I'd reached the same conclusion a few days ago. Putin wants to bring back the glory of the Soviet Union but all he's going to end up with is the Soviet economy.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik @Rood and Imran @Annihilate Now! start with the good news by celebrating Manchester United Women's emphatic FA Cup win over Spurs at Wembley and the future of manager Marc Skinner.
Then it's the bad news and the ever worsening form of our Men with losses to Arsenal and Palace.
Finally the main debate - ETH Out now or keep him until the end of the season - if not longer. Are you Team Nik or Team Imran?
If that happens, they will have nothing to lose in pressing the nuke button.
This makes me happy
Pressing the button is a pure loss scenario. No chance of gain. Through all of what's happened so far and what is yet to come, Russia has a chance of gain and it is achievable by standing down.
That professor's scenario is a pure loss one though.
Oh, I imagine there will be a lot to do all over the country and there will be a lot of volunteering possibilities.
Zelenskyy’s recent speeches have already had a big focus on the rebuilding effort.
It's a pure loss of the kind nations have had before. Pressing the button is a pure loss in that it will 100% guaranteed wipe out your own civilization and country, and the survivors will probably know you're responsible.
No it's not, an end to sanctions can be negotiated. They're also still receiving €1bn a day from Europe for oil and gas and China are still tacitly supporting them, albeit very much at arm's length now.
They do, as they want to create propaganda that civilians are running to Russia and not west. That Russia saved them from Ukrainian neonazis that were shelling them.
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It might well be selection bias, but the more you read things and see video clips, the more it looks like the Russian military campaign is a totally disorganised mess.
We've all read about some ukranian army connections to neonazis in the past. Today I read that a famous portuguese neonazi is going to ukraine with a group of other neonazis to fight for Ukraine. I'm curious if this is happening in other countries. Definitely not the kind of publicity they want at this point.
They shouldn't let him in.
We are only seeing one side. Very few informations on UA losses. Russians are still advancing. If Kharkiv and Mariupol fall, that might be huge for their war effort. They'll stall eventually, but question is where and how long.
If they do, I'll have to root for the russians who face him and his buddies. These guys fit exactly what the russian propaganda is saying, absolute scum.
A pure loss scenario is when you have only a chance of loss or no loss, and no chance to gain.
Russia's economy going to shit because of Putin's war is one that still has a chance of gain despite the forecast. If his forces stand down and the sanctions are lifted the economy can recover. As we've seen in the past with Russia, even in the darkest times, their economy can bounce back relatively quickly,
They'll let him in. Look up Azov batallion.
I know about the Azov batallion.
They should. Wind him up and point him at some impossible to take position and then we'll never have to hear from him again.
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Advancing is not necessarily a good idea at this point...going further from your fuel and ammo supplies isn't where I'd want to be if I were a Russian soldier.
I was just saying that if they dont stand down and that professor's scenario materializes, Russia is sent back to Stone Age while the rest of the world moves on, they will have nothing to lose in pressing the nuke button. Far stretched, I know.
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Seems to be cutting off your nose to spite your face. Gas and oil are going to be their only major revenue sources, and they can't suddenly start shipping it to China. They don't have the pipelines or to convert it to LNH.
What they'll lose is the opportunity to go back to what they had...and having China at your back hardly puts you in the Stone Age anyway, it just means a massive and difficult reorganisation of their economy and little scope for growth.
The fact that they lost encrypted communications is amazing. I've seen a few pics of dubious origin of Russian pilots with Garmins for use as GPS in their planes, but there do seem to be more stories about the shoddy comms equipment the Russians are using more broadly. Hopefully the Ukrainians captured some of the secure comms equipment as well so it can be used against the Russians.Tweet
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And that's mostly correct but it does have one tiny flaw in that they would still have a chance to gain* by stepping back and reintegrating.
*Maybe not the gains they'd hoped for a couple of weeks ago.
Azov battalion is recruiting those people around Europe, so yes this happens not only in Portugal. And yes, sadly this is giving Russia some credibility.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...endence-on-russian-gas-by-almost-80-this-year
US look set to stop importing oil from Russia too.
How do you lose secure comms? Did the battery run out? Some of these I find hard to believe. They paint a picture of an army as if organised by several caf posters.
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Just read that bit
What kind of morons....Wouldn't be surprised if the strategic comms require GSM too. This is hilarious.
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A tiny sliver. One national guard battalion that isn't even regular army that has approximately 10% neo-nazi followers in its ranks.
Meanwhile, Russia has sent troops who have actually committed crimes against humanity instead of just having repugnant beliefs.
Yeah, which will drive up the price of oil, but the US only imports about 3-5% of its oil from Russia so it isn't a huge amount. That's why the US is trying to mend fences with Venezuela since they could increase capacity manyfold and replace Russia, but they are incompetent without outside help and can't under current sanctions.
I added follow-up tweets about their secure comms in my previous post. They basically disabled their ability to use them because they are morons.
God bless you for thinking there are no far right members in the Russian armed forces. I too hope Putin’s socialist regime wins this war!
If only there was a clear Zymbol we could Zee to indicate who the real faZcists are in thiZ war.
Imagine being an operator on the nato awacs flying on the Polish border and giggling over the abundance of ineptness shown in cleartext/ voice chatter that you actually don't need your 100m equipment to decode .
I'm sure there are, but some of these guys have been beating immigrants for years where I live (they even murdered an african student years ago), so there's an emotional connection.
If Putin starts doing that I am sure a few people within his inner circles will step up to the plate.
Macron today after his phone call with Putin.
The war in Ukraine is costly... getting $1B a day when the war is estimated to cost more than that a day.
https://www.consultancy.eu/news/7433/research-ukraine-war-costs-russian-military-20-billion-per-day
The only thing I'd disagree with about the contents of that thread is the comment that for the Russians "... time is likely on their side if they are will to endure the punishing sanctions and casualties".
Time is not on their side IMO. There are questions over how long they can finance their campaign at a huge cost per day, plus there will be growing unrest inside Russia over sanctions biting and troops arriving back in coffins, and all the while more defensive weapons and pro-Ukrainian fighters pour into the country.
Fair enough. I agree with the sentiment that these unsavoury elements do Ukraine no favours especially from an outside perspective, but as someone who has spent years in the country, in the areas where the Ukrainian resistance (and therefore the collaboration with the Nazis) led by Bandera is most invoked, I’ve never met or seen anyone celebrating Nazism in public. People give over due prominence to Azov and other right-wing fringe elements in Ukraine.
The history is somewhat complicated, but in the same way Russia has completely corrupted the slur of labelling someone a “Nazi”, in Ukraine the use of some Nazi symbology by some groups has become completely devoid of its original meaning too. It has become a sort of distillation of anti-Russian/-Soviet/-colonial sentiment from the oppression around WWII, more than any beliefs or understanding of German National Socialism.
Some of Philippe Sands’s books and the documentary he made touches on this.
He's wasting his time. Macron better not hope for any better with a mad man.
If he wants to focus on maintaining popularity at home ahead of the elections, it shouldn't be through talks. Also Putin already tried once to feck France up by pushing for Marine Le Pen in 2017, so no love lost there. Time to arm the Ukrainians with proper hardware now, Emmanuel.