take the vaccine because they believe it will give them autism, turn gay, turn frogs gay or similar to stay inside your home for the unforseable future. I mean, if the consequense is that everyone has to stay as much as possible at home and social distancing for years, I'd rather lock up the nutters and let the rest of the sane world who believes in science live a normal life.