Eight games away from another disastrous season under Ole

[elmo]

What are xPTS? is that like some storeytime thing?

Storeytime's far better.

 

[Deery]

That's more of the intention no?

Possession based football can still be entertaining, it's just up to the coach and how the players implement it.

It’s just the right manager we need then, it’s a matter of where do we get him?

 

[Paul_Scholes18]

What are xPTS? is that like some storeytime thing?

Expected points based on expected goals in games. It doesn't tell you very much how good a team is since defending a lead count as negative since you allow chances and creates few yourself.

 

[Bilbo]

Would help if we weren't on course for another pathetic season scoring less than 60 league goals. And that's despite Solskjaer's constant stream of "United way" propaganda.

Started the sadly very badly. Improving all the time. Exactly what we should have hoped for under the circumstances

 

[Withnail]

And my point is that the overall quality of the team is just a minor improvement over last year.

And this started in response to a poster who said "For the first time in a while I dont think we need major surgery to be successful"

I would agree with him and amn't sure what your point is in that context to be honest.

 

[SER19]

Only on here is a manager 'lucky' for making good signings. He's had pogba out for almost a full season, Rashford out too, and lockdown came as we were in our best form post Ferguson with 2 conceded in 11.

I don't like comparing previous points totals. We won the league once with 78. If we get one of our lower points totals but top 4 what's the issue? What if we come 5th and win the cup.

He's overseeing the biggest rebuild post fergie and there is no instant fix. We've tried that. It doesn't work. We are quite clearly better off now than under any before him apart from mourinhos first season

Such an odd time to raise these issues when the trajectory is clearly going the right way as his first full season goes on

 

[Nick7]

Expected points based on expected goals in games. It doesn't tell you very much how good a team is since defending a lead count as negative since you allow chances and creates few yourself.

God I really do hate those "expected" stats. They're completely devoid of in game context.

 

[Withnail]

That's what I'm saying. Fans hated his football because it was pretty boring, if he was trying to be entertaining he failed miserably and the end result was crap, dull football, so fans hated what he offered.

but it was ATTACKING football!

 

[romufc]

I think there are 3 pillars to what I would expect from a high-quality manager:

1. Delivering good results: Results haven't been great. Simple as that. There's an argument around Injuries and buying Bruno earlier, but the fact is we've lost/drawn a fair number of games against smaller teams that we really should have the quality to put away. However, if he gets CL football (and potentially a cup in addition), that's a successful transition season for me
2. Developing a high-quality squad: Ole has done really well on this count and who ever takes up this squad, will have a strong foundation to build upon. This wasn't an easy task, and he's generally bought and sold very well with a long-term focus. He's also done a great job of giving chances to our academy players, some of whom have established themselves as first-team squad members
3. Instituting a clear playing philosophy: This is where my main doubts lie with Ole. Look at the top managers in the world; they all have a clear playing philosophy that's actively innovating on how tactics can be applied. For Pep it's a mix of positioning fluidity and tactical fouling/pressing, for Klopp it's vertical transitions and gegenpressing, for Poch it's pressing and physicality in a counter-attacking focus and for Conte it's congesting midfield and using the spare CB to direct wing overloads. That's why someone like Nagelsmann is interesting, with his push to integrate perspective on "individual plays" from Rugby and understand how that can be applied in terms of footballing tactics. In general, he seems better at negating the other team's tactics (e.g., City, Liverpool, Chelsea) versus proactively imprinting his style of play. That's not to say it's the be-all and end-all, but it's definitely something he needs to show more of.

Obviously Ole has made it clear he expects us to be a counter-attacking team that breaks with pace, but beyond that it's unclear if he actually has a system / playing philosophy beyond platitudes to the Manchester United way under Fergie. I love the man, but would love to see more to convince in the long term. Particularly since a lot of special coaches are available now (Poch, Nagelsmann), that might not be the case in a year or two similar to how we missed the Klopp/Pep boat and settled for LVG.

One thing on the playing philosophy - Compare all the managers you have mentioned teams in terms of consistency. How often has Ole had the chance to pick his best 11 for a consistent period.

Since Pep got injuries, they struggled.
Poch struggled this season.

We have been unlucky in this department.

 

[elmo]

And this started in response to a poster who said "For the first time in a while I dont think we need major surgery to be successful"

I would agree with him and amn't sure what your point is in that context to be honest.

That we still need loads of improvements at 5 positions in our starting 11 compared to 7 from Jose's time.

 

[el3mel]

but it was ATTACKING football!

It was as far away from attaking as it can get. His style was about controlling the ball in his own half for the majority of the game to decrease attacks on us and waiting for a chance or 2 to get and score. Very, very defensive and it showed in our overall attacking stats in second season (49 goals in 38 matches of the league).

LVG put on a decent first season overall and there were many positives to take on at this time and I was totally behind him back then but he fecked it up completely in his second season, fecked the squad and style of play. As the time went on I hated everything about him.

 

[100]

Ole's still making progress with the squad. There's no pressure to sack him like with Mourinho because he's not digging a bigger hole and wanting to make short term fixes.

The squad is younger, fitter and healthier. We're in a position that a new manager will benefit from.

There are still problems to deal with that you're better having Ole have a shot at and getting out of the way than troubling a potential a new manager with.

It's win-win for the club. Ole deals with cleaning everything up and the club can get a new manager in if it goes tits up, without causing long term damage.

 

[elmo]

It was as far away from attaking as it can get. His style was about controlling the ball in his own half for the majority of the game to decrease attacks on us and waiting for a chance or 2 to get and score. Very, very defensive and it showed in our overall attacking stats in second season (49 goals in 38 matches of the league).

LVG put on a decent first season overall and there were many positives to take on at this time and I was totally behind him back then but he fecked it up completely in his second season, fecked the squad and style of play. As the time went on I hated everything about him.

Can't fault his interviews though, those were hilarious.

 

[Fitchett]

Rubbish. We’ve been without key players the entire season, what ‘individual brilliance’ are you speaking of? Martial? Ffs.

We’ve ground out results to get where we are, we’ve had poor spells which are directly affected by the injuries.

Recruitement is spot on and the football is better than it’s been since SAF. Yes better than Mourinho, yes better than LVG and yes better than Moyes (obviously.)
Whilst youth has been brought into the mix soundly, in keeping with our club philosophy.

It’s not even a defence of Ole, it’s a defence of the obvious.
Who tha feck would you sack Ole for right now?

It’s the first time since SAF that we can see the direction the club is headed, no short term fixes, long term planning and sound recruitment.

I’m sure some people just enjoy the feckin carousel of managers and the drama of it all.

We’ve been a feckin laughing stock these last 6 years, make no mistake, a joke.
Im fecked if I’m going to sack the one guy who at least is trying to put the pieces together and push the club in the right direction.

Put it this way, do you think Sancho would even consider moving to United if it wasn’t for Ole and what he represents as a manager who backs youth but also a manager who’s turning this juggernaut of a club out of the mire? Not a chance.

We’ve beaten the best clubs in the land, it’s consistency we’ve lacked, through additional talented recruitment that will follow.

Absolutely spot on post.

 

[Deery]

But that's exactly what this is. Another thread to bash Ole.

As you said, Ole is building a strong foundation. He's promoting youth, he's trying to implement an attacking, pressing style that most of us want. I agree it's taking time but it was always going to take a long time.

And let's face it we aren't out of the race for top four yet. So long as we are making progress, no matter how slow, I'm loathed to destroy that by bringing in a new 'big name' manager who will have his own idea's and philosophy.

No matter what manager comes in, there will be a period where they are trying to implement their philosophy, a 'transition period' that people hate the sound of. Well we are coming out the arse end of Ole's transition period, let's see what the guy can do with a fit and firing team that has been improved in many areas.

Threads like this, when they are unwarranted, serve nothing but to bring the mood of the forum down and perpetuate the constant need to swap manager.

I think he gets another season, then see where we are..

I already said the article was bullshit only designed to play on our insecurities, probably shouldn’t even be a thread..

 

[Withnail]

God I really do hate those "expected" stats. They're completely devoid of in game context.

Overall they can be a good indicator of a team's form and if they are over-performing or under-performing.

Take a look at Leicester. They were out-performing xG for and against for much of the season and over the last while it looks like we are seeing a regression to the mean.

 

[Cheimoon]

I don't like comparing previous points totals. We won the league once with 78. If we get one of our lower points totals but top 4 what's the issue? What if we come 5th and win the cup.

Totally agree. If United reach fifth this season (regardless of whether that'll give access to the CL), then Ole has done a good job this season, given the circumstances.

If that's Ole's ceiling, for example because he might not have the tactical nous to reach top 4 consistently, there would be a problem. I have no idea about that myself, but simply saying 'we reached only x points and that's by definition an issue, regardless of context' makes little sense to me.

 

[MUFromLTU]

What are xPTS? is that like some storeytime thing?

In short - total amount of expected points based on the amount and quality chances you create/your opponent creates throughout the season.

It's what we use to create opening odds on any games, which are later influenced by bettors. There are some free websites, like Understat, who have way smaller samples than us, but it's still way more accurate than actual points on predicting future outcomes and has dramatically improved accuracy of starting odds since most oddsmakers started to use it.

It can be drastically "off" if you look at one season, for example this season's Liverpool or us when Jose took us to 2nd place, however if you look at the top6 of Premier League over last 10 years, none of the teams are more than 5 xPts away from actual points.

 

[Paul_Scholes18]

God I really do hate those "expected" stats. They're completely devoid of in game context.

They are fun to look at, but do not tell very much what is going on.
Like if a side take their chances and go 2-0 up early from low xG the other side might attack more and the other side defend.
Thus in the end the xG may end up at around 1-1, but it ends 2-0.

 

[RUCK4444]

We "comfortably bossed" them and couldn't score a goal without a penalty. That's the problem. It's been a problem for years now and nothings changed. We comfortably bossed Burnley at home in January and lost 2-0.

It's a problem I agree. But it's a singular problem. We've had years of problems on multiple fronts. It's not as if Ole isn't trying to fix that issue, the signing of Sancho I feel is driven partly by this issue, having Pogba and Bruno in the team at the same time will also improve this. But none of this matters because there is a group that will only be happy seeing Ole sacked, that's been clearly demonstrated in the other Ole-Bashing threads.

Easiest thing in the world for a United fan to say is that Ole isn't cut out for the job, it's a throwaway comment that has no comeback.

Personally I hope Ole has the benefit of next season with a fully fit and firing side. I'm confident that the additions of Bruno and Sancho and a fit Pogba will see us challenge and hopefully prove the doubters wrong. I'd bet on that first rather than swapping out the manager again now.

 

[Castia]

No chance it will be that bad. We’ll get top 4 and possibly a cup with a bit of luck.

I thought we did alright against Spurs and the Bruno/Pogba partnership has real potential to take us to another level, I think we will pick up a lot of points before the end of the season.

 

[100]

That we still need loads of improvements at 5 positions in our starting 11 compared to 7 from Jose's time.

We're in a far better position to do that.

Theres a difference between needing x amount of players and having an unhealthy, aging squad full of high wages and what we've got now. Once Sanchez, Rojo and Smalling are off the books then we're in an excellent position.

You can get two Bruno level players in at the expense of Sanchez alone

 

[Nick7]

It's a problem I agree. But it's a singular problem. We've had years of problems on multiple fronts. It's not as if Ole isn't trying to fix that issue, the signing of Sancho I feel is driven partly by this issue, having Pogba and Bruno in the team at the same time will also improve this. But none of this matters because there is a group that will only be happy seeing Ole sacked, that's been clearly demonstrated in the other Ole-Bashing threads.

Easiest thing in the world for a United fan to say is that Ole isn't cut out for the job, it's a throwaway comment that has no comeback.

Personally I hope Ole has the benefit of next season with a fully fit and firing side. I'm confident that the additions of Bruno and Sancho and a fit Pogba will see us challenge and hopefully prove the doubters wrong. I'd bet on that first rather than swapping out the manager again now.

I'll reserve judgement on Pogba and Bruno as a pairing until I see more of them. But great players with no plan isn't a magic fix. I've seen nothing from our play to suggest we're getting any better at breaking teams down. We, and Ole, can't just expect to drop Sancho in and us to turn into a top side. We need better movement up front, we need to be moving the ball quicker through the midfield and attack, and to be less predictable. These are big problems, and thus far it seems Ole has no idea how to fix them with the players we have.

 

[Withnail]

That we still need loads of improvements at 5 positions in our starting 11 compared to 7 from Jose's time.

Ah ha ok - sorry maybe I was being slow.

Long-term maybe but I think it's only really pressing at RW and you're never going to have a team that couldn't do with upgrades.

After the summer I'd expect that number to be down to 3 or even less depending on player development.

Over the next two or three seasons I think we'll see a long-term Matic replacement, possibly a LB but Williams might be the answer, a CB and a striker.

 

[Withnail]

I'll reserve judgement on Pogba and Bruno as a pairing until I see more of them. But great players with no plan isn't a magic fix. I've seen nothing from our play to suggest we're getting any better at breaking teams down. We, and Ole, can't just expect to drop Sancho in and us to turn into a top side. We need better movement up front, we need to be moving the ball quicker through the midfield and attack, and to be less predictable. These are big problems, and thus far it seems Ole has no idea how to fix them with the players we have.

They are starting together tonight along with Rashford, Martial and Greenwood.

Let's hope they impress

 

[Nick7]

They are starting together tonight along with Rashford, Martial and Greenwood.

Let's hope they impress

Hopefully. That’s the side I wanted to see.

 

[Ekeke]

An interesting piece in F365 this morning about how terrible this season has been for us, if it wasn't for the decent run after Fernandes joined who knows what situation we would be in. We need 19 points from our last 24 available just to beat our worst ever Premier League total which was achieved under Moyes. If we don't match that then surely something has to be done?

https://www.football365.com/news/man-utd-and-solskjaer-have-eight-games-to-avoid-disaster

Yep obviously

 

[Withnail]

Hopefully. That’s the side I wanted to see.

Think everyone's in agreement there

 

[Gopher Brown]

So to ensure we don’t have transition seasons, you want to transition the manager? How has that approach worked till now?

Not well, but I say we keep trying until we get there

 

[Gopher Brown]

And if you ignore reality and context you’ll be stuck in the same rinse and repeat stages of performing the transition that would have been easier to just accept is needed in the first place.

I’m honestly sick to death of seeing people will fully ignore the context that tough titties we are not CL guaranteed every season, nor are we entitled to any form of title challenge just because we are United.

It’s a sickening the level of wilful ignorance when you claim resources of which I assume you mean money when in reality all that matters is who is physically on the pitch.

Our average team has been the following:

De Gea
AWB Lindelof Maguire Shaw
McTominay Fred
James Periera Rashford
Martial

We were bereft of creativity due to an injury to Pogba and now we have him and Bruno back you still have whiny individuals pining after an unrealistic expectation. Take the best player out of any side and they struggle. Add quality and they improve. It’s no coincidence that Liverpool have one of the best injury records in the league and look what happened when they lost Salah for a game...

We finally, for the first time in 7 years are one quality winger away from a good team with outstanding elements. Not necessarily a title winning side but something to enjoy and be proud of. Every member of our first XI with someone like Sancho would at least be a good option and a lot of them are great options when fit.

And yet you get people who want it all now. The arrogance and entitlement gives United fans a bad name when I believe the majority are realistic about our season.

It’s not been great because we haven’t had our best available. The fact that we are still in the mix for top3/4, in with a chance of winning the FA cup and Europa league is testament to what a good job he’s done with some bang average players at his disposal. All of his signings have been good or great and yet people would arbitrarily want Ole removed for failing to meet top 4?

Get a grip.

Yes, but if you look at our past title wins, most have been a struggle, we’re always a team in transition. We should never use ‘transition’ an excuse for failure.

 

[Gopher Brown]

Like we did in 1990, 1995, 2002, 2005?

Gopher Brown may not accept transitional seasons, but Alex Ferguson built his success on them (and in them). I know excuses exist, and I know transitions exist, and this season is pretty bloody obviously one marked by real transition.

Yes, and you don’t think the majority of fans thought that wasn’t acceptable to finish second or third. If we’re giving Ole 5 years before any success then it’s going to be a bleak few years.

I can see this team is getting better, but we’re still a fair bit away from the top 4

 

[Zen86]

An interesting piece in F365 this morning about how terrible this season has been for us, if it wasn't for the decent run after Fernandes joined who knows what situation we would be in. We need 19 points from our last 24 available just to beat our worst ever Premier League total which was achieved under Moyes. If we don't match that then surely something has to be done?

https://www.football365.com/news/man-utd-and-solskjaer-have-eight-games-to-avoid-disaster

If it wasn’t for that spell of draws and struggles against weaker teams earlier this season, who knows what situation we would be in.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

Not a bad start tonight eh lads?

 

[RUCK4444]

I'll reserve judgement on Pogba and Bruno as a pairing until I see more of them. But great players with no plan isn't a magic fix. I've seen nothing from our play to suggest we're getting any better at breaking teams down. We, and Ole, can't just expect to drop Sancho in and us to turn into a top side. We need better movement up front, we need to be moving the ball quicker through the midfield and attack, and to be less predictable. These are big problems, and thus far it seems Ole has no idea how to fix them with the players we have.

Yes but you need the players to fix the problem as well.

You can see the passing required to break teams down is there now, the movement in attack has been a bugbear of ours for a very long time, I feel it’s improving. I do agree it needs work, coaching movement is perhaps the most important task for our coaches.

 

[Wumminator]

This has been by far and away the best season post Ferguson for me

 

[Cardboard elk]

Everybody should understand this was to take some time, Ole said as much himself. As long as the squad, play and results improve then it is going well and in the right direction. I think the lads play a lot of great football now. I like what I see and I still believe fully in Ole. But some people demands results yesterday, even when some insight in football and the situation the club was in clearly showed a long overhaul was overdue. There will be CL next season I think, and next season I can see the team ending 1-3 place in the PL. But a couple of quality additions to the squad to make up for injuries and a hard schedule would be nice.

 

[TheRedDevil2019]

Yes, and you don’t think the majority of fans thought that wasn’t acceptable to finish second or third. If we’re giving Ole 5 years before any success then it’s going to be a bleak few years.

I can see this team is getting better, but we’re still a fair bit away from the top 4

Right, because the 5/6 years previous to Ole's appointment weren't depressing, toxic, and just outright embarrassing?. Get a grip, you can't even appreciate how this is the most determined, attacking united side we've had since Sir Alex. Credit to Ole for instilling the ole United culture back at the club. Clearly that's beginning to impact the squad and the atmosphere pre-lockdown at OT had been the best in years.

If you're not prepared to buckle up and embrace the journey Ole is taking us on, then you know where the door is. I see more positives in Ole and far less to moan about now (considering the drivel we all had to tolerate under the likes of Jose, LVG, and Moyesy).

 

[RedPed]

This has been by far and away the best season post Ferguson for me

Exactly. Completely agree. But some people will never be happy. LvG had a bit of a purple patch but the feelgood was not as good as under Ole. I'm very happy with things at the mo. Think we might even nick 4th and win the Europa.

 

[londonredmaniac]

Such a sexy hatrick

 

[SER19]

Has rashford and Martial turning in their most prolific seasons yet. Adding heading and big game performances to martial and rashford has improved immeasurably.