Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Red Rash

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Russia's Revenue from O&G

Makes sense in the short term since prices elevated so much.

It would be interesting to know how this will look in the next 6 months considering prices have begun to decline and Russia is no longer giving oil to Europe. Putin said recently they may turn the oil back on to Europe which suggests to me that there may be economic issues they need to fix.

It would also be interesting to see how other industries in Russia have fared in the same timeframe as I imagine other than oil and gas almost every other industry has been hit badly
 

VorZakone

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I wonder whether Western officials will eventually corroborate or somewhat confirm Ukraine's own reported numbers on Russians killed in action. They've been staking quite some PR on these daily updated numbers and if it turns out their numbers are widely off the mark that would reflect badly. Anyway, 65,000 is a staggering number.

 

Simbo

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I wonder whether Western officials will eventually corroborate or somewhat confirm Ukraine's own reported numbers on Russians killed in action. They've been staking quite some PR on these daily updated numbers and if it turns out their numbers are widely off the mark that would reflect badly. Anyway, 65,000 is a staggering number.

I think everyone expects Ukraine to exaggerate the numbers and understand why, so I don't think it would reflect that badly...

However if you look at their claims of vehicle and equipment losses vs what Onyx has been able to visually confirm, they all seem very plausible, so I'd expect the same for the death tally. There has been very little "propaganda" published by Ukrainian gov that can be debunked.
 

Beans

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I wonder whether Western officials will eventually corroborate or somewhat confirm Ukraine's own reported numbers on Russians killed in action. They've been staking quite some PR on these daily updated numbers and if it turns out their numbers are widely off the mark that would reflect badly. Anyway, 65,000 is a staggering number.

There was a supposed leaked Russian document that said 48,000 were dead, and the Uranian count was at 51,000, which suggests it's pretty accurate.
 

dove

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I wonder whether Western officials will eventually corroborate or somewhat confirm Ukraine's own reported numbers on Russians killed in action. They've been staking quite some PR on these daily updated numbers and if it turns out their numbers are widely off the mark that would reflect badly. Anyway, 65,000 is a staggering number.

Some of the "independent" Russian media reported a few days ago of over 90k "irrecoverable losses".

 

RoyH1

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Some of the "independent" Russian media reported a few days ago of over 90k "irrecoverable losses".

I'm not sure what they define as irrecoverable losses. Through many conflicts (WW1, WW2), Russia has almost always had losses that would break another country, but they keep on fighting and bringing on fresh recruits.
I'm well aware of Russian's demographic implosion, but 90k losses is not absolutely irrecoverable for a country of 146 million in a fight to the bitter end. Yes, replacing them, training them is going to be extremely hard, but Russia has pulled it off before. Just saying.
 

Simbo

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I'm not sure what they define as irrecoverable losses. Through many conflicts (WW1, WW2), Russia has almost always had losses that would break another country, but they keep on fighting and bringing on fresh recruits.
I'm well aware of Russian's demographic implosion, but 90k losses is not absolutely irrecoverable for a country of 146 million in a fight to the bitter end. Yes, replacing them, training them is going to be extremely hard, but Russia has pulled it off before. Just saying.
Well its not a fight to the bitter end, nothing of the sort. There is no good reason for Russia to invade in the first place, never mind 1 day longer, they can end this at any time and get on with life. Its 90k losses for literally nothing. They also had allies in WW1/2, trade partners, materials flooding in by the million of tonnes. Not really comparable.
 

Kaush949

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Makes sense in the short term since prices elevated so much.

It would be interesting to know how this will look in the next 6 months considering prices have begun to decline and Russia is no longer giving oil to Europe. Putin said recently they may turn the oil back on to Europe which suggests to me that there may be economic issues they need to fix.

It would also be interesting to see how other industries in Russia have fared in the same timeframe as I imagine other than oil and gas almost every other industry has been hit badly
Why Russia stands to gain most from OPEC+ oil production cuts
 

Organic Potatoes

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I'm not sure what they define as irrecoverable losses. Through many conflicts (WW1, WW2), Russia has almost always had losses that would break another country, but they keep on fighting and bringing on fresh recruits.
I'm well aware of Russian's demographic implosion, but 90k losses is not absolutely irrecoverable for a country of 146 million in a fight to the bitter end. Yes, replacing them, training them is going to be extremely hard, but Russia has pulled it off before. Just saying.
It isn’t losses they can’t recover from, it’s losses that won’t be recovered.
“Irrecoverable losses” is a category that includes servicemen who were killed, went missing, died from their wounds or were disabled and cannot return to military service.
edit: though one could argue if those were their best troops it would be impossible to recover from in the near-to-mid term.
 

RoyH1

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Well its not a fight to the bitter end, nothing of the sort. There is no good reason for Russia to invade in the first place, never mind 1 day longer, they can end this at any time and get on with life. Its 90k losses for literally nothing. They also had allies in WW1/2, trade partners, materials flooding in by the million of tonnes. Not really comparable.
For us and any other sane person on planet Earth. Unfortunately it's Putin and his cronies calling the shots, and for them stopping the war now would be an unbearable humiliation.
 

Simbo

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For us and any other sane person on planet Earth. Unfortunately it's Putin and his cronies calling the shots, and for them stopping the war now would be an unbearable humiliation.
Very true, and unfortunately, the Russian people for the most part don't realise its all for nothing.
 

NotThatSoph

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NAFO, North Atlantic Fellas Organization, is some sort of troll/shitposting movement dedicated to counter Russian misinformation and propaganda online. It has made some waves, been mentioned in big media outlets and has support from political commentators, politicians and military people, Ukranian and American. Turns out the guy who started it all is a nazi, which is pretty bad optics. There's quite a bit of drama going on online now about whether or not to support him.

 

nimic

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NAFO, North Atlantic Fellas Organization, is some sort of troll/shitposting movement dedicated to counter Russian misinformation and propaganda online. It has made some waves, been mentioned in big media outlets and has support from political commentators, politicians and military people, Ukranian and American. Turns out the guy who started it all is a nazi, which is pretty bad optics. There's quite a bit of drama going on online now about whether or not to support him.

Never heard of them.
 

stefan92

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NAFO, North Atlantic Fellas Organization, is some sort of troll/shitposting movement dedicated to counter Russian misinformation and propaganda online. It has made some waves, been mentioned in big media outlets and has support from political commentators, politicians and military people, Ukranian and American. Turns out the guy who started it all is a nazi, which is pretty bad optics. There's quite a bit of drama going on online now about whether or not to support him.

So a Polish Nazi hates Russia and shitposts against them? This is news now? Of course the historic right wing who hate Russia is involved in every action against them, obviously some of the most active people arguing and acting against Russia will be Nazis.
 

Mihai

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I'm not sure what they define as irrecoverable losses. Through many conflicts (WW1, WW2), Russia has almost always had losses that would break another country, but they keep on fighting and bringing on fresh recruits.
I'm well aware of Russian's demographic implosion, but 90k losses is not absolutely irrecoverable for a country of 146 million in a fight to the bitter end. Yes, replacing them, training them is going to be extremely hard, but Russia has pulled it off before. Just saying.
The definition is in the tweet.
 

groovyalbert

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At this point what do Russians really have to lose by taking to the streets? You're being thrown into the slaughterhouse either way. When contrasted with what's going on in Iran it's mad how complicit the public appear despite literally seeing their sons, brothers and fathers offered up like pawns. This is especially true for those who have already left Russia, where is their condemnation? Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems to be a pretty muted response to the mobilization/drafting of untrained and ill-prepared citizens.
 

NotThatSoph

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Never heard of them.
So a Polish Nazi hates Russia and shitposts against them? This is news now? Of course the historic right wing who hate Russia is involved in every action against them, obviously some of the most active people arguing and acting against Russia will be Nazis.
Mentioned in outlets like The Economist, Wall Street Journal and Politico, supported by Adam Kinzinger and the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. President and prime minister of Estonia, American major generals, etc. etc. That's why it's news. It's not like it matters in the grand scheme of things, but it is news.

Just some usual hey look some guys are bad too stuff. Was it even relevant to this thread?
Is it less relevant than all the posts about random Russians and Russian media people saying stuff?
 

The United

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Because I clicked on that tweet and didn't find any remotely direct relevance to this thread. Did we post any content from those guys here and form our opinions on it?

Do you think it is relevant to this thread? If so, how? I mean, other than yeah, there are some right-wing nuts-hating people around.
 

NotThatSoph

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Because I clicked on that tweet and didn't find any remotely direct relevance to this thread. Did we post any content from those guys here and form our opinions on it?

Do you think it is relevant to this thread? If so, how? I mean, other than yeah, there are some right-wing nuts-hating people around.
There were several posts about this absolute nobody: https://www.brusselstimes.com/271089/the-most-hated-russian-tourist-in-europe

When it happened. When she had to leave Austria. When she moved back to Russia. That's noteworthy, but not this? It's relevant to this thread because it happened, because it's a moderately big Internet thing about the war and because famous people and the Ukranian state have commented on it. How is it not relevant?
 

The United

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There were several posts about this absolute nobody: https://www.brusselstimes.com/271089/the-most-hated-russian-tourist-in-europe

When it happened. When she had to leave Austria. When she moved back to Russia. That's noteworthy, but not this? It's relevant to this thread because it happened, because it's a moderately big Internet thing about the war and because famous people and the Ukranian state have commented on it. How is it not relevant?
Wait, what? The group wrote that article or/and framed the girl?

Or are you saying that the article is as relevant as your tweet, which says there are Nazi nuts in the Eastern Europe hating Russians and talking shit about them online to this thread?
 
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