SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

ManUArfa

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....and Solskjaer has won it!
That isn't what the unions want and it is totally disingenuous to suggest so.

I think you, like everyone on this thread, have something to contribute. We are all learning, we are all hopefully polite individuals. But as far as I can tell, so far in this thread, you've accused others of making it political, while showing a clear political bias yourself and have approached conversations with people who on paper probably know more than you on this topic with unnecessary aggression imo.

It isn't really useful or conducive to a good debate or learning environment, for anyone involved.
Actually I just like to challenge politically based viewpoints with the opposing position. They do not necessarily reflect my own view. If it makes people think about what they post and how they interpret what they read that's surely good for an overall debate.
 

Pogue Mahone

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I have a colleague who knows one of the leads in the Oxford trial. He says she's very confident so we'll see. I hope they're right and as @Pogue Mahone said, seems vaccine development has come on leaps and bounds over the past few years.

I'd also be very surprised if infection doesn't give you at least some short-mid term immunity but we'll see as time goes on I guess!
I think the optimism is reasonably well founded because of all the recent breakthroughs in novel vaccine development and lots of really encouraging pre-clinical data (which isn’t always the case). They’ve been seeing exactly what they hoped to see in most animal models, including maquaqes (probably spelt that wrong)

Obviously, many a promising new drug has got scuppered despite excellent pre-clinical data...
 

Pogue Mahone

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There seems to be some optimistic news in fairly informed circles that a vaccine may be nearer that we thought.
https://www.afr.com/life-and-luxury...el-prize-and-i-don-t-give-a-s-20200506-p54qhb

It isn't a given but I'd be surprised if the majority of people who have had it aren't wholey or partially immune for a year or three as an immune response is usual and the virus is mutating slowly, as is normal with rna viruses.

As you say viruses normally slowly mutate to be less deadly, as killing your host reduces their evolutionary fitness.
Best Headline Ever but is behind a paywall for me.
 

africanspur

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Actually I just like to challenge politically based viewpoints with the opposing position. They do not necessarily reflect my own view. If it makes people think about what they post and how they interpret what they read that's surely good for an overall debate.
I completely agree that it is important to challenge views. While the overall political leaning of the Cafe is very similar to my own, I do feel many threads end up becoming almost unchallenged echo chambers, which can be comforting but not particularly useful to understand how other people think.

I feel in this case though, most of the criticism of the government has been totally valid (and non-partisan). And even if you feel it isn't, I think it is unfair to suggest that teaching unions want the total end of the pandemic as their condition for going back to work safely for example.

It is good that your local school has been taking measures in advance, I would have hoped many schools would have been doing exactly that. It is not unreasonable however to expect reasonable guidance from the government on this stuff. It also seems to have been the case in many other countries that their governments have been far more detail based on step for lockdown because, in this case, a misstep by one or two groups can lead to clusters of cases again and far more trouble down the line.
 

BootsyCollins

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Anyone else tired of Corona?

And i dont mean tired like "im tired hearing about the Kardashians", i mean like physically tired of it consuming everything from shopping food to every newsbroadcast.
I am afraid people eventually are going to get so tired they stop caring.
"feck this, i am done washing my hands every hour. If i get it i get it" that kind of attitude is what i am afraid of.

Walking around beeing afraid, not hysterical, has broken me a little bit i guess. Like i just feel less happy now.
And i am in no way trying to compare what i am feeling to people who lost loved ones, been hospitalized or died from this obviously. I guess i just wanted to see if anyone else felt this way? Like the disease has infected me, without actually beeing infected, in a major way.

“I wish it need not have happened in my time,” said Frodo. “So do I,” said Gandalf, “and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”
I guess i am saying i feel a bit like Frodo right now.
 

Wolverine

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I have a colleague who knows one of the leads in the Oxford trial. He says she's very confident so we'll see. I hope they're right and as @Pogue Mahone said, seems vaccine development has come on leaps and bounds over the past few years.

I'd also be very surprised if infection doesn't give you at least some short-mid term immunity but we'll see as time goes on I guess!
I just hope its not rushed. And it has good evidence-base behind it. It's likely they'll shorten the time to study for its efficacy and safety but just hope its done through a large dataset

Just slightly concerned with lack of evidence-base that's guiding policy. I mean I'm not one of these cochrane die-hards when it comes to EBM but take these antibody tests for example that have been approved in the UK, Roche and Abbott. Both claiming high sensitivity and specificities (above 99.5% for both)

However, according to these two links below Public Health England has not disclosed how many samples its evaluation of the Abbott tests were based on and, for the 14 day endpoint, Roche's sensitivity claim is only from a dataset of a measly 29 samples!
https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/ar.../roche-takes-abbott-covid-19-antibody-testing
https://www.ft.com/content/14b69e2b-c55b-48e0-8c66-2232f2e857df
 

Massive Spanner

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I'm intrigued as to how we'll manage in Ireland this summer. looks like it'll be another dry summer which will mean water restrictions again (like two years ago) but.. how do you restrict water whilst telling people to wash their hands for 20 seconds every time they've been outside?
 

fergieisold

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Anyone else tired of Corona?

And i dont mean tired like "im tired hearing about the Kardashians", i mean like physically tired of it consuming everything from shopping food to every newsbroadcast.
I am afraid people eventually are going to get so tired they stop caring.
"feck this, i am done washing my hands every hour. If i get it i get it" that kind of attitude is what i am afraid of.

Walking around beeing afraid, not hysterical, has broken me a little bit i guess. Like i just feel less happy now.
And i am in no way trying to compare what i am feeling to people who lost loved ones, been hospitalized or died from this obviously. I guess i just wanted to see if anyone else felt this way? Like the disease has infected me, without actually beeing infected, in a major way.

“I wish it need not have happened in my time,” said Frodo. “So do I,” said Gandalf, “and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”
I guess i am saying i feel a bit like Frodo right now.
I've avoided the news for a while and looked today...there's quite a difference. Seems like this whole thing isn't over but everyone is bored and decided 'feck it' lets get back to normal and take our chances. Definitely looking forward to my holidays in France in August now!
 

RedRover

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Exactly, people will rather take what is a small risk all told (as horrific as the death number looks in isolation it really isn't that many in the context of the overall population) than just merely exist, infact I'm not sure I'd want to live just to merely exist, which is pretty much what we're all doing at this point.
Indeed.

I've just seen an article on Facebook posted by my local newspaper an hour or so ago about the local cinema potentially opening in July. There are 60 plus of comments on it already from people who appear utterly terrified of the virus. One makes the point that we've had 38 new cases confirmed in the last few days (the town is approx. 90,000 people and has recently increased testing) as proof that we all need to stay in. Every other comment is about infection rates "rocketing" in the next few weeks. We had the same comments on there over the Easter weekend a few weeks ago. That hasn't happened.

Personally I think people will, as time goes on become indifferent to the risk as the threat of the virus becomes a normality and the hysteria dies down.

Humans are social beings and there is only one way to impose a "new normal" and that's by force, but at the end of the day people value freedom above all else. Politicians realise this and eventually will bend to what the people want. It's already happening with the way in which lockdown has been partially lifted - the narrative is "this is now on you general public", and it takes the blame away from them.
 

Pogue Mahone

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I just hope its not rushed. And it has good evidence-base behind it. It's likely they'll shorten the time to study for its efficacy and safety but just hope its done through a large dataset

Just slightly concerned with lack of evidence-base that's guiding policy. I mean I'm not one of these cochrane die-hards when it comes to EBM but take these antibody tests for example that have been approved in the UK, Roche and Abbott. Both claiming high sensitivity and specificities (above 99.5% for both)

However, according to these two links below Public Health England has not disclosed how many samples its evaluation of the Abbott tests were based on and, for the 14 day endpoint, Roche's sensitivity claim is only from a dataset of a measly 29 samples!
https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/ar.../roche-takes-abbott-covid-19-antibody-testing
https://www.ft.com/content/14b69e2b-c55b-48e0-8c66-2232f2e857df
To be fair, it’s specificity that you would want the higher burden of proof. Which comes from several thousand samples. A few false negatives won’t cause much harm.
 

Zexstream

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The downward trend seems to continue in Belgium.
Daily number of new cases rises in Belgium to 356

Belgium recorded 356 new cases of Covid-19 in the last 24 hours, 49 more cases than on Thursday, the second consecutive increase, with the country totaling 54,644 infected, according to official data released today. There were also 56 new deaths from Covid-19, four less than 60 on Thursday, with the country now totaling 8,959 deaths due to the pandemic.

According to today's data, in the last 24 hours 67 people were still hospitalized (81 on Thursday), for a total of 16,540, and 190 were discharged (173 the day before), which makes 14,301 recovered. Also in the last 24 hours, 21,686 laboratory tests were carried out, totaling 645,314 since the beginning of March.

https://observador.pt/2020/05/15/governo-reune-se-para-decidir-proxima-fase-de-desconfinamento/
 

Pogue Mahone

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Daily number of new cases rises in Belgium to 356

Belgium recorded 356 new cases of Covid-19 in the last 24 hours, 49 more cases than on Thursday, the second consecutive increase, with the country totaling 54,644 infected, according to official data released today. There were also 56 new deaths from Covid-19, four less than 60 on Thursday, with the country now totaling 8,959 deaths due to the pandemic.

According to today's data, in the last 24 hours 67 people were still hospitalized (81 on Thursday), for a total of 16,540, and 190 were discharged (173 the day before), which makes 14,301 recovered. Also in the last 24 hours, 21,686 laboratory tests were carried out, totaling 645,314 since the beginning of March.

https://observador.pt/2020/05/15/governo-reune-se-para-decidir-proxima-fase-de-desconfinamento/
Bollox.
 

onemanarmy

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Zexstream

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There are less people in the hospitals, less people on intensive care and less deaths. More people are being tested.

https://d34j62pglfm3rr.cloudfront.net/downloads/news/numbers_20200515_NL.pdf
Remember at the start of this, not everyone ended up in hospitals straight away, its a process. It starts with more people being infected and eventually more people needing ICU.

Sure increased testing can show this, but we need to know if the increased testing is showing this or if these are cases presenting themselves without testing.
 

Pagh Wraith

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Well if Case numbers continue to increase day on day it either indicates more infected or more tests being done. So not at all meaningless.
I've just edited my post above. I've explained this to you already in the PL thread. You cannot compare case numbers from two consecutive days. And I don't understand why you apparently scan the news and stats websites to specifically look for countries that have seen an increase from the previous day (which may not even be an increase at all because case data may just have been transmitted that day and does not tell you when people got infected) to make a point.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Whats bollox?

It's evident that the case numbers in Belgium have increased from yesterday.
Bollox as in damn, that’s not good news. It’s depressing hearing about countries further out of lockdown than my country with cases on the rise.

EDIT: although I agree with @Pagh Wraith. 7 day rolling average more useful.
 

onemanarmy

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Remember at the start of this, not everyone ended up in hospitals straight away, its a process. It starts with more people being infected and eventually more people needing ICU.

Sure increased testing can show this, but we need to know if the increased testing is showing this or if these are cases presenting themselves without testing.
7 day averages are dropping massively too. Virologists and experts are happy with the numbers and are optimistic. I'm going with their opinion.
 

Zexstream

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Portugal has 28,583 confirmed cases of Covid-19, according to the Report of the General Directorate of Health on the epidemiological situation in the country this Friday, the 15th. There was an increase of 264 cases, in a percentage increase of 0.9%, plus 0 , 2% than the day before. The number of deaths rose from 1,184 to 1,190, just six more, which reduced the lethality rate by 4.19%. Finally, the number of recovered cases rose to 3,328, 130 more than the day before, an increase of 4.1% - still a total of 779 since Tuesday.

https://observador.pt/2020/05/15/governo-reune-se-para-decidir-proxima-fase-de-desconfinamento/
 

Zexstream

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Child dies in France with symptoms similar to Kawasaki disease


A nine-year-old child died in France after registering symptoms similar to those of Kawasaki's disease, described in young people who had contact with the coronavirus, the first such death in the country, his doctor announced today.

The child, who died due to “neurological damage linked to cardiac arrest”, had “a serology that showed he had been in contact” with the coronavirus, but did not have the symptoms of Covid-19, the agency France-Presse said. Professor Fabrice Michel, head of the pediatric resuscitation service at La Timone in Marseille (south-east), confirming information from the daily La Provence.

https://observador.pt/2020/05/15/governo-reune-se-para-decidir-proxima-fase-de-desconfinamento/

This Kawasaki disease keeps cropping up in New York, seems to be something new?
 

Pagh Wraith

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I agree, however, we can comment on reports can we not?
You can but seem to be cherry-picking quite a bit. And I really have to question the news outlets drawing conclusions that quickly. In Belgium's case (and I have no idea who reports what there and how accurate the numbers for each day are), I see a clear downward trend and a 40% drop from last Friday just looking at the Worldometer numbers. For Germany you reported a tripling of case numbers (from Sunday to Monday) but Worldometer (which uses data from the Johns Hopkins University) actually showed a decline. The numbers ultimately add up to the same total but are distributed differently which is another reason why comparing two consective days (which is a tiny sample anyway) is pretty meaningless.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Child dies in France with symptoms similar to Kawasaki disease


A nine-year-old child died in France after registering symptoms similar to those of Kawasaki's disease, described in young people who had contact with the coronavirus, the first such death in the country, his doctor announced today.

The child, who died due to “neurological damage linked to cardiac arrest”, had “a serology that showed he had been in contact” with the coronavirus, but did not have the symptoms of Covid-19, the agency France-Presse said. Professor Fabrice Michel, head of the pediatric resuscitation service at La Timone in Marseille (south-east), confirming information from the daily La Provence.

https://observador.pt/2020/05/15/governo-reune-se-para-decidir-proxima-fase-de-desconfinamento/

This Kawasaki disease keeps cropping up in New York, seems to be something new?
Been reported in lots of other countries too.
 

cyberman

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From my local 9 hole course. A lot of common sense here

IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR ALL MEMBERS
As we gear ourselves for the return to golf on Monday 18th May, all the members will be obligated to do their part to ensure the return to golf runs smoothly and safely.
As well as the protocol issued by the GUI & ILGU, members need to be aware that in order for things to run smoothly -
THE FOLLOWING MUST BE STRICTLY ADHERED TOO
1. MEMBERS ONLY and Booking of a tee time is essential and will be by phone only. Contact the club office on 074 9362279 and all names have to be supplied for the purpose of contact tracing.
2. A TIMESHEET IS IN OPERATION AT ALL TIMES. Under no circumstances should anyone turn up at the club without a pre-booked tee time. YOU WILL NOT BE WELCOMED AND WILL NOT BE PERMITTED TO PLAY. NO EXCEPTIONS
3. The club has decided that play will be in a Maximum of 3 balls at a 14 minute interval and each each golfer will only be allowed 9 Holes per day. 2 Balls & Single golfers are welcome.
4. All clubs & equipment must be removed from the locker room & must not be returned after. It is recommended all clubs should be stored in your car boot as the locker room is off limits and is only open for the retrieval of clubs initially.
5. You may NOT change in or around the clubhouse.
6. Only 1 group (3 max) will be allowed around the clubhouse / 1st Tee at anyone time. DO NOT approach the 1st Tee / Clubhouse if another group or anyone outside your playing group is there already. Please wait in the car park until the area is clear and it is safe for you to approach. Only 1 person will be allowed entry to the clubhouse at a time
7. Members who have booked a tee time are to arrive on the tee 5 minutes Prior and ready to play or else they will lose their tee time.
8. Under 18’s must be accompanied by an adult member or an ADULT family member at all times. BOOKING IS ESSENTIAL.
9. All golfers should have their own private hand sanitizer when playing golf at the club.
10. The Last Teetime is at 7.30pm after which the clubhouse will be locked each and every night.

Please read the full GUI / ILGU guide before play

Although the committee has chosen the 3 balls / 14 minute timesheet allocation, 2 balls will be permitted to book a tee time on the understanding that the play amongst 3 balls could be slower and there will no necessity for any 3 ball to apply the normal etiquette.

It is also important to remember that the initial return to golf is for members only and unfortunately member’s guests and visitors will not be able to use the facilities until June 8th 2020 at the earliest.
 

JPRouve

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Child dies in France with symptoms similar to Kawasaki disease


A nine-year-old child died in France after registering symptoms similar to those of Kawasaki's disease, described in young people who had contact with the coronavirus, the first such death in the country, his doctor announced today.

The child, who died due to “neurological damage linked to cardiac arrest”, had “a serology that showed he had been in contact” with the coronavirus, but did not have the symptoms of Covid-19, the agency France-Presse said. Professor Fabrice Michel, head of the pediatric resuscitation service at La Timone in Marseille (south-east), confirming information from the daily La Provence.

https://observador.pt/2020/05/15/governo-reune-se-para-decidir-proxima-fase-de-desconfinamento/

This Kawasaki disease keeps cropping up in New York, seems to be something new?
It's not new, it has been reported in early April-late March.
 

Withnail

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You probably don’t need it but they’re cheap to buy and don’t do any harm. Vit D deficiency is quite common in Ireland because of our shite weather. If your complexion is in any way dark you’re more likely to need a top up (I’m kind of swarthy)
hmm me too, I do take a tan quite well. The missus is Vit D defficient and is a nightmare for keeping up with her prescription so I might just buy a load.

As you say it can't do any harm.
 

Pogue Mahone

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FootballHQ

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Quite honestly I think we haven't seen anything yet. The worst is yet to come.
100k + deaths in winter even with more lockdowns?

I am fearful of winter aswell tbh. Hopefully we at least get some form of July-August-September to do stuff when the weather is o.k.
 

sglowrider

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Why are you ignoring what people tell you?

@Arruda already told you that the prothrombotic and vasculitic complications aren’t seen with flu. He’s a doctor. So understands this shit better than you. So is @Wolverine. So am I. A lot of the potential long term complications are common to all ITU patients and/or seen with other severe viral infections. But not all of them.

Wading into this thread picking arguments with - and repeatedly ignoring explanations provided by - people better qualified than you is not a good look.
The death of expertise.
 

Garethw

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My sister in law teaches Year 3 students and has been told that she will not be allowed to wear a face mask in case it scares the children.