2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins

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She should definitely 'do a Hillary'.

She can run for the Senate while Barack takes a seat on SCOTUS :drool:

Indeed!



https://www.change.org/p/diagnosetrump

Not sure how effective that will be, but it is definitely right. He definitely shows all the signs of NPD. Surely a medical would have to be undertaken anyway and a mental health assessment? Otherwise what's stopping a complete and utter sociopath having control of the worlds biggest weapons stash and armies?
 
Aaaaaaaaanyway... what to make of this?
http://nypost.com/2016/09/04/donald-trump-leaps-ahead-of-hillary-clinton-in-new-poll/
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-reuters-ipsos-us-election-2016-a7223241.html

Article about a 1% lead with a 3% margin of error. However, the swing of 6% is worrying. Anyone got any more insight into this poll? Is is my imagination, or have Reuters consistently scored Trump higher than other polls?

The numbers are more so related to Hillary's numbers coming back to earth after the convention and Trump's very gradually rising by way of having avoided some of the earlier mistakes he was making (Khan family etc). He hasn't made any major gaffs in a few weeks which is helping his own numbers stabilize. In essence this is little more than mean reversion coupled with a bit of negative news for Hillary regarding the email scandal and Trump keeping his nose clean for a couple of weeks. We are now back to where we were before either convention.

At this point its mainly a swing state game - and Hilary already has the numbers to win the election if it was held today. Just follow Pennsylvania and Wisconsin polls as they will tell you who will be the next President. If Pennsylvania gets swept into the Trump column then that would be a troubling sign for Hillary, as that would mean her current path to 270 would have been blocked. Also if Pennsylvania goes for Trump then there's a good chance Ohio will as well.



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As shown above, she already has enough electoral votes to reach 270 today. Trump is trying hard to lodge Pennsylvania away from her but she is still leading by about 6.2 there in the current RCP average. She's also leading in Wisconsin by 4. She could conceivably lose both those states and win Florida and still win the election, but you have to think that if she loses states like PA and WI, that other similar states like MI and OH would also trend towards Trump. That's pretty unlikely at this point but anything can happen. As for the national polls, the way the current electoral college leans slightly blue, I'd imagine Trump would need to not just catch up with Hillary in the national polls, he would have to lead her by about 3 to have a conclusive chance of scraping his way to 270.
 
As the national number changes, so will states. Don't bank on the EC if popular vote is lost.

That said, it's more or less convention bounce wearing off. Romney voters got jittery due to the Khan controversy, now it's out of sight out of mind they are swinging back to Drumpf.

Still, not even close right now. Bear in mind Obama lead Romney by 2 on average at this point 4 years ago, and more than a few reputable polls then showed Mittens effectively tied within MoE.
 
It´s that unabashed, ugly, filterless American exceptionalism on display again I suppose, and if there is a light at the end of the tunnel, it´s signalling the end of a disgusting Republican party gone mad.

I honestly think Clinton espouses more of the American exceptionalism doctrine than Trump. Still, the only horse I'd back in this race for a variety of other more important reasons is named "Not Trump".
 
It is worrying that Clinton isn't getting consistently near 50%. Although the good news is it is Johnson that seems to be picking up that vote and not Trump.

Chances still are that Trump won't be able to resist doing something or saying something ridiculous during the debates which will hurt him and after the debates there's no time to make a comeback.

Just look at what he did after the conventions.
 
It is worrying that Clinton isn't getting consistently near 50%. Although the good news is it is Johnson that seems to be picking up that vote and not Trump.

Chances still are that Trump won't be able to resist doing something or saying something ridiculous during the debates which will hurt him and after the debates there's no time to make a comeback.

Just look at what he did after the conventions.

She will never get 50% with the likes of Johnson and Stein sucking away 15% of the collective popular vote. The best she can hope for is something like 46% and Trump getting 39%. That would probably result in a 200 electoral vote win. The current 3-4 point popular vote gap between them is still good for about a 100 electoral vote win.
 
She will never get 50% with the likes of Johnson and Stein sucking away 15% of the collective popular vote. The best she can hope for is something like 46% and Trump getting 39%. That would probably result in a 200 electoral vote win. The current 3-4 point popular vote gap between them is still good for about a 100 electoral vote win.


She needs Texas to win by 200. For that to happen, she needs to blow him out by 10+ points.

The implication of not getting 50%+ has more to do with down tickets. Those voting for Stein and Johnson, especially the latter, might not be so inclined to vote Dem down the ballot. Still, it's early on. I'll eat my hat if the two of them draw anywhere close to 15%.
 
She needs Texas to win by 200. For that to happen, she needs to blow him out by 10+ points.

The implication of not getting 50%+ has more to do with down tickets. Those voting for Stein and Johnson, especially the latter, might not be so inclined to vote Dem down the ballot. Still, it's early on. I'll eat my hat if the two of them draw anywhere close to 15%.

Nope. Obama beat McCain by 7.8% in the final popular vote and won the electoral college by 192. Just add Arizona to that for Hillary and she could win by 200 plus.

2008_mov.png
 
She will never get 50% with the likes of Johnson and Stein sucking away 15% of the collective popular vote. The best she can hope for is something like 46% and Trump getting 39%. That would probably result in a 200 electoral vote win. The current 3-4 point popular vote gap between them is still good for about a 100 electoral vote win.

TBF I want him to get crushed rather than a more "traditional" win ala Obama-Romney.

Also not sure if she gets around 44-45% if the Senate will be changing hands.
 
TBF I want him to get crushed rather than a more "traditional" win ala Obama-Romney.

Also not sure if she gets around 44-45% if the Senate will be changing hands.

It would be more excruciating for them if they lost be a single state imo, which would almost certainly start up the rigged system, recount calls.
 

She'd get my vote :drool:

Washington (CNN)One of Donald Trump's top supporters insisted Sunday that the Republican nominee is backing away from one of his most controversial immigration proposals: mass deportations.

In an interview with CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union," former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani said Trump doesn't want to break up immigrant families in America.

Giuliani told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union" that Trump "would find it very, very difficult to throw out a family that has been here for 15 years and they have three children, two of whom are citizens. That is not the kind of America he wants."
Giuliani's comments follow a hardline immigration speech Trump delivered last week in Arizona. The former mayor cited an Associated Press report characterizing Trump's comments as "a sharp retreat" from his pledge during the primary season to remove all 11 million undocumented immigrants from the United States.

Still, other Republicans, including Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake, rejected the idea that Trump had softened. And Trump's running mate, Mike Pence, and campaign manager Kellyanne Conway were coy on the issue. Their comments triggered criticism from the campaign of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, over "attempts to mislead" about Trump's immigration plan.

Trump's Phoenix speech took a tough line on his signature issue of immigration. He rolled out a list of 10 proposals to crack down on illegal immigration, including building a wall along the US-Mexico border and ramping up deportations of undocumented immigrants who have committed other crimes within the United States.

"In a Trump administration, all immigration laws will be enforced," Trump said. "As with any law enforcement activity, we will set priorities. But, unlike this administration, no one will be immune or exempt from enforcement -- and ICE and Border Patrol officers will be allowed to do their jobs. Anyone who has entered the United States illegally is subject to deportation -- that is what it means to have laws and to have a country."
Trump in his speech drew a line at any form of amnesty.

"For those here today illegally who are seeking legal status, they will have one route and only one route: to return home and apply for re-entry under the rules of the new legal immigration system that I have outlined above. Those who have left to seek entry under this new system will not be awarded surplus visas, but will have to enter under the immigration caps or limits that will be established."
Trump added: "We will break the cycle of amnesty and illegal immigration. There will be no amnesty."

But on Sunday Giuliani insisted "all 10 policies are largely directed toward criminal illegal immigrants," drawing a distinction between those immigrants and others who haven't broken additional laws in the country.

Giuliani said Trump was calling for the United States to secure its borders and remove those who have committed additional crimes -- and only then address what to do with the majority of undocumented immigrants living in the United States, including so-called "Dreamers" -- undocumented immigrants brought into the country as children.

"That's the point that he was making in the speech, and I agree with you that point got lost to some extent in the emotion of the moment," Giuliani told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union" Sunday.

He chalked that emotion up to the parents of Americans slain by undocumented immigrants who shared the stage with Trump, underscoring Trump's call to end so-called "sanctuary cities" that don't deport undocumented immigrants.

Democrats said they weren't buying Giuliani's claims about Trump's stance on immigration.

"Donald Trump should have gone to the Olympics as a gymnast, because there's a lot of contortionism there," said Labor Secretary Tom Perez, a Clinton supporter, on "State of the Union."

He cited Trump's use of a Phoenix-area sheriff known for his sharp crackdown on undocumented immigrants on-stage last week.
"If you're trying to get kinder and gentler, it's a curious strategy to get Joe Arpaio to introduce you at a speech," Perez said. "He stands for what Donald Trump stands for, and that is, Mexicans are 'rapists.'"

Sen. Flake, who isn't yet supporting Trump, told Tapper on "State of the Union" that he didn't get the same message as Giuliani from Trump's speech.

"If it was there, it was buried pretty deep. And no, I didn't catch it," he said of any new indications of Trump's openness to allowing some undocumented immigrants to remain in the United States.

Of Trump's speech, Flake said: "It just really doubled down on a lot of the rhetoric that he used before, and it really didn't explain with any clarity where he's going to move ahead in the future."

Trump's vice presidential pick, Gov. Pence, on Sunday deflected questions about the fate of those undocumented immigrants who haven't committed additional crimes in the United States, on NBC's "Meet the Press."

"With all due respect to the media's focus on the 11 million or whatever that number is, he was focused on the more than 300 million people who are citizens of this country and are here legally in this country, and driving policies in immigration that will work for them, work for the future of our nation," Pence said.

Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway also wouldn't say what Trump's eventual plan for the majority of undocumented immigrants living in the United States would be.

On ABC's "This Week," Conway said that "once you enforce the law, once you get rid of the criminals, once you triple the number of ICE agents, once you secure the southern border, once you turn off the jobs magnet, jobs and benefit magnet, then we'll see where we are."

"And we don't know where we'll be. We don't know who will be left. We don't know where they live, who they are. That's the whole point here, that we've actually never tried this," Conway said. "He will rescind all those executive amnesties and try to work with the Congress. And so at least he's trying to solve a problem."

The comments by Conway and Pence brought criticism from the Clinton campaign.

"Donald Trump has stated very clearly throughout his campaign that he will deport everyone who is undocumented, something that was reinforced in his speech in Arizona last Wednesday," Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook said in statement Sunday afternoon.

"What we saw today is Mike Pence and Trump's top campaign officials attempt to mislead voters about their mass deportation policy by using soft words to describe harsh tactics -- one of the oldest tricks in the book," Mook added. "Immigrant families know the meanings of 'humane' and 'fair' and can see straight through their cynical ploys. Trump's message to immigrant families is clear: everyone must go."

They can't even decide on what is their key issue.
 
Anne Coulter melt down again. It must be very tough for a Trump spokesperson or supporter to second guess Trump from day to day.
 
I'm so confused by this whole Clinton Email thing, why didn't the FBI charge her? They literally released evidence of her not only breaking the law, but trying to evade getting caught thus proving intent. Seems like a simple thing really.
 
Nope. Obama beat McCain by 7.8% in the final popular vote and won the electoral college by 192. Just add Arizona to that for Hillary and she could win by 200 plus.

2008_mov.png

Except IN won't flip with 7 points. Demographic trend the last 8 years there hasn't been favorable.

Ultimately, it doesn't matter how much she wins by. Obama crushing EC landslides, both with a popular votes majority, didn't stop the obstruction. Midterm 2018 will be brutal for the Dems anyway.
 
Except IN won't flip with 7 points. Demographic trend the last 8 years there hasn't been favorable.

Ultimately, it doesn't matter how much she wins by. Obama crushing EC landslides, both with a popular votes majority, didn't stop the obstruction. Midterm 2018 will be brutal for the Dems anyway.

You can swap Indiana with Georgia. The main point is a 10 point win the national polls is more than enough to win an election by 200 electoral votes.
 
You can swap Indiana with Georgia. The main point is a 10 point win the national polls is more than enough to win an election by 200 electoral votes.

You said 46-39 though :confused:. If she wins by 10 then TX and GA flip.

Tbh, I'm slightly less bullish now about her prospects than before the conventions, when the margin was even tighter. The press is priming for a horse race, hence the incessant reporting of CF's 'scandals', whereas the Cheeto Jesus gets a free pass. Over the last weeks, he lied about the wall, flip flopping about his cornerstone immigration stance, hired an accused sexual abuser to be his campaign adviser, his foundation was actually found guilty of pay for play, but all we hear is email email email. Now, most of that can be chalked to Clinton going under the radar to raise money (record August haul of $143m), and we should see her number picking up against when the A-team hit the trails, starting with Sanders in NH. Yet, if the press persists with this shockingly low bar for Drumpf, he might just Forrest Gump himself to the big prize.
 
You said 46-39 though :confused:. If she wins by 10 then TX and GA flip.

Tbh, I'm slightly less bullish now about her prospects than before the conventions, when the margin was even tighter. The press is priming for a horse race, hence the incessant reporting of CF's 'scandals', whereas the Cheeto Jesus gets a free pass. Over the last weeks, he lied about the wall, flip flopping about his cornerstone immigration stance, hired an accused sexual abuser to be his campaign adviser, his foundation was actually found guilty of pay for play, but all we hear is email email email. Now, most of that can be chalked to Clinton going under the radar to raise money (record August haul of $143m), and we should see her number picking up against when the A-team hit the trails, starting with Sanders in NH. Yet, if the press persists with this shockingly low bar for Drumpf, he might just Forrest Gump himself to the big prize.

46-39 will not mean TX flips. But it would likely be enough for about a 180-200 point electoral college win similar to Obama's 192 point win in 2008 by way of a 7.8% national win.
 
I'm so confused by this whole Clinton Email thing, why didn't the FBI charge her? They literally released evidence of her not only breaking the law, but trying to evade getting caught thus proving intent. Seems like a simple thing really.


We need Americano to explain it you in his calm, informative fashion.
 
We need Americano to explain it you in his calm, informative fashion.
I would love for this to happen because this is either outright incompetency or blatant corruption. A government official who "forgot" what the term C meant simply should not be allowed to run for office.
 
I'm so confused by this whole Clinton Email thing, why didn't the FBI charge her? They literally released evidence of her not only breaking the law, but trying to evade getting caught thus proving intent. Seems like a simple thing really.

Everyone in America is asking this question and the shrinking fraction who still support Hillary cannot offer an answer. I personally think it's because James Comey (FBI Director) values his life more than justice. To say nothing of his tangled relationship with Lynch & Clinton outside of government.

Did you know that a lawyer named Sean Lucas who initiated a fraud lawsuit against the Democratic Party on June 28 was found dead on August 2nd?

An unconfirmed report holds that Lucas was found lying on the bathroom floor by his girlfriend when she returned home on the evening of 2 August 2016. Paramedics responding to her 911 call found no signs of life.
 
Everyone in America is asking this question and the shrinking fraction who still support Hillary cannot offer an answer. I personally think it's because James Comey (FBI Director) values his life more than justice. To say nothing of his tangled relationship with Lynch & Clinton outside of government.

Did you know that a lawyer named Sean Lucas who initiated a fraud lawsuit against the Democratic Party on June 28 was found dead on August 2nd?
Are you seriously suggesting hillary will have the director of the fbi whacked if he goes after her
Because thats what you post reads like... and you sound like a nutter
 
I would love for this to happen because this is either outright incompetency or blatant corruption. A government official who "forgot" what the term C meant simply should not be allowed to run for office.

You are saying exactly the same thing that every single person I speak to in real life is saying. The only place you don't hear outrage is from paid television newscasters and from people employed by "Correct the Record" to scrub the internet of anti-Clinton facts.
 
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