Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Rams

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So Russian Gas is still being piped into the EU?
And we are paying?

Is that right
And through the Ukraine ironically enough. Actually, the supply chain of gas & oil is extremely complicated. It’s not black & white and without sufficient supply & reserves many countries & industries would not be able to fully operate leading to all kinds of expected & unexpected consequences.
My employer closed its Russian offices last week and put the employees on paid leave. What can you do.
 

GlastonSpur

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I've been looking at some YouTube alt-right channels. They're full of excuses for Putin's invasion. It goes to show that these American "patriots" (as they loudly like to proclaim themselves) support tyranny and dictatorship over genuine freedom and democracy.

But I guess we already knew that, their being part of the Trump-cult.
 

RedDevilQuebecois

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Came across this Twitter thread as China is now in the thick of things for discussion's sake.


The 7th tweet is the most interesting. The original Chinese scholar who did the analysis says that China has about 1-2 weeks to make a decision between either aligning for real with Putin or choosing their economic ties with the West and Asian democracies.
 

golden_blunder

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What could China supply that the Russians don't already have? The key problem for Russia in Ukraine is that they can't take the capital, can't remove the Ukrainian government, and can't conquer and annexe the whole of Ukraine... because they don't have the troops to do this. I don't see any equipment that China could supply that would change this.
Weaponry that’s not twenty years old? Particularly vehicles. Maybe MREs that aren’t nearly 10 years out of date?
 

GlastonSpur

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Essentially, he says that the Russian army in Northern Ukraine around Kyiv is totally fecked - scavenging for food and fuel, cut off from effective re-supply - and the Ukrainians can take their time hitting their tanks one by one.

This northern army is also short of ammunition, especially artillery ammunition ... which explains why Kyiv has only so far been hit mainly with longer range missiles etc.
 

GlastonSpur

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Weaponry that’s not twenty years old? Particularly vehicles. Maybe MREs that aren’t nearly 10 years out of date?
That wouldn't change the outcome. The basic equation is that Russia does not have enough troops to take Kyiv, nor remove the Ukrainian government, nor conquer and occupy Ukraine.

If Russia is seeking Chinese military aid, that would be a big indication that they they are losing this war,
 

Sir Matt

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Came across this Twitter thread as China is now in the thick of things for discussion's sake.


The 7th tweet is the most interesting. The original Chinese scholar who did the analysis says that China has about 1-2 weeks to make a decision between either aligning for real with Putin or choosing their economic ties with the West and Asian democracies.
I think the US will make this choice clear when they meet the Chinese in Rome this week (I think). Supplying weapons and supporting Putin's war will force a cleavage between the authoritarian world and the democratic world. The West, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand (among others) should make clear that they will work towards eliminating reliance on China for essentially anything if China decides to abet Putin's war. China likes to play both sides (warned the US about Russia's desire to exacerbate the Great Recession in 2008, told Russia that we knew they were invading and had asked China to help dissuade Putin), but they have to understand that continued growth/influence isn't guaranteed without the West. The West should also work to persuade TSMC and other chip manufacturers to duplicate their production facilities in Taiwan in the West because a war in Taiwan would cripple global microchip production and potentially lead to dependence on China.

My main worry is that Xi is very much like Putin in his revanchist aims and authoritarian domestic policies. He seems to want China to be the sole superpower rather than a potential competitor to the US. He also very much wants Taiwan under his thumb.
 

langster

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I've been looking at some YouTube alt-right channels. They're full of excuses for Putin's invasion. It goes to show that these American "patriots" (as they loudly like to proclaim themselves) support tyranny and dictatorship over genuine freedom and democracy.

But I guess we already knew that, their being part of the Trump-cult.
There's a video doing the rounds that says something along the lines of 'We went from strength and power to this'

Iit shows Trump (ironically at the NATO summit) where he pushes his way to the front of the leaders and flexes his suit and stands there in the most arrogant manner possible. It then shows Biden wearing a mask, I presume in hospital, helping a blind man (I think) walk somewhere, he then stops guiding him and looks confused, all this is aided by the three question marks photoshopped above his head.

Now I get Biden does make blunders and I think he is suffering from old age. But he is 80 years old. I also get people will pick at anything he does and jump on any mistake, real or percieved. What pisses me off the most is the Trump clip.

It's not strength he is showing, it's arrogance and disrespect. It's a lack of grace and class. It epitomises how most of the rest of the world sees the USA and it also displays all the traits most hate about the country. It's like a visual metaphor for how the USA treats the rest of the world at times.

Those that are posting this are confused as they seem to be Pro Russia and Pro Putin but are suggesting they want the USA to exert it's power, strength and dominance by intervening through it's mighty military power.

The mental gymnastics going through these people's heads must be exhausting.
 

GlastonSpur

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The BBC reports:

"Russia appears to have banned Instagram from operating in the country. In a tweet, NetBlocks confirmed that real-time data shows that Instagram is now restricted in Russia across multiple providers."

This will only lead to more Russians thinking: "If this 'special military operation' is going so well, how come our means of communication are being shut down?"
 

Rightnr

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If the below is true, it might somewhat explain Russia starting to look for ways to exit the war. Their economy has been crippled but more importantly, so has their ability to do anything about it.

The Russian stock market and Ruble will be interesting tomorrow.

 

Rams

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I think the US will make this choice clear when they meet the Chinese in Rome this week (I think). Supplying weapons and supporting Putin's war will force a cleavage between the authoritarian world and the democratic world. The West, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand (among others) should make clear that they will work towards eliminating reliance on China for essentially anything if China decides to abet Putin's war. China likes to play both sides (warned the US about Russia's desire to exacerbate the Great Recession in 2008, told Russia that we knew they were invading and had asked China to help dissuade Putin), but they have to understand that continued growth/influence isn't guaranteed without the West. The West should also work to persuade TSMC and other chip manufacturers to duplicate their production facilities in Taiwan in the West because a war in Taiwan would cripple global microchip production and potentially lead to dependence on China.

My main worry is that Xi is very much like Putin in his revanchist aims and authoritarian domestic policies. He seems to want China to be the sole superpower rather than a potential competitor to the US. He also very much wants Taiwan under his thumb.
The problem China has is that the country itself is made up of many different regions & cultures, Xi the communist party are scared of losing power and seeing the country break up. This is far more of a concern than being the World’s sole superpower. Their interest is far more in being the World’s economic superpower. The oppression is to keep the communist party in power and stop the breakup of China. A completely different perspective from Pootin. At least that’s how I see it.
 

langster

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If the below is true, it might somewhat explain Russia starting to look for ways to exit the war. Their economy has been crippled but more importantly, so has their ability to do anything about it.

The Russian stock market and Ruble will be interesting tomorrow.

Their stock market is staying closed for another week.
 

Raoul

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If the below is true, it might somewhat explain Russia starting to look for ways to exit the war. Their economy has been crippled but more importantly, so has their ability to do anything about it.

The Russian stock market and Ruble will be interesting tomorrow.

They've closed the stock market for yet another week. Just delaying the inevitable.
 

GlastonSpur

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Their stock market is staying closed for another week.
At this point we need to wonder if it will ever re-open whilst Putin stays in power.

It's the economic equivalent of shutting down Russian access to the internet: bad news must be swept under the carpet.
 

Raoul

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Interesting thread. Beyond erroneously saying the Taliban used to attack Soviet convoys (they didn't form until two years after the Soviets left), he could've probably reduced his thread by 80% by just saying the Russian advance in the north is fecked because of poor planning and logistics.
 

Rightnr

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Don't know this guy but this is brave if he's halfway as famous as the tweet claims. Although not sure if Russian can still watch YouTube.

 

sglowrider

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Came across this Twitter thread as China is now in the thick of things for discussion's sake.


The 7th tweet is the most interesting. The original Chinese scholar who did the analysis says that China has about 1-2 weeks to make a decision between either aligning for real with Putin or choosing their economic ties with the West and Asian democracies.
I doubt if China ever works that quickly. They have nothing to gain and more to lose if they make such quick decisions. Little to lose by sitting back.
 

Rightnr

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Mearsheimer is a decrepit old man who's so wedded to his simplistic theory of international security that he can't acknowledge basic facts about the whole situation. I think @Raoul posted an interview Isaac Chotiner did with him for the New Yorker where he looks incredibly stupid. He insists that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is "geopolitics!!!" and not imperialism. He also insists that Russia won't invade all of Ukraine, despite the fact that it is doing just that.

The Russians have been all over Mearsheimer's nuts because his view of realism posits that Russia should be guaranteed its sphere of influence, regardless of what the people around Russia believe. People in the Baltics, Ukraine, Poland, Belarus? Yeah, their freedom and sovereignty don't matter because they should be in Russia's sphere of influence.
Sounds like the typical view of a few enlightened users on here who keep saying Russia needs to have its share of the pie, even if that represents supposedly sovereign countries suffering under their corrupt and incompetent regime.

The best thing is popping in here from time to time trying to reeducate us because we're too blind to see it.
 

GlastonSpur

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The problem China has is that the country itself is made up of many different regions & cultures, Xi the communist party are scared of losing power and seeing the country break up. This is far more of a concern than being the World’s sole superpower. Their interest is far more in being the World’s economic superpower. The oppression is to keep the communist party in power and stop the breakup of China. A completely different perspective from Pootin. At least that’s how I see it.
I agree. But it's hard to be the world's economic superpower when, after many years of rapid growth, your income per capita is still ranked only 79th in the world.
 

Sir Matt

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Sounds like the typical view of a few enlightened users on here who keep saying Russia needs to have its share of the pie, even if that represents supposedly sovereign countries suffering under their corrupt and incompetent regime.

The best thing is popping in here from time to time trying to reeducate us because we're too blind to see it.
They let their anti-American/Western beliefs override any faults in their idyllic post-Soviet Russia.

Live look at them this weekend:

 

frostbite

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In Greece, it is a surprise that the far left supports Putin the fascist and nationalist! For many years now, people were saying that the far left and the far right are practically the same thing. I couldn't believe it, but now it seems more and more reasonable. Putin has nothing to do with a socialist ideology, so why does the left support him?
 

The Firestarter

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In Greece, it is a surprise that the far left supports Putin the fascist and nationalist! For many years now, people were saying that the far left and the far right are practically the same thing. I couldn't believe it, but now it seems more and more reasonable. Putin has nothing to do with a socialist ideology, so why does the left support him?
Because they are morons.
 

GlastonSpur

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In Greece, it is a surprise that the far left supports Putin the fascist and nationalist! For many years now, people were saying that the far left and the far right are practically the same thing. I couldn't believe it, but now it seems more and more reasonable. Putin has nothing to do with a socialist ideology, so why does the left support him?
I think you answered your own question.

The extremes of the left-right spectrum - aside from the fact that many things cannot in truth be reduced to this flat, 2D perspective - share a common contempt for democracy, which of course means that they cleave to authoritarian "strong men". Incidentally, it's not a co-incidence that it's a always a "strong man".
 

carvajal

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In Greece, it is a surprise that the far left supports Putin the fascist and nationalist! For many years now, people were saying that the far left and the far right are practically the same thing. I couldn't believe it, but now it seems more and more reasonable. Putin has nothing to do with a socialist ideology, so why does the left support him?
In Spain they(Podemos) do not support him (publicly) although they were not happy with the shipment of weapons and in the European Parliament they did not support the increase in sanctions.
In this case is all motivated by the links they have with Venezuela. They also reject NATO, I suppose because of some kind of nostalgia with the Soviet Union.
 

Wibble

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There's an argument to be made that we are already at war with Russia and the continued use of Article 5 as a hypothetical red line, only incentivizes Putin to double down on carnage inside Ukraine, as long as he doesn't attack NATO territory. This is in my view a shortcoming of Article 5 in that it can be used by an enemy force to prevent NATO from doing anything while WMDs are used against civilians. That wasn't its intent and so NATO powers need to take a look at ways to do more.
Article 5 also allows us not to storm into Ukraine and maybe trigger MAD.
 

GlastonSpur

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https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/ru...-ukraine-invasion/7CLVFYOOO3AGVAJSUNZLP26WB4/

Of which one extract - as we see Russia's military impending defeat in Ukraine - is:

"Watching the Russian military fall on its face these past few weeks, I've been reminded of a snarky tweet American Senator Ted Cruz sent in May of last year.

Cruz, a conservative Republican, was comparing two military recruitment ads, one of them from his own country and the other from Russia.

The Russian military's ad showcased buff men doing push-ups and aiming guns, while the American one focused on the US army's diversity. It featured the story of a female soldier who was raised by two mothers.

Cruz admired the Russian ad, and expressed contempt for the American one.

"Holy crap. Perhaps a woke, emasculated military is not the best idea," he said.