1. I do not believe that Trump will win the Arab/Muslim vote as the above-mentioned poll suggests. Or, to be more precise, he won't win the Arab/Muslim vote if this community votes as it did in 2020. He may do better (% wise) with this community among those who choose to vote or among those who do not choose "uncommitted". My worry is that many won't show up or simply choose "uncommitted". Northern Virginia has a sizeable Arab community and Baltimore County has a sizeable Muslim (not necessarily Arab) community, and that's what I gather from conversations with people.
2. The Democratic coalition is fractured: in 2016 and 2020, pretty much all minority groups were united against Trump. Muslims and Jews, for example, voted 3-1 or so for Clinton/Biden. Black voters roughly 8-1, etc. Young voters were on board too, and Democrats made gains with White voters in Suburban areas. This time, Muslims and Jews are not necessarily on the same train. Biden's policies have created a deep crack in this coalition, in my view unnecessarily so.
3. In 2020, the death of George Floyd shocked the country, and galvanized activists just before the election. Everyone was there, from whites to blacks, from Jews to Muslims, and so on. The feeling back then that the Democratic coalition stood against that injustice. However, I hear recently questions about the lack of voices from, for example, black/african american activists against what's happening in Gaza. Something like "why doesn't this community rise against the starvation of children in Gaza just like everyone rose against the killing of black people" and "Muslims stood up with black people, but not the other way around", etc. This is bad for Biden and Democrats more generally.
4. Young voters may not be associated with the Democratic party as they did until this year. Many minority voters won't vote for Democrats anytime soon (well beyond 2024).
5. On October 6, 2023, Biden has been in office for 2 years and 9 months. What did he do to advance the Two-State Solution before the attack? Nothing. What did Obama do in 8 years to advance this solution? Nothing too, and Biden was there as well (with a lot of influence on foreign policy). There is frustration there, too, irrespective of the current tragedy in Gaza.
Biden may have just caused serious fracturing of the coalition that any Democrat needs to win important elections. Arabs/Muslims and others may not become Republicans, but many could leave the Democratic party.