A little positivity with respect to immunity.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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I really hope governments are going to get these manufactured in huge quantities. While it is possible that a handful f countries that have very low or no infections will be able to mass vaccinate to reach or get very close to HIT most of the world is now at a point where a vaccine and multiple other approaches are required to get things quickly on the rod to (more) normal. With Remdesivir not reducing mortality we really need a treatment as well as a vaccine and Peter Doherty thinks is is doable with costs reducing with production on scale - likened to making and album and distributing it digitally - high initial cost but unit cost vastly reducing the more copies you make.
We just need to hope that the powers that been see the need and act quickly.
I just don’t see how monoclonal antibodies can be much use. Certainly not remdesevir anyway. You need to give an infusion of several grams into a vein. And this is to stop mild cases from becoming severe. Considering how only a tiny % of mild cases will ever become severe the health economics will never add up. Not unless you’re treating the POTUS anyway.
Gotta love your dogged insistence that “a hanfdful of countries that have very low or no infections will be able to mass vaccinate to reach or get very close to HIT” For a man that’s always had such a low opinion of faith based belief systems you’ve done a hell of a job creating and adhering to one of your very own!
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Newest data from the South Carolina Dept of Health.
Parents are putting pressure on school districts to go back 5 days per week at full capacity right now.
Parents are putting pressure on school districts to go back 5 days per week at full capacity right now.
Agreed, any deterioration-preventing-prophylactic who's mode of administration is intravenous is an instant non-starterI just don’t see how monoclonal antibodies can be much use. Certainly not remdesevir anyway. You need to give an infusion of several grams into a vein. And this is to stop mild cases from becoming severe. Considering how only a tiny % of mild cases will ever become severe the health economics will never add up. Not unless you’re treating the POTUS anyway.
Gotta love your dogged insistence that “a hanfdful of countries that have very low or no infections will be able to mass vaccinate to reach or get very close to HIT” For a man that’s always had such a low opinion of faith based belief systems you’ve done a hell of a job creating and adhering to one of your very own!
Intramuscular or a subcut would be a maybe.
Was reading more about the results here - https://investor.regeneron.com/news...9-outpatient-trial-prospectively-demonstrates
Some of the findings are statistically significant but my god it just seems so clinically far away from anything feasible or relevant
Nothing to do with faith. The Australian plan is to mass vaccinate before opening international borders (barring bubble countries like NZ). We have started manufacturing the Oxford vaccine and have one of our own which will hopefully ready by mid 2021 and is planned to be manufactures in huge quantities - 100 million doses apparently. In our case monoclonal antibodies would be to deal with outbreaks as we open up although using it as a prophylactic would be much harder. In worse hit countries I think they could play an important role in reducing the severity of symptoms of severe cases which would potentially prevent the health system collapsing. No one thing will be the solution so I think we need to use all approaches that work. Oh and I missed a "potentially" out of that quoted sentence.I just don’t see how monoclonal antibodies can be much use. Certainly not remdesevir anyway. You need to give an infusion of several grams into a vein. And this is to stop mild cases from becoming severe. Considering how only a tiny % of mild cases will ever become severe the health economics will never add up. Not unless you’re treating the POTUS anyway.
Gotta love your dogged insistence that “a hanfdful of countries that have very low or no infections will be able to mass vaccinate to reach or get very close to HIT” For a man that’s always had such a low opinion of faith based belief systems you’ve done a hell of a job creating and adhering to one of your very own!
In Australia my main concern is that the Federal government have so far been forced to not act like the evil clowns they are by the states - once we get a vaccine they will be champing at the bit to open up too quickly.
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I'd really like to know how people are catching the virus still, i'm blown away.
Theres a guy in this thread whos whole family have it. I mean, wtf
Theres a guy in this thread whos whole family have it. I mean, wtf
I've always been of this opinion that the prospects of long term immunity are quite good. Plus, I think the importance of antibodies in the immune response as predictors for future infections are overstated.
It is widely accepted that memory cells are a key indicator of immunity. I like that he said that antibodies are a sign of the immune system failure, which is true because it means that the cellular arm has failed to eradicate the virus before it can infect numerous cells so it is up to the antibodies to slow the ability of the virus to infect cells. The REACT study seems to back this conclusion as the biggest drop in antibodies is seen in asymptomatic patients, which implies that a different part of the immune system has dealt with the virus.
Simply explained as well why the first SARS was so much easier to contain than this one and how cross immunity gives great hope to there being long lasting immunity overall to this virus. 100% of the T-cells from SARS could recognise the current SARS and respond to it! I'm not just optimistic anymore, I'm certain of immunity.
All it takes is someone having to go out to work and bringing it back
I know of someone in Dublin who house shares with a guy with some health issues which includes MS. The latter guy has tested positive. As part of the survey thing he asked the person from the HSE what should he do, does he need a test?
He was told no. Go to work as normal.
he shares a house with the guy who is positive and kinda minds him a bit, shares the bathroom and kitchen etc. How can he not get it?
Yet he’s told to go back to work. No wonder it’s still spreading
He was told no. Go to work as normal.
he shares a house with the guy who is positive and kinda minds him a bit, shares the bathroom and kitchen etc. How can he not get it?
Yet he’s told to go back to work. No wonder it’s still spreading
Here’s what’s happening in the batshit, Aryan, thumper, NW US state of Idaho right now...
Imagine being the second most powerful person in a state & aggressively stating with stupidity that the pandemic is a hoax after dealing with it for seven months? Imagine being so aggressively ignorant that you believe it?
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Imagine being the second most powerful person in a state & aggressively stating with stupidity that the pandemic is a hoax after dealing with it for seven months? Imagine being so aggressively ignorant that you believe it?
By believing elected officials like the ones I referenced in the post immediately above this one. This is just an idiot who happens to be second in command in one state in my country saying this, I am certain there are tens of thousands of politicians like her around the world today who have said / are saying the same thing.
Immunity once recoverred from infection or immunity from vaccines etc?
This nicely sums up what we now know about the different stages of COVID-19 disease. Information that we did not have 6 months ago and is now informing better treatment. This will soon be published as a preprint.
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That is brilliant. Thanks for sharing.
Eat out to help out. Genius.
Research suggests that between 8% and 17% of newly detected infection clusters can be linked to the scheme
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...d-second-wave-of-covid-19-study-says-12118285
Research suggests that between 8% and 17% of newly detected infection clusters can be linked to the scheme
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...d-second-wave-of-covid-19-study-says-12118285
Clearly the real reason they are so apprehensive about giving starving kids free school meals.
It's a very effective spreader. I know somebody in Switzerland who went to a dinner with 12 people (perfectly legal) and 3 of them caught it, including my friend. Maybe from one of the group, maybe from somebody else there. Either way, infecting 25% in the space of an hour or two is pretty efficient. Of course it's going to spread around everybody in a household.
Which would also cost 50x less and support parents following various tiers of restrictions.
Ah yes but what will ensuring that children are well fed therefore able to concentrate on their studies therefore able to improve their academic performance therefore have the chance to fulfil their potential and contribute positively to society do for the economy?
Staggeringly shocking that this couldn’t have been foreseen.
Who cares. These MPs wont be in government by then.
Aye, it’s also the wrong kind of people to be contributing positively to society.
It does seem mental with hindsight but life felt very different in the summer. Loads of people - including yours truly - had started to convince themselves that a large nationwide second wave was easily avoided with intermittent local measures only. So in that context it’s kind of understandable that the government would look for a way to kick-start a paralysed economy. Obviously, we were all in denial. We know that now. But sunshine fuelled optimism is a hell of a drug.
Theres been more than a couple of posters in this thread saying how they are struggling and mentioning some of the horrible things they are going through, just wanted to take a moment to say that I think about each one of you every day. Even though we have never actually met, the caf has been a constant in my life for a long time through good and bad times, and I think of you all as mates, we sometimes disagree, we sometimes fall out, but at the end of the day we are all human beings, and I'd say generally decent ones at that. Theres not really anything I can do to help, (if there IS then let me know!) But I'm here if anyone needs to vent, or just chat shit. Stay lucky all xx
The kids are on the "eat nowt to help out" scheme.
All of them on the dole living in government provided houses too I'd bet.
PC out the window they should be rounded up and sent to a fecking work camp for 2 years
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Crazy scenes in Paris apparently, yesterday before their lockdown started. Wouldn't wanna be there either for the entirety of it to be honest.
Belgium deciding this afternoon which new measures will be put into place, but it's almost certainly looking like it's gonna be a new lockdown for 4 to 8 weeks. Can't see anything opening up before Christmas and even that will be a tricky timeline. Our government can go to hell for how long they've let this gone on before interfering. Bunch of incapable cnuts.
I still go to the office some days. My mrs is a nurse and has covid patients, we dont have it. The basic rules seemed to work during lockdown and now the cases are worse than ever. It must be coming from house visits surely.
Flunk out to help out?
At the time there were plenty of critics. Including myself. The government are privy to daily scientific updates from sage, I'm sure they were not on board with this scheme either.
We don’t know what they all work as, or any details of their routine. They might just be unlucky. I don’t think we should assume that everyone is breaking quarantine rules
You were a critic of that policy because you are a critic of almost every government policy, almost by default. That's the easiest position to take in a scenario like this. Almost everything happening right now is bad, and the people in charge of this bad scenario are people you hate, so it's very easy to blame all of those bad things on those bad people. The facts have to be incredibly inconvenient for you to assume anything else. Take for example this idea, that anyone pointing out flaws in the contact tracing system is making a deeply illogical point...
Yet here we have an independent expert, someone who has no vested interest in the UK's handling of the subject and someone who is currently involved in the processes being discussed in a country who knows how to handle these things, saying exactly what you deem to be beyond logic.
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The test&trace system is not built to process thousands of new coronavirus cases per day, so when you get to that level, it will fail. That's not a failure of government execution it's a limitation of the system, with the resources typically applied to it in normal countries with different governments. The government's failure was in letting it get to that point.
You couldn't even engage with the premise of that because you interpreted it through the lens of "this is a bad situation, the government are bad, ergo the government are responsible for this bad situation and anyone disagreeing is clearly an idiot or a defender of the government". The reality we're living in is much more complex than anyone would like it to be, and your consistent approach to dealing with all problems is more convenient but not better. It just allows you to come back to the things that went wrong and say "see, told you so" while never having to do the opposite, largely because most of the things have gone wrong, even in countries that don't have these people in charge.
Firstly, I am a critic of BAD government policy, yes. For example, you will find my praise of the government's inital 80% furlough scheme if you care to trawl through past posts. So don't start off with an incorrect premise.
Eat out to help out during a global pandemic was so obviously a terrible idea, you needed your head in cloud cuckoo land to have not realised at the time. Again, I posted about this at the time, as you will find in my past posts.
As for test and trace, the government has outsourced this to a private company for £12 billion with no penalty clauses in the contract for missing targets, with a leader who has a proven track record of incompetent head (Dido Harding), who also happens to be married to a government MP and has many links with the current government. For context, this £12 billion given to friends of the government is more than the £7bn we spend on the NHS annually.
For this reason, test and trace was a clusterfeck in the UK from day 1, before the cases even rose to unmanageable levels. In fact, because it was never fit for purpose, it has undoubtably contributed to our high numbers now.
The Governments failure was in not having it up and running when lockdown ended and therefore missing the chance to have it working effectively.
Assumptions is all we have unfortunately. It could be the amount of testing being done today, i dont know. but it's hard to understand that the rules which brought daily cases to zero now dont seem to work. When i read stories of police breaking up parties of 300+ people all over the country i can only assume that this sort of behavior does not help the cause. Busses are empty, trains are empty, pubs and restaurants are shut and offices are empty. it seems almost impossible to catch.
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I did say "almost", for that reason. By your definition, almost all of the government's policies have been bad. I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with that collective assessment, I'm just pointing out how convenient that is in a situation where almost all government policies have led to bad outcomes, even from governments you are much closer to ideologically.
I agree with the assessment of the flaws in the test and trace system. I agreed with them at the time. It doesn't change the fact that the limitations on test and trace that I pointed out, and you dismissed, are very real. There is no way that a test and trace system could possibly deal well with 1,000+ cases per day. That's what the expert said, just days after I did, and I only said it at the time because a whole host of experts not only said it, but provided evidence for it. Yet there you were classifying that view as something beyond logic. Do you agree with this expert opinion, on reflection? Or at least that he came to a logical assessment, even if you disagree with it?
That was one of their many failures, undoubtedly. I think we have good reason to question the importance of that particular failure given the experience of e.g. Czech Republic, who had it up and running earlier, but cases started to rise rapidly because of things that had nothing to do with contact tracing, and when it did, their contact tracing system didn't work very well. It's a tool that helps, but there are much more influential tools that the government didn't use or misused that played a much larger role in where we are now.
I’m not sure how using an explanation of the limitations of the existing test and trace system which was designed for meningitis is a good excuse for why a purpose built test and trace system which was allocated £12bn in funds to be developed for a virus which at D&D day zero was already recording thousands of new cases per day.
If it was already known this system wouldn't cope with the numbers and would be effectively useless then why on earth did they allocate £12bn for it?