SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Scrumpet

There are no words
Joined
Aug 24, 2010
Messages
24,563
Location
Froggle Rock
We've had one player at your rugby club test postive and a load of guys that went and got tested all came back negative but still have to isolate for 14 days.

Can anyone explain this? If your negative why do you still isolate
In addition to what @Pogue Mahone and @0le said isn't there an indeterminate delay between exposure to the virus and the virus being detectable by a test? The ones who tested negative could test positive tomorrow.
 

antsmithmk

Hates women.
Joined
Feb 11, 2014
Messages
1,608
Can someone explain why there are lots of cases but only a very small number of deaths at the moment? Whereas in the first lockdown there were obviously thousands?
Their is a delay between testing positive, the infection becoming so bad as to need hospitalisation, passing away from the disease, and the death being recorded. From the figures we are seeing, it looks as if we are at the start of that cycle again, probably somewhere like we were back at the middle or end of February.
 

Adamsk7

Full Member
Joined
Aug 17, 2014
Messages
2,708
Can someone explain why there are lots of cases but only a very small number of deaths at the moment? Whereas in the first lockdown there were obviously thousands?
Probably 90% of the people that had it weren’t tested. There was probably upwards of 100,000 infections a day to get to the 900 or so deaths we were having.
 

prateik

Full Member
Joined
Dec 14, 2005
Messages
42,183
Can someone explain why there are lots of cases but only a very small number of deaths at the moment? Whereas in the first lockdown there were obviously thousands?
Not even close to being an expert, but I am guessing the first time around the cases were a lot higher than the numbers showed.. the testing was very limited..

Also, the higher risk people are more aware of the virus right now and more younger people are getting infected..
The hospitals are better prepared.. They understand better how to treat it.
and, I read that deaths can trail cases by 2-8 weeks.. https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/h...s-time-lag-between-covid-19-cases-and-deaths/
Still wont be near 10%+ as it was around March..
 

MTF

Full Member
Joined
Aug 17, 2009
Messages
5,243
Location
New York City
Can someone explain why there are lots of cases but only a very small number of deaths at the moment? Whereas in the first lockdown there were obviously thousands?
Lag effect. People who end up passing away from covid do so several days/weeks after contracting.

But I think the other effect that people aren't adjusting for in their thinking of this overall covid situation: virtually everywhere in the world that saw high deaths be it in in March, April or May, had to have had 10 times or more the number of cases that actually got confirmed/detected. 10,000 cases detected today do not mean the same about the actual level of infection as 10,000 cases detected in April.
 

Baxter

Full Member
Joined
Oct 16, 2010
Messages
11,738
Interesting to see what my work does now. For some reason they were pushing on pulling everyone back to the office. To be fair, they could probably distance everyone but seems such an unnecessary risk and people still have to use the same appliances, door handles etc. We were effectively told that our jobs cannot be done from home (they can), and if we thought they could, then they would find someone else to do the job.

They have said that they are doing everything by the book, but for a company that put out a mail basically suggesting that doing anything in your free time was irresponsible and could impact your colleagues, it’ll be a joke if they push on with this.
 

decorativeed

Full Member
Joined
Oct 19, 2009
Messages
12,389
Location
Tameside
Interesting to see what my work does now. For some reason they were pushing on pulling everyone back to the office. To be fair, they could probably distance everyone but seems such an unnecessary risk and people still have to use the same appliances, door handles etc. We were effectively told that our jobs cannot be done from home (they can), and if we thought they could, then they would find someone else to do the job.

They have said that they are doing everything by the book, but for a company that put out a mail basically suggesting that doing anything in your free time was irresponsible and could impact your colleagues, it’ll be a joke if they push on with this.
I suspect many people are in the same position. My own work started to 'encourage' people to come back into the office last month. They said it is good for mental health (despite people's anxiety about having to get there by public transport) and productivity, but they have no means to measure productivity or lack of it. We also have offices that cannot safely accommodate all staff if they did return to site.
 

Buster15

Go on Didier
Joined
Aug 28, 2018
Messages
13,498
Location
Bristol
Supports
Bristol Rovers
What do you expect when Boris has been encouraging people to go back to the office? Transmission is much more indoors than outside a pub!
Not just back to the office, but using taxpayer money to 'encourage' people back to eating out. All of which has to have had an effect on the rapid increase in covid cases.
 

redshaw

Full Member
Joined
Jul 17, 2015
Messages
9,701
Can someone explain why there are lots of cases but only a very small number of deaths at the moment? Whereas in the first lockdown there were obviously thousands?
Blood tests for covid antibodies show around 5-8% of a country like Spain UK having caught the virus, which is around 3 million+ people over a few months. Testing back then was heavy symptoms and hospital admissions largely for France UK and Spain so only a few hundred thousand were caught. Testing now is more community and vastly increased. We're seeing it spread now in real time through younger people. Back in Jan and Feb it was doing the same thing but to an unsuspecting public with no testing and then limited testing at hospital.

Deaths are increasing in Spain and France where cases have climbed to 10-13k but I doubt deaths will be as high as before although it could just take longer to reach old and vulnerable. Those people will be extra careful still and not in the dark like before but unfortunately the virus will reach some eventually. April was the big time bomb for UK with the virus working its way through the care homes and such in Feb/March. Thing is younger people look after the old.

The virus is still just as deadly

With current testing it could be the 5-6k per day of April would be the equivalent of 15-30k today as so many were missed back then.
 
Last edited:

Dan_F

Full Member
Joined
Dec 17, 2012
Messages
10,406
I suspect many people are in the same position. My own work started to 'encourage' people to come back into the office last month. They said it is good for mental health (despite people's anxiety about having to get there by public transport) and productivity, but they have no means to measure productivity or lack of it. We also have offices that cannot safely accommodate all staff if they did return to site.
It’s mental that companies don’t seem to be able to organise a quick survey to gauge the opinion of their staff before deciding what to do. The obvious solution is to try and get people back who really struggle with the isolation of working from home, while giving those that don’t the option to continue at home.
 

Pogue Mahone

The caf's Camus.
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
133,954
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
It’s mental that companies don’t seem to be able to organise a quick survey to gauge the opinion of their staff before deciding what to do. The obvious solution is to try and get people back who really struggle with the isolation of working from home, while giving those that don’t the option to continue at home.
Isn’t that what most companies are doing? Opening the office up as an option for employees who would like to come in, without any pressure to stop working from home from those who’d rather not. That’s what happened at my place of work. Only 6 out of the 70+ people are going in every day. The rest of us pop in at most once every couple of weeks.
 

Snowjoe

༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ
Staff
Joined
Jan 14, 2013
Messages
30,322
Location
Lake Athabasca
Supports
Cheltenham Town
Isn’t that what most companies are doing? Opening the office up as an option for employees who would like to come in, without any pressure to stop working from home from those who’d rather not. That’s what happened at my place of work. Only 6 out of the 70+ people are going in every day. The rest of us pop in at most once every couple of weeks.
Ours have gone the total opposite direction and are only letting people work from the office who have good reason to. Plan currently is home until January and providing covid is stable enough we will do 1 day in 4 in the office, but I’d surprised if that happens before some sort of vaccine or other control.

I think we’ve taken the opportunity to cut down office space when our lease is up and avoid losing staff pointlessly when they self isolate when they could just work at home.
 

Dan_F

Full Member
Joined
Dec 17, 2012
Messages
10,406
Isn’t that what most companies are doing? Opening the office up as an option for employees who would like to come in, without any pressure to stop working from home from those who’d rather not. That’s what happened at my place of work. Only 6 out of the 70+ people are going in every day. The rest of us pop in at most once every couple of weeks.
I hope so, I was going off what the post a few above mine said about his company forcing people back in. Most companies I work with are being pretty good with it.

I was actually going to spend a day with a client next week, for the first time since March. I have a feeling that’s going to get cancelled.
 

Josep Dowling

Full Member
Joined
Aug 17, 2014
Messages
7,659
If the government were truly serious about stopping the spread.

A unity of rules amongst all the British Isles. It’s stupid we have different rules in each country.

No more travelling abroad for pleasure. Or at least serious quarantining on return. My friend has just moved to China and he was forced to stay in a hotel room for two weeks on arrival, which was monitored by security.

Stricter county rules. Stop people moving from counties with higher COVID unless it’s for work.

Try and make people work from home where possible. Offer incentives, grants for home equipment as an option.

Instead we had these numpties offering half price meals at the busiest time of the year for that section. Then blame people for socialising at these places! Couldn’t make it up.
 

Jazz

Just in case anyone missed it. I don't like Mount.
Joined
Feb 11, 2014
Messages
31,056
Anyone here read the open letter to the PM? It's from Professor Sikora and others like him who are experts in their field. Please do read it. I think the DM has printed it and not sure of others yet. I don't click on the DM for personal reasons but you can find it there to start with or visit Professor Sikora's twitter.
 

Jazz

Just in case anyone missed it. I don't like Mount.
Joined
Feb 11, 2014
Messages
31,056
We've had one player at your rugby club test postive and a load of guys that went and got tested all came back negative but still have to isolate for 14 days.

Can anyone explain this? If your negative why do you still isolate
The government doesn't know what its doing? I am glad to see some eminent scientists coming out and speaking up now. Just consider the government is listening to fecking Imperial College with their flawed models! Research it, they have never been right as far as I could see. Now we've got people from Oxford offering another point of view and I hope people open their minds and consider what they are saying.

I swear the government is on a power trip and not taking balanced decisions.
 

Jacko21

Full Member
Joined
Mar 27, 2016
Messages
4,579
Location
Manchester
Isn’t that what most companies are doing? Opening the office up as an option for employees who would like to come in, without any pressure to stop working from home from those who’d rather not. That’s what happened at my place of work. Only 6 out of the 70+ people are going in every day. The rest of us pop in at most once every couple of weeks.
That's what ours is doing. Office is open purely as an option. Only 4 out of circa 40 employees are actually in on a regular basis - all of whom live within walking distance of the office. And anyone who relies on public transport to get to the office is being encouraged to work from home.
 

Pogue Mahone

The caf's Camus.
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
133,954
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
Anyone here read the open letter to the PM? It's from Professor Sikora and others like him who are experts in their field. Please do read it. I think the DM has printed it and not sure of others yet. I don't click on the DM for personal reasons but you can find it there to start with or visit Professor Sikora's twitter.
I’ve read it. It wasn’t quiet as swivel-eyed as I expected based on the main signatories. Obviously diluted by all the other contributors. Some of it was fairly sensible. We need more clarity about what the goal is and to consider more diverse metrics to decide what success looks like. Which is fine.

Of course, they didn’t actually give any suggestions. It’s much easier to criticise than to come up with any kind of concrete solutions.
 
Last edited:

F-Red

Full Member
Joined
Nov 15, 2008
Messages
10,913
Location
Cheshire
Anyone here read the open letter to the PM? It's from Professor Sikora and others like him who are experts in their field. Please do read it. I think the DM has printed it and not sure of others yet. I don't click on the DM for personal reasons but you can find it there to start with or visit Professor Sikora's twitter.
Didn't think much of it, as it didn't bring anything new to the table. Just said things need to be different, but didn't state what the different was. The end goal all along has been to not overburden the health service, until a vaccine comes along. I don't know why these experts haven't come to that conclusion.
 

Jazz

Just in case anyone missed it. I don't like Mount.
Joined
Feb 11, 2014
Messages
31,056
Didn't think much of it, as it didn't bring anything new to the table. Just said things need to be different, but didn't state what the different was. The end goal all along has been to not overburden the health service, until a vaccine comes along. I don't know why these experts haven't come to that conclusion.
What if there is never an effective vaccine? What then? What do you suggest?

We need to learn to live with it. It's an awful situation to have anyone dying of this virus, but we need to learn to live with it. No society can guarantee 100% that anyone will be safe. That is life. In meantime we make the best of things, but more lockdowns isn't it - especially when most people are healthy. Protect the vulnerable, but I do think we need to carry on with sensible measures.
 

GlasgowRedz

Full Member
Joined
Mar 18, 2014
Messages
405
The government doesn't know what its doing? I am glad to see some eminent scientists coming out and speaking up now. Just consider the government is listening to fecking Imperial College with their flawed models! Research it, they have never been right as far as I could see. Now we've got people from Oxford offering another point of view and I hope people open their minds and consider what they are saying.

I swear the government is on a power trip and not taking balanced decisions.
I'm pretty comfortable in admitting that I absolutely detest the Tories and this particular government.

That being said I can't really agree that they are placing these restrictions for any other reasons than that they think they have no choice.

You can clearly see that if they thought they could get away with just opening everything up again they would. They tried their best for the last few months!

There definitely has to be some sort of end game here, rather than the flip flopping around that we have at the moment.
 

Pogue Mahone

The caf's Camus.
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
133,954
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
What if there is never an effective vaccine? What then? What do you suggest?

We need to learn to live with it. It's an awful situation to have anyone dying of this virus, but we need to learn to live with it. No society can guarantee 100% that anyone will be safe. That is life. In meantime we make the best of things, but more lockdowns isn't it - especially when most people are healthy. Protect the vulnerable, but I do think we need to carry on with sensible measures.
Where did you get the idea we’re not trying to live with the virus? That’s exactly what we’re trying to do. Get life as close to normal as possible, while trying to avoid a scenario where hundreds of thousands of people are killed before their time. How does your version of living with the virus differ from what we’re doing now?

You’re coming across like that letter you referenced. Unhappy with what’s happening but not offering any kind of alternative plan.
 

Jazz

Just in case anyone missed it. I don't like Mount.
Joined
Feb 11, 2014
Messages
31,056
I'm pretty comfortable in admitting that I absolutely detest the Tories and this particular government.

That being said I can't really agree that they are placing these restrictions for any other reasons than that they think they have no choice.

You can clearly see that if they thought they could get away with just opening everything up again they would. They tried their best for the last few months!

There definitely has to be some sort of end game here, rather than the flip flopping around that we have at the moment.
I disagree sadly. I have my thoughts on this but that's for another time, and I don't want people here jumping down my throat.. If you can stand it, read the Coronavirus Act. That may give you an idea of the powers they enjoy under it. Suffice it to say, whatever they decide, it won't affect them or their families - only us ordinary citizens. So they flip flop all they like.

We should hold them more accountable to be honest. Not just blindly accept what their saying. They need to be challenged so they come up with a coherent solution.
 

F-Red

Full Member
Joined
Nov 15, 2008
Messages
10,913
Location
Cheshire
What if there is never an effective vaccine? What then? What do you suggest?
It's an extreme worst case scenario that you're calling there. We will have to learn to live longer with the virus in short. However I think given the brains of the world currently working on this, then there's a good chance of us finding something to in the very least make the virus weaker, if we can't eradicate it.

We need to learn to live with it. It's an awful situation to have anyone dying of this virus, but we need to learn to live with it. No society can guarantee 100% that anyone will be safe. That is life. In meantime we make the best of things, but more lockdowns isn't it - especially when most people are healthy. Protect the vulnerable, but I do think we need to carry on with sensible measures.
We're learning to live with it at the minute. I don't think anyone here has suggested that more lockdowns is the answer, but so far the 'sensible measures' you reference haven't worked.

As I said before, the end goal that these experts are asking for has been clear to the general public from day one. It's all about making sure the hospitals aren't overwhelmed with cases until a vaccine is found, the fact that they discharged 15,000 patients (some knowingly with covid) back into care home settings in March to prepare for the first wave should tell you everything you need to know about the end goal.
 

Jazz

Just in case anyone missed it. I don't like Mount.
Joined
Feb 11, 2014
Messages
31,056
Where did you get the idea we’re not trying to live with the virus? That’s exactly what we’re trying to do. Get life as close to normal as possible, while trying to avoid a scenario where hundreds of thousands of people are killed before their time. How does your version of living with the virus differ from what we’re doing now?

You’re coming across like that letter you referenced. Unhappy with what’s happening but not offering any kind of alternative plan.
Where do you get the idea that hundreds of thousands are going to be killed? Is that a maybe scenario? Which studies have said this for certain?
 

F-Red

Full Member
Joined
Nov 15, 2008
Messages
10,913
Location
Cheshire
We should hold them more accountable to be honest. Not just blindly accept what their saying. They need to be challenged so they come up with a coherent solution.
You need to stop pussyfooting around, what is the solution that we're not currently seeing?
 

Jazz

Just in case anyone missed it. I don't like Mount.
Joined
Feb 11, 2014
Messages
31,056
It's an extreme worst case scenario that you're calling there. We will have to learn to live longer with the virus in short. However I think given the brains of the world currently working on this, then there's a good chance of us finding something to in the very least make the virus weaker, if we can't eradicate it.



We're learning to live with it at the minute. I don't think anyone here has suggested that more lockdowns is the answer, but so far the 'sensible measures' you reference haven't worked.

As I said before, the end goal that these experts are asking for has been clear to the general public from day one. It's all about making sure the hospitals aren't overwhelmed with cases until a vaccine is found, the fact that they discharged 15,000 patients (some knowingly with covid) back into care home settings in March to prepare for the first wave should tell you everything you need to know about the end goal.
The majority of hospitals weren't overwhelmed even at the height of the pandemic. This I know from several people working in healthcare. This I also heard from people who have relatives or friends in the field. The overwhelming complaint was how quiet everything was! I was shocked when I heard those things. And this from actual people, not the media or whomever else.
 

Jazz

Just in case anyone missed it. I don't like Mount.
Joined
Feb 11, 2014
Messages
31,056
You need to stop pussyfooting around, what is the solution that we're not currently seeing?
What's the point of saying anything more? You are set on what you've decided already. Lockdowns and distancing forever until the magical vaccine is produced, never mind we've never had a successful vaccine for any coronaviruses.
 

jojojo

JoJoJoJoJoJoJo
Staff
Joined
Aug 18, 2007
Messages
38,299
Location
Welcome to Manchester reception committee
Where did you get the idea we’re not trying to live with the virus? That’s exactly what we’re trying to do. Get life as close to normal as possible, while trying to avoid a scenario where hundreds of thousands of people are killed before their time. How does your version of living with the virus differ from what we’re doing now?

You’re coming across like that letter you referenced. Unhappy with what’s happening but not offering any kind of alternative plan.
It's not normal though. Going to work, going to school, getting on the bus, going the pub all week, and then being banned from visiting your mum at weekend isn't normal. Telling people they can have strangers do work in the home, but can't have the kids do the same job for free, isn't normal. It's well-intentioned but it's also counter-intuitive which is why consistency, clarity and trust are necessities. In the longer term, I'll also say it's not sustainable - free "care" and routine "picking up the slack" is an essential in an ageing community, and in one that relies on both parents working.

Childcare relies on family. Older family members rely on the younger ones, if not for "care" then for company, DIY, taxi service, computer repairs, and for the kind of big financial and personal legal decisions where another set of eyes and ears or another pair of hands matters.

There are lots of things we can all deal with for a couple of weeks, or even a couple of months. But Manchester has been in "local measures" for the past two months and all that's happened in that people have got more resentful, and more likely to look for loopholes.
 

Pogue Mahone

The caf's Camus.
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
133,954
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
The majority of hospitals weren't overwhelmed even at the height of the pandemic. This I know from several people working in healthcare. This I also heard from people who have relatives or friends in the field. The overwhelming complaint was how quiet everything was! I was shocked when I heard those things. And this from actual people, not the media or whomever else.
You need to talk to people who worked in Intensive Care. They came scarily close to being overwhelmed. In lots of hospitals. At one one point there were concerns about running out of oxygen!

Some parts of hospitals were very quiet but that was only becauselot of routine services were cancelled as the risk of being infected while in hospital was so high at that time. Plus there was a desperate need to create capacity to safely process all the highly infective, very sick people passing through those hospitals. Which wouldn’t have been possible if they were busy running all their usual services.
 
Last edited:

F-Red

Full Member
Joined
Nov 15, 2008
Messages
10,913
Location
Cheshire
The majority of hospitals weren't overwhelmed even at the height of the pandemic. This I know from several people working in healthcare. This I also heard from people who have relatives or friends in the field. The overwhelming complaint was how quiet everything was! I was shocked when I heard those things. And this from actual people, not the media or whomever else.
I don't think we've experience the height, we've not had the pandemic when we've got the usual seasonal pressures in the NHS. My other half works for them and the fact that they weren't overwhelmed, was due to the fact that care in other sectors was completely cancelled. Now in order for those additional services to restart and carry on, it needs to carefully balance the impact of what covid patients will come in. I don't know which healthcare settings the relatives or friends work in, but it wasn't a quiet period, certainly those who manage ICU.

What's the point of saying anything more? You are set on what you've decided already. Lockdowns and distancing forever until the magical vaccine is produced, never mind we've never had a successful vaccine for any coronaviruses.
Well you're saying there's a solution that we're all missing, so I'm all ears. What is it?
 

Pogue Mahone

The caf's Camus.
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
133,954
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
It's not normal though. Going to work, going to school, getting on the bus, going the pub all week, and then being banned from visiting your mum at weekend isn't normal. Telling people they can have strangers do work in the home, but can't have the kids do the same job for free, isn't normal. It's well-intentioned but it's also counter-intuitive which is why consistency, clarity and trust are necessities. In the longer term, I'll also say it's not sustainable - free "care" and routine "picking up the slack" is an essential in an ageing community, and in one that relies on both parents working.

Childcare relies on family. Older family members rely on the younger ones, if not for "care" then for company, DIY, taxi service, computer repairs, and for the kind of big financial and personal legal decisions where another set of eyes and ears or another pair of hands matters.

There are lots of things we can all deal with for a couple of weeks, or even a couple of months. But Manchester has been in "local measures" for the past two months and all that's happened in that people have got more resentful, and more likely to look for loopholes.
It’s not normal. It’s shit. It’s a poor approximation of what we usually call normal, forced on us because of a lethal novel virus in circulation. This is what “living with the virus” looks like and it fecking sucks. We just have to hope it’s temporary. Meanwhile, I don’t think it’s helpful to say “I don’t like this. Why can’t we do something different” without suggesting what something different looks like.

For me, cheap and accurate mass testing will improve life a lot. Daily saliva swabs for half the country or more. That’s an actual solution. Although the technology isn’t there yet, so we have to be patient. A vaccine would be great too. That’s a long way off as well. Meanwhile we’ve no choice but to keep doing what we’re doing. Or slight variations of same.
 

decorativeed

Full Member
Joined
Oct 19, 2009
Messages
12,389
Location
Tameside
It’s mental that companies don’t seem to be able to organise a quick survey to gauge the opinion of their staff before deciding what to do. The obvious solution is to try and get people back who really struggle with the isolation of working from home, while giving those that don’t the option to continue at home.
Mine did, but it didn't seem to make much difference. To be fair, some staff did express a preference to come back to the office, but I know many who didn't - particularly those with kids.
 

jojojo

JoJoJoJoJoJoJo
Staff
Joined
Aug 18, 2007
Messages
38,299
Location
Welcome to Manchester reception committee
For me, cheap and accurate mass testing will improve life a lot. Daily saliva swabs for half the country or more. That’s an actual solution. Although the technology isn’t there yet, so we have to be patient. A vaccine would be great too. That’s a long way off as well. Meanwhile we’ve no choice but to keep doing what we’re doing. Or slight variations of same.
I'm with you there - mass daily testing (even if it isn't of "gold standard" PCR quality) can be a gamechanger and feels closer in technical terms than a safe, proven vaccine, though it isn't getting the investment. The only worry I'd have is that a -ve test might change people's behaviour - a free no social-distancing pass for the night. Still better than no test though.

In terms of non-technical solutions, promoting honesty would be a start. It's horrible but we need to admit that when the students come home at Christmas, they need to quarantine before meeting granny (or even worse, meeting grand-dad) and if they can't do it, they need to be able to admit it and sit at the other end of the room by an open window. People need to start doing the grim calculation that "if I'm going to help them move house next Friday I need to stay away from the pub/gym/doctors etc for the week before."

Meanwhile though, I think the psychological message given by, "You can meet people as long as you're spending money," is making some people look for loopholes in rules rather than look at the reasoning behind the rules.

I'll also throw in an unfair observation. The north/south and rich/poor divides are rather too obvious in the "local lockdown" game - and there's going to be resentment from that. I honestly don't know the way out of this one. If I was in a low rate area, I'd want to keep the baddies out. However, there's a real danger in where we are in England now. People will accept a rule that applies nationally, "we're all in it together", more easily than one that doesn't apply a couple of miles down the road. Action against commercial premises (factories, sports clubs, pubs etc with outbreak) can be specific, and will be well accepted. The other stuff? I think it's not got the kind of mass acceptance that it needs, and that's why the rates have continued to rise despite the local rules - in fact I'd say (based on what I'm being told by family/friends) mask wearing etc has got worse rather than better in those local measures areas. A kind of covid fatigue.
 

Pogue Mahone

The caf's Camus.
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
133,954
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
I'm with you there - mass daily testing (even if it isn't of "gold standard" PCR quality) can be a gamechanger and feels closer in technical terms than a safe, proven vaccine, though it isn't getting the investment. The only worry I'd have is that a -ve test might change people's behaviour - a free no social-distancing pass for the night. Still better than no test though.

In terms of non-technical solutions, promoting honesty would be a start. It's horrible but we need to admit that when the students come home at Christmas, they need to quarantine before meeting granny (or even worse, meeting grand-dad) and if they can't do it, they need to be able to admit it and sit at the other end of the room by an open window. People need to start doing the grim calculation that "if I'm going to help them move house next Friday I need to stay away from the pub/gym/doctors etc for the week before."

Meanwhile though, I think the psychological message given by, "You can meet people as long as you're spending money," is making some people look for loopholes in rules rather than look at the reasoning behind the rules.

I'll also throw in an unfair observation. The north/south and rich/poor divides are rather too obvious in the "local lockdown" game - and there's going to be resentment from that. I honestly don't know the way out of this one. If I was in a low rate area, I'd want to keep the baddies out. However, there's a real danger in where we are in England now. People will accept a rule that applies nationally, "we're all in it together", more easily than one that doesn't apply a couple of miles down the road. Action against commercial premises (factories, sports clubs, pubs etc with outbreak) can be specific, and will be well accepted. The other stuff? I think it's not got the kind of mass acceptance that it needs, and that's why the rates have continued to rise despite the local rules - in fact I'd say (based on what I'm being told by family/friends) mask wearing etc has got worse rather than better in those local measures areas. A kind of covid fatigue.
You make some excellent points (as usual!) There has been - and continues to be - a load of errors and missteps. Some of them predictable. Most of them not so much. I’ve been hugely critical of the approach of the UK government from day one but when you look around the world it’s a complete shit show everywhere. Facing this virus down is a horrible challenge that nobody is getting right. With a few very notable exceptions, mainly around lucky accidents of geography, population density and isolation from the rest of the world. Either that or prior experience of dealing with a novel viral epidemic. Ideally both. Plus the Germans. Those efficient, rule-following Germans....

I guess where I’m going with this is I have no fecking idea how we turn this round. In fact, I don’t think we will. Especially with the mood souring and social media spewing comforting misinformation into every home in the country. Covid fatigue is real. And it will kill a lot of people. A crying shame but we’ve just got to keep our heads down and roll with it.