Donald Trump The First - Indicted The Fourth

Beachryan

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As ever, he's just a delusional narcissist. The issue isn't him, it's that he's being platformed at all.

I keep hoping the media will have the mental flexibility to face its culpability, but it never happens.
 

WI_Red

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So, when he elects to not run but anoints Ivanka and little Don on a ticket do they come out to The Time Is Now?
I am more convinced than ever he will run in 24. His pride will never allow him to accept defeat, and his complete slide into delusion now means he is convinced he did not lose. No one in GOP leadership will tell him not to run publicly, and no one will primary him. If he is alive in 24 he will run 100%.
 

MrMarcello

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I am more convinced than ever he will run in 24. His pride will never allow him to accept defeat, and his complete slide into delusion now means he is convinced he did not lose. No one in GOP leadership will tell him not to run publicly, and no one will primary him. If he is alive in 24 he will run 100%.
I was just looking for a way to insert The Time Is Now.
 

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I am more convinced than ever he will run in 24. His pride will never allow him to accept defeat, and his complete slide into delusion now means he is convinced he did not lose. No one in GOP leadership will tell him not to run publicly, and no one will primary him. If he is alive in 24 he will run 100%.
This must be infuriating to DeSantis, since he would probably beat Biden if he could run. Instead, Trump will probably run and might choose him as his running mate - then lose, which would ice DeSantis' ambitions for another 4 years.
 

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InfiniteBoredom

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Incumbents very rarely lose. Trump was historically unpopular.
It’s generally true for the past few decades, however you still get the Ford, Johnson (did not run), Carter, H.W.B. And if we move further back to more politically volatile times like the few decades before the Civil War, as it is said to mirror the current division, then incumbents overwhelmingly failed to secure re-election, sometimes even renomination.

As bad as Trump was, the margin for victory was still only some 40k votes across a few states. If they succeed with their voting restrictions feckery, not unlikely that Ds would lose.
 

WI_Red

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It’s generally true for the past few decades, however you still get the Ford, Johnson (did not run), Carter, H.W.B. And if we move further back to more politically volatile times like the few decades before the Civil War, as it is said to mirror the current division, then incumbents overwhelmingly failed to secure re-election, sometimes even renomination.

As bad as Trump was, the margin for victory was still only some 40k votes across a few states. If they succeed with their voting restrictions feckery, not unlikely that Ds would lose.
I think it is going to come down to who manages voters apathy better: the “Trump is god” crowd or the “Trump is the antichrist” crowd.
 

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It’s generally true for the past few decades, however you still get the Ford, Johnson (did not run), Carter, H.W.B. And if we move further back to more politically volatile times like the few decades before the Civil War, as it is said to mirror the current division, then incumbents overwhelmingly failed to secure re-election, sometimes even renomination.

As bad as Trump was, the margin for victory was still only some 40k votes across a few states. If they succeed with their voting restrictions feckery, not unlikely that Ds would lose.
That's all true, but I still don't think anyone but Trump beats Biden. And I definitely don't think that's the case for 2024, because at that point it will still be the Party of Trump, except if Trump isn't running they're missing a big part of what makes Trump such an effective crypto-fascist feckface. Trump didn't create the current situation by any means, but he has been far more successful than anyone else in using it.

That said, I don't think Biden is running in 2024. I do think Trump will run, but I am not sure against whom. Harris probably thinks it's her, but I doubt it.
 

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That's all true, but I still don't think anyone but Trump beats Biden. And I definitely don't think that's the case for 2024, because at that point it will still be the Party of Trump, except if Trump isn't running they're missing a big part of what makes Trump such an effective crypto-fascist feckface. Trump didn't create the current situation by any means, but he has been far more successful than anyone else in using it.

That said, I don't think Biden is running in 2024. I do think Trump will run, but I am not sure against whom. Harris probably thinks it's her, but I doubt it.
Exactly. Anyone that isn't Trump will have a hard time whipping up the same kind of energy in the radicalized side of the Republican party, while its centrist (well, ish) part is anyway more apathetic (as centrists always are). Trump also had a weird kind of attraction to people that anyone else, especially career politicians, can only hope to get anywhere close to. Plus Republican infighting has become increasingly bloody and not everyone will come out of that mess cleanly like Trump (somehow!) did. Given the small margins of US elections, those little factors are very important, so I'd say that nothing is a foregone conclusion.
 

Sky1981

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Exactly. Anyone that isn't Trump will have a hard time whipping up the same kind of energy in the radicalized side of the Republican party, while its centrist (well, ish) part is anyway more apathetic (as centrists always are). Trump also had a weird kind of attraction to people that anyone else, especially career politicians, can only hope to get anywhere close to. Plus Republican infighting has become increasingly bloody and not everyone will come out of that mess cleanly like Trump (somehow!) did. Given the small margins of US elections, those little factors are very important, so I'd say that nothing is a foregone conclusion.
Trump is a selfish bastard, if he doesn't get the GOP nomination he'll make sure he'll run independent or to the very least retain his support and cry foul (instead of lending them to the GOP nominee)

Between the Democrats, GOP and and Independent Trump there's no way the D can lose. If Trump and GOP unites, then anything goes, Biden isn't exactly glowing, he's just a decent president. With covid growing and economic downfall looming due to the pandemic and another 3 years to smear campaign, not discounting that Biden could be too old for 2024. I believe the next POTUS is yet to be seen, it still depends alot on who has the guts to go up against the brute.
 

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That said, I don't think Biden is running in 2024. I do think Trump will run, but I am not sure against whom. Harris probably thinks it's her, but I doubt it.
It will be interesting to know who runs from the Democrats. I don’t see anything that sorta elevates Harris as the clear front runner. I get a feeling that the bench strength is still an issue which the D’s aren’t trying to address.
 

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Really confused as to why ya'll think it won't be Harris as the nominee if Biden decides not to run. The optics of the party elite shoving aside a black woman for what would likely be another old white guy would guarantee a GOP win. Even primarying her would be a super bad look.
 

Ramshock

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Really confused as to why ya'll think it won't be Harris as the nominee if Biden decides not to run. The optics of the party elite shoving aside a black woman for what would likely be another old white guy would guarantee a GOP win. Even primarying her would be a super bad look.
I think Harris running is a legit prospect depending on Joes health
 

WI_Red

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Until then something has to be done about Munchkin and Cinema
Manchin is who Manchin is. Don't think any other D could win that seat as WV has completely flipped politically and he is a holdover. Sinema is gone in 24 in my opinion. She will either retire or get primaried. She is not acting like someone who wants to stay in the Senate. Kelly polls much better than she does.
 

Rob

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Really confused as to why ya'll think it won't be Harris as the nominee if Biden decides not to run. The optics of the party elite shoving aside a black woman for what would likely be another old white guy would guarantee a GOP win. Even primarying her would be a super bad look.
What’s the perception of her in America?
 

Scarlett Dracarys

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Really confused as to why ya'll think it won't be Harris as the nominee if Biden decides not to run. The optics of the party elite shoving aside a black woman for what would likely be another old white guy would guarantee a GOP win. Even primarying her would be a super bad look.
It would be another Hillary situation. The lack of a stereotypical candidate as competition is why Trump won. If it was another white guy we might not have had to deal with the whole Trump saga. A lot of Democrats didn't go out to vote and that might happen again if Harris is the nominee.
 

matherto

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Really confused as to why ya'll think it won't be Harris as the nominee if Biden decides not to run. The optics of the party elite shoving aside a black woman for what would likely be another old white guy would guarantee a GOP win. Even primarying her would be a super bad look.
It’s a GOP win then but for the other side of those optics.

EVERY right winger is gonna go all out to stop a black woman from being President.

And she’s not hugely popular with progressives either is she?
 

WI_Red

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What’s the perception of her in America?
Meh? She is way more out in front than any of the other VP's I can remember, but on the flip side they are not really giving her any "big wins" to build her resume.

It would be another Hillary situation. The lack of a stereotypical candidate as competition is why Trump won. If it was another white guy we might not have had to deal with the whole Trump saga. A lot of Democrats didn't go out to vote and that might happen again if Harris is the nominee.
Hillary was a special situation in that she was reviled by a huge part of the country, regardless of party. I am not commenting if she deserved it, only that she was a singularly horrible candidate from a basic "do you think this person is not an ass" perspective. I would argue the flipside, that pretty much any other candidate, even Harris, would have beaten Trump in 16. Hell, if Hillary had not run a disaster of a campaign she likely would have won. I'll address the second point down below.

It’s a GOP win then but for the other side of those optics.

EVERY right winger is gonna go all out to stop a black woman from being President.

And she’s not hugely popular with progressives either is she?
EVERY right winger is going to go all out to stop whoever the Dem candidate is. There is no way that is going to rile up the racist GOP base any more than Trump did in 20, so what it comes down to is can the Dems turn out like they did in 20. If the Dems dump Harris for an old white dude I wonder if the AA community comes out in force like they did in 20. As for progressives, it doesn't really matter if is Harris or Beto or Castro or blah blah blah as there is not a chance that a Harris replacement would be any more progressive than her.
 

Raoul

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Really confused as to why ya'll think it won't be Harris as the nominee if Biden decides not to run. The optics of the party elite shoving aside a black woman for what would likely be another old white guy would guarantee a GOP win. Even primarying her would be a super bad look.
It would be an open race imo. Harris is becoming worryingly unpopular, which isn't helped by the fact that she comes across as a bit of a policy lightweight who has already made a mess of her first big task on border policy, and seems to have now been shunted away to avoid further distractions to Biden's agenda.

 
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Maticmaker

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From a distance (i.e. over the other side of the pond) it looked to me like the Democrats won last time because they squeezed every ounce of advantage out of the 'postal ballot playbook to get their vote out/counted and caught Trump and GOP napping. So surely the question in 2024 will be, what in the intervening period have the Republicans learned or added to their game in this area?
Or can they ever win, i.e. if everybody who is eligible to vote does vote, in the crucial 'swing areas' because there are more 'natural' democrats than there are republicans in the US?
Just asking!
 

WI_Red

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From a distance (i.e. over the other side of the pond) it looked to me like the Democrats won last time because they squeezed every ounce of advantage out of the 'postal ballot playbook to get their vote out/counted and caught Trump and GOP napping. So surely the question in 2024 will be, what in the intervening period have the Republicans learned or added to their game in this area?
Or can they ever win, i.e. if everybody who is eligible to vote does vote, in the crucial 'swing areas' because there are more 'natural' democrats than there are republicans in the US?
Just asking!
What does this even mean?