China bullies Hong Kong

[OleBoiii]

Look at Guantanamo Bay. Wasn't this a contract done years back and the USA would not give it back to Cuba? Look at Diego Garcia, Kashmir, Catalonia, Crimea? Kruschev who is an Ukranian gave to to the Republic of Ukraine when it was under the USSR. When USSR broke up the Crimeans wanted to be independent . Ukraine refused. So let's have a Universal system for people who want to be independent. Not just some people. Look at the people of Palestine. Heck they were invaded as part of Jordan and occupied still by Israel. As a westerner don't you see the hypocrisy of this is when you become selective?

I haven't been selective, though. I simply don't know enough about the situations above to take an "ethical stance".

Just because I feel sympathy for the people of Hong Kong and would want them to get independence(if the population truly wants this), it doesn't mean I that think that only Hong Kong deserves independence. I find this whataboutism when discussing Hong Kong rather pointless.

 

[Cal?]

Strange that the uk handed the keys back to China and every other country went yup that's normal then? .... unless perhaps its not the rest of the world whose wrong and it might actually be you?

Deng threatened to invade if Thatcher didn't agree to hand HK over.

The Hong Kong situation is a bit different from the typical border conflict. In many cases, provinces want independence purely for financial reasons. In the case of Hong Kong it was clearly about more than that. You have a people that has been born and raised with the idea that freedom of speech and freedom of the press are fundamental rights. Speaking as a Westerner I'd be genuinely terrified if I saw a possibility of this being taken away from me.

The moment it became clear that China gradually would seize control, as much as 15% of Hong Kong's population(over a 10 year period) either left Hong Kong permanently or to get a "back-up visa" from a different nation(Canada for instance). That speaks volumes, imo. 15% might not sound that bad, but then you have to consider all the people who either didn't have the resources for such a move or the ones who simply didn't dare to(which is understandable).

I get that allowing Hong Kong to become independent would be highly irregular, but it would probably be the right move(if the majority of Hong Kongers want this). I think the reason why so many feel extra sympathy with Hong Kong is the absurdity of the situation. Someone wrote a contract over 100 years ago that neither you nor your ancestors had the power to change, and now you'll gradually lose a lot of the things you hold dear. It's bizarre.

The situation is worse than this, the CCP agreed in the Joint Declaration to preserve HK's way of life at least until 2047, but have gone back on it less than halfway through.

 

[OleBoiii]

The situation is worse than this, the CCP agreed in the Joint Declaration to preserve HK's way of life at least until 2047, but have gone back on it less than halfway through.

Yeah, I know.

It's a pure power move from China to not honour even this simple agreement. It seems like they want to eradicate the Hong Kong way of life as quickly as possible.

 

[Cal?]

Yeah, I know.

It's a pure power move from China to not honour even this simple agreement. It seems like they want to eradicate the Hong Kong way of life as quickly as possible.

I think it's just Emperor Xi, he made himself emperor and can't tolerate HKers not worshipping him like people in mainland China do.

Also I'm sure his next goal is to invade Taiwan.

 

[OleBoiii]

Also I'm sure his next goal is to invade Taiwan.

That will surely trigger a world war?

 

[VorZakone]

That will surely trigger a world war?

No it won't because China isn't invading Taiwan anytime soon. And when they potentially do invade Taiwan I reckon other countries won't intervene. This could be in 50 years when China has modernized its military.

But not in the next 10 years, I can guarantee you that.

 

[OleBoiii]

No it won't because China isn't invading Taiwan anytime soon. And when they potentially do invade Taiwan I reckon other countries won't intervene. This could be in 50 years when China has modernized its military.

But not in the next 10 years, I can guarantee you that.

In 50 years the world might look very different. An invasion might not trigger a world war then, yeah.

I agree that there is absolutely no way China invades Taiwan in the next 10 years.

I've read that the only reason the CCP wants to seize control over Taiwan is for the simple reason that the country is a massive middle-finger to China's political system in the sense that they have kept Chinese traditions while not sacrificing freedom. They're basically a real life mini-model of what China could be like with a different government and political system.

 

[africanspur]

In 50 years the world might look very different. An invasion might not trigger a world war then, yeah.

I agree that there is absolutely no way China invades Taiwan in the next 10 years.

I've read that the only reason the CCP wants to seize control over Taiwan is for the simple reason that the country is a massive middle-finger to China's political system in the sense that they have kept Chinese traditions while not sacrificing freedom. They're basically a real life mini-model of what China could be like with a different government and political system.

I don't think that's the main reason at all. I'm sure it plays a part, as territorial disputes often do.

This is not a justification for their actions but a look at the geopolitics of the situation. Observe America's ability to project their military power, at least in part through their navy and their unrestricted access to two oceans and then look at China's maritime borders and the ring of American allies circling them across the South/East China Seas and the Yellow Sea and affecting their ability to break out/break in if war were to ever start.

I think similar for Tibet and their land borders.


Ironically, I think the way they've treated HK has made it less likely that the Taiwanese will want to join peacefully. Made a bit of a mockery of the whole two systems. Question is whether they can put enough soft pressure on them to join regardless. They're already very close economically and culturally.

 

[OleBoiii]

I don't think that's the main reason at all. I'm sure it plays a part, as territorial disputes often do.

This is not a justification for their actions but a look at the geopolitics of the situation. Observe America's ability to project their military power, at least in part through their navy and their unrestricted access to two oceans and then look at China's maritime borders and the ring of American allies circling them across the South/East China Seas and the Yellow Sea and affecting their ability to break out/break in if war were to ever start.

In the event of a world war I get that having control over Taiwan would be an advantage. But seeing as world war probably is considered the last resort for all existing superpowers, I'm not sure if this is the main reason(even though it matters). For a totalitarian regime, a very public act of defiance is a disaster of its own.

Ironically, I think the way they've treated HK has made it less likely that the Taiwanese will want to join peacefully.

Yeah, definitely. I think the Taiwanese public largely were against the idea even before what happened HK. If I'm not mistaken, top politicians in Taiwan aren't afraid to publicly criticise the CCP quite harshly?

Seeing as China don't have any "legal recourse" to take over Taiwan like they had with HK, there are only two solutions: invasion or infiltration(infiltrate Taiwanese politics and gradually destroy democracy from within).

 

[Cal?]

That will surely trigger a world war?

It basically depends on how the US react.

No it won't because China isn't invading Taiwan anytime soon. And when they potentially do invade Taiwan I reckon other countries won't intervene. This could be in 50 years when China has modernized its military.

But not in the next 10 years, I can guarantee you that.

I hope you're right, but Xi wants to establish his legacy, and the only way the CCP know how is through territorial expansion.

In 50 years the world might look very different. An invasion might not trigger a world war then, yeah.

I agree that there is absolutely no way China invades Taiwan in the next 10 years.

I've read that the only reason the CCP wants to seize control over Taiwan is for the simple reason that the country is a massive middle-finger to China's political system in the sense that they have kept Chinese traditions while not sacrificing freedom. They're basically a real life mini-model of what China could be like with a different government and political system.

I'm pretty sure they'll invade in Xi's lifetime.

Ironically, I think the way they've treated HK has made it less likely that the Taiwanese will want to join peacefully. Made a bit of a mockery of the whole two systems. Question is whether they can put enough soft pressure on them to join regardless. They're already very close economically and culturally.

Less likely? Try impossible, most Taiwanese identify as Taiwanese nowadays and those who still identify as Chinese are dying out by the day.

 

[africanspur]

In the event of a world war I get that having control over Taiwan would be an advantage. But seeing as world war probably is considered the last resort for all existing superpowers, I'm not sure if this is the main reason(even though it matters). For a totalitarian regime, a very public act of defiance is a disaster of its own.



Yeah, definitely. I think the Taiwanese public largely were against the idea even before what happened HK. If I'm not mistaken, top politicians in Taiwan aren't afraid to publicly criticise the CCP quite harshly?

Seeing as China don't have any "legal recourse" to take over Taiwan like they had with HK, there are only two solutions: invasion or infiltration(infiltrate Taiwanese politics and gradually destroy democracy from within).

I'm not talking about a world war situation though, there are levels between peace and all out world war. At the moment, the USA has total and unrestricted access to the oceans. Not just because of the sheer power of their navy but because there is absolutely no country, and even more specifically, no 'enemy' country which could hamper ships near their borders.

China's situation is the total opposite. They're in a bottleneck, surrounded by neutral or competing countries, some of whom house tens of thousands of American forces.

The Taiwanese politicians are not but again, I think the relationship can often be a bit more nuanced than that. The two have a relationship whereby they can have this inflammatory rhetoric but have huge amounts of trade and a document which allows taiwanese citizens to rock up in China for 5 years.

Of all the mainland Chinese/HK/Taiwanese I know, only one falls into this easy caricature of them that's often portrayed in western media.

My disclaimer is while I tbink life in China is probably nothing like what most people on here seem to think it is, I personally wouldn't want to join were I from HK or Taiwan.

 

[Foxbatt]

Sorry but some wrong assumptions on the Taiwan issue. Formosa was an island where Chang fled with his supporters after getting defeated by the communists. They forcibly took over the island from their current inhabitants and settled his supporters.
They also claimed for the whole of main land China still. Of course mainland China claims Formosa is part of China.
In reality now it's a different system but same people. It has nothing to do with XI. No Chinese leader can afford to let go officially of Formosa. I don't think they will invade so long as Taiwan don't declare independence. The current leadership is pro independence while the opposition is pro maintaining the status quo. So a lot depends on who is in power what they do.

As African spurs said a lot has got to do with the American military around the area. In case of war the South Korean military has no say but the American commander takes charge.

Do you know that Philippines claim the whole of Sabah still? They have not given up the claim still and occasionally it still flares up politically. Sometime back they even funded an invasion by insurgents. Because they were insurgents they could deny it.
This is an issue in South East Asia. Korea has threatened to even withdraw from the Olympics because the Japanese put a disputed island as Japanese.

 

[maniak]

The way democracies are right now, extremely weak, I bet if China invaded Taiwan tomorrow no one would do a thing besides releasing a few harsh statements and condemnations. No one would go to war to help Taiwan.

 

[Foxbatt]

The way democracies are right now, extremely weak, I bet if China invaded Taiwan tomorrow no one would do a thing besides releasing a few harsh statements and condemnations. No one would go to war to help Taiwan.

There is no way they can afford to do it. The financial costs would ruin them. Military wise only the US has the capability to stop them.
The issue is that some people think it's a one man dictatorship. It's not. The military has their own interests. Actually that is the most scary part. The CCCP don't have that much of an absolute control over the pla. It's one reason why the border situations get out of hand sometimes.

 

[maniak]

There is no way they can afford to do it. The financial costs would ruin them. Military wise only the US has the capability to stop them.
The issue is that some people think it's a one man dictatorship. It's not. The military has their own interests. Actually that is the most scary part. The CCCP don't have that much of an absolute control over the pla. It's one reason why the border situations get out of hand sometimes.

I wasn't talking about how hard it would be for China, but the reaction from other countries. Do you believe someone would go to war with China if they invaded Taiwan right now?

 

[sun_tzu]

I wasn't talking about how hard it would be for China, but the reaction from other countries. Do you believe someone would go to war with China if they invaded Taiwan right now?

I'm not even sure Taiwan would put up a fight... trump would probably stand for reelection based on going to war with China though

Give it 20 years though and economically Taiwan will need China so much there wont even be a need to invade

 

[Brwned]

The Hong Kong situation is a bit different from the typical border conflict. In many cases, provinces want independence purely for financial reasons.

Man, you have a lot of opinions on things you've hardly thought about. Most border conflicts are about identity, culture, heritage. Hong Kong has its own flavour of it but that is not in any way unique, and given it's such an important issue for so many people in these "provinces", you should really be a bit more thoughtful in how you discuss it.

 

[OleBoiii]

Man, you have a lot of opinions on things you've hardly thought about. Most border conflicts are about identity, culture, heritage. Hong Kong has its own flavour of it but that is not in any way unique, and given it's such an important issue for so many people in these "provinces", you should really be a bit more thoughtful in how you discuss it.

I regretted writing that particular line not long after I posted, but I felt that editing it away in hindsight would be disingenuous.

For a second I conflated "border conflicts" with my own country's wacky politicians who want to break out certain regions of Norway simply because "we got all the fish" or "we got all the oil". These politicians are of course never taken seriously. Sorry about that.

 

[Brwned]

I regretted writing that particular line not long after I posted, but I felt that editing it away in hindsight would be disingenuous.

For a second I conflated "border conflicts" with my own country's wacky politicians who want to break out certain regions of Norway simply because "we got all the fish" or "we got all the oil". These politicians are of course never taken seriously. Sorry about that.

It's all good, just an emotive topic! I don't have any knowledge of regional disputes in Norway but if that's a fair summation, they're a lot less serious and much tamer than most! My experience is the majority of independence movements don't pay attention to the financial outcomes at all, and in many cases (including my own region) the evidence points to it being a bad economic decision at least for a generation but that's a sacrifice many believe worth making. Politicians will pay attention to the economics but it comes from a much deeper place for the people driving it.

 

[Lj82]

[

Hong Kong was leased to UK... so yeah at the end of a lease you hand the keys back and leave...

The area with the lease was new territory I think. Hong Kong Island itself was ceded indefinitely. When thatcher visited China in the 80s she meant to negotiate an extension of the new territory lease, as they needed that for water supplies to Hong Kong island. Deng said no and Thatcher calculated that there was no way the island would survive without new territory and instead negotiated the 1997 return of the whole of Hong Kong

 

[Cal?]

The way democracies are right now, extremely weak, I bet if China invaded Taiwan tomorrow no one would do a thing besides releasing a few harsh statements and condemnations. No one would go to war to help Taiwan.

You'd be surprised, I think Japan will jump right in as long as the US gives some indication they'd help.

Japan can't really survive China having total control on the Taiwan Strait.

 

[Cal?]

I'm not even sure Taiwan would put up a fight... trump would probably stand for reelection based on going to war with China though

Give it 20 years though and economically Taiwan will need China so much there wont even be a need to invade

Taiwan will more than put up a fight, the anti-China sentiment is running very strong in Taiwan.

HK relies on China economically, but doesn't change the fact the majority would prefer independence.

 

[sun_tzu]

Taiwan will more than put up a fight, the anti-China sentiment is running very strong in Taiwan.

HK relies on China economically, but doesn't change the fact the majority would prefer independence.

I'm not sure how long Taiwan would put up a fight if they knew the USA wasn't gonna get involved... couple of days... perhaps a week .... China could cut imports almost straight away and food and fuel are not things Taiwan is self sufficient in.

 

[OleBoiii]

I'm not sure how long Taiwan would put up a fight if they knew the USA wasn't gonna get involved... couple of days... perhaps a week

I think Cal misinterpreted your post as "Taiwan wouldn't put up a fight because they don't really mind losing their independence to China". I sure did, based on your other posts

I agree that they probably would surrender fairly quickly if no country backed them up. Which would be goddamn tragedy, of course.

 

[The Firestarter]

I'm not sure how long Taiwan would put up a fight if they knew the USA wasn't gonna get involved... couple of days... perhaps a week .... China could cut imports almost straight away and food and fuel are not things Taiwan is self sufficient in.

Its not so easy to make a landing on an island when said island is armed to the teeth with anti ship and anti aircraft defenses. Talking about a purely conventional conflict, of course. It will take years for China to achieve its goal, and that at a tremendous cost.

 

[sun_tzu]

Its not so easy to make a landing on an island when said island is armed to the teeth with anti ship and anti aircraft defenses. Talking about a purely conventional conflict, of course. It will take years for China to achieve its goal, and that at a tremendous cost.

Why land... blockage and they will be starving and asking nicely to join China in no time... whats their other option... launch a full scale assault on bejing... good luck

 

[sun_tzu]

I think Cal misinterpreted your post as "Taiwan wouldn't put up a fight because they don't really mind losing their independence to China". I sure did, based on your other posts

I agree that they probably would surrender fairly quickly if no country backed them up. Which would be goddamn tragedy, of course.

Yeah if nobody backs them up its over and personally I'm not sure of americas appetite to potentially start ww3 over Taiwan... im not sure chinas is huge but its a lot bigger than americas

 

[The Firestarter]

Why land... blockage and they will be starving and asking nicely to join China in no time... whats their other option... launch a full scale assault on bejing... good luck

They won't be able to block the air. If they down a foreign plane making deliveries , it is fecking on.

 

[OleBoiii]

Its not so easy to make a landing on an island when said island is armed to the teeth with anti ship and anti aircraft defenses. Talking about a purely conventional conflict, of course. It will take years for China to achieve its goal, and that at a tremendous cost.

Isn't this also why the US dropped the nukes on Japan? Even with a severely weakened army and the whole world against them, it would still possibly take years to fully beat them to the point of surrender. The nukes were obviously an atrocity, but they did probably end up saving more lives than they took.

I'm not sure if China could(or would) drop nukes on Taiwan, though.

 

[The Firestarter]

Im not sure if China could(or would) drop nukes on Taiwan, though.

Absolutely no chance.

 

[OleBoiii]

Absolutely no chance.

So the options are basically:

1. Invasion with the help of nuclear bombs
Not gonna happen. Will trigger WW3.

2. Regular invasion
Will be very costly for China. It could also trigger WW3, though it's much less likely than with the option above.

3. Political infiltration
Infiltrate Taiwanese politics and gradually hand the country over to China.

They're probably already trying number 3, but it's not like this is guaranteed to work. It could also potentially take a very long time.

 

[sun_tzu]

They won't be able to block the air. If they down a foreign plane making deliveries , it is fecking on.

I'm not so sure... i mean I can't see any commercial airlines taking the risk

And I cant see any other governments wanting to send planes and get involved directly

Though several hundred cruise missiles a day on the runways in Taiwan means nobody will be flying there anyway as there won't be any runaways within about 5 mins if china really wanted to take them out

 

[The Taurean]

I'm not even sure Taiwan would put up a fight... trump would probably stand for reelection based on going to war with China though

Give it 20 years though and economically Taiwan will need China so much there wont even be a need to invade

What is your reasoning behind it?

 

[OleBoiii]

And I cant see any other governments wanting to send planes and get involved directly

I think that they would. This sort of aid don't typically mean that you are directly involved in the conflict. It's a way for other nations to give "soft support". If China chooses to shoot down planes and boats from other countries, then it's China that escalates the conflict.

 

[nimic]

I think that they would. This sort of aid don't typically mean that you are directly involved in the conflict. It's a way for other nations to give "soft support". If China chooses to shoot down planes and boats from other countries, then it's China that escalates the conflict.

Sure, but in that case you've still had some of your planes shot down or ships sunk, and now you're on the way to war with China. "They started it" won't matter much if your true goal was to avoid war.

 

[OleBoiii]

Sure, but in that case you've still had some of your planes shot down or ships sunk, and now you're on the way to war with China. "They started it" won't matter much if your true goal was to avoid war.

You could flip this argument around, though. Would China shoot down an American plane(for instance) and risk a full out war?

Based on what I've read, China most definitely don't want war now. Probably much less than the US. They're in a bit of a pickle, because in terms of man power they "should" start a war ASAP, but in terms of strategic position it's still way too soon. Because of the one-child policy and internal cultural change, the wave of elderly combined with the low birth rate is gonna hit the Chinese economy like a brick. The US on the other hand, is one of the few wealthy and militarily strong nations that don't suffer from this particular problem. And then there's the cultural aspect of how sons in China are expected to take care of their parents. If the government start to draft their only sons to die in battle, all hell will break lose internally.

If China truly wants to dominate the world, then their time is running out. They need to expand and engage rapidly, but the US will never allow this. It's one thing to conquer the markets and get a favorable position by investing in poorer nations in Africa and South America. Invading an independent and democratic country and strengthening your position in the Pacific in the same move is a completely different level. It's the perfect excuse for the US to go to war(if this is their intention).

 

[maniak]

You'd be surprised, I think Japan will jump right in as long as the US gives some indication they'd help.

Japan can't really survive China having total control on the Taiwan Strait.

I would bet all my money the US would not get involved militarily.

 

[Cal?]

I would bet all my money the US would not get involved militarily.

I would bet all my money the US will not send troops but will send as many planes, drones, missiles as needed.

 

[Cal?]

I'm not sure how long Taiwan would put up a fight if they knew the USA wasn't gonna get involved... couple of days... perhaps a week .... China could cut imports almost straight away and food and fuel are not things Taiwan is self sufficient in.

Japna will drag US into it, if China invades Taiwan, say goodbye to your loved ones, WWIII is on.

 

[Cal?]

I'm not sure how long Taiwan would put up a fight if they knew the USA wasn't gonna get involved... couple of days... perhaps a week .... China could cut imports almost straight away and food and fuel are not things Taiwan is self sufficient in.

Depends on Japan too