I think with this one Jordan is right. He’s one of the few people around who actually understands the business side of it, he’s a businessman and ex owner turned pundit.
Boehly is going to ruin Chelsea (hopefully)
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) was joined by comedian Ali Woods to look back at the best and worst moments of a rollercoaster season with the annual United Hour Awards.
Has Ten Hag been sacked yet? We're not sure and we hope not, but it's looking more likely as the days pass.
Who should replace him and why is it taking so long to make a decision?
I read somewhere they are currently able to field a team of eleven players with a combined total cost of
£805 million. A couple more signings and they have a billion dollar team!
Agree. He makes some very good points and understands the financial side of things which many football journos are not too sharp on.
The key thing here is that Poch better get them into Europe or they will have to start selling players in 25 before they buy anyone
I don't want to start a new thread and not sure if there is one that already exists.
I get Simon's points mostly. But something I have wondered about with their spending is will they have to keep selling 100-200m every year to keep the amortised fees working? Id imagine CL qualification will be imperative. Will losing out on that be devastating or is it something they can ride out?
And lastly, is their spending just front loading the next 5 years? Have they just fast forwarded their spending over the next half decade and it'll drop significantly at one point?
I'm not accounting expert, and honestly a lot of this stuff goes completely over my head when discussed. But from what I gather, based on the reading I've done, is that yes CL qualification is imperative and yes, we will likely continue to boost income via player sales hence why you hear Chalobah and Gallagher being on the chopping block but also, they have to raise commercial revenue the club makes. There's just no way around that.
There's a City fan financial guy, I think he used to work for City in some capacity, who was talking to Simon Jordan this morning on Talksport and he was suggesting that he thinks Boehly and Clearlake have failing FFP incorporated into the overall growth plan, the same way big corporations accept fines for breaking rules as a small cost of doing business.
The problem most of this we have to sell every year 250 mn worth players. But truth is yes we need to sell that much only if we spend 300 mn every year. Otherwise don't need to.
This idea of buying young players to grow as a team will allow us completely within ffp in the hope of we don't need to spend 300 mn every year.
And make no mistake we settle for fantastic back line and midfield for next five years minimum.
Only area we may need to invest further will be striker department. But only if Jackson/ Broja pair fail to deliver. Look like Jackson will be fine and recent enquiry from other clubs about broja was dismissed by club indicated pochettino will be okay with him.
We will see.
The continuing to boost funds via player sales feels like it isn't sustainable. Selling even £150m worth of players every year feels difficult. That meeting Boehly had in Saudi Arabia a week or two before you sold Mendy and Koulibaly there surely can't be replicated.
I definitely think they don't care about getting a fine via FFP. Money clearly isn't an issue. Which is where FFP falls apart.
Attack just happens to be the most expensive area to buy for. I'm also not sold on the defensive rebuild. On paper yes, but Fofana, James and Chilwell are all injury prone and I don't rate Disasi that highly.
Forget FFP, forget ability of the Manager.
How do you keep dozens of young inexperienced players happy when they're only playing once a week, if they can get in the team.?
Doesn't seem sustainable especially with the ridiculously long contracts.
How do you keep dozens of young inexperienced players happy when they're only playing once a week, if they can get in the team.?
Doesn't seem sustainable especially with the ridiculously long contracts.
Not necessarily. The sales we've already made have, in addition to the one-off profits Simon was talking about, also trimmed down previous squad costs massively when it comes to both amortisation as well as player salaries.
Right now the club's total amortisation costs are around £155-165M/y and that is including all the new signings we've made both for the first team and the youth bunch since Clearlake took over and also any pre-Clearlake players we still have amortised on our books (Lukaku, Ziyech, Kepa and Chilwell).
If we add Lavia at £50M and Olise at £35M and they both get amortised over five years, the overall number is going to go up by £17M to around £172-182M/y but if we also managed to rid ourselves of Lukaku and Ziyech before the window closes then it's going to go back down to roughly the current cost level or less.
For context, our squad's amortisation costs were around the £160-165M/y mark in all of the last 4-5 years under the Abramovich ownership too and we didn't have to worry about FFP too much, though regular UCL revenues and the occasional players sales for profit were always needed to comply and that will still remain to be the case. So yeah CL qualification is going to be really important but as long as we manage to do it I wouldn't expect too many problems re FFP. Having a top academy and also hoarding some young players to loan them out and potentially selling for profit later on will offset the need for sales, which is pretty much how it was under the RA ownership as well.
I would expect things to calm down significantly. We've built a really young squad with massive potential and at some point it's vital to just have some stability for these players to have the best chance of reaching their peak heights.
Our midfield should more or less be set for years with the likes of Enzo, Caicedo, Lavia, Santos, Chukwuemeka, Ugochukwu etc. and at least on paper the same should go for the defense as well with Colwill, James, Badiashile, Gusto, Chilwell, Disasi, Fofana etc. but there are some question marks over the fitness of some of these lads so we'll just have to wait and see.
Even in attack we have lots of potential but apart from Nkunku the rest of them haven't really shown anything yet so it remains to be seen whether things will click or if we'll eventually need to rebuild the rebuild here.
We'll definitely need a new top goalie sooner or later though. I don't think Bob Sanchez is all that but I'd be happy to be proven wrong by him.
Every club in history has made the same mistake: Phil Jones and Chris Smalling were going to be our center back pairing for a decade. Things don't typically work out as you thought they would. But for other clubs, you adjust to the new information and buy new players. Chelsea won't be able to do that
Thanks @Rnd898
I still don’t understand what’s funny about any of it, for me it just feels detrimental to all of football. Chelsea in yet another round of operating in a way that‘s just not feasible for any normally run top club. Pretty much signed half a starting eleven this summer, likely to bring in another two first team players, signed more or less an entire starting eleven last season. It’s like football manager with complete resets every transfer window, just completely insane the extents of both the amount of signings and the transfer fees.
I’d rather have Manchester United continue down the path of being owned by the Glazers, run poorly, rather than ever getting to the point where Chelsea is now.
I’d rather have Manchester United continue down the path of being owned by the Glazers, run poorly, rather than ever getting to the point where Chelsea is now.
The scrutiny about CFC finances I believe that's the same situation for all other clubs too including mufc. Just few weeks before you guys breached ffp and fined for it. It's not alone a CFC problem.
If mount, onana and hojlund failed it could be same for you guys too. Arsenal net spent similar to us for last three years if not better despite this season only they get cl. If rice,timber and havertz failed it's same for them to. We didn't breach any ffp till now. So assuming we are in better state than both if you at least.
So where you find CFC will alone struggle but all other clubs are in strong position.
I mean if we were in any trouble with FFP this year it would have been you and Arsenal that got us off the hook not Saudi.
Mount and Havertz make logical sense to their buyers. Koulibaly and Mendy don't.
It's less likely you have a couple of 50-60m players to sell each year than it is a couple of duds and elder players you could sell for 15-20m.
Actually you said reversely. There is no logical sense in buying mount and havertz and play them in out of position or keep them in bench for huge sums.
Recent matches they played clearly explained it. But mendy and koulibally were sense for their culture.
I haven't watched the Simon video but from what I understood about these accounting techniques is that the risk is if these players do not end up being as good as expected, and have to be sold later on for a lower price, then they might actually make a loss on a sale because the sale price would be lower than amortized cost at that time for the player.
Ofcourse one can argue that with such a long contract, they hold the power in terms of not being under pressure to sell because the contract is running out. But with that, they also stand to be in a position that if the other team does not agree to a large fee, they would be stuck with a player for a long time and would still have to buy replacement players, thereby losing the opportunity to recoup some of the purchase cost.
What makes you say this? Players moving from a top club who are (at least in Mendy's case) only recently removed from being considered among the best in their position gives a lot of credibility. Plus the Saudis have made a concerted effort specifically to recruit Muslim players as they build out their brand.
It's also not like they paid exorbitant fees anyway - Koulibaly was sold at a loss even.
Yes that is a potential concern - but this Chelsea ownership have already shown a willingness to absorb short-term financial hits to allow the squad to turn over and improve flexibility longer-term.
Plus the other key that's overlooked here is that these players are on contracts with low base salaries - so the pool of teams willing to take a flier will be much bigger as they can do so without totally compromising their existing wage structure.
Isn't the new FFP basically ok with clubs breaching it anyway? You pay a fine but there's no points deductions etc.
While the owners will be able to absorb short term loses, FFP will be a main concern if Chelsea start making loses.
There is a lot of uncertainty for me, signing so many young players does not mean they are set for the future with little need for new signings. Lots of young players do not end up being good and eventually have to be replaced.
Interestingly, this article by The Athletic suggests that signing a bunch of young players allows the club to pay them a relatively lower salary due to their age and experience, with bonuses tied to performances. Non-crazy salaries allows them to offload unwanted players, so if they're not working out they won't be trapped in any Maguire-esque scenario struggling to dump them elsewhere, and if the players want more game-time themselves, they must earn it or they're free to leave--and they'll still likely be sold for silly amounts.
It's not an approach guaranteed to succeed, but it's interesting to watch. It also suggests to me that we're going to continue to see mammoth figures for young and unproven players become the norm, while their salaries won't match the jaw-dropping transfer fee, which certainly helps with FFP. We can see it closer to home with Højlund: I recall that by most accounts he would earn less than £100K per week.
Pardon me, I didn't explain myself clearly. What I'm saying is the Saudi option isn't going to be there forever and Chelsea don't have a load of 60-70m sellable players.
I think so, yeah. Which is kind of funny. Generally it's going to be a rich club breaking it, why would they care about a small fine.
Gotcha. Yeah that all depends on how the players we're buying develop - certainly you'd imagine it'll be a lot more boom-or-bust in terms of outcomes.
Yeah for sure. I don't think too many are arguing that we won't have to buy anyone at all, but it seems pretty clear that these past two windows have been about assembling a core group that will (in theory) only require cosmetic surgery going forward as opposed to needing several coronary bypasses
Yeah it's basically FFP holding up the white flag. I think the PL was so desperate for the wealth of a country coming into the league and owning a team they didn't consider just how impossible it would be for them to police that country and long term how bad it would be for the league (hence why they then tried to block Saudi and got steamrolled) and now I think have given up.
Taking money out of the equation, how do you build a team when half the squad aren't playing?
There are so few games that some players could be out of the team if they have a bad game and find it difficult to get back in.
Makes little sense for a player to go there for little play time and low wages.
Hojlund may be on low wages but he's going to play a lot of games and develop.
Disillusioned players seem inevitable and poor team spirit.
The squad isn't ludicrously bloated anymore or anything. Certainly we need to loan out 2 CMs probably, but then it's all in reasonable shape (also if we can figure out a way to dump Cucurella that'd be ideal):
GK: Sanchez, Bettinelli, Bergstrom
FBs: James, Gusto, Chilwell, Maatsen, Cucurella
CBs: Silva, Colwill, Disasi, Badiashile, Chalobah,
CMs: Enzo, Caicedo, Lavia(?), Gallagher, Santos, Ugochukwu
CAMs: Nkunku, Chukwuemeka
LW: Sterling, Mudryk
RW: Madueke, Olise(?)
ST: Jackson, Broja
5 CBs, 4 CMs, and 2 for every other spot. Pretty normal.
The players are aware that this season's low game-time for the club will be a one-off, everyone will be expecting a return to the UCL/Europa. The games will return and it's almost guaranteed that there will be more opportunities a year down the line.
Most of these signings seem to be starters rather than squad reinforcements, they'll have multiple opportunities to perform and to mess up before they get dropped. Without doubt some won't make it and will turn out to be flops, that'll be factored in. But if they're successfully gelled together as a proper unit from this young age, they can go on to compete or dominate for years. I personally think it's a slightly mad approach and is high-risk, but I also think that parts of the logic of this approach may become emulated a lot.
I listened to Jordan again today with the ex Man City lawyer who was their FFP expert, both agreed chelsea will be fine as long as they get Champions League. There is also a consensus that chelsea will keep selling if they want to use this model.
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CL qualification is imperative for breathing room. Otherwise the club would need to be creative with sales and sponsorships to accommodate. It's also worth noting that about 100m/season has been reduced from the wage bill by getting rid of the established core.
Yes all this spending is front-loading the squad for the new era. And it makes financial sense to do it all while costs can still be amortised over longer contracts (pl). Once the squad quality and balance issues are addressed, the spending will change. Again also worth noting that player sales should be in the region of 500m once all is set. Chalobah, Gallagher, Odoi, Kepa, Lukaku, Ziyech - potentially Maatsen, Sterling and Cucurella by the end of the season. So around 300m net spend for the first team squad overhaul and 200m spent on the next wave to feed into the team (Casadei, Ogochukwu, Paez, Datro Fofana, Angelo etc).
Chelsea also don't need to buy caceido or Enzo every year as well. We invested in a good talented squad. We did compensate by selling players for good amount.
Are you saying our owners not knowing all of our account side thats not good but spend like drunkards. We invested in the best young players who are available and willing to take our contract. We will be fine including future ffp.
We are also not fully utilised our commercial side as well. We are working on it and will have huge potential to increase our revenue.
Of course nobody knows what future will hold for us but failed to address present problem would surely affect future. So taking a little risk to address present problem is a no brainer and strategically it's the best way going forward for us.
This loop holes as they said and closing it actually benefit us in long term.
Of course things could be little calmer if we had a settled team and settled manager but last season team completely different without kante and kante s inability to stay fit totally finished us off.
We will finish in cl spot and fight for domestic cups. We are completely fine with what we have got especially the reconstruction of our midfield. The way we played against liverpool gave us lot of encouragement without caicedo and long term absentee in nkunku.
Unfortuantely for Chelsea competition for Chapmions League football has never been stronger.
While on one hand it might feel impossible for them to fail, last season they bought almost an entirely new team and finished in the bottom of the half of the table. How do they remedy it? By doing essentially the same thing all over again. There's every chance this bonkers way of assembling a team could fail again.
Fortunately for Chelsea, I feel like if they keep buying players they'll eventually stumble on an eleven that work well together. It may well be this season, but I wouldn't be surprised if it gets messy at some point at least for a period.
I also hope they implode massively because what they are doing is an insult. At least try and pretend you're not cheating like the blue cnuts.
While on one hand it might feel impossible for them to fail, last season they bought almost an entirely new team and finished in the bottom of the half of the table. How do they remedy it? By doing essentially the same thing all over again. There's every chance this bonkers way of assembling a team could fail again.
Fortunately for Chelsea, I feel like if they keep buying players they'll eventually stumble on an eleven that work well together. It may well be this season, but I wouldn't be surprised if it gets messy at some point at least for a period.
I also hope they implode massively because what they are doing is an insult. At least try and pretend you're not cheating like the blue cnuts.
Okay fair enough with Kouli but incredibly harsh on Mendy. For his first 18 months he was a top 10 keeper, if not top 5 and still pretty young for a keeper.
Pretty normal for a Champions League squad but still lacking experience.
Which means that qualification for the CL is absolutely vital at the end of this season. Not convinced.
Yeah you aren't wrong here. Hopefully we get reasonable cup draws this year compared to last...