2018 US Elections

[Drifter]

Looks like someone finally explained to Trump that he had a bad night

Trump and his Republican Party had a terrible Tuesday night.

Not that Trump understood what was happening, as Democrats took back the House, flipped seven governorships and at least half a dozen legislative chambers, and even picked up a Senate seat in Nevada.

On Tuesday, Trump called his party’s thrashing a “tremendous success.” On Wednesday, he woke up and started whining that the media was not going to give him “proper credit for this great Midterm Election.”


But then someone apparently explained to him that actually, losing the House is a very big and very bad deal for him.

“If the Democrats think they are going to waste Taxpayer Money investigating us at the House level, then we will likewise be forced to consider investigating them for all of the leaks of Classified Information, and much else, at the Senate level,” he tweeted. “Two can play that game!”

To date, the Republican-controlled Congress has allowed Trump to do whatever he wants, refusing to perform basic constitutional oversight duties. The unchecked corruption by Trump, his family, and his administration is staggering:

• Trump is at the center of an ongoing FBI investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.
• Senior Trump officials have pleaded guilty to federal charges, including former national security adviser Michael Flynn, and campaign aides Rick Gates and George Papadopoulos.
• Trump’s campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, was found guilty on 8 counts, including multiple instances of tax and bank fraud.
• Trump’s son Donald Jr. and son-in-law Jared Kushner met with a Russian operative offering dirt on Hillary Clinton in 2016.
• Trump refused to set up a blind trust, as other presidents have in the past. This allows him to make money from the Trump businesses while also influencing operations as president.
• Senior Trump aide Kellyanne Conway used an appearance on Fox News to tell viewers to buy Ivanka Trump’s line of jewelry.
• Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump have revised their ethics disclosure documents at least 40 times after failing to disclose their conflicts of interest on official government documents.
• Walter Shaub, then-director of the Office of Government Ethics, quit his job in protest of Trump’s wholehearted embrace of public corruption while in office.
• Trump fired then-FBI Director James Comey after he refused to publicly vouch for Trump’s innocence regarding the FBI’s Russia investigation.
• Trump fired acting Attorney General Sally Yates after she refused to implement his bigoted ban on Muslim travel. He then tried to block her from testifying about Russian election interference.
• Trump has spent 210 days at his properties, including 159 days at his golf properties. This has allowed him to use the presidency as a vehicle to advertise his private holdings.
• Trump’s D.C. hotel charges a premium over similar hotels in the area, where people stay as a way to curry Trump’s favor and gain influence over his administration. He profits personally from that premium.
• Trump gave multiple people who could not pass a background check access to “Top Secret” material. Those people include Jared Kushner and Trump aide Rob Porter, who was accused of spousal abuse.
• Scott Pruitt, Trump’s former EPA chief, was deeply involved in multiple scandals, including renting property from a lobbyist at cut-rate prices and going on luxury vacations at taxpayer expense.
• Tom Price, Trump’s then-HHS secretary, was forced out after he was exposed for traveling on private jets using tax dollars.
• Ryan Zinke, Trump’s secretary of the Interior Department, and his senior aide Kellyanne Conway flew on private jets with taxpayer funds.

But now that Democrats will control the House and will have the power to investigate Trump’s crimes and misdemeanors, Trump’s free ride is over.

No more will lapdogs like Republican Rep. Devin Nunes be in charge of the committees that have plainly refused to hold the Trump team accountable. Those many questions about Trump’s tax cheating, conflicts of interest, obstruction of justice, and possible collusion with Russia will finally get the congressional attention they — and the American people — deserve.

And finally, after allowing Trump to embarrass himself by pretending Tuesday night was a victory for the GOP, someone sat Trump down and let him know that he is in serious trouble.

Trump’s ridiculous, nonsensical threat to somehow order the Senate to investigate the House as retribution for investigating Trump isn’t going to save him. Nor does it make him look any less guilty.

The grown-ups are going to be in charge, and the grown-ups are not going to let the tantrum-throwing toddler in chief run roughshod over the country and the Constitution one minute longer.

https://shareblue.com/looks-like-someone-finally-explained-to-trump-that-he-had-a-bad-night/

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

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Ohio is bad. Clinton was washed out. The governor lost today. Sherrod Brown, despite being solidly progressive on most issues, has a lock on the state, but it seems personal rather than policy-based.

For all the sticks we give the Tangerine God Emperor, it’s clear he activated a part of the electorate and changed the electoral math in traditional battlegrounds. Exurban and rural communities turn out for him don’t seem to let up.

And this is why his hold on OH/FL is more secured than Dems with their urban centres like Milwaukee, Detroit, Philadelphia.

 

[ManUtd1999]

I think the lesson from last night for 2020 is that there's only 1 path open to the Dems - the midwest.
Texas is obviously out of play. It always has been and (always?) will be.
Florida is out of reach - neither the moderate white man nor the progressive black man (nor the moderate white woman and right-wing white man of 2016) got through. Arizona is out of play given how wide the governors' margin was.
Ohio is bad. Clinton was washed out. The governor lost today. Sherrod Brown, despite being solidly progressive on most issues, has a lock on the state, but it seems personal rather than policy-based.

It leaves Michigan, Penn, and Wisconsin. All three are doable but difficult. I think they are the only path to victory, and based on conventional knowledge, it will have to be Biden or Bernie that can do it. They need unions mobilised.

At the same time, defend the narrow Clinton wins of New Mexico, NH, Nevada, and Virginia.


I think this map is about as difficult for Dems in 2020 as it was for Trump in 2016.

I agree that Texas and Arizona are not in play in presidential election just yet, especially the former.

As for Florida--it's a tough and unpredictable state, but we saw it shifting from Clinton to Bush (twice) to Obama (twice) and now to Trump/GOP. It can still go to Democrats. The thing about Florida is that you need to shift only a small percentage of voters to win it. Notice the margins in recent presidential elections:
2012: 50.01% 49.13%
2016: 49.02% 47.82%
The margins yesterday: 0.5-1%.

That's incredibly tight, and that's why it's possible to flip this state. It's also interesting to see how allowing felons to vote will affect the outcomes in this state.

 

[adexkola]

And that's why I love black women

 

[Red Dreams]

Trump will be heavily damaged by all the corruption charges. He will limp to the nomination.
FL and OH are well within reach of an honest candidate.

The path for Trump and any Republican is very narrow going forward.

 

[Revan]

Look, whilst I support Hillary's position (mainly foreign policy), I'm not advocating her as a candidate in 2020. I don't think she'll do it again unless there's clear evidence that 2016 was stolen from her.

I'm not sure if a progressive has a better chance than a centrist. Based on the results last night, whilst Beto & Gillum got very close, they couldn't pull it off.

Beto lost Texas for 2.6%, Hillary lost for 9%. Gillum lost it for 0.7%, Hillary lost for 1.2%.

Essentially progressives did much better than Hillary in both races (especially Texas).

 

[unchanged_lineup]

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[Ekkie Thump]

So we've got a recount in Florida that we can wishcast at, a "possible" recount in Arizona if absentee ballots come in favourably and a reasonably likely hold in Montana. I reckon there's at least a 5% chance that Dems only lose a net 1 senate seat.

 

[Revan]

So we've got a recount in Florida that we can wishcast at, a "possible" recount in Arizona if absentee ballots come in favourably and a reasonably likely hold in Montana. I reckon there's at least a 5% chance that Dems only lose a net 1 senate seat.

There is also the second round on Mississippi but Reps will win relatively easy.

If Dems win both Arizona and Montana, then it is a very good election for Dems.

 

[ManUtd1999]

So we've got a recount in Florida that we can wishcast at, a "possible" recount in Arizona if absentee ballots come in favourably and a reasonably likely hold in Montana. I reckon there's at least a 5% chance that Dems only lose a net 1 senate seat.

Honestly, democrats did well yesterday. The fact that we were competitive in senate races in TX and AZ is encouraging.

 

[JulesWinnfield]

Looks like someone finally explained to Trump that he had a bad night



https://shareblue.com/looks-like-someone-finally-explained-to-trump-that-he-had-a-bad-night/

The truth lies somewhere in the middle, naturally Trump is overplaying the success, but then there's a lot of underplaying it as well.

The fact is it went a lot better for the Republicans - maintaining the house and the senate is always difficult for the incumbent, its better than a lot of people expected, 2 years of Trump and he's doing better with the voters than most will care to admit.

All these claims of disaster and blue surges, proclamations of huge victories, I can't help but feel they're just counterproductive to the democrat cause. The people who come out to vote when they see all that are the Republican voters.

 

[2ndTouch]

It's also interesting to see how allowing felons to vote will affect the outcomes in this state.

Not at all, as DeSantis will purge the ballots from all these voters anyway...

 

[Sweet Square]

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[Suedesi]

It’s a good night. Not as good as could’ve possibly been, but good.

Gaining control of House of Representatives = gaining oversight power over the administration, they can set up investigatory committees, subpoena documents/witnesses, protect Mueller and his team (reinstate him in case the FBI director fired him). Above all, they hold the power of the purse. No budget proposal by the White House (including changes to the current healthcare system) can pass without the House’s approval. So, short term gains. No more tax cuts, no more healthcare repeal, more investigations.

Now, long term pains. They lost 3, maybe even 4 seats in the Senate. This is in line with expectations, perhaps a little worse off, but it’s still a loss. All this means Republicans are free for the next two years to jam-pack the federal courts with rightwing judges in their 40/50s for lifetime appointments. They will rule in favour of big corporations, destroying climate and safety standards regulations, reject voting rights lawsuits, union brokering power, arbitration etc... these will have an impact for decades and can’t be undone by the next Democratic president.

I also have a few thoughts on what it means for 2020, will copy paste it in the edit.

Edit:

It’s good news for Trump in the sense that he’s holding strong in 2 very valuable battlegrounds (OH+FL) which allows him to divert all his time and resources into the Midwest (all of which his number is underwater, but not by much, 46/48%). The Dems still have a clear path to the presidency (every traditional strongholds + NV which they have won for 3 cycles in a row and now have the governor and both senators as well as the legislation + the 3 Midwest states that went Dems every time 6 cycles in a row until 2016, and have now flipped back this mid term - gov in MI, WI, PA, majority of congressional districts), however, they have basically no margin or error to play around with and any slip up = 4 more years.

That’s why it’s imperative that the 2020 primary is not divisive and they nominate someone with appeal to the Midwest. None of Cory Booker or Harris or Warren can cut the mustard, and possibly Biden. Bernie is strong here but there might be establishment remnants that is dead set against him who can swing the result. Basically cut a deal to all get behind him or someone like Sherrod Brown.

On the other hand, maybe Amendment 4 will prove pivotal and 1.5m ex-felons will come up big for Dems. I’m not counting on it with De Santis being governor, however.

Good analysis overall, I think you hit the right notes.

On your last paragraph, I totally agree with the Amendment 4 in the sense that once you do your time your debt to society is paid - I think the fact that most so-called racist Republicans voted for this proposition should not get lost in the shuffle.

However, I also think it's in somewhat poor taste to see Florida restore the voting rights of felons, and immediately be all "Wow, just think of all the black ex-felons who will now vote democrat!" The assumption that they are mostly black people strikes me as a bit racialist

 

[Drifter]

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This is why she needs to go and go soon.She answers to corporate donors ,that is it.

 

[Sweet Square]

This is why she needs to go and go soon.She answers to corporate donors ,that is it.

There's more

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[berbatrick]

I agree that Texas and Arizona are not in play in presidential election just yet, especially the former.

As for Florida--it's a tough and unpredictable state, but we saw it shifting from Clinton to Bush (twice) to Obama (twice) and now to Trump/GOP. It can still go to Democrats. The thing about Florida is that you need to shift only a small percentage of voters to win it. Notice the margins in recent presidential elections:
2012: 50.01% 49.13%
2016: 49.02% 47.82%
The margins yesterday: 0.5-1%.

That's incredibly tight, and that's why it's possible to flip this state. It's also interesting to see how allowing felons to vote will affect the outcomes in this state.

I agree that it can be tight - but Gilllum and Nelson were two contrasting candidates who couldn't make it in a wave year. These new voters are an unknown but these vast change fantasies don't tend to work, like "Demographics will flip Texas by 2016" (I think this was the Dem line from 2008).


edit - IMO the Dems shouldn't rely on Florida when building their path. The midwest looks likelier - higher disapproval of Trump, and some semblance of union organisation that remains and now, Democratic governors in 3 of the 4 relevant states.

 

[Eboue]

Technically speaking there aren’t enough people in your state to merit 1 representative.

I know. The framers were dumb as shit and the constitution they produced proves it

 

[Fergies Gum]

He is trailing by 3k at the moment. Can go either way.

Who knows, quite a few big parties in US became irrelevant with time changing. The demographics are massively in favor of Dems.

Ideally, you would want the two big parties to be a center-left party (essentially Bernie and co.), a center right party (Hillary and pre-Reagan Republicans) and then many parties in all sides to keep them in check. Like in most of the Western world.

Instead US has a neo-fascist party and a center-right party as their 2 main parties.

When i posted that, Tester was ahead by around 1000 votes and that figure still remains the same. The problem is that some of the sites are slower than others in how quick they show the results.

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

Good analysis overall, I think you hit the right notes.

On your last paragraph, I totally agree with the Amendment 4 in the sense that once you do your time your debt to society is paid - I think the fact that most so-called racist Republicans voted for this proposition should not get lost in the shuffle.

However, I also think it's in somewhat poor taste to see Florida restore the voting rights of felons, and immediately be all "Wow, just think of all the black ex-felons who will now vote democrat!" The assumption that they are mostly black people strikes me as a bit racialist

It’s not an assumption, it’s a fact. I also didnt say anything about their racial make up, but if I have to guess, they are disproportionately black and Hispanic.

Black people, who are disproportionately arrested and incarcerated, will benefit the most. In 2016, more than 418,000 black people out of a black voting-age population of more than 2.3 million, or 17.9 percent of potential black voters in Florida, had finished sentences but couldn’t vote due to a felony record, according to the Sentencing Project. (Again, this includes some people convicted of murders and felony sex offenses.)

Also, ‘most’ is being very kind for Republicans. The Amendment passed with 64.5% support. Assuming a 32-34-34 split, at best half of them voted for it.

 

[Eboue]

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For all the sticks we give the Tangerine God Emperor, it’s clear he activated a part of the electorate and changed the electoral math in traditional battlegrounds. Exurban and rural communities turn out for him don’t seem to let up.

And this is why his hold on OH/FL is more secured than Dems with their urban centres like Milwaukee, Detroit, Philadelphia.

But ohio has plenty of urban centers. More than michigan and Wisconsin.

 

[Minimalist]

The replies, they are devastated.

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Americans are fecking weird.

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

There's more

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Did you read that Politico article on sex preferences by party? Dems certainly live up to their masochism fantasies:

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

But ohio has plenty of urban centers. More than michigan and Wisconsin.

The point is Dem are no longer especially good at drawing votes out of their urban centres, while Trump is having success with the increasing exurban area, rundown towns centered around plants etc... The so-called Obama-Trump voters.

Also the bleeding from those urban centres are a big problem. Young people are leaving area like Cleveland and surrounding suburbs. Franklin has been close for a while but it passed Cuyahoga on % yesterday.

 

[Sweet Square]

Did you read that Politico article on sex preferences by party? Dems certainly live up to their masochism fantasies:

What this ? No I haven't, have you got a link ?

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

What this ? No I haven't, have you got a link ?

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www...ntasies-republicans-democrats-politics-221919

 

[Pink Moon]

For all the sticks we give the Tangerine God Emperor, it’s clear he activated a part of the electorate and changed the electoral math in traditional battlegrounds. Exurban and rural communities turn out for him don’t seem to let up.

That's because he's an uneducated, racist, bigoted moron who gives uneducated, racist, bigoted morons such a grand platform. He emboldens the absolute lowest of the low. And the number of those in America is frighteningly large.

For a state with so much at stake environmentally as Florida it's going to be sweet when they realise just how much they fecked up by siding with the GOP. I guess the number of #MAGA #Conservative #ProudChristian tools in the state outnumber those with a modicum of common sense.

 

[Fergies Gum]

There's more

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She's in no fit state to be speaker of the house.

 

[fishfingers15]

It is a sobering but Trump has a clear path to 2020 reelection. Let's be honest, impeachment and Mueller investigation are all good for news and excitement but it's not going to touch him. Dems have to pull their fingers out of the asses and have a sedate and unifying primary and get the right candidate. Not sure it's Bernie Sanders anymore but sure as feck it's not one of the Clinton cronies (note that I'm not even name checking Mrs. Voldemort)

 

[Boycott]

Did you read that Politico article on sex preferences by party? Dems certainly live up to their masochism fantasies:

Her daughter certainly enjoyed being in close company with George W Bush

 

[villain]

And that's why I love black women

We love you too

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I'm definitely obsessed with American politics, it's fascinating real life drama. Has there ever been a western government so openly corrupt, bigoted and divisive? All the criminal investigations going on against Trump and his cronies, all the guilty pleas still awaiting sentencing because they have turned against their former master. Yet despite it all.. half the US still seems to support the republican party. Its mind boggling and it's juicy stuff, better than anything on netflix. This time is going to be written about for decades, I enjoy following it all in real time. Just a damn shame it actually affects the entire world too.

I don't think there is any issue with a personal fascination, its more how it leads domestic news agenda.

 

[Sweet Square]

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www...ntasies-republicans-democrats-politics-221919

Thanks

Jesus! I might have go and scrub my brain after reading, scary stuff. I mean the Dems are always talking about how those nasty, mean, corrupt Republicans are alway getting way with it and never being punished, maybe there is something to that article.

Although on a somewhat serious point I do think a lot of people are Democratic's not for political reasons but because they view themselves as good people, the 2016 Clinton campaign really was vote for us because we are nice and good (The Trump campaign being the opposite but also the same - deplorable but proud of it).

 

[Sweet Square]

She's in no fit state to be speaker of the house.

I don't think she should be able to drive any sort of heavy machinery, her brain has completely gone to mush.

 

[villain]

However, I also think it's in somewhat poor taste to see Florida restore the voting rights of felons, and immediately be all "Wow, just think of all the black ex-felons who will now vote democrat!" The assumption that they are mostly black people strikes me as a bit racialist

You're just highlighting your own ignorance here. It's not racist to point out that most felons are likely to be black and hispanic in Florida, they are charged for crimes - especially relating to drugs - at a much higher rate than whites. So of course if they are given the right to vote, the majority of them will be black & hispanic.

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

Although on a somewhat serious point I do think a lot people are Democratic's not for political reasons but because they view themselves as good people, the 2016 Clinton campaign really was vote for us because we are nice and good people(The Trump campaign being the opposite but also the same - deplorable but proud of it).

And it’s probably one of the reasons why they lost.

No offence to our Yanks here, who all seem to be sane and balanced, but the default American mindset does feel like ‘we are the best and you all can go suck it’, doesn’t seem like a receptive bunch to ‘they go low, we go high’.

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

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[Suedesi]

It’s not an assumption, it’s a fact. I also didnt say anything about their racial make up, but if I have to guess, they are disproportionately black and Hispanic.



Also, ‘most’ is being very kind for Republicans. The Amendment passed with 64.5% support. Assuming a 32-34-34 split, at best half of them voted for it.

I don't know why you assume that - Amendment 4 had broad support overall and was sponsored by disparate groups such as the ACLU and Koch Brothers. Most people believe that when individuals have served their sentences and paid their debts as ordered by a judge, they should be allowed to vote

Secondly, even though black people are disproportionately represented, they’re also still a minority — about 28 percent — of those who got their voting rights back. So it may not be as favorable for Democrats as one would think. Latinos don't vote as a block and Aryan Brotherhood would probably not vote Democrat if they bother to vote at all.

Anyways, nice chatting with you.

 

[Sweet Square]

And it’s probably one of the reasons why they lost.

No offence to our Yanks here, who all seem to be sane and balanced, but the default American mindset does feel like ‘we are the best and you all can go suck it’, doesn’t seem like a receptive bunch to ‘they go low, we go high’.

Although if there are any kinky Dems reading this, if you think candle wax and leather straps are intensely painful try reading this without any help

Spoiler

a level of self abuse you'll never forget

 

[Grinner]

Good thing we don't have to see Jeff Flake ever again.