SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Pexbo

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Excess mortality in Europe 2020
(Comparison with 2016-2019 levels)

Liechtenstein: 20,8 %
Spain: 18,9 %
Poland: 18,7 %
Slovakia: 18,5 %
Italy: 17,4 %
Belgium: 16,7 %
Czech: 16,6 %
Bulgaria: 15,1 %
Britain & N. Ireland: 15,1 %
Switzerland: 13,0 %
Malta: 12,6 %
Lithuania: 12,3 %
Holland: 11,6 %
Romania: 11,1 %
Austria: 11,1 %
Portugal: 11,0 %
Slovakia: 10,5 %
Luxembourg: 10,4 %
France: 10,4 %
Cyprus: 9,2 %
Croatia: 9,1 %
Hungary: 8,1 %
Sweden: 7,6 %
Greece: 7,5 %
Germany: 5,3 %
Estonia: 3,1 %
Finland: 2,7 %
Iceland: 1,6 %
Denmark: 1,6 %
Latvia: 0,4 %
Norway: -0,4 %

Source: Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, data from Eurostat, University of Oxford och SCB.

Appears a fair bit of under-reporting even in Europe; noticeable that Belgium don’t quite stick out the same in this list.
Hopefully vaccines will see a year or two of lower than normal levels of mortality now. Fingers crossed, some good stats this week have improved my downbeat mood.
I very much doubt it when you consider how diagnoses of all diseases are way down and the rate at which elective surgeries have been postponed.
 

Drifter

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"This is going to be the last lockdown", Matt Hancock says. "No guarantee current lockdown will be the last", minister admits. Can't help but think of Matt Lucas impersonation of Boris when listening to these clowns.
 

hmchan

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One of the most hilarious news I've ever seen - false positives caused by shaking of saliva containers.

Hong Kong police arrest lab assistant accused of tampering with coronavirus test samples
“The suspect was accused of deliberately shaking utensils containing deep-throat saliva specimens in order to affect the test results in the laboratory on three occasions on February 9 and 11,” she said.
https://amp.scmp.com/news/hong-kong...hong-kong-police-arrest-lab-assistant-accused
 
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I very much doubt it when you consider how diagnoses of all diseases are way down and the rate at which elective surgeries have been postponed.
You think? You pessistmic sod, my first positive post in here for about half a year and you hit me with this.

I think 2021 will have lower mortality in many a country, and I'm gonna stick to that utterly unscientific claim.
 

Dumbstar

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Is there any way of calculating (estimating through hospitalisation, R rate, etc) how many people approx in the UK were likely to have been infected? I'm trying to look for this information to see how many people already have immunity in this country coupled with the vaccination programme.

So we know 16 million are now immune from danger because of vaccines. And from 8 Jan figures there were 1.2 million infections reported. But the real number, mostly containing asymptomatic or never reported cases, will push this number a lot higher. The government must be using this to evaluate the risk of re-opening the country.
 

Pexbo

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You think? You pessistmic sod, my first positive post in here for about half a year and you hit me with this.

I think 2021 will have lower mortality in many a country, and I'm gonna stick to that utterly unscientific claim.
Lower excess mortality than last year - probably.
Lower excess mortality than average - seems unlikely if there is a backlog of elective surgeries and missed diagnoses.

I guess the amount of already sick and vulnerable people who have been killed off by this could impact the figures though.
 
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Lower excess mortality than last year - probably.
Lower excess mortality than average - seems unlikely if there is a backlog of elective surgeries and missed diagnoses.

I guess the amount of already sick and vulnerable people who have been killed off by this could impact the figures though.
Which is what I'm basing my unscientific positivity on.
 

jojojo

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Is there any way of calculating (estimating through hospitalisation, R rate, etc) how many people approx in the UK were likely to have been infected? I'm trying to look for this information to see how many people already have immunity in this country coupled with the vaccination programme.

So we know 16 million are now immune from danger because of vaccines. And from 8 Jan figures there were 1.2 million infections reported. But the real number, mostly containing asymptomatic or never reported cases, will push this number a lot higher. The government must be using this to evaluate the risk of re-opening the country.
The easiest baseline data comes from the ONS, and they are talking about 18% of the population having covid antibodies.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...n-england-wales-northern-ireland-and-scotland
Those are from tests taken during January so those are mostly antibodies from infection rather than vaccination.

Timing is important though - you need to look at Jab + 3 weeks for antibodies. You also need to keep in mind that some people aren't protected by antibodies, even after a jab. Where the antibodies are from prior infection there may not be enough of them to stop reinfection. Mutations throw in another limitation - with the SA variant in particular, the antibodies from past infection with the original strain, don't seem to protect people from reinfection.

There are promising signs at the moment, coming out of the vaccination program (from the UK and from elsewhere) but it could be another month before we really know what's happening.
 

Dumbstar

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454 deaths today compared to 678 last Thursday. Sorry don't have other numbers, this is the only one I've been interested in.
533 deaths today (Friday) compared to 758 last Friday. I'm now officially excited for Monday's announcements.
 

Vidyoyo

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Puregym emailed me today to petition for ending restrictions on gyms. I probably won't be returning myself but I signed because I want the government to acknowledge the impact that lack of exercise might be having on people's mental health. Also a bit of a power move on their part, I think.
 

Dumbstar

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Puregym emailed me today to petition for ending restrictions on gyms. I probably won't be returning myself but I signed because I want the government to acknowledge the impact that lack of exercise might be having on people's mental health. Also a bit of a power move on their part, I think.
Not surprising at all, everyone can see vaccines have hit the spot and each business area wants to get in Boris' eyeline for Monday. I'm fully expecting outdoor sports to reopen straight away so I started some light jogging for my Saturday 5 a side sessions. :)

Ps. I will probably hold off from indoor exercise too for a few weeks.
 

Vidyoyo

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You don't need a gym to get exercise
No you don't as my big bag of water and running shoes demonstrate.

I mentioned the mental health part though because I think having the option of exercise would be help a little, even at what I hope would be massively reduced capacity. I think it's the lesser of a few evils when it comes to reopening again.

That said, I'm not defending Puregym entirely because they did just about the bare minimum to be Covid-safe last night they reopened.
 

F-Red

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I mentioned the mental health part though because I think having the option of exercise would be help a little, even at what I hope would be massively reduced capacity. I think it's the lesser of a few evils when it comes to reopening again.
This isn't directed at you, but I get tired of the 'mental health' line rolled out by most gyms over the last 12 months. They really didn't give a shit about it prior to the pandemic. Most of the gyms using it during the pandemic may as well have come out with 'I don't believe in the restrictions' or 'I would like to make money'. I'd probably have a bit more respect for their honesty.

Mental health is being treated currently as an excuse to do whatever you want that is currently being inconvenienced by the restrictions. Lets hope all those businesses who are championing mental health now as a reason for opening up, are advocating for better mental health services when all of this is over.
 

BluesJr

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Like most businesses everything they say and do is completely in their own self interest (profits) and nothing to do with mental health. You don't need a gym to improve your mental health through exercise.
 

Stanley Road

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This isn't directed at you, but I get tired of the 'mental health' line rolled out by most gyms over the last 12 months. They really didn't give a shit about it prior to the pandemic. Most of the gyms using it during the pandemic may as well have come out with 'I don't believe in the restrictions' or 'I would like to make money'. I'd probably have a bit more respect for their honesty.

Mental health is being treated currently as an excuse to do whatever you want that is currently being inconvenienced by the restrictions. Lets hope all those businesses who are championing mental health now as a reason for opening up, are advocating for better mental health services when all of this is over.
Companies are the same, they talk about mental health during lockdown but don't understand how depressed I was going to the office 5 days a week.now I'm so much happier
 

Berbasbullet

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This isn't directed at you, but I get tired of the 'mental health' line rolled out by most gyms over the last 12 months. They really didn't give a shit about it prior to the pandemic. Most of the gyms using it during the pandemic may as well have come out with 'I don't believe in the restrictions' or 'I would like to make money'. I'd probably have a bit more respect for their honesty.

Mental health is being treated currently as an excuse to do whatever you want that is currently being inconvenienced by the restrictions. Lets hope all those businesses who are championing mental health now as a reason for opening up, are advocating for better mental health services when all of this is over.
Oh yeah I agree completely, of course mental health is hugely important but I got people telling me we need to go back to normal because of apparent suicide numbers (which I am sure are really bad, but ultimately we’re at 100k+ dead now).
 

JPRouve

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Well it depends what form of exercise you're doing. Don't need it to run but to lift any decent weights etc you do.
People rarely lift decent weights in those fancy gyms, they barely need a gym subscription in the first place. ;)
 

Pogue Mahone

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Shitty weather, dark nights- most people working until 5 or 6- a gym is definitely the safest and most effective place to exercise. Should never have closed imo.
They definitely should have closed. For obvious reasons.

Having said that, of all the (relatively) unnecessary indoor activities gyms would be top of my list to reopen. As they directly improve the health of the nation. I’d want outdoor sports to start long before that though. That’s what really pisses me off. Gobshites not following the advice about sharing lifts or changing rooms has ruined it for the rest of us. Outdoor amateur sports has to the least risky group activity to get going again, provided everyone follows the guidelines.
 

Vidyoyo

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This isn't directed at you, but I get tired of the 'mental health' line rolled out by most gyms over the last 12 months. They really didn't give a shit about it prior to the pandemic. Most of the gyms using it during the pandemic may as well have come out with 'I don't believe in the restrictions' or 'I would like to make money'. I'd probably have a bit more respect for their honesty.

Mental health is being treated currently as an excuse to do whatever you want that is currently being inconvenienced by the restrictions. Lets hope all those businesses who are championing mental health now as a reason for opening up, are advocating for better mental health services when all of this is over.
Don't worry, I agree. There's obvious skin in the game for them to go down that narrative.

Once they open, I'd prefer reduced capacity and limited visits per week. That would at least, I think, serve to help the greatest number of people (ie not just the meatheads).
 

Ecstatic

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Excess mortality in Europe 2020
(Comparison with 2016-2019 levels)

Liechtenstein: 20,8 %
Spain: 18,9 %
Poland: 18,7 %
Slovakia: 18,5 %
Italy: 17,4 %
Belgium: 16,7 %
Czech: 16,6 %
Bulgaria: 15,1 %
Britain & N. Ireland: 15,1 %
Switzerland: 13,0 %
Malta: 12,6 %
Lithuania: 12,3 %
Holland: 11,6 %
Romania: 11,1 %
Austria: 11,1 %
Portugal: 11,0 %
Slovakia: 10,5 %
Luxembourg: 10,4 %
France: 10,4 %
Cyprus: 9,2 %
Croatia: 9,1 %
Hungary: 8,1 %
Sweden: 7,6 %
Greece: 7,5 %
Germany: 5,3 %
Estonia: 3,1 %
Finland: 2,7 %
Iceland: 1,6 %
Denmark: 1,6 %
Latvia: 0,4 %
Norway: -0,4 %

Source: Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, data from Eurostat, University of Oxford och SCB.

Appears a fair bit of under-reporting even in Europe; noticeable that Belgium don’t quite stick out the same in this list.
Hopefully vaccines will see a year or two of lower than normal levels of mortality now. Fingers crossed, some good stats this week have improved my downbeat mood.
Interesting table.

What makes you believe there is an under-reporting?
 

Ecstatic

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This isn't directed at you, but I get tired of the 'mental health' line rolled out by most gyms over the last 12 months. They really didn't give a shit about it prior to the pandemic. Most of the gyms using it during the pandemic may as well have come out with 'I don't believe in the restrictions' or 'I would like to make money'. I'd probably have a bit more respect for their honesty.

Mental health is being treated currently as an excuse to do whatever you want that is currently being inconvenienced by the restrictions. Lets hope all those businesses who are championing mental health now as a reason for opening up, are advocating for better mental health services when all of this is over.
Hypocrisy is not the monopoly held by the advocates for the 'mental health' line.

Now, economic, social and mental life should matter in the public debate.
 

Wibble

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Interesting table.

What makes you believe there is an under-reporting?
I'd imagine because in most countries reported covid deaths are lower than excess mortality figures despite there being far fewer flu deaths this year.
 

fergies coat

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Being stuck in the house with wife and kids 24/7, it’s a small terraced house which seems to be getting smaller
Exactly my situation with 3 kids. I'm going crazy. I can't wait until they go back to school. I love them but Jesus thier annoying.

Its boring for them though. It's not like you can take them anywhere. The park gets boring after a handful of times.
 
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africanspur

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Apart from not going to the gym, what is causing MH issues for some people?
I think for most people:

-A sense of helplessness
-The loss of ability to do many of the things that make us human (meeting up with family and friends, hugging and kissing them, dating etc)
-Loneliness
-A worry about the future and your job prospects or a loss of a year of your life at the minimum
-A feeling of being trapped in a house with people you may love but who are probably getting on your nerves by now
-A fear of dying
-Seeing the look of utter dread on patients' faces as I tell them of their Covid diagnosis, as they ask me if they're going to die, as we put them on the CPAP machine, as we put them to sleep and on the ventilator and as they pass away, surrounded only by strangers with masks and visors on.
-Tottenham's utterly dire form and playing style
 

golden_blunder

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Exactly my situation with 3 kids. I'm going crazy. I can't wait until they go back to school. I love them but Jesus thier annoying.
Yeah it’s hard to get a bit of mental space to yourself when the kids are messing around or when the wife is going on about something unimportant. Sometimes I envy single people just for the headspace