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Always good news when Eric Feigl Ding is posted
That makes grim reading.
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For that to be necessary I would have expected to see a higher than average rate of covid hospitalisation or death in teachers and child care workers, but I'm not sure anyone has shown that to be the case, as it is with high risk groups like factory, care home, transport and retail workers?
I'm in favour of that.
The issue for the UK is that we've got a lot of those kind of disproportionate impact things. Occupational ones like taxi drivers etc; poverty; social ones like multigenerational living. We know enough to see it, but not enough to see if it really does more to bring down the death/hospitalisation toll than the current age/medical risk ones.
Overweight people are being bumped up though. They’re already considering high risk.
No system will be perfect. For me the Uk approach gets one piece wrong, which is not prioritising the young ahead of the young middle-aged. Looking at the age profile of cases and large outbreaks it arguably makes more sense to vaccinate 40 year olds after 20 year olds, for example.
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Get fecked with that!
You think? Go to an average holiday resort during school holidays and again during term. You’ll see how big a driver families are of tourism.
Serious?
Everyone will be vaccinated by mid-late June anyway (In the U.K.) - by the time we managed to get the data to even do that which would be incredibly difficult - there’s no link between NHS number and how many kids you have - it’ll all be over. That’s why they decided to stick with age and not job role or any other permutation - it’s far easier and quicker.
Ah right. The virus might be running faster than the data, as ever. We'll know more some time after re-opening of course.
Fair enough. Mass simultaneous school opening will test that strategy but c’est la vie. Be something for the UK to think about for boosters/new variant vaccines anyway. To get a list of parents you could presumably approach the schools. For the rest of us, something to think about right now.
Right but that's at limited parts of the year. Couples and young people without kids can go at any time of the year, plus by the time we get regular adults vaccinated summer will be over anyway! Absolutely no chance people with kids are bigger drivers of tourism than people without. Then you have all the weddings that have been delayed, getting them back going would be absolutely huge for hotels.
But again that's all very limited. When you've kids generally you're stuck going at certain times of year to certain resorts in certain areas. Here in Ireland we have loads of tourist towns that would benefit far more from people without kids being able to go, especially with a tourism culture that's so reliant on alcohol, pubs, hotel bars etc. Then you've all the stags, hens, weddings bla bla. There's no comparison. Plus people without kids are more likely to go back to the office instead of work remotely too given they've less commitments which means more money being spent in city centers again.
Thankfully that isn’t being done in Wales.
I get the impression Wales and Scotland are getting the best of both worlds. Shitloads of vaccines, without as many risks of another massive surge thanks to Boris’ bullishness about reopening.
It’s shit for everyone. In different ways. And there will be people taking lockdown worse than others in every possible category. Prioritising parents wouldn’t be about targeting the people worst affected by lockdown, though, it would be trying to prevent the people most likely to catch the virus from passing it on to others. It would also help kids in school, which is one of the priorities we’ve agreed on as a society.
Eh, have we? I don't recall agreeing to it. Though for a start maybe we should vaccinate the teachers before looking at the kid's parents.
I'm not sure I count as young anymore, but I know I'm in the lowest priority band anyway so I'm not sure I'm massively bothered about what the precise order is of people who receive the vaccine before me. Either way, I'm going to be left with a massive sense of FOMO if you're all off having fun and I have to sit inside and wait for a vaccine to tick a box on an app or whatever.
Not only not knowing how reliable it is but also it is just fact stating. No external and/or latest circumstances being taken into consideration, i.e. the vaccination processes of different countries particularly the UK.
Basically nothing like that.
Fair enough. But hasn't the latest AZ study shown it is already somewhat effective against the Brazilian strain? Read it this morning on the BBC.
I hope so I just had the inoculation an hour ago.
No and no.
Honestly, you can generally ignore him. He's a joke among all the (weirdly large number of) infectious disease experts I've followed over the last year.
I ignore him because he's the ultimate bearer of bad news. I can't vouch for his credibility but anytime I've seen him on here he leaves me with a sense of dread.
Last time we had lockdown with schools open, cases dropped, so there's no certainty that cases will rise. They might drop more slowly than they otherwise would have, but we're starting at a pretty low baseline, and primary school age kids currently have the lowest rate of infection of any age group, so are the lowest risk group to relax restrictions on.
Excellent. I’m trying to keep off Twitter to avoid having my mood soured like that. Appreciate you separating the wheat and chaff. It’s amazing how easy it is to get sucked into a doom spiral by carefully cherry picked worrying looking data.
Probably not, but logic would say that if you cover your nose and mouth, you’re less likely likely to pass stuff on. Most people did that already when they sneeze for example.
Partly his ridiculous negative bias, but also largely that he often indicates that he doesn't really understand the studies he's shouting about.
Music to my ears.
To be honest, wish I had the willpower to stay off twitter. It's horrible for my mental health!
Try it! Honestly the difference is amazing. Just delete the poxy app off your phone and away you go.
Agree that we are at a low base. But should the lateral flow test results be added to national figures wouldn't you expect positive cases to go up. Twice weekly testing on about 10m kids. Figures are all heading in the right direction but I hope we don't get nervous about cases increasing. What's more important now is preventing admissions and hospitalizations.
