Fired? More like woodchipped.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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So, if the cited Komsomolskaya Pravda figures are true, so far the Russians have 26,000 killed or injured. This apparently excludes DNR and LNR troop losses. It also excludes those captured, surrendered, or deserted.
If we round it up to 30,000 now out of action to take account of these latter, that's an average rate of close to 10,000 per week. So in another month it could rise to 70,000. I don't see how Russia can sustain their invasion for too much longer.
If we round it up to 30,000 now out of action to take account of these latter, that's an average rate of close to 10,000 per week. So in another month it could rise to 70,000. I don't see how Russia can sustain their invasion for too much longer.
The problem with talking about winners and losers here is that the war is only being fought in the defender’s country and they have nothing staked on them winning it that they otherwise wouldn’t have had without the war.
The war can go terribly for Russia, they can pay a high cost for it, they can be somewhat embarrassed, yet they will still likely achieve the minimum of their war goals, which is to further hamstring, partition and impede the Westernisation and democratisation of an independent Ukraine.
This is what I feared would have happen less than a week into the war, when people were getting a bit giddy about Russia’s underwhelming performance. They never needed to take that more territory to subject Ukraine to severe castration. They can occupy the coast to the Black Sea and Sea of Azov and then just bed down there, whilst committing what are essentially terrorist acts on targets within range under the guise of “war”.
That’s not a win for Ukraine, but there was virtually no way for Ukraine to win this. How do you win against terrorists, who are willing to sacrifice their economic strength and lives of their citizens to damage your country?
The only long term win for Ukraine here is Putin causing the Russian state to self-destruct, potentially given them better security in the future with a more benign leader. That’s by no means certain either.
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If it's genuine, as apparently it is, then it's more signs of unrest within the Russian military - I reckon that information has been deliberately leaked.
If the Russian army really tries to attack Odessa head-on from the sea, oh boy, Omaha Beach would look like a sandbox compared to that.
I wouldn't say a need for a large scale offensive, but I think the best way to put a quick end to the war would be the Ukrainian army drawing the bulk of the Russian force in a very vulnerable area where the latter can be picked off and pounded until being forced to surrender. One big battle to cripple and humiliate the invading army beyond repair. That is the key moment that decided the fate of the Indochina War with a massive French defeat in 1954.
Don't ever talk about de-Nazifying anything ever again after this, cnuty Vlad.
Indeed, there are no traditional victories against nuclear powers, only political change at best (unlikely, and the other side can't push too hard for it as it could be seen as an existential threat and therefore lead to nuclear escalation), and unsatisfactory agreements at worst (discounting scenarios of defeat).
Russia can't be cut off from resupply routes in the east, as their conquered territories on that side directly borden on Russia itself or the sea.
Only if the war goes on as-is. If Russia dig in at their conquered areas and otherwise mostly focus on artillery attacks, the rate at which they lose soldiers could drop significantly.
The Russians don't have the resources to continue fighting much longer, much less hold any existing territory inside Ukraine. The Ukrainians and NATO know this, which is why they aren't likely to capitulate to any Russian demands. If anything, they are incentivized to double down and fight harder because they see a clear strategy to winning the standoff.
Or the rate could rise significantly, as ever more sophisticated weapons pour into Ukraine.
Being on the defensive is a significant advantage in terms of minimizing casualties, as long as not under air or artillery attack.
Any estimates of Ukrainian casualties?
Yet again US intelligence is absolutely spot on, as they have been with everything in this war. They must have some brilliant sources in the Kremlin.
US estimate 2,000-4,000 killed by 9 March
Ukrainian Government state 1,300 killed by 12 March
Slipped in an extra phone # into the "Top advisors" Whatsapp group
Putin will never admit defeat. I hope I’m wrong, but I can see him dropping a nuke on a city to force them into a surrender.
Does that include civilians?
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I was reading about the Yom Kippur war and this quote by Golda Meir caught my eye:
No doubt the Ukrainians were thinking among the same lines when they were being provoked in the Donbas, before the actual invasion. This was in a PBS article on February 23rd.
No doubt the Ukrainians were thinking among the same lines when they were being provoked in the Donbas, before the actual invasion. This was in a PBS article on February 23rd.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/r...ine-military-aggressions-as-a-pretext-for-war
No, military only.
Civilian:
Ukrainian Government - 3,000 killed by 16 March in Mariupol & Karkhiv only
UN - 925 killed by 20 March
I say the source named Spinnaker in Tom Clancy's novels is a real thing, to keep the back channels open in hopes of staving off disaster.
But what if Russia decide that it's enough (for example because they acknowledge they won't gain much more), and limit themselves to defending the Donbas and coasta; strip to the Crimea on the one hand, and bombing/shelling cities to weaken Ukraine on the other. Ukraine would have to switch to attacking the Russians to do something about that. Do they have the materials and capacity to do that? And wouldn't it reserve the rate of loss of life?
Wasn’t it Cardinal?
I don't think they can do that for much longer as well. Ultimately, they only have a finite amount of munitions. They could of course start using thermobaric weapons or WMDs, but the latter would have a cost since it would involve NATO responding from within Ukraine. I don't think Putin is suicidal. He is just trying to gain a few bargaining chips he can use to eventually negotiate his way out of this without looking like he gained nothing.
Not sure which war you're watching but there's pretty much no chance now of Kyiv ever being captured. There is more chance of Russian forces being encircled there than of them ever encirling Kyiv, they have been forced into the defensive and their massive "40 mile convoy" is currently being squeezed into a pocket upwards from Irpin/Bucha by well armed reinforcements pushing at them from the west.
The offensive on Kyiv may have already failed, the fact they haven't even taken Chernihiv to the NE is very telling, they've tried to bypass it but that just leaves them vunerable and they have been dealt with every time they try to push around it. Kyiv is safer today than any previous day in the war and that is likely to continue tomorrow. Russia doesn't appear to have anything else in the North to throw at it and they can't get their artillery close enough to "level" it. They would need Ukraine's eastern front to collapse but Kharkiv also appears to be safe, yes the city is a wreck but destroying civilian infrastructure does not help the Russian war effort, the opposite is true if anything. I'm not sure about Sumy, things look pretty rough there, but they have since day 1.
Mariupol will be sacrificed, it's horrific what is going on there but there is no chance of relief anytime soon. The only possible route in is apparently 100 miles or so of open land with no cover, it would be far to costly for Ukrainian forces to attempt it. It is incredible what the army is achieving there, right on the Russian border, completely surrounded with even the Russian Navy on one side, they still hold out. The cost when finally tallied up will be the stuff of nightmares, but they won't surrender it. Every day they hold on is a massive drain on Russia.
Odesa is safe as houses and Mykolaiv has also gone on the offensive now, poking back toward Kherson. Yes attacking is harder than defending but defending is also much harder when you're embedded in hostile territory with 100k civilians just itching to rip your throat out at the first opportunity.
Ukraine outnumbers Russia in terms of infantry, they train new recruits every day by the thousand and have volenteers still arriving. They will have almost unlimited supply coming in accross the western border as long as this war goes on. Whereas there are huge question marks as to how long Russia can keep this going, they are alraedy scraping the barrel, their reserves seem non-existant.
I don't know what the win/lose conditions are of this war but I suspect Russia will be the first to be making concessions at the negotiating table (before being told you know what).
Sorry if that's all overly optimistic, just based on what I'm seeing and reading. Sure its still early days though.
Whoops, right. I forgot that the CIA had many insiders in the Soviet Union/Russia in those novels. Cardinal is closer to the profile.
I don't how many of you are watchers of Mehdi Hasan, but he brought this interesting part in his show yesterday evening. The fact that Putin is a huge fan of that philosopher is extremely disconcerting, and we should have known that part years ago.
You are both right. Cardinal was a military aide and Spinnaker was a politician
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Quoting cos it really is a must-read.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-edf7240a9d990e7e3e32f82ca351dede
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I think he would have to do so tbh.
Awesome!
Yeah I don't know but Katchanovski is impeccably well credentialed and seems as knowledgeable in this conflict as any outside of military commands.
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Interesting thread.
Yep I am with you on this.
I just think if Zelensky does not get 'public approval' for the eventual deal (and I put that in quotes as I think what constitutes public approval is not certain), there is a danger he is outflanked. I don't think Zelensky could simply hand over Crimea on his own, or even with Parliamentary approval.
Yeah, good read, it's good to leave the abstract of the detached overview.
Medvezhonok’s precious thoughts - like an Andrew Ridgeley single. Or, more appropriately, a Dmitry Little solo comedy show without Vladimir Large.
I don’t think people realise just how important this reporting is. Nearly everything you have seen from real journalists from Mariupol in the last couple of weeks is from these guys and the AP wire. All that footage on the BBC, Channel 4 and CNN; all those pictures in the papers and online; nearly all of it has come from these few people and been syndicated. They should win every prize going in journalism and war reporting this year. Absolute heroes.
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Reads like someone who's slept through the last three weeks, or just a Russki propagandist.
"Russian & separatist forces already took control over most of #Donbass in its borders before Donbas war in 2014"
- Eh? They didn't take over most of the Donbas even after the 2014 war.
" #Zelensky already conceded to #Russian demand of neutrality "
- No he hasn't.
"#Putin threatened that failure to accept these demands would mean capitulation or even end of #Ukrainian state. 7/ "
- He's in no position to make such demands and I'm not sure why anyone would take anything Putin says seriously in the first place.
"#Zelensky tries to prolong talks with #Russia because he apparently believes in intervention by NATO military forces, such as no-fly zone in #Ukraine, even though this would mean NATO's war with Russia & possible nuclear war. 8/"
- This just sounds like an idiotic take to me. Zelensky knows full well NATO's position on non-intervention, he doesn't beg for it because he believes he'll ever get it, its his job to maximise pressure on the rest of the world any way he can.