Declan Rice | Arsenal £105m player

[Daydreamer]

He’s doing his job well, I did however read that Arsenal’s big attacking issue this season is how much less ball Odegaard is seeing and how that in part is due to Partey finding him much more often than Rice manages.

This is a good point. Partey’s progressive passing is a level above Rice’s. I predict it always will be.

Our midfield last year was strange. In a sense, everyone was playing slightly ‘out of position’, in terms of where they had played most in recent years.

Partey was an 8 playing at 6.
Xhaka was a 6 playing at 8.
Odegaard was an 8 playing at 10.

As a result, we had a progressive pivot player at 6, a playmaker (and surprisingly good finisher) at 8 and essentially a second striker at 10. It was incredibly attacking and relied a great deal on our back line being good 1v1 defenders in a high line.

Saliba and Tomiyasu’s injury derailed this completely. Partey had more ground to cover and his form fell off a cliff.

Our current system is more sustainable, but it is slower and less dynamic. We’ll see whether the trade off was worth it in May.

 

[90 + 5min]

He’s been one of the better players in a team that has been top of the league for most of the season and is only two points off top spot now.

Are Luiz, McGinn, Endo 100+m players? Their teams are at the top to. He is solid midfielder. Teamplayer. Thats it. Nowhere near what Odegaard and Havertz have been in both quality or importance for Arsenal. Even if they don’t play same position.

Yep, I was gonna say this, but few people get a bit touchy whenever Gooners say anything along those lines around here.

There’s no way we’d be anywhere near the top of the league if Rice was as limited as some are making out.

Well, even if I don’t want to compare seasons, you were better without him last season. So people throwing out nonsens stats about xG, progressive passes and those stuff should take that into account to. For me, it is enough watching games and look what players actually give in different teams during games.

 

[SilentWitness]

Are Luiz, McGinn, Endo 100+m players? Their teams are at the top to. He is solid midfielder. Teamplayer. Thats it. Nowhere near what Odegaard and Havertz have been in both quality or importance for Arsenal. Even if they don’t play same position.


Well, even if I don’t want to compare seasons, you were better without him last season. So people throwing out nonsens stats about xG, progressive passes and those stuff should take that into account to. For me, it is enough watching games and look what players actually give in different teams during games.

As always, stats and the eye test should be used in conjunction with each other. Both of those show that Rice is one of the best performing players for a side that is one of the best performing in the league.

 

[ShinjiNinja26]

Xhaka was a better fit for Arsenal. Change my mind.

Everyone knows this, including Arsenal fans, they just don’t want to admit it because they dropped £105m on Declan Rice. Now they just spam the thread with how “amazing” he is after every game like they’re trying to kid themselves on.

 

[Daydreamer]

So you think Bruno Fernandes has been the best creative midfielder in the league this season? After all, the stats say so.

I’m all for the use of stats, but they need to be contextualised and backed up with actual observation. Onana has the 2nd best save percentage in the PL, can you genuinely say he has been the 2nd best shot stopper in the league?

But the stats don’t say that. They just (apparently) say that he’s created the most chances.

The point being the debated was whether or not Rice is the best midfielder in the league. It was this…

there’s a material difference between someone evading the press by dropping in between the CBs to receive it in space, and someone who can receive it on the turn and bypass his marker.

For all we know Rice might have the passing and vision of Riquelme but if he doesn’t show it and just defaults to the safe options everytime then what does it matter?

The stats flat out contradict that assertion. It’s impossible to rack up the number of progressive passes Rice does and spend games constantly dropping between your CBs and playing five yard square passes.

 

[90 + 5min]

So you think Bruno Fernandes has been the best creative midfielder in the league this season? After all, the stats say so.

I’m all for the use of stats, but they need to be contextualised and backed up with actual observation. Onana has the 2nd best save percentage in the PL, can you genuinely say he has been the 2nd best shot stopper in the league?

People can throw stats allaround them. If they do that they shouldn’t forget any stats that might be negative to a certain agenda.
I’m no fan of nonsens like xG or other meaningless stats. For a football eye it is enough to watch games and decide.

You pointed out with just two players how stats can be different from reality.

 

[90 + 5min]

As always, stats and the eye test should be used in conjunction with each other. Both of those show that Rice is one of the best performing players for a side that is one of the best performing in the league.

Of course not. You aren’t reading your stats correctly or you are just cherrypicking.
I ask you again, are Luiz, McGinn or Endo 100+ m players because they have been playing for teams at the top? And do you think Rice is better than McGinn comparing their stats or with eye test?

 

[SilentWitness]

Of course not. You aren’t reading your stats correctly or you are just cherrypicking.
I ask you again, are Luiz, McGinn or Endo 100+ m players because they have been playing for teams at the top? And do you think Rice is better than McGinn comparing their stats or with eye test?

Never said Rice is worth 105m, not many players are. The fee is heavily inflated, but in regards to best players this season I'd have McGinn up there too. Luiz has also been good. Endo, no.

 

[Jeppers7]

This is a good point. Partey’s progressive passing is a level above Rice’s. I predict it always will be.

Our midfield last year was strange. In a sense, everyone was playing slightly ‘out of position’, in terms of where they had played most in recent years.

Partey was an 8 playing at 6.
Xhaka was a 6 playing at 8.
Odegaard was an 8 playing at 10.

As a result, we had a progressive pivot player at 6, a playmaker (and surprisingly good finisher) at 8 and essentially a second striker at 10. It was incredibly attacking and relied a great deal on our back line being good 1v1 defenders in a high line.

Saliba and Tomiyasu’s injury derailed this completely. Partey had more ground to cover and his form fell off a cliff.

Our current system is more sustainable, but it is slower and less dynamic. We’ll see whether the trade off was worth it in May.

I’ll save you the time…It won’t be.

 

[bosnian_red]

What about expected goals scored?

2.05 xG per game this season, 2.01 per game last season.

They also are in the CL this season and dealing with a tougher fixture list without rotating players, last season they were in Europa League where they could treat those games much lighter and be more fresh for the league. It's a factor that has to be considered (also how comfortably they dispatched their CL group).

Overall counting wise, it's not a huge difference one way or another. They are roughly performing at pretty much the same level by the metrics as last season. What is different is the system around. Arteta replaced 2 deep players with just Rice and has tried to toss another 10 in the lineup like havertz. That to me is a dumb decision. You can't really just say it's partey vs rice when it was Partey and Xhaka combined vs Rice and a mediocre 10. That's naturally going to unbalance you more, and I just don't rare havertz at all.

Rice to me is just a top DM, probably in the top 3 in the world this season. Rodri top, then between him and Tchouameni. He does a good job in progressing the game (93rd percentile progressive passes and 97th percentile passes into final third), being reliable on the ball (91st percentile pass completion), being press resistant, and of course doing a great job defensively to shut down attacks, reduce shots per game, reduce xG per game, and give Arsenal more control in territory throughout games. He replaced 2 players for that role so it's naturally going to be some give and take there. It depends on the team structure around for the total end result.

 

[El Jefe]

Are Luiz, McGinn, Endo 100+m players? Their teams are at the top to. He is solid midfielder. Teamplayer. Thats it. Nowhere near what Odegaard and Havertz have been in both quality or importance for Arsenal. Even if they don’t play same position.

I’ve seen enough now, no need to respond anymore.

 

[bosnian_red]

But what rodri does is the norm for a top team, he's just very good at it.

Rodri isn't the norm FFS, he's deserving of being in the top 3 for ballon dor IMO and is without a doubt the best DM in world football!

 

[Berbaclass]

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[bosnian_red]

He’s doing his job well, I did however read that Arsenal’s big attacking issue this season is how much less ball Odegaard is seeing and how that in part is due to Partey finding him much more often than Rice manages.
I guess that’s the balancing act you get with bringing in someone like Rice.

I would say the reason for that is because before they had 2 players naturally deep in Xhaka and Partey with Odegaard the focal point to create going forward. Arteta has flipped his triangle and has Rice alone deep, trying to invert Zinchenko more to build up and the attacking mids are now split between Havertz and Odegaard.

Important to see what is a player impact and what is instruction impact. It's a similar issue for me at United. We were much more exposed defensively and had a harder time trying to build up play with just 1 deep player and using two 10's pushing up. Maybe it gives higher potential. But on the pitch I don't think either United or Arsenal have improved using this system, even if someone like Rice is doing a very good job with that role while our guys have crumbled in that role. For us I'd much rather shade that with Casemiro and Mainoo, and have Bruno be the focal point in attack.

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

The stats flat out contradict that assertion. It’s impossible to rack up the number of progressive passes Rice does and spend games constantly dropping between your CBs and playing five yard square passes.

Just do 10 yard passes out wide, that’s you sorted.

Your team has the highest progressive passes total in the league, but a crocked Partey still easily outmatches Rice in that metric this season, and really it’s not a hard task to rack up that stat when you play a line as high as you are with the opponent pinned in their own box, but his habit of safety first, unimaginative pass, or dropping as the last man when put under the cosh instead of stepping up with the ball when you play a team of equal stature is on full display even this season. Yesterday there were plenty of occasions when he could’ve stepped up with his ball carrying and try to draw players to him before laying it off to someone else, he didn’t, as usual. That’s who he is, a reactive player, not an active player.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

So you think Bruno Fernandes has been the best creative midfielder in the league this season? After all, the stats say so.

I’m all for the use of stats, but they need to be contextualised and backed up with actual observation. Onana has the 2nd best save percentage in the PL, can you genuinely say he has been the 2nd best shot stopper in the league?

And the stats and observation from people far more qualified than you or I are telling you hes doing a very good job.

 

[SilentWitness]

2.05 xG per game this season, 2.01 per game last season.

They also are in the CL this season and dealing with a tougher fixture list without rotating players, last season they were in Europa League where they could treat those games much lighter and be more fresh for the league. It's a factor that has to be considered (also how comfortably they dispatched their CL group).

Overall counting wise, it's not a huge difference one way or another. They are roughly performing at pretty much the same level by the metrics as last season. What is different is the system around. Arteta replaced 2 deep players with just Rice and has tried to toss another 10 in the lineup like havertz. That to me is a dumb decision. You can't really just say it's partey vs rice when it was Partey and Xhaka combined vs Rice and a mediocre 10. That's naturally going to unbalance you more, and I just don't rare havertz at all.

Rice to me is just a top DM, probably in the top 3 in the world this season. Rodri top, then between him and Tchouameni. He does a good job in progressing the game (93rd percentile progressive passes and 97th percentile passes into final third), being reliable on the ball (91st percentile pass completion), being press resistant, and of course doing a great job defensively to shut down attacks, reduce shots per game, reduce xG per game, and give Arsenal more control in territory throughout games. He replaced 2 players for that role so it's naturally going to be some give and take there. It depends on the team structure around for the total end result.

Good post and agree with this.

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

And the stats and observation from people far more qualified than you or I are telling you hes doing a very good job.

4 consecutive Utd managers have persisted with McTominay, you still can’t convince me that he’s anything but mid table at best as a midfielder, argument from authority is a poor way to make your point.

I also have stated on multiple occasions that I think Rice is a good playerwho excel with a specific skill set, if that’s what you want from him, well and good, but I won’t be gaslighted into thinking he’s anything other than average when it comes to playmaking as a midfielder, until he shows otherwise. I’m also not the one who condescendingly stated that not rating Rice means you know feck all about football, a sentiment more than one of his defenders haven’t been shy to make.

 

[90 + 5min]

2.05 xG per game this season, 2.01 per game last season.

They also are in the CL this season and dealing with a tougher fixture list without rotating players, last season they were in Europa League where they could treat those games much lighter and be more fresh for the league. It's a factor that has to be considered (also how comfortably they dispatched their CL group).

Overall counting wise, it's not a huge difference one way or another. They are roughly performing at pretty much the same level by the metrics as last season. What is different is the system around. Arteta replaced 2 deep players with just Rice and has tried to toss another 10 in the lineup like havertz. That to me is a dumb decision. You can't really just say it's partey vs rice when it was Partey and Xhaka combined vs Rice and a mediocre 10. That's naturally going to unbalance you more, and I just don't rare havertz at all.

Rice to me is just a top DM, probably in the top 3 in the world this season. Rodri top, then between him and Tchouameni. He does a good job in progressing the game (93rd percentile progressive passes and 97th percentile passes into final third), being reliable on the ball (91st percentile pass completion), being press resistant, and of course doing a great job defensively to shut down attacks, reduce shots per game, reduce xG per game, and give Arsenal more control in territory throughout games. He replaced 2 players for that role so it's naturally going to be some give and take there. It depends on the team structure around for the total end result.

What a complete nonsens. Replacing two midfielders? Do you know what you talk about?

Also, your passing procentages is buildt on passing from between 5-30 meters. Pretty much what he does. Backwards and sideways. When it comes to longer passes it drops to 70%. Why not talk about longer passes then? Don't fit the narrative? If he was that great passer of the ball how is it that he only got 1 assist in the league? That is with a team that is in the top. David Raya has 100% in both short and medium passes? He must be world best goalkeeper or midfielder.

And if that is not enough look up blocks, areal wins, interceptions, clearences, duels won and lost or tackles as he is supposed to be defensive midfielder. Compare that to other central midfielders.

So 100+ m? West Ham are laughing out loud.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

So you think Bruno Fernandes has been the best creative midfielder in the league this season? After all, the stats say so.

I’m all for the use of stats, but they need to be contextualised and backed up with actual observation. Onana has the 2nd best save percentage in the PL, can you genuinely say he has been the 2nd best shot stopper in the league?

There are better stats than save % to work out if a goalkeeper has been a good shot stopper and yes, I would believe those stats over anyone’s opinion.

Same with Bruno. It’s a little more complicated to break down an attacking midfielder’s overall contribution to statistics but I would 100% take those stats over the sort of emotional and biased nonsense a lot football fans seem to bring to a discussion about how good a footballer is. Exhibit A. This thread.

 

[bosnian_red]

What a complete nonsens. Replacing two midfielders? Do you know what you talk about?

Also, your passing procentages is buildt on passing from between 5-30 meters. Pretty much what he does. Backwards and sideways. When it comes to longer passes it drops to 70%. Why not talk about longer passes then? Don't fit the narrative? If he was that great passer of the ball how is it that he only got 1 assist in the league? That is with a team that is in the top. David Raya has 100% in both short and medium passes? He must be world best goalkeeper or midfielder.

And if that is not enough look up blocks, areal wins, interceptions, clearences, duels won and lost or tackles as he is supposed to be defensive midfielder. Compare that to other central midfielders.

So 100+ m? West Ham are laughing out loud.

Progressive pass stats exclude the defensive 40% of the pitch, so maybe read up definitions before calling something nonsense

Replacing 2 midfielders, yes. They used Xhaka and Partey as a midfield 2 with Odegaard free to roam in front of them last season. This season they are using Rice alone deep with Odegaard and Havertz often the other one who is more advanced (Trossard yesterday...). Does it need to be explained that Xhaka and Partey are naturally deep players who played like a normal midfield duo, while rice is alone deep now?

He's a defensive midfielder. I'm not saying he's the best midfielder of all time, his long passing is not special that is true, his role isn't there to create chances and get assists. Even just pointing out assist stats for a holding midfielder as some form of negative is just dumb. That's the same logic which led to people underrating Modric on here years ago, when anybody with eyeballs could tell he was a generational player. Look through Keane's assist stats over the years, I assure you it wasn't impressive. Rice is there to provide a base for the team, shut down opposition attacks, and provide more overall control. The other attackers should be better positioned to create more as a result of this. Team system inevitably has a big part to play in all this as is performance of others (Martinelli having a horrid season this year is obviously having an impact).

 

[90 + 5min]

Progressive pass stats exclude the defensive 40% of the pitch, so maybe read up definitions before calling something nonsense

Replacing 2 midfielders, yes. They used Xhaka and Partey as a midfield 2 with Odegaard free to roam in front of them last season. This season they are using Rice alone deep with Odegaard and Havertz often the other one who is more advanced (Trossard yesterday...). Does it need to be explained that Xhaka and Partey are naturally deep players who played like a normal midfield duo, while rice is alone deep now?

He's a defensive midfielder. I'm not saying he's the best midfielder of all time, his long passing is not special that is true, his role isn't there to create chances and get assists. Even just pointing out assist stats for a holding midfielder as some form of negative is just dumb. That's the same logic which led to people underrating Modric on here years ago, when anybody with eyeballs could tell he was a generational player. Look through Keane's assist stats over the years, I assure you it wasn't impressive. Rice is there to provide a base for the team, shut down opposition attacks, and provide more overall control. The other attackers should be better positioned to create more as a result of this. Team system inevitably has a big part to play in all this as is performance of others (Martinelli having a horrid season this year is obviously having an impact).

Exclude 40% of the pitch and you are still in your half. And because Arsenal usually plays against teams who are defending deep in their half it is not that hard to pass around picking up stats when nobody is attacking you. Sideways and backwards.

No, he didn't replace two midfielder. What he has done is basiclly give Zinchenko a role where he should combine his fullback role with some central midfielder duties when Havertz and Odegaard is further up. So if you want to talk about tactics, we could argue that Arteta now sometimes have 4 central midfielders in different match situations. So one more midfielder than last year in certain game aspects which would mean that Rice have now help from 3 other player instead of 2. Is it not great how we can play with numbers?

I wouldn't even think of comparing Rice with Keane. They are so far from eachother in quality and leadership that it is mindblowing.

 

[GoonerBear]

Xhaka was a better fit for Arsenal. Change my mind.

Everyone knows this, including Arsenal fans, they just don’t want to admit it because they dropped £105m on Declan Rice. Now they just spam the thread with how “amazing” he is after every game like they’re trying to kid themselves on.

They aren’t playing the same position. Rice is playing where Partey played, Havertz is playing where Xhaka played. Surely those would be the 2 comparisons to make?

 

[Murder on Zidanes Floor]

Erm… yes.

Christ, then the RB rolls the ball back to the keeper, what progression.

 

[Murder on Zidanes Floor]

I’m not going to be drawn into a debate on whether being able to bring the ball through the middle of the park through the thirds by ball carrying is meaningless. It’s such a stupid opinion to have.

You’re just wrong.

I mean, teams sit back so what press is he really facing? I mean, I watch him and just don't see what you're on about.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

4 consecutive Utd managers have persisted with McTominay, you still can’t convince me that he’s anything but mid table at best as a midfielder, argument from authority is a poor way to make your point.

I also have stated on multiple occasions that I think Rice is a good playerwho excel with a specific skill set, if that’s what you want from him, well and good, but I won’t be gaslighted into thinking he’s anything other than average when it comes to playmaking as a midfielder, until he shows otherwise. I’m also not the one who condescendingly stated that not rating Rice means you know feck all about football, a sentiment more than one of his defenders haven’t been shy to make.

I’m not talking about McTominay nor United’s footballing structure so it’s a false equivalence. Nor would I make any arguments that McTominay is an elite midfielder. Frankly I’m not sure what he has to do with any of this discussion.

I stand by my comment. If you do not think Rice is doing a good job at Arsenal you do not understand his job at Arsenal.

I don’t think he’s an elite playmaker either but that’s not what he needs to do and he can still be world class in a different way.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

I mean, teams sit back so what press is he really facing? I mean, I watch him and just don't see what you're on about.

I refer you to my previous comment you quoted.

 

[Murder on Zidanes Floor]

Let me clear, he's a good player and a decent player but £105m for him is barmy.

 

[Murder on Zidanes Floor]

I refer you to my previous comment you quoted.

Fine but I watch the games and don't really see this.

 

[TheReligion]

Let me clear, he's a good player and a decent player but £105m for him is barmy.

Yeah I agree with this.

The money spent on Rice and Havertz was absolutely ridiculous.

I do like Rice though and think he’s a good player. The stick he’s getting here is unwarranted. The price tag wasn’t his fault.

 

[Daydreamer]

Exclude 40% of the pitch and you are still in your half. And because Arsenal usually plays against teams who are defending deep in their half it is not that hard to pass around picking up stats when nobody is attacking you. Sideways and backwards.

No, he didn't replace two midfielder. What he has done is basiclly give Zinchenko a role where he should combine his fullback role with some central midfielder duties when Havertz and Odegaard is further up. So if you want to talk about tactics, we could argue that Arteta now sometimes have 4 central midfielders in different match situations. So one more midfielder than last year in certain game aspects which would mean that Rice have now help from 3 other player instead of 2. Is it not great how we can play with numbers?

I wouldn't even think of comparing Rice with Keane. They are so far from eachother in quality and leadership that it is mindblowing.

A quick glance at his heat maps (I don’t know how to copy and paste an image here) would confirm that he’s not operating particularly deep.

Progressive passes are not backwards or sideways. By definition. You don’t seem to have any understanding of the stat you’re dismissing.

By all relevant metrics related to build up play (progressive passes, progressive carries, carries under pressure, passes into the final third) he comes out as one of the top players, not just in the league, but across Europe.

We must be some team to top our CL group and be challenging for the title while carrying a passenger at the base of our midfield.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

Let me clear, he's a good player and a decent player but £105m for him is barmy.

I agree it’s an awful lot but who is better than him of a similar age and profile in terms of experience, maturity and leadership too that they could have bought (E.g. moved last window?)

 

[Coxy]

Let me clear, he's a good player and a decent player but £105m for him is barmy.

Completely disagree - for me it’s been and will be a bargain.

 

[Daydreamer]

Christ, then the RB rolls the ball back to the keeper, what progression.

Yes, in the hypothetical scenario where Rice, standing in midfield (as he must be for it to count as a progressive pass) plays the ball 15 yards forwards to our RB, if that RB then decided to boot it more than half the length of the pitch back to the GK… that wouldn’t be a particularly good move, you’re right.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

They aren’t playing the same position. Rice is playing where Partey played, Havertz is playing where Xhaka played. Surely those would be the 2 comparisons to make?

Those comparisons work for me. Rice is slightly better than Partey. Havertz is an enormous downgrade on Xhaka. All at a cost of nearly 200 million quid. Terrible business, all things considered.

 

[amolbhatia50k]

They aren’t playing the same position. Rice is playing where Partey played, Havertz is playing where Xhaka played. Surely those would be the 2 comparisons to make?

Both downgrades

 

[AltiUn]

£105m to be 10 points worse off, warra signing

 

[GoonerBear]

Those comparisons work for me. Rice is slightly better than Partey. Havertz is an enormous downgrade on Xhaka. All at a cost of nearly 200 million quid. Terrible business, all things considered.

Both downgrades

And that’s fine, that’s your opinions, at least they make sense now comparing players to the players that played in the positions the previous years.

I find it difficult to disagree with them, I think Partey’s best performances are probably better than Rices, but I also think he wasn’t as consistent with his levels as Rice is, we didn’t get enough 8 or 9 out of 10 performances consistently, possibly because he struggled to keep himself fit for any decent length of time.

By the way, need to disagree with the poster above talking about Xhakas position last season. It was a lot more further forward rather than any of the previous seasons before, Zinchenko was inverting just like he is this season. Xhakas positioning actually was the blueprint for the Havertz transfer in terms of position that left 8 would take up. It’s just then about who performs it better, think nearly all would say Xhaka so far.

 

[Marwood]

Yeah I agree with this.

The money spent on Rice and Havertz was absolutely ridiculous.

I do like Rice though and think he’s a good player. The stick he’s getting here is unwarranted. The price tag wasn’t his fault.

I think any stick is directed at Arsenal the club and how they decided to improve their squad after going fairly close last season.

Obviously as part of that you have to discuss the players they signed. Especially one who took up so much of the transfer budget.

Someone like Havertz gets talked about less because it's not even a debate really. A silly waste of money.

 

[90 + 5min]

A quick glance at his heat maps (I don’t know how to copy and paste an image here) would confirm that he’s not operating particularly deep.

Progressive passes are not backwards or sideways. By definition. You don’t seem to have any understanding of the stat you’re dismissing.

By all relevant metrics related to build up play (progressive passes, progressive carries, carries under pressure, passes into the final third) he comes out as one of the top players, not just in the league, but across Europe.

We must be some team to top our CL group and be challenging for the title while carrying a passenger at the base of our midfield.

You did not top your CL group because of him. Neither you are top 2 because of him. It is because of your attacking guys together with Havertz and Odegaard.

You can talk about all that progressive passes and pressure and use all those fancy words like xG. That doesn’t help him in any way unless you cherrypick. We who have seen a lot of footballers through years can see with our eyes what players do and what they don’t on the pitch. It is not science.

If you replace Rice with any of Jorginho or Partey it would not be any difference in your game. Maybe for the better with Partey.