Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

MoskvaRed

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Biggest major power geopolitical blunder since different acts of Axis aggression in WWII, 90% confirmed? I wonder what's effectively left of their military.

I wish there was even more being done to help Ukraine be able to liberate the occupied territories. They've borne such a huge burden and I don't think they will ever see adequate reparations.
Probably one of the biggest blunders of all time. They had carefully built up an image of a restored great power which, while many suspected that it may have been largely smoke and mirrors, was still relatively convincing. Rather than continue that strategy of leveraging off old memories of Soviet/Russian might, they showed their hand in a totally avoidable conflict which has reduced them to a figure of ridicule and, geopolitically, to being a supplicant of China.
 

MTF

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Probably one of the biggest blunders of all time. They had carefully built up an image of a restored great power which, while many suspected that it may have been largely smoke and mirrors, was still relatively convincing. Rather than continue that strategy of leveraging off old memories of Soviet/Russian might, they showed their hand in a totally avoidable conflict which has reduced them to a figure of ridicule and, geopolitically, to being a supplicant of China.
Certainly no one wanted to really test them and find out of they were just a paper tiger, but they went ahead and decided to prove it all by themselves.
 

Raoul

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I'm trying to think of which actor or film character Prigozhin reminds me of. The best I can do is Darth Vader without the helmet at the end of Return of the Jedi.
 

2cents

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Probably one of the biggest blunders of all time. They had carefully built up an image of a restored great power which, while many suspected that it may have been largely smoke and mirrors, was still relatively convincing. Rather than continue that strategy of leveraging off old memories of Soviet/Russian might, they showed their hand in a totally avoidable conflict which has reduced them to a figure of ridicule and, geopolitically, to being a supplicant of China.
I do wonder if Putin could go back to February last year knowing what he now knows would he abandon the operation altogether or just do things differently?
 

Ragnar123

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I do wonder if Putin could go back to February last year knowing what he now knows would he abandon the operation altogether or just do things differently?
He would wait a year or two and massively gear up his military before the invasion, but he wouldn't abandon it. A democracy in a former soviet state such as Ukraine is a direct threat to his power, especially considering that Belarus nearly threw Lukashenko out and just waiting for another opportunity. And then there is also his imperialistic USSR dream.
 

Don't Kill Bill

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I do wonder if Putin could go back to February last year knowing what he now knows would he abandon the operation altogether or just do things differently?
He could have just escalated the ongoing fighting and I doubt the west would have moved up support like they have.
 

4bars

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I do wonder if Putin could go back to February last year knowing what he now knows would he abandon the operation altogether or just do things differently?
I think he would do it in 2019 or wait if in 2024 Trump would be elected. With Trump in power I think would have gone very differently. Without US response, Germany would still be sending helmets and other countries in NATO bar Poland and Baltic countries would not be so invested or nothing at all. Even Poland and Baltic countries probably would tone it down to not be next as Trump maybe would be threating to get out of NATO and this could be de facto a failed organization leaving eastern europe exposed. At the same time, I would not be so sure that Russia could beat Poland as seen by this war but as we would not see such a disaster, Putin could well try it
 

Raoul

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I do wonder if Putin could go back to February last year knowing what he now knows would he abandon the operation altogether or just do things differently?
If he could go back, i think he would not invade. At the end of the day, Putin is still a rational actor and perfectly able to to weight the pros and cons of invading. If he knew going in he couldn't win he would've avoided invading, but kept attacking through other means (such as fomenting division inside Ukraine through Russian proxies).
 

Don't Kill Bill

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Escalated how? He escalated as much as he could, he threw everything at it including mobilization.
Russian artillery outnumbered and outranged Ukraine's. If Putin hadn't gone for the full invasion would the west have shipped the longer ranged artillery or the tanks and AFV's?

I don't know as it is a what if, but I suspect not.
 

VorZakone

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By placing too many bets on the outcome of this offensive, Western countries have not effectively signaled their commitment to a prolonged effort. If this operation proves to be the high point of Western assistance to Kyiv, then Moscow could assume that time is still on its side and that bedraggled Russian forces can eventually wear down the Ukrainian military.
Wagner convicts represent a minimal investment and are not individuals taken out of the economy, and so their losses lack political ramifications.
Whether an armistice favors Russia or Ukraine is debatable. Russia will certainly seek to rearm, but the extent of continuing Western military assistance to Ukraine is uncertain. Consequently, the way this war ends could lead to a follow-on war. After all, the current conflict is a continuation of the original 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russia-war-beyond-ukraines-offensive
 

VorZakone

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frostbite

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Of course. We always prefer a reliable and thankful dictator over lazy and treacherous democracies that just hate on us.
Lazy and treacherous democracies? Who are you calling "lazy and treacherous"?

Germany and Turkey have something in common: they are responsible for the worst genocides in the 20th century. Did you know that Germans helped Turkey to commit the Armenian genocide? For example:

https://www.dw.com/en/new-report-details-germanys-role-in-armenian-genocide/a-43268266

Germany's role in the Armenian genocide

================

It is really strange to me that a German is taking the stance of moral superiority! Especially after all the support that Germany has provided to Putin all these years before 2022, even after the invasion of 2014.

Now about Turkey, Germany should demand from their Turkish friends to 1) admit the Armenian genocide, and 2) return to Cyprus the part of the island they invaded in 1974 and they still unlawfully occupy despite numerous UN resolutions (the situation in Cyprus is similar to the occupation of the Crimea by the Russians).
 
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Port Vale Devil

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Does anybody think Putin could do something crazy like selling nukes to Iran to take the US‘s priorities off Ukraine onto Israel and the Middle East? Can’t see what he could really lose apart from killing any trade with Saudi.
 

Raoul

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Does anybody think Putin could do something crazy like selling nukes to Iran to take the US‘s priorities off Ukraine onto Israel and the Middle East? Can’t see what he could really lose apart from killing any trade with Saudi.
Even under the extremely unlikely scenario where he did, it still wouldn't remove US focus on Ukraine. It would probably also initiate an instant Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear infrastructure.
 

Simbo

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Does anybody think Putin could do something crazy like selling nukes to Iran to take the US‘s priorities off Ukraine onto Israel and the Middle East? Can’t see what he could really lose apart from killing any trade with Saudi.
No, not really. Also, the US is well capable to deal with multiple 'priorities' simultaneously. Relatively speaking, their aid to Ukraine is quite minor.
 

VorZakone

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Does anybody think Putin could do something crazy like selling nukes to Iran to take the US‘s priorities off Ukraine onto Israel and the Middle East? Can’t see what he could really lose apart from killing any trade with Saudi.
Selling nuclear weapons is a dangerous game that likely all big nations prefer to avoid, I reckon. Nothing to gain there for Putin, if anything the West will probably put the squeeze on him even more.
 

Simbo

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Biggest major power geopolitical blunder since different acts of Axis aggression in WWII, 90% confirmed? I wonder what's effectively left of their military.

I wish there was even more being done to help Ukraine be able to liberate the occupied territories. They've borne such a huge burden and I don't think they will ever see adequate reparations.
It may take a long time, but those that carry this burden have secured a prosperous and free future for their children. I'm imagining a lot of investment and tourism. People flocking from around the world to hear incredible stories and do their bit to help rebuild.

Having zero tolerance for Russian/far-right propaganda gives them a unique opportunity to set an example to the world of what a democracy can and should be. Especially while having a 'not a cnut' politician to lead the way. EU membership will be a slam dunk once their borders are secure.

No, they will never see adequate reparations, but I expect their future is bright, or hope at least.