2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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Drifter

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It's The Progressives Dummy

What a great weekend. I found out, from the Times and the Post, and here on the Kos, that the reason the Democratic Party didn’t do as well as the polls said they were going to, was the progressives.

Polls

I’m starting here because this is the base of a great deal of angst. How could the polls be so wrong? They weren’t. Whoops! Well, they weren’t universally wrong. See, some of them were right. You know which ones. The conservative polls. Yeah, those guys we were told were lying and biased, they were closer to the truth. Why would that be? Maybe they lied and got lucky? It is much more likely that what folks said to one set of pollsters was different than what folks said to another set of pollsters. But what gets left out of this whole conversation is, why did folks vote so widely for Trump, polls or no polls? If your answer is the progressives, really? This reminds me a lot of, “It was the Bernie fans who cost Hillary the election.” One million Sanders voters switched over and voted for Trump, eight and a half million Democrats did. While the Sanders story makes good reading, it misses out on a large narrative, what happened to move that many Democrats to vote for Trump?

Blaming progressives for the outcome in 2020 is of the same vein. It is a lot easier story to write than, “Why in the world would so many rational folks vote for Trump when given the option of voting for a nice guy like Biden?”

Speaking of polls, if you look at the poll numbers you will see that a majority of Americans support the issues that progressives like AOC, Sanders and Warren argue for. Note, the linked poll isn’t even that great of a poll, if you look at wider ranging ones you get huge support for some very progressive ideas. If you dig deeper, you will see that the Democratic base supports those issues at an amazingly high level and that even conservatives support them at rates above 50%. Hmmm, yet somehow it’s the progressives who are at fault. As for the voices here writing, those progressives need to get out because they aren’t in step with the party, if the party is defined by its base and what its base wants, it’s leadership who is out of step. You can throw in the MSM. Oh, I know, the Kos isn’t influenced by the MSM, but all of these ideas that it’s the fault of progressives appeared there before I saw them here and I can’t help but drawing some conclusions.

Progressive vs Centrist

In the last three presidential elections we’ve had one candidate run on a very progressive platform, Barack Obama, one run on a center right platform, Hillary Clinton, and one run on a center platform with influence from the left, Joe Biden. Actually, Biden’s platform during the primaries was, I’m a functioning adult. Who knew the Any Functioning Adult signs, were serious?

Barack Obama killed, no really. He got a real mandate, 60 Senate seats, the House and all he wanted to do. So what did he do? He bailed out the criminal banks with our money, gave them a get out of jail card, he continued the wars in the Middle East, and he gave us the ACA. Yes, he became a centrist overnight.

The selling of the ACA is a tragedy. It has two parts, a private insurance debacle, and an expansion of eligibility of Medicaid. The private insurance marketplace, combined with a law that forced everyone to buy in, was hugely unpopular. And the plans there were unpopular too. So much so that when Trump removed the law forcing compliance, the private plans immediately fell and are still falling.

The expansion of Medicaid, that socialist monstrosity, is popular as hell! It’s still growing. Gee, I wonder why the progressives are still pushing Medicare for all? Must be because they don’t get it?

The cost of Obama’s swing to the right? He got blindsided in 2010. Remember that year? It’s when the GOP took over the country and rewrote districts.

Clinton was the definition of a center right candidate. And she made her positions clear. We might have to curtail social security, and other wonderful right wing positions. No one was surprised by this. Bill was a DINO. Most of the policies he pursued and accomplished were right out of the GOP playbook. Go and look, I’m not posting the links yet again. The end result, she got hammered by a wack-a-noodle racist who was also sexist. If you think this is all about pigs supporting Trump, I remind you, a lot of those pigs voted for Obama. Something doesn’t quite fit, even if the story is convenient.

Then, 2018 happened and a whole slew of very progressive candidates ran, and they won, some in fairly conservative areas. How can that be? And while the GOP held their Senate seats, in a year when they should have won even more, it looked pretty bad. Somehow, the progressive message didn’t hurt us in 2018 and it seemed to help quite a bit.

That brings us to Joe, a nice guy if ever I met one. Joe, like Hillary, was the party chosen. He was so chosen that he didn’t even put together a platform for the primaries. And he was losing up until the party lit its hair on fire and get their mainstays in the media to do the same. When Warren went up, they went after her, and when Sanders went up, they went after him. No one in the party or the MSM ever went after Biden, ever. He was the nice guy.

Joe is a centrist, he always has been. And when Joe got the nomination, he did two things, he went and talked with Sanders, and he chose a semi-progressive running mate. Why? No really, why? If the numbers show you that being centrist is best, and that will give you the win over Trump, why embrace those positions in any way? The reason, because the numbers are as clear to them as they are to me. Obama won on a progressive platform and the base polls progressive, overwhelmingly. Biden may be old, but his managers aren’t stupid.

Now, after the election, the piss poor outcome, and it was piss poor, he should have won 40 states against a thug, they need a scapegoat. You can’t say, we nominated a lack-luster candidate. You can’t blame Harris, you’ll offend pretty much everyone and it’s a bad place to start, I know, it’s the progressives, the’ll buy that. No, it’s not.

In 2020, the four most progressive members of the house, the squad, all won their elections. Nicely. The DNC had gone after them. Pelosi took it to AOC personally, the MSM, and the party labeled one of them as an anti-semite. Yet they won. It gets better, a number of very progressive policies passed, some in conservative regions. That would be because both liberals and conservatives like those policies, duh.

So why did the party do so poorly? Well, they put forth a bunch of centrist conservative candidates in Southern states, and none of them won. They put forward a lackluster candidate who ran on the, I’m a polite, functioning adult, and you should vote for me, platform. So, it must be the progressives?

It never occurs to folks to consider the following. Biden might have lost. If he hadn’t met with Sanders and taken on Harris, Trump might have beat him. What does that say about how a large chunk of Americans view the way our government works? What does it say that a huge chunk of young folks look at the way the Democratic Party works and are deeply dissatisfied? What does it say that the one thing that always gets done in Washington is that the rich and powerful get what they want? Maybe the problem isn't the progressives, maybe something else is wrong?
 

sport2793

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Under 10k if patterns of the past 2 days holds.

He only needs to win by 200 though. Recount can only be done in AZ with difference of <200.

Picture will become clearer when Maricopa dumps a chunk in 2 hours.
I think an interesting analysis of the AZ election would be to explain why Mark Kelly won by a wider margin than Biden. Basically, you had Trump voters who voted for Mark Kelly.

I can understand the Biden-McSally voters as center-right voters who wanted to get rid of Trump while splitting the ticket to promote a Republican controlled senate as a check. Trump-Kelly voters, the only thing I can imagine driving their decision is that these voters are misogynistic and don't think McSally, as a female, is seen as a competent candidate to these folks relative to an ex-military and ex-astronaut male like Kelly. I say this because the main dissatisfaction with McSally came from her support for ending pre-existing conditions and bowing down to Trump, yet I would imagine Trump voters wouldn't put much stock into the former as Trump is leading the charge against pre-existing conditions.

Another, maybe likelier, explanation is that more people voted in the Senate race than in the Presidential race, maybe folks who didn't like either presidential candidate but liked Kelly. This is supported by Kelly currently having more raw votes than Biden.
 

RedPed

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Why is he sending all of his cronies to do the press conferences. Is he going to bunker up until Jan 21st?
 

InfiniteBoredom

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@sport2793 I think she’s just really disliked in the state, similar to Martha Coakley who Dem put up to run for Senate and Gov in MA, only to lose them both.

You see that sometimes still even in this climate. Sherrod Brown won re election easily in 2018 while the rest of Ohio was a massacre, Roy Cooper won NC handily when Biden and Cunningham lost.
 

WI_Red

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@sport2793 I think she’s just really disliked in the state, similar to Martha Coakley who Dem put up to run for Senate and Gov in MA, only to lose them both.

You see that sometimes still even in this climate. Sherrod Brown won re election easily in 2018 while the rest of Ohio was a massacre, Roy Cooper won NC handily when Biden and Cunningham lost.
Also don't forget that he is married to Gabby Gifford.
 

utdalltheway

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It'd be too funny if they found a lot of voter fraud, but it was on the GOP side and it happened to change some red states to Biden.
 

GlastonSpur

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:lol:

He's not stopping there...





Waaaaaaaaah! Somebody call a waaaaaambulance!
In the space of two linked tweets he he contradicts himself.

First he says that the FDA approved the vaccine in record quick time due to his leadership. Then he says that FDA didn't want him to get the vaccine win prior to the election.

His mind is becoming more garbled by the day. And he still seems to think that he's running an election campaign, despite it all having finished last week.
 

Foxbatt

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The repubs will dump him once the Georgia senate race is over. He doesn't know when he is being taken for a ride by Mitch McConnell.
 

Raoul

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The repubs will dump him once the Georgia senate race is over. He doesn't know when he is being taken for a ride by Mitch McConnell.
The real question is will Trump support the GA Senate runoffs if he himself has nothing to gain from it as he leaves office.
 

owlo

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I think an interesting analysis of the AZ election would be to explain why Mark Kelly won by a wider margin than Biden. Basically, you had Trump voters who voted for Mark Kelly.

I can understand the Biden-McSally voters as center-right voters who wanted to get rid of Trump while splitting the ticket to promote a Republican controlled senate as a check. Trump-Kelly voters, the only thing I can imagine driving their decision is that these voters are misogynistic and don't think McSally, as a female, is seen as a competent candidate to these folks relative to an ex-military and ex-astronaut male like Kelly. I say this because the main dissatisfaction with McSally came from her support for ending pre-existing conditions and bowing down to Trump, yet I would imagine Trump voters wouldn't put much stock into the former as Trump is leading the charge against pre-existing conditions.

Another, maybe likelier, explanation is that more people voted in the Senate race than in the Presidential race, maybe folks who didn't like either presidential candidate but liked Kelly. This is supported by Kelly currently having more raw votes than Biden.
I think it was a dumb as pigshit idea for the GOP to even put McSally in that position. It's been clear for ages that voters just don't like her, and she should just stop running for things.
 

owlo

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The real question is will Trump support the GA Senate runoffs if he himself has nothing to gain from it as he leaves office.
I can see him running for 2024..... (just to protect himself if nothing else)
 

sport2793

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I think it was a dumb as pigshit idea for the GOP to even put McSally in that position. It's been clear for ages that voters just don't like her, and she should just stop running for things.
Well it was either her or someone like Kelli Ward who is batshit crazy even by GOP standards.
 

Ubik

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Why doesn't he just do the world a favor and switch parties?
He's the worst Democrat, but he's still better than the best Republican. Low bar, admittedly.
 

MuFc_1992

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The problem is that he's the only Democrat that can win in WV, so the likes of Schumer will have no choice but to let him do whatever he wants.
Exactly, You need to get small victories in states like WV and shouldn't be actively relying on those seats to pass any meaningful legislation. If Republicans don't pass any stimulus by the Georgia runoffs then Dems should run on that message alone and Manchin's comments on court packing actually helps Dems in the runoffs IMO.
 

Wittmann45

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It's The Progressives Dummy
Wait, is that author trying to argue that progressives won big in 2018? At best, the results were mixed and ambiguous. Yes progressives won, but they won in a number of established Democratic seats and the success of 2018 was just as much down to centrists as it was a victory for progressivism. Blue districts are getting bluer due to polarization; that shouldn't be taken as evidence that a broad progressive platform is popular nationwide.

I get the author's point, but he/she shouldn't be rewriting history. A couple progressives from Texas won seats, that still leaves many more seats that flipped that were won primarily by moderates. Nor are the number of defeats progressive candidates faced in red/purple states or districts mentioned. The author also kind of fails to mention how quickly Bernie Sanders' primary challenge fizzled out and how even his early success in New Hampshire was somewhat disappointing. It seems to be implied that because Biden almost lost he should have moved further left before the election or the Democrats should have picked a more progressive candidate. However, he ran against many more progressive candidates in the primary and he trounced them and part of his appeal, I think, was that he was pretty difficult to attack for Trump. Sanders, even though he was someone I favoured and he was actually a fighter, would also have been a lot easier for Trump to ridicule and fear monger over. Biden got beat in Florida because he publicly courted Sanders' voters and because Trump warned of Biden's supposed connection to the "far left" and "socialism." That messaging was effective, and while Florida shouldn't be representative of the nation as a whole, Trump also would have been a lot more effective in attack against a candidate that was far more left.

Also, is it not a problem of messaging? I think I read an article once that found that voters largely supported Sanders' positions on a number of issues but when they were told that those issues were somehow "socialism" or "far left," those same people looked less favourably on the exact same issues. I could be totally wrong but I think that is true. Sanders' positions are popular but American voters, for some reason or another, get scared when those positions are pushed by a progressive or a "socialist"

To be fair, a number of progressives lost in relatively close races in pretty Republican friendly territory in 2018. However, while progressives mobilized voters in places like Texas, ie, Beto, Republicans also mobilized a pretty robust opposition to those progressive candidates as well. Progressives shouldn't be blamed for the failures of 2020, but arguing a sharp shift left turn would have solved anything is probably wrong too.

Also, as far as the popularity of the ACA versus Medicare, even though Medicare is viewed more favourably, it doesn't mean that an expansion of that policy is actually universally popular or that much more popular than the ACA. While most/many Republicans want the ACA replaced, a large majority of Democrats and Independents do not want it repealed. I think Medicare is popular, but Medicare for All is a slightly stickier issue.
 
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MuFc_1992

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Why are Belfair still offering 1.1 on Biden winning? I had $400 on Trump to win on there so, Is it still possible for me to cash out anything on that bet?
 

Wittmann45

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'Keep the flag flying Jimmy'
Why are Belfair still offering 1.1 on Biden winning? I had $400 on Trump to win on there so, Is it still possible for me to cash out anything on that bet?
Sorry, don't know betting, but does 1.1 mean that if you bet $1 on Biden and he does get confirmed, you would win $1.10?

Also, if the Trump/McConnel appointed judges decide in Trump's favour in his legal challenges, ballots are thrown out and the results of the election are overturned, thus destroying American Democracy, you might just win a cool $400.
 

MuFc_1992

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Sorry, don't know betting, but does 1.1 mean that if you bet $1 on Biden and he does get confirmed, you would win $1.10?

Also, if the Trump/McConnel appointed judges decide in Trump's favour in his legal challenges, ballots are thrown out and the results of the election are overturned, thus destroying American Democracy, you might just win a cool $400.
Nah, I don't want that so, I've cashed out at $35. My original bet was on Biden to win but I put $200 on Trump just to hedge my initial bet which has been paid out.
 

Brwned

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:lol:

He's not stopping there...





Waaaaaaaaah! Somebody call a waaaaaambulance!
Could be true. Imagine if Pfizer had announced the results a week earlier and it had the Comey effect. I'd expect a few riots at that point. There's no way Pfizer ignored the political implications of the timing of their analysis and release.
 
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