Said it two months ago before the window opened that the signs were already visible with Murtough being given the responsibility of being a footballing director. Objectivity is a great barometer to assess change. Woodwards lack of strategic direction is an exact replica of the club's guidance under the hand of Murtough who seemingly comes across as being ETH employee rather than someone who's more authoritative.
A poor summer should without question throw his suitability for the job into the air.
I think it goes back well before that - principally, the horrible mismanagement of the post-Ole part of last season. But above all the impossibility of connecting the dots of what he has and hasn't done into something you could plausibly assume is some sort of plan. Main elements are:
1. Decision to go with an interim manager for the remainder of last season, and take the time to find a permanent successor. The benefit is you have a wider field of choice and a better process for filling a key position. The downside is that a defined interim has a much harder time getting the team to perform, and there are even fewer candidates available. So, the key question you have to answer is, do you already mostly have the team you're going to proceed with, or are you more in a rebuild place? If it's the latter, it's not crucial to finish the season well and it is actually of some advantage to you if the limitations of the squad become plain. In that case, it would make sense to hire someone like Ralf Rangnick, who's a clear-headed analyst of team-building and an outspoken man, but doesn't have the greatest credentials when it comes to making a dysfunctional team good in a hurry, and on a pragmatic basis. If you think the former, you would probably be better off with someone focused on immediate short term results, a pragmatic motivator. Murtough hired Ralf Rangnick.
2. January window. Again, this follows from the same question. If you think you largely have your squad, and they're in the kind of trouble we were in January, then it's crucial to do what you can to prop things up. If you think you're rebuilding, then it may make sense not to jump in but conserve funds. Murtough did nothing, and motivated that wit the need to conserve funds for the new manager.
3. Perception and morale. If you're going to proceed with the same core, you want to use the remainder of last season to build some confidence, make some progress. The last thing you want is to come out of it with a general perception (including in the squad) that they're shit, and not up to it. If you're going to tear things up, then it's different - you'll want things made clear. Murtough chose to allow Rangnick to publicly eviscerate the squad on a number of occasions.
4. Hiring Erik Ten Hag.
5. Transfer preparations. If you aim to implement a clear transfer strategy in such a situation, you use the time to prepare and establish some clear targets and priorities and how to pursue them. Murtough made it plain enough he's not really trying to do that. Instead, it's all about waiting for the new manager.
6. General strategy. In May/June, it became apparent that the club is not proceeding on the basis of assuming "open heart surgery" was necessary, but on the contrary sticking with the world-view of a year before: We have a talented squad, let's build on that and get more out of what we have. So, either that's Murtough's view, or he's unable to persuade the board to do what he thinks. In any case, he can obviously live with that as a basis for operations-
7. Transfer window. The bottom line is we're being turned down by pretty much every top level prospect, we're as slow and inefficient as ever in moving players out and transfer targets are seemingly mostly limited to players ETH knows directly. There's no sign of any strategy or longer-term thinking. Richard Arnold talks to fans in a pub and stresses how it's the manager's job to sign players, and they will back him - as if that's everything anybody could possibly want from upper management.
So, Murtough has made important calls that would make sense if the club was prepared to go to drastic action, but which were at worst catastrophic if it isn't. Currently he is trying to implement an approach that is severely compromised by his own previous actions. It is possible that he made those decisions because he saw the need for radical change, but that he was subsequently beaten down by the board and forced to change course. In which case he has failed in his job - as well as made very big decisions that would only have made sense if the club's fundamental strategy was a different one than it now is.
But I think there's a far more plausible explanation, which more easily explains everything he has and hasn't done: He doesn't really have an independent answer to what the squad needs or how the club should approach this, he doesn't have an ambition to encapsulate an overall football vision that guides transfers and key appointments and against which the progress the manager makes is judged, he hadn't a clear idea of what needed to be achieved last season after Ole was sacked or how that would impact down the road. hence, he lacked the expertise to correctly assess Rangnicks prospects as an interim, and how that would play out with the squad. He didn't feel he could make calls on January transfers - to him, that came down to do I throw my money at Ralf, or do I keep my money for the permanent guy. He didn't understand how Rangnick's public candidness would impact on the squad and results and general perception, so he didn't put his foot down. He just let Rangnick's recommendations evaporate because he didn't know what to do with them. He didn't prime the organisation and lay down the strategy for a transfer offensive because he didn't think he needed to.
It just boils down to this: He really hoped Ralf Rangnick would make things a bit better, and now he really hopes Erik Ten Hag will put things right. Because he knows nobody else will.
Of course we can't know from the outside, but this is at least IMO the explanation that is by far the easiest to square with what we can observe.
