SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Wumminator

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Things can be serious and people (like Piers Morgan) can still be shamelessly fear mongering, the two ain't mutually exclusive.

For example that women that went on the radio and falsely claimed/implied children were starting to be admitted to hospital in serious numbers, if the president of the royal college of paediatrics and child health didn't quickly rebuff that they'd be parents in their thousands if not millions right now panicking on the strength of misinformation.
So the example of the media over emphasising things at the moment consists of a woman on a radio phone in?
 

africanspur

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I'd expect the usual anti royal stuff to follow, but this is good for them, and if it sways just a few more of espcially the older generation to have then even better.
Would be weird in fairness if there anti-royal stuff following this. Not like its William who's received it, they'd both be right in line to receive the vaccine now even if they were totally normal citizens.
 

Dancfc

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So the example of the media over emphasising things at the moment consists of a woman on a radio phone in?
It was an example off the top of my head, I've also used an example of a presenter who's been systematically scaremongering the nation for the best part of a year.

But if we're going to bring the media into it, at the start of the pandemic they use to take advantage of lag delays, again to pluck one example after the May bank holiday they went with a deaths SOAR headline knowing full well many won't be clued on to realise it's a reporting lag.
 
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Wiltord02

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1. What’s the concern about false positives?Who gives a shit? Seriously. Conspiracy muppets have been banging this drum for ages. Trying to pretend this epidemic isn’t as serious as it seems. Now we have hospitals literally on their knees and it still worries you that some people might have been inconvenienced by being asked to restrict their movements when it might not have been necessary. That’s what worries you?!

2. Pharma companies will post all the clinical study reports online. They’ve been doing it for the last several years. All the data has been submitted to the regulators already though. So what’s your concern here?
1. From what I have read. It worries me that that the whole government covid strategy for the past year has been based off this PCR test when the test itself is ran to such a high cycle threshold that it can detect dead fragments of the virus. Thus, we don't know the true case numbers. Happy to be corrected if I'm wrong.

Of course the situation is now very serious with hospitals, I'm not denying that. I'm questioning the lack of transparency shown by this government. To put it bluntly I don't trust them.

2. The concern over the vaccine is how effective it will be. The linked article raises concerns over this. I don't believe there is any harm in being skeptical over a newly produced vaccine.
 

Wiltord02

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So with regards to the first point, do you feel that people are being misdiagnosed with Covid when they have another serious respiratory illness? Or that they don't have any serious illness at all?
From what I have read, the PCR test can still detect fragments of the dead virus. Surely, if you mass test certain parts of the population, you will find healthy people in this situation?

Again, I'm happy to be corrected.
 

RedRover

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Things can be serious and people (like Piers Morgan) can still be shamelessly fear mongering, the two ain't mutually exclusive.

For example that women that went on the radio and falsely claimed/implied children were starting to be admitted to hospital in serious numbers, if the president of the royal college of paediatrics and child health didn't quickly rebuff that they'd be parents in their thousands if not millions right now panicking on the strength of misinformation.
Remember "kawasaki disease"? The BBC loved that for about a fortnight.
 

Mibabalou

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If anything people aren't scared enough. There's so little respect or worry, more annoyance that we're in the situation.
Agreed. I think a big failure has been the messaging from a public health point of view, the masses became massively tired of the situation by around June/July.

I dont know what would have kept everyone in isolation more but I think the government was totally unrealistic about what the people would do rather than being realistic. Felt a little like teaching teenagers abstinence rather than safe sex.

The messaging was just stay home stay safe, rather than maybe something like get tested often and only once you know you're negative meet up with friends outside or something.

But again that requires massive testing and people doing it.
 

jojojo

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From what I have read, the PCR test can still detect fragments of the dead virus. Surely, if you mass test certain parts of the population, you will find healthy people in this situation?

Again, I'm happy to be corrected.
People can test positive after they stop being infectious (not spreading live virus any more) if that's what you mean. That can go on for a week or two, or even longer in some individuals.

But as the usual reason for being tested is that you've got symptoms, that's unlikely to apply to many test results - and they aren't actually false positives. Where people get tested every week (like some hospital staff) then they'll know what's happening, and the quarantine rules are set accordingly.
 

prateik

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It's a perfectly sensible thing to do if 0 is not relevant in the data range.
It is when its comparing 2 sets of data. that graph is intended to highlight how much worse it is compared to previous years and not having it start at zero clearly skews the perspective.
 

F-Red

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Why did the government not invest more into staff/beds in the summer rather than ploughing on with the vanity Nightingale project?
It isn't as easy as turning on a tap and finding skilled ICU nurses. Staffing levels have been ignored consistently by the government over the past decade, you need to go back as far as 4-5 years ago to have an impact on staffing levels today.
 

finneh

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The question was whether you believe that people being afforded more freedom in the build-up to and during Christmas was a major contributor to this spread, and whether that tells you anything about individuals' ability to make these risk assessments?
I still don't really know what freedoms people were "given" in the run up to Christmas (apart from two thirds of the country on Christmas day, by which point we were already up a creek without a paddle). Restrictions have been getting continuously more onerous since the November lockdown ended. Over that period and despite progressively strong measures, cases have only increased.

I'd imagine that despite pretty much the whole country being in lockdown for the last fortnight, cases will continue to be hugely problematic over the next 4-5 weeks until the vaccine protects the vulnerable. The new strain combined with the time of year makes that an unfortunate inevitability. Combine that with the fact that the biggest tool we had in the Armoury in March (fear) has been tapped dry meaning it'll tragically be a tough Winter. All we can hope is the vaccination program accelerates quickly.
 

711

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what am I missing ?

Surely the Queen getting vaccinated is big news..
The Queen is 94 and Phil the Greek is 99, so I'm surprised they haven't been vaccinated before now to be honest. They have minds of their own though, maybe they took a bit of convincing, like a lot of others. Or maybe the docs kept going to the wrong address and they were always in a different palace.
 

prateik

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What on earth is a good day?
UK hit 80k total deaths today....and another almost 60k cases - nothing great on the covid front today
Oh. ok. I saw the twitter bio -
Minister for Business & Industry and COVID Vaccine Deployment
Assumed the good day was in relation to some ramping up in vaccine deployment .
of course the situation on the whole is pretty grim.
 

jojojo

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The Queen is 94 and Phil the Greek is 99, so I'm surprised they haven't been vaccinated before now to be honest. They have minds of their own though, maybe they took a bit of convincing, like a lot of others. Or maybe the docs kept going to the wrong address and they were always in a different palace.
Waited for their own doctor to bring round the vaccine (probably AZ), rather than queuing up outside a hospital where they're using Pfizer. Same as most other oldies living in state run carehomes.
 

Wiltord02

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It isn't as easy as turning on a tap and finding skilled ICU nurses. Staffing levels have been ignored consistently by the government over the past decade, you need to go back as far as 4-5 years ago to have an impact on staffing levels today.
Aye, that's a fair point. I guess the chronic under funding of key sectors in the NHS over many years has resulted in this mess. You could probably go back further than ten years to see cuts in staffs/beds numbers. Also I remember SEN and SNR nursing positions being abolished which surely had an impact.
 

Sandikan

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Ive just fallen out with my brother.
I have finally snapped with his Covid denial - lockdown protest bullshit. Repeating twitter bullshit as gospel but criticises anyone else that may you know listen to a doctor or someone that actually knows what they are talking about. Not feckin Karen from Facebook.
I havent been so fecking angry in years. I feel like driving to his house to punch his lights out the complete imbecile.

The world is fecked and he becomes the type of prick that is exacerbating the problem. Posting videos of the English police going into someones house claiming its in Ireland and that our right are being trod on as we are in lock down. Refuses to read any sort of credibly sources news or medical professionals opinions, wont look at the videos of health care staff on their knees. A selfish prick and I am so disgusted with him. I am ashamed of him. Livid. I have left the family whatsapp now as its making me want to smash him the arsehole.

I hope he gets a fecking horrible dose of it
We all know these types. Luckily for most of us we can just hide their nonsense on social media or not deal with them.
Much worse in your example.
 

horsechoker

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The Queen is 94 and Phil the Greek is 99, so I'm surprised they haven't been vaccinated before now to be honest. They have minds of their own though, maybe they took a bit of convincing, like a lot of others. Or maybe the docs kept going to the wrong address and they were always in a different palace.
Needed extra time to see of it was compatibile with lizard DNA :wenger:
 

prateik

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Waited for their own doctor to bring round the vaccine (probably AZ), rather than queuing up outside a hospital where they're using Pfizer. Same as most other oldies living in state run carehomes.
Isn't the data more promising from the Pfizer/Moderna vaccines? Surely the queen would be getting the best available.. I'm sure transporting a small amount for the queen wouldnt be that hard even with the temperature requirements.
 

Sandikan

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Yeah I don’t think there has been much fearmongering. People seem to think that actually reporting news and estimates is fearmongering when it’s actually... news.
People seem to think that the main stream media can't be trusted to present the actual truth rather than some agenda. Some agenda that somehow tows the party line of the government/other conspirators even though the media are constantly moaning about how the same government are dealing with things!
 

tombombadil

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1. The lack of clarity over the operational false positive of the PCR tests. The government doesn't seem to have released this data. I want to know whether the test is fit for purpose.

2. Concerning vaccines, the media went into a frenzy over "95%" efficacy rates. However, the lack of raw data from the vaccine companies is very worrying and the fact it won't be released anytime soon.

https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/0...ccines-we-need-more-details-and-the-raw-data/
I thought the raw data has literally been released?

https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download
 

tombombadil

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From what I have read, the PCR test can still detect fragments of the dead virus. Surely, if you mass test certain parts of the population, you will find healthy people in this situation?

Again, I'm happy to be corrected.
Not sure what the concern is?

So they detect dead fragments of the virus. Still means they've been historically infected right? Just maybe not infectious anymore.
 

Pogue Mahone

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1. From what I have read. It worries me that that the whole government covid strategy for the past year has been based off this PCR test when the test itself is ran to such a high cycle threshold that it can detect dead fragments of the virus. Thus, we don't know the true case numbers. Happy to be corrected if I'm wrong.

Of course the situation is now very serious with hospitals, I'm not denying that. I'm questioning the lack of transparency shown by this government. To put it bluntly I don't trust them.

2. The concern over the vaccine is how effective it will be. The linked article raises concerns over this. I don't believe there is any harm in being skeptical over a newly produced vaccine.
1. Even if PCR testing gives an appallingly vague indicator of the real number of cases* it still acts as a canary in the coal mine. As I said, the false positive issue was something that covid denialists bored on about all year. Trying to imply the epidemic is much less serious than it seems. So I can’t really understand why this would bother you right now, with hospitals completely in the shit and absolutely no doubt that this virus can quickly overwhelm the health service. We can all see that the massive surge in cases over the last several weeks - as detected by PCR - has translated into thousands of people dead and dying in ITUs up and down the country. Explain to me again why the possibility that a proportion of the surge in cases that warned us this catastrophe was coming might have been false positives is something that worries you? Because to me - as worries go - that one seems completely redundant.

2. People who are way smarter than you or me have gone through the data with a fine tooth comb and are happy that the benefit outweighs the risk. The results of every clinical trial on every intervention ever can be criticised. There is no such thing as flawless clinical data. It is also very rare to see efficacy as clearly demonstrated as we’ve seen with the mRNA vaccines so far. Assuming you’re willing to take any other medicine, to treat any other condition, I wouldn’t be too worried about taking these vaccines. Especially if you’re in the high risk groups who will be getting vaccinated early. The risk from getting the virus are so high it’s as close as you’ll ever get to a no-brainer in medicine. Hence physicians - who make a career out of interpreting data like this - are literally queuing up to get injected.


*it isn’t
 
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Beans

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Remember "kawasaki disease"? The BBC loved that for about a fortnight.
Kawasaki disease is the closest thing to what SARS-CoV-2 does to your body. The cell walls of the blood vessel break down and the Von Willebrand factor dumps into the blood and causes clotting. The tiny capillaries in the lungs that bring in oxygen are especially susceptible. This video gets into what’s going on inside the cell that leads to oxidization in the blood stream.
 

Wiltord02

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1. Even if PCR testing gives an appallingly vague indicator of the real number of cases* it still acts as a canary in the coal mine. As I said, the false positive issue was something that covid denialists bored on about all year. Trying to imply the epidemic is much less serious than it seems. So I can’t really understand why this would bother you right now, with hospitals completely in the shit and absolutely no doubt that this virus can quickly overwhelm the health service. We can all see that the massive surge in cases over the last several weeks - as detected by PCR - has translated into thousands of people dead and dying in ITUs up and down the country. Explain to me again why the possibility that a proportion of the surge in cases that warned us this catastrophe was coming might have been false positives is something that worries you? Because to me - as worries go - that one seems completely redundant.

2. People who are way smarter than you or me have gone through the data with a fine tooth comb and are happy that the benefit outweighs the risk. The results of every clinical trial on every intervention ever can be criticised. There is no such thing as flawless clinical data. It is also very rare to see efficacy as clearly demonstrated as we’ve seen with the mRNA vaccines so far. Assuming you’re willing to take any other medicine, to treat any other condition, I wouldn’t be too worried about taking these vaccines. Especially if you’re in the high risk groups who will be getting vaccinated early. The risk from getting the virus are so high it’s as close as you’ll ever get to a no-brainer in medicine. Hence physicians - who make a career out of interpreting data like this - are literally queuing up to get injected.


*it isn’t

1. I was just giving my general view of the whole thing so far. I suppose concern was the wrong word. I was interested in the effectiveness and accuracy of the PCR test during 2020. I wasn't trying to link the issues of PCR test to the situation we have now. I was just skeptical over the PCR test numbers that occurred throughout 2020. I just wanted to make sure that the data was correct and hear other opinions on it. Obviously the position we are in now shows that Covid is once again rising.
 

Pogue Mahone

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1. I was just giving my general view of the whole thing so far. I suppose concern was the wrong word. I was interested in the effectiveness and accuracy of the PCR test during 2020. I wasn't trying to link the issues of PCR test to the situation we have now. I was just skeptical over the PCR test numbers that occurred throughout 2020. I just wanted to make sure that the data was correct and hear other opinions on it. Obviously the position we are in now shows that Covid is once again rising.
Well the brief response to your concerns about PCR false positives is that it’s an extremely accurate test and false positives will only ever cause issues if/when we get the viral load in the community considerably lower than it has been for the last several months.

Apologies if my response came across as narky. It’s just that false positives with PCR was something that all the usual suspects were bringing up all summer to try and argue that the covid issue was being overstated. Now they’ve been proven comprehensively wrong it ruffled my feathers to see someone still bringing it up. Honestly, it’s a complete non-issue. Right at the bottom of the list of problems this pandemic has thrown us.