SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[massi83]

There should be more looking into what Germany is doing as a major European nation compared with France, Spain and UK, we don't hear much about it. I'm reminded how Germany report today they're alarmed by France, a strong ally of theirs.

I tried to raise it in the first wave and proposed they got out in front of the virus with lots of testing. I read anecdotal info on other forums of the odd track and trace happening in Germany, remember it wasn't a big thing then in Europe and it seemed the limited tracing and large testing was key. They had many protests there with tens of thousands and allegedly people flouting the soft lockdown, it did seem the testing got those that had it, they took it seriously while others weren't.

Countries in question are doing more testing now than Germany was then and I would think much more tracing compared to what little Germany was doing in March April, even if not efficient as it could be it should be getting out in front. Germany still low on cases while France and Spain are in the 10-13k, deaths and hospitalizations rising, UK seemingly joining them soon. Cases in Netherlands and Belgium very high for the population. Could it be more to do with Germany just being more disciplined and organized as a society of people, living up to the stereotype, the rest of the busy western euro countries are doing way worse.

Mask wearing was said to be high in Spain and France and the key for east Asian nations yet cases have taken off. It's looking more like the people acting responsibly and remaining cautious is the main thing behind the mask. Japan wear masks too but they have little testing, oldest population, high concentration of people, 120 million. Experts have been waiting for it to explode there and in Hong Kong but it hasn't and you can't point to testing testing testing and super track and trace in Japan.

New York took an absolute pounding with 1600 per million dead. Their infection followed on quickly from western Europe due to travel links of the East coast tip of US and western Europe so it may rise again after western Europe's second wave is in full swing but they've been very low for a long time now like Italy, and are probably being cautious still just in the way it unfolded and how it's viewed, still scarred. Italy has seen a small rise yes but they like New York have been very low for such a long time.

New York City is still highly restricted. For example they haven't allowed indoor dining at all still. They will open next week, I think, but only to 25% capacity.

 

[Paxi]

I can see both sides. Imagine you’re on minimum wage, you’ve been furloughed on 80% pay for six months and you now have to take two weeks of getting £100.

Added to this is the pressure of not turning up to work. A lot of jobs might have the situation where if you don’t turn up, someone else will do the work, or it waits until you’re back. But I’ve had jobs before where if I don’t turn up, the shop doesn’t open for the day. It can be more than just financial pressure.

I think if you’ve got a positive test and you go out to work, that’s really bad. But there will be a lot of people who might have some mild symptoms, but are unable to book a test nearby. They then have to choose whether to stay in or not, and it’s not their fault.

I stayed in whilst waiting to book a test and waiting 24 hours for it but I know another person whom was asymptotic didn’t as he couldn’t really afford to, and because there was little availability on tests he just said -screw it and went to work.

 

[Paxi]

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[Pogue Mahone]

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It’s actually not all that conflicted. The way I see it, if you can afford, you should get out and about spending your money in local businesses as much as possible. Whether that’s coffee shops, restaurants whatever. So long as you do it as safely as possible (i.e. outdoors when you can, indoors for a short time, in small groups).

If we all did this and also stopped the really risky stuff, like heading back to someone’s house in a big group after the pub, then we’d have a good balance between keeping the economy ticking over while reducing viral spread. As they keep saying, this isn’t difficult. Just reduce your contacts. Meet fewer people this week than you were meeting every week last month. Which you can easily do while still being an active member of society.

 

[buchansleftleg]

Briefing under way by scientists with no politicians - i suspect they don't want politicians softening the message - I think they will call for shutdown of non essential things like bars and pubs - but no furlough this time to soften the blow. Government releasing briefs about "boris will consider new legislation if needed" while this briefing is going on makes me suspicious that they want to see how it lands with the public first.

 

[Paxi]

It’s actually not all that conflicted. The way I see it, if you can afford, you should get out and about spending your money in local businesses as much as possible. Whether that’s coffee shops, restaurants whatever. So long as you do it as safely as possible (i.e. outdoors when you can, indoors for a short time, in small groups).

If we all did this and also stopped the really risky stuff, like heading back to someone’s house in a big group after the pub, then we’d have a good balance between keeping the economy ticking over while reducing viral spread. As they keep saying, this isn’t difficult. Just reduce your contacts. Meet fewer people this week than you were meeting every week last month. Which you can easily do while still being an active member of society.

That’s probably wishful thinking. Again, could be that I know a lot of morons but I know a lot of people who exactly do the things you just mentioned. Go out barbecues, meet up in large groups and basically do the exact opposite of what the gov is telling them to do.

People cannot be trusted imo. Yes, there is a minority who do a very good job at protecting themselves and others, but most just don't adhere to the rules, at least not strictly enough anyway.


Again, as I mentioned yesterday, I was walking past a pub in my village and I could hear it hundreds of meters away, it was that loud and when I walked past it, it was packed to the rafters, well the outside area was. That’s been happening since the pubs reopened and now we’re on the cusp of a second wave. It’s now time to shut the shit down whilst we have time.

 

[Paxi]

Briefing under way by scientists with no politicians - i suspect they don't want politicians softening the message - I think they will call for shutdown of non essential things like bars and pubs - but no furlough this time to soften the blow. Government releasing briefs about "boris will consider new legislation if needed" while this briefing is going on makes me suspicious that they want to see how it lands with the public first.

Well they should furlough the staff that are in gig industry and in catering industry that much is clear. Where applicable, work should continue and no furlough obviously.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

That’s probably wishful thinking. Again, could be that I know a lot of morons but I know a lot of people who exactly do the things you just mentioned. Go out barbecues, meet up in large groups and basically do the exact opposite of what the gov is telling them to do.

People cannot be trusted imo. Yes, there is a minority who do a very good job at protecting themselves and others, but most just don't adhere to the rules, at least not strictly enough anyway.


Again, as I mentioned yesterday, I was walking past a pub in my village and I could hear it hundreds of meters away, it was that loud and when I walked past it, it was packed to the rafters, well the outside area was. That’s been happening since the pubs reopened and now we’re on the cusp of a second wave. It’s now time to shut the shit down whilst we have time.

I know. It’s a dreadful fecking pity, it really is. Although I’m conscious that being much older and more anti-social than I once was, I find limiting my contacts very easy. If I was in my 20s again I could see myself cutting out my social life for a few weeks or a few months but I don’t think I could have gone a whole half a year without partying. So I don’t want to be too judgmental. It does mean we’re in trouble though.

 

[2cents]

I know. It’s a dreadful fecking pity, it really is. Although I’m conscious that being much older and more anti-social than I once was, I find limiting my contacts very easy. If I was in my 20s again I could see myself cutting out my social life for a few weeks or a few months but I don’t think I could have gone a whole half a year without partying. So I don’t want to be too judgmental. It does mean we’re in trouble though.

Yeah, the demographics least affected by the virus itself are those who are generally most affected by the measures taken to prevent its spread.

 

[Paxi]

I know. It’s a dreadful fecking pity, it really is. Although I’m conscious that being much older and more anti-social than I once was, I find limiting my contacts very easy. If I was in my 20s again I could see myself cutting out my social life for a few weeks or a few months but I don’t think I could have gone a whole half a year without partying. So I don’t want to be too judgmental. It does mean we’re in trouble though.

I’m exactly the same. It’s easy for me now as I’ve become an introvert. I prefer staying in now and thus I have absolutely no problem following the rules. I wasn’t always like this mind. I do think we’re in trouble too though.

 

[Paxi]

One thing about a demographic who find it the hardest but around where I’m from a group of nurses had a large gathering and subsequently spread COVID which resulted in multiple hospital deaths. If you’ve got health professionals who can’t adhere to the rules then you’re fighting a lost cause. I’m a proponent of giving people as little manoeuvre to feck things as possible. Thus, for me, more stringent lockdown rules should have always been in place.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Yeah, the demographics least affected by the virus itself are those who are generally most affected by the measures taken to prevent its spread.

Exactly. Asking someone in their late teens early 20s to basically kill their usual social life stone dead - indefinitely - is a massive sacrifice. And I don’t think antisocial old gits like me should be sneering at them for finding that sacrifice too much to bear, especially when they have so little to fear, personally, from the virus.

Obviously they put others at risk but I think there’s something about being that age which fundamentally change the way we see risk, to ourselves and to others. Which you can see by the fact we all drive slower as we get older. Driving faster than you need to is an objectively selfish and stupid thing to do - putting yourself and others at risk - but I don’t know anyone who didn’t go through that phase. At least temporarily. Even though we all grow out of it eventually.

 

[NinjaFletch]

I know. It’s a dreadful fecking pity, it really is. Although I’m conscious that being much older and more anti-social than I once was, I find limiting my contacts very easy. If I was in my 20s again I could see myself cutting out my social life for a few weeks or a few months but I don’t think I could have gone a whole half a year without partying. So I don’t want to be too judgmental. It does mean we’re in trouble though.

I don't even think it's the partying, at least that's not what I've seen amongst my age group (although I haven't been young for a while!) Sure it's happening, but I don't know if it's as widespread as people make out, but what I do know is that people are really struggling with loneliness and have massive numbers of social contacts as a result. I had a relationship end because of lockdown (admittedly a relationship that was the impetus for the 'have you ever been in a toxic relationship thread' so I dodged a bullet), and I'm worried that a new one I am in might suffer the same fate.

Everyone I know who is in the next stage of their life (mostly with kids) has found lockdown an absolute breeze and, if anything, an improvement on their lives, everyone who is dating/living alone/living apart from a partner has had genuine struggles with their mental health. Inevitably, those people (me probably included) have been taking advantage of the opportunity to not feel like our lives are on pause and some people inevitably take that too far.

 

[Sparky_Hughes]

I don't even think it's the partying, at least that's not what I've seen amongst my age group (although I haven't been young for a while!) Sure it's happening, but I don't know if it's as widespread as people make out, but what I do know is that people are really struggling with loneliness and have massive numbers of social contacts as a result. I had a relationship end because of lockdown (admittedly a relationship that was the impetus for the 'have you ever been in a toxic relationship thread' so I dodged a bullet), and I'm worried that a new one I am in might suffer the same fate.

Everyone I know who is in the next stage of their life (mostly with kids) has found lockdown an absolute breeze and, if anything, an improvement on their lives, everyone who is dating/living alone/living apart from a partner has had genuine struggles with their mental health. Inevitably, those people (me probably included) have been taking advantage of the opportunity to not feel like our lives are on pause and some people inevitably take that too far.

Same here, and I think there have been a lot of people who have found themselves in the same boat.

 

[Snowjoe]

If schools and workplaces are open I’m sceptical to how much killing people’s social lives is going to help. But equally appreciate you can’t really close schools and workplaces again.

everyday i appreciate how lucky I am to be able to work from my sofa, this must be awful for so many people

 

[Mb194dc]

Has anyone questioned why Sweden even in Stockholm is not seeing any rise in cases whilst the rest of Europe is?

Since cased peaked in late June there they have stayed down as have deaths, they're not wearing masks generally or trying suppression at all to any significant extent. Did they already get the virus to burn out naturally by simply doing very little?

 

[Dancfc]

That’s probably wishful thinking. Again, could be that I know a lot of morons but I know a lot of people who exactly do the things you just mentioned. Go out barbecues, meet up in large groups and basically do the exact opposite of what the gov is telling them to do.

People cannot be trusted imo. Yes, there is a minority who do a very good job at protecting themselves and others, but most just don't adhere to the rules, at least not strictly enough anyway.


Again, as I mentioned yesterday, I was walking past a pub in my village and I could hear it hundreds of meters away, it was that loud and when I walked past it, it was packed to the rafters, well the outside area was. That’s been happening since the pubs reopened and now we’re on the cusp of a second wave. It’s now time to shut the shit down whilst we have time.

The issue is in my opinion people want to live the best they can before a potential return to isolation.

I've been semi guilty of that myself, I've stuck to appropriate precautions (washed hands, avoided hugely crowded places, stayed clear of elderly/vulnerable) but I've tried to enjoy every second of this summer knowing it's the most 'free' we will be for quite some time.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

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Looks like shit is about to start getting real in Sweden. Took longer than the rest of Europe but my guess is that this was down to their tradition of mass emigration from cities to wide open spaces in the countryside every August. Which was only ever going to be a temporary relief.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Has anyone questioned why Sweden even in Stockholm is not seeing any rise in cases whilst the rest of Europe is?

Since cased peaked in late June there they have stayed down as have deaths, they're not wearing masks generally or trying suppression at all to any significant extent. Did they already get the virus to burn out naturally by simply doing very little?

See above.

 

[horsechoker]

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Looks like shit is about to start getting real in Sweden. Took longer than the rest of Europe but my guess is that this was down to their tradition of mass emigration from cities to wide open spaces in the countryside every August. Which was only ever going to be a temporary relief.

Regulus Arcturus Black on his way to this thread like

 

[Paxi]

Covid-19: UK faces 50,000 cases a day by October without action - Vallance

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54234084

Edit: could someone teach me how to make that headline into a link. I seen some posters do it, I’ve no idea how.

 

[Tucholsky]

Regulus Arcturus Black on his way to this thread like

@Regulus Arcturus Black

I'm in a midday lull at work, so I am ready ;-)

 

[Mb194dc]

See above.

Will be watching the case numbers and deaths with interest. From what I can see on the Sweden Covid 19 wiki page deaths are not moving for the last 8 days and infections barely rising either.

If immunity is short lived then a higher R rate might actually be a good thing, not a bad one.

 

[Paxi]

Regulus Arcturus Black on his way to this thread like

 

[Mickeza]

Will be watching the case numbers and deaths with interest. From what I can see on the Sweden Covid 19 wiki page deaths are not moving for the last 8 days and infections barely rising either.

If immunity is short lived then a higher R rate might actually be a good thing, not a bad one.

So I’ve read this sentence a number of times and I’m still super confused by it. What am I missing?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Will be watching the case numbers and deaths with interest. From what I can see on the Sweden Covid 19 wiki page deaths are not moving for the last 8 days and infections barely rising either.

If immunity is short lived then a higher R rate might actually be a good thing, not a bad one.

Deaths and hospitalisation won’t change for weeks even if cases increase massively over the next few days. But they will increase eventually. It’s the exact same pattern everywhere.

A higher R rate is never a good thing. Under any circumstances.

 

[Smores]

It was always going to happen because rather than returning slightly to normality it's been lockdown or fully open. Why couldn't schools, businesses, offices reopen part time?

If we end up in full lock down again it'll be a massive failure of government because this was preventable.

 

[Paxi]

It was always going to happen because rather than returning slightly to normality it's been lockdown or fully open. Why couldn't schools, businesses, offices reopen part time?

If we end up in full lock down again it'll be a massive failure of government because this was preventable.

Well the narrative Boris is pushing is that it wasn’t.

 

[Damien]

Covid-19: UK faces 50,000 cases a day by October without action - Vallance

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54234084

Edit: could someone teach me how to make that headline into a link. I seen some posters do it, I’ve no idea how.

Twitterati now calling for Vallance and Whitty to be sacked (most with #KBF hashtags in their display name along with balloons).

 

[Mb194dc]

So I’ve read this sentence a number of times and I’m still super confused by it. What am I missing?

Need infections to bolster immunity in the rest of the population before they lose it, like a vaccine booster shot. Higher R rate means it will burn out quicker again as the virus only has very small amount of non sterilised hosts left to infect.

This is probably why infections suddenly plummeted from late June without Sweden doing anything. What other explanation can there be for that?

For a virus that the human body only holds immunity to for 3 months or so, suppression without total elimination is the worst possible strategy. Simply resetting the pandemic to square one as soon as you lift restrictions. You either have to totally eliminate it (globally so it can't be reseeded endlessly, probably impossible now?) or let her rip like Sweden has done and let it burn out. Vaccination will also inevitably fail because even if you have a safe vaccine, it'll need to boosted indefinitely to stay effective.

 

[jymufc20]

Regulus Arcturus Black on his way to this thread like

 

[Dr. StrangeHate]

Regulus Arcturus Black on his way to this thread like

There is an urban legend around these parts: if you type the name Sweden three times, Regulus Arcturus Black will appear closely behind.

 

[Stactix]

First confirmed cases at a secondary school in our MAT, was helping the CEO when she mentioned it. The Best bit... confirmation was on Thursday, School only found out today, good job parents.

 

[Paxi]

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[Mickeza]

Need infections to bolster immunity in the rest of the population before they lose it, like a vaccine booster shot. Higher R rate means it will burn out quicker again as the virus only has very small amount of non sterilised hosts left to infect.

This is probably why infections suddenly plummeted from late June without Sweden doing anything. What other explanation can there be for that?

For a virus that the human body only holds immunity to for 3 months or so, suppression without total elimination is the worst possible strategy. Simply resetting the pandemic to square one as soon as you lift restrictions. You either have to totally eliminate it (globally so it can't be reseeded endlessly, probably impossible now?) or let her rip like Sweden has done and let it burn out. Vaccination will also inevitably fail because even if you have a safe vaccine, it'll need to boosted indefinitely to stay effective.

So you believe immunity is short lived and your solution is to infect 70% of Stockholm and get to herd immunity as fast as possible. And then do it all again when that immunity wears off three months down the line? It’s certainly a different take on the situation, I’ll give you that.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Need infections to bolster immunity in the rest of the population before they lose it, like a vaccine booster shot. Higher R rate means it will burn out quicker again as the virus only has very small amount of non sterilised hosts left to infect.

This is probably why infections suddenly plummeted from late June without Sweden doing anything. What other explanation can there be for that?

For a virus that the human body only holds immunity to for 3 months or so, suppression without total elimination is the worst possible strategy. Simply resetting the pandemic to square one as soon as you lift restrictions. You either have to totally eliminate it (globally so it can't be reseeded endlessly, probably impossible now?) or let her rip like Sweden has done and let it burn out. Vaccination will also inevitably fail because even if you have a safe vaccine, it'll need to boosted indefinitely to stay effective.

Just like loads of other, very effective, vaccines then.

 

[Wibble]

So you believe immunity is short lived and your solution is to infect 70% of Stockholm and get to herd immunity as fast as possible. And then do it all again when that immunity wears off three months down the line? It’s certainly a different take on the situation, I’ll give you that.

Some studies are suggesting antibodies are detectable for 3+ months and another Icelandic study found antibodies hadn't declined after at least 4 months.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2026116

Given the low rate of mutation, SARS immunity lasting a long time and hopefully t-cell memory existing well after antibodies are no longer detectable, I think we can be increasingly hopeful that a successful vaccine won't need more than annual application, and maybe far less often.

Lets just hope we have a vaccine and can then roll it out rapidly before too long.

 

[Berbaclass]

Regulus Arcturus Black on his way to this thread like

 

[decorativeed]

Twitterati now calling for Vallance and Whitty to be sacked (most with #KBF hashtags in their display name along with balloons).

What's this now?

 

[Berbaclass]

I think the people who didn’t care before will still not care now unfortunately.