Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

frostbite

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What if Russia in 2014 actually decided to support Ukraine, build a friendly relationship with them, and help Ukraine be admitted into the EU? Ukraine would actually become one of the closest Russian allies, only if Russia behaved differently. And actually there was no real reason for Russia not to do that, they wouldn't lose anything by supporting a european path for Ukraine. Russia could make a lot of money selling gas and everyone would be happy. It was really stupid they decided to violently subjugate Ukraine instead, there was no real gain for Russia, whatever the outcome of this. It is not like Russia lacked space or resources. They only managed to alienate many countries.
 

Simbo

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What if Russia in 2014 actually decided to support Ukraine, build a friendly relationship with them, and help Ukraine be admitted into the EU? Ukraine would actually become one of the closest Russian allies, only if Russia behaved differently. And actually there was no real reason for Russia not to do that, they wouldn't lose anything by supporting a european path for Ukraine. Russia could make a lot of money selling gas and everyone would be happy. It was really stupid they decided to violently subjugate Ukraine instead, there was no real gain for Russia, whatever the outcome of this. It is not like Russia lacked space or resources. They only managed to alienate many countries.
Oh its always been in Putin's power to make Russia a prosperous country, never been in his interests though. He even did the hard part very quickly, getting control of the corruption and was lauded by the west. He then just took it to a whole new level.
 

the hea

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There have now been 2 sightings of the Israeli made Amir MRAPs in Ukraine. Did Israel finally answer the call?


 

The Firestarter

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Probably a question for the military historians but what other weapons system has turned the tide on a conflict in such a way...save for the manhattan project which didn't turn the tide but sped up the inevitable, I think its the proximity fuze in the AA artillery during WW2. Overnight the Axis losses of aircraft increased by orders of magnitude. Also, the Stinger missile during the first Afghan War.
 

Raoul

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Probably a question for the military historians but what other weapons system has turned the tide on a conflict in such a way...save for the manhattan project which didn't turn the tide but sped up the inevitable, I think its the proximity fuze in the AA artillery during WW2. Overnight the Axis losses of aircraft increased by orders of magnitude. Also, the Stinger missile during the first Afghan War.
The advantage of taking Kherson is they can get to Crimea with them a it easier than before. If they take all of Kherson they will be in fantastic shape.

 

Demyanenko_square_jaw

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Another one is that Ukraine is now an eternal enemy of Russia. It wasn't like that before 2014.
These affected generations will never forgive most russians, but as someone with family from/in both countries, i would certainly hope that the future goes down a path where eternal enemy is something that can be avoided. Ideally Putin will fall and Russia will slowly democratize, hand over war criminals/punish those complicit at state level and pay massive reparations, setting the groundwork for an eventual relationship as Germany and their WW2 allies have with the rest of Europe today. of course it's far too early to talk about such things, and could easily end up much worse.
 

Cheimoon

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What if Russia in 2014 actually decided to support Ukraine, build a friendly relationship with them, and help Ukraine be admitted into the EU? Ukraine would actually become one of the closest Russian allies, only if Russia behaved differently. And actually there was no real reason for Russia not to do that, they wouldn't lose anything by supporting a european path for Ukraine. Russia could make a lot of money selling gas and everyone would be happy. It was really stupid they decided to violently subjugate Ukraine instead, there was no real gain for Russia, whatever the outcome of this. It is not like Russia lacked space or resources. They only managed to alienate many countries.
I mentioned something like that a while ago as well. Another advantage for Russia is that they thus could have had a good and close relationship with the EU, which would have given Russia the geopolitical influence it craves and largely negated the need for a NATO - instead of the exact opposite that's happened now.
 

4bars

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Yes, NATO was half dead, north stream 2 was about to bypass ukraine that was gauging russia for the right of pass of gas and oil, organizing olympic games after decades, being on the G8, tightening economic reationships with europe

I guess it was to rainbowy for ex soviet kgb guys
 

Beans

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Probably a question for the military historians but what other weapons system has turned the tide on a conflict in such a way...save for the manhattan project which didn't turn the tide but sped up the inevitable, I think its the proximity fuze in the AA artillery during WW2. Overnight the Axis losses of aircraft increased by orders of magnitude. Also, the Stinger missile during the first Afghan War.
Radar was big. That's an interesting question, I'd be interested to see a documentary about it. Most people are killed by small arms, it might just be the modern rifle.
 

calodo2003

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Probably a question for the military historians but what other weapons system has turned the tide on a conflict in such a way...save for the manhattan project which didn't turn the tide but sped up the inevitable, I think its the proximity fuze in the AA artillery during WW2. Overnight the Axis losses of aircraft increased by orders of magnitude. Also, the Stinger missile during the first Afghan War.
Stinger would be my pick.
 

frostbite

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I mentioned something like that a while ago as well. Another advantage for Russia is that they thus could have had a good and close relationship with the EU, which would have given Russia the geopolitical influence it craves and largely negated the need for a NATO - instead of the exact opposite that's happened now.
Yes, I agree. Such a stupid move by Putin! Especially since a large part of the Ukrainian population were actually feeling positive towards Russians, many of them studied in Russian universities, spoke the language, had relatives in Russia, had a similar culture, and so on. A "Westernized" Ukraine would never be a danger for Russia, it would be an asset!
 

Siorac

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What if Russia in 2014 actually decided to support Ukraine, build a friendly relationship with them, and help Ukraine be admitted into the EU? Ukraine would actually become one of the closest Russian allies, only if Russia behaved differently. And actually there was no real reason for Russia not to do that, they wouldn't lose anything by supporting a european path for Ukraine. Russia could make a lot of money selling gas and everyone would be happy. It was really stupid they decided to violently subjugate Ukraine instead, there was no real gain for Russia, whatever the outcome of this. It is not like Russia lacked space or resources. They only managed to alienate many countries.
This reads like one of those 'could the Nazis have won WW2?' hypotheticals, where someone outlines a path to victory that essentially requires the Nazis to not be Nazis at all.

Of course it would have been more sensible to do what you suggest. But that requires Russia to not be the actual, existing Russia. Peaceful, mutually beneficial cooperation without relying on strength and fear to keep the 'partner' in line? That's gibberish in Moscow. They literally wouldn't understand the concept.
 

christy87

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Stinger would be my pick.
Tanks, look when they are introduced in the ww1 movie all quite on the western front, they were a game changer, to be more precise WW2 how they were used the allies didn’t expect them in the fashion they were used they expected conventional trench warfare taking years to grab ground, whereas tanks could move rapidly on unsuspecting soldiers.
 

Ødegaard

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Probably a question for the military historians but what other weapons system has turned the tide on a conflict in such a way...save for the manhattan project which didn't turn the tide but sped up the inevitable, I think its the proximity fuze in the AA artillery during WW2. Overnight the Axis losses of aircraft increased by orders of magnitude. Also, the Stinger missile during the first Afghan War.
The Trojan horse:p
 

Don't Kill Bill

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Probably a question for the military historians but what other weapons system has turned the tide on a conflict in such a way...save for the manhattan project which didn't turn the tide but sped up the inevitable, I think its the proximity fuze in the AA artillery during WW2. Overnight the Axis losses of aircraft increased by orders of magnitude. Also, the Stinger missile during the first Afghan War.
Airborn radar via the invention of the magnetron turned the war in the atlantic.

The magnetron was later described by American military scientists as "the most valuable cargo ever brought to our shores".
 

711

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Probably a question for the military historians but what other weapons system has turned the tide on a conflict in such a way...save for the manhattan project which didn't turn the tide but sped up the inevitable, I think its the proximity fuze in the AA artillery during WW2. Overnight the Axis losses of aircraft increased by orders of magnitude. Also, the Stinger missile during the first Afghan War.
Barbed wire resulted in the WW1 fronts being bogged down for years.

I've read more people were killed by artillery in that war than rifles and machine guns.
 

R'hllor

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This morning few hours ago my dad died. Directly from PTSP and he already lost one leg (after Vukovar when you raped and killed everyone).

But you had to carry your grandma... And you lived in a basement? It is feckin hilarous comparing to what you did to everyone for around 4 years... You bombed the whole city for 3 months and then when you finally went in sing a song for the families that were in a hospital (there will be blood, there will be blood, we will kill Croats). But that is not all. Imagine how feckin stupid the whole country was when they think they didn't deserve it and thar NATO was bombarding you and without your fault.

And this is how Ukranians will feel.

Btw. if he this gent responds in any logical way (because I will not post anymore) this is the day they enter the city finally.


We will never forget. Ever.
First sorry for your loss, 2nd was 6 in 1990, so i didnt do shit, none of my relatives took part in that war. I shared my own experience/trauma thats all. Imagine how fecking stupid it is to think that whole country should burn because some feckers brainwashed certain % of masses while having nothing else to sell them. Also if you want to dig in the past stop acting like both sides didnt have hands deep in innoncent blood but certainly wont share shit about it.

Not gonna derail further, nor gonna interect with you, no point, i dont know you, have no issue you are Croat or what ever nationality, you probably have issue with mine but i get it, i didnt feel on my own skin shit from that war, you did directly or indirectly, take care.
 

The Firestarter

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Airborn radar via the invention of the magnetron turned the war in the atlantic.

The magnetron was later described by American military scientists as "the most valuable cargo ever brought to our shores".
I think it was the Sonar that changed the war in the Athlantic?
 

Denis79

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These affected generations will never forgive most russians, but as someone with family from/in both countries, i would certainly hope that the future goes down a path where eternal enemy is something that can be avoided. Ideally Putin will fall and Russia will slowly democratize, hand over war criminals/punish those complicit at state level and pay massive reparations, setting the groundwork for an eventual relationship as Germany and their WW2 allies have with the rest of Europe today. of course it's far too early to talk about such things, and could easily end up much worse.
Being from ex-Yugoslavia and being a mix between Serb and Bosnian, I had the same worries. New generations will see it differently but the one's that are living through this won't ever forgive I think.
 

Simbo

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Some PoV combat footage from an international legion unit, nothing sensitive here really.
 
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Sir Matt

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It is wild how incompetent the Germans seem to be at all of this. I know every country has its morons on the Russian payroll (Flynn, McGregor in the US), but the German intel chief was in Kyiv during the invasion and had to be extracted. I assume Vad is on the Kremlin payroll though.

I'm curious if the historic presence of a number of Russophilic German politicians (Schroeder and various other lower level people) has created an abnormally large blindspot for them when it comes to Russia.
 
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frostbite

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I am really surprised every time I read about "depleted stockpiles". First of all, it is hard to believe this, because the main US power is in the Air Force, and we have not used any Air Force weapons here. We have also not used any tanks or tank ammunition, because Ukraine's tanks are not compatible. And we have definitely not used any navy ammunition, and the US Navy has plenty of rockets and stockpiles. So, the "depleted stockpiles" can only refer to the artillery, which a very secondary weapon for the US, as far as I know.

The other thing is, why do the Americans need to have full stockpiles, if not for helping counter Russia? I mean, the reason we have stockpiles is exactly for what is happening now, right?

It reminds me of the earlier articles about Germany "worrying" about their stockpiles if they give any ammunition to Ukraine. What would Germany need their stockpiles for? It is not like Poland or China would invade Germany and they'd need their artillery ammunition, right?
 

Simbo

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I am really surprised every time I read about "depleted stockpiles". First of all, it is hard to believe this, because the main US power is in the Air Force, and we have not used any Air Force weapons here. We have also not used any tanks or tank ammunition, because Ukraine's tanks are not compatible. And we have definitely not used any navy ammunition, and the US Navy has plenty of rockets and stockpiles. So, the "depleted stockpiles" can only refer to the artillery, which a very secondary weapon for the US, as far as I know.

The other thing is, why do the Americans need to have full stockpiles, if not for helping counter Russia? I mean, the reason we have stockpiles is exactly for what is happening now, right?

It reminds me of the earlier articles about Germany "worrying" about their stockpiles if they give any ammunition to Ukraine. What would Germany need their stockpiles for? It is not like Poland or China would invade Germany and they'd need their artillery ammunition, right?
Agree, it sounds very nonsensical to me. Add to your reasoning that all of the US arms industry is privately owned... They will be chomping at the bit to produce and sell ammunition to the government as and when they decide to 'replenish' stocks.

Just the usual media dribble.
 

stevoc

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I am really surprised every time I read about "depleted stockpiles". First of all, it is hard to believe this, because the main US power is in the Air Force, and we have not used any Air Force weapons here. We have also not used any tanks or tank ammunition, because Ukraine's tanks are not compatible. And we have definitely not used any navy ammunition, and the US Navy has plenty of rockets and stockpiles. So, the "depleted stockpiles" can only refer to the artillery, which a very secondary weapon for the US, as far as I know.

The other thing is, why do the Americans need to have full stockpiles, if not for helping counter Russia? I mean, the reason we have stockpiles is exactly for what is happening now, right?

It reminds me of the earlier articles about Germany "worrying" about their stockpiles if they give any ammunition to Ukraine. What would Germany need their stockpiles for? It is not like Poland or China would invade Germany and they'd need their artillery ammunition, right?
Someone's looking for a budget boost next year most likely.
 

the hea

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Agree, it sounds very nonsensical to me. Add to your reasoning that all of the US arms industry is privately owned... They will be chomping at the bit to produce and sell ammunition to the government as and when they decide to 'replenish' stocks.

Just the usual media dribble.
US ammunition production, especially for the ground forces is only a fraction of what it used to be during the cold war days and it takes a long time to build factories and new production lines while the ammunition is needed right now.

The 2 major problems from what I have read is 155mm shells and Stinger missiles.
The US production capacity for 155mm artillery shells is about 80,000 shells per year, that is the equivalent of what Ukraine uses in 2-3 weeks the rest will have had to come out of existing stockpiles.
Stinger missiles have only been produced at very limited amounts for nearly 20 years now (18 years since the last US contract) and according to the Raytheon CEO the company that produces them, some components used in the missiles are no longer available so they will have to be redesigned before they can ramp up production.
 

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I deleted my earlier post about advances on the Kinburn Spit (part of peninsula west of Kherson) because I wasn’t sure about the source, but there’s more unconfirmed reports coming in about it so might as well share. That would mean they’re already across the water, so the vids with special forces/marines on boats might be legit and from that area.