2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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Tincanalley

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Yup. And that’s the issue. Watching CNN now it is “fake news”. They’re spinning Biden as some amazing candidate...the total opposite of Trump. It’s just bollocks.
Anybody with a scintilla of decency is the total opposite of Trump. Just enjoy the celebration
 

Redplane

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Look at large swaths of the red in this country. Much of it is what we call ‘flyover states,’ places that aren’t a positive force in this country. This is what I consider worthless.

Another ground zero of worthlessness is NW Georgia, the location where the new Qanon congressman is from. The cultural bedrock of NW Georgia is the assortment of outlet malls. It is the collection of negative societal discharge that met after it flowed from Atlanta & Knoxville. It’s a strip of absurdity that exists solely because an interstate runs through it.

In other words, worthless.
And this is why people vote Republican instead. Im in the US and in Michigan. The flyover state thing is incredibly insulting and elitist coming from primarily the coasts.
 

calodo2003

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And this is why people vote Republican instead. Im in the US and in Michigan. The flyover state thing is incredibly insulting and elitist coming from primarily the coasts.
Don’t deny that. There’s some validity in your statement. I tend to be bigoted towards those who profess aggressive ignorance.

No worries, though.

It’s not a blanket assessment from me regarding everyone or all of those locations in this country, that’s just how I view a considerable portion of them / that.
 

owlo

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Net worth of the top 1% starts at 10m, apparently. Top 10% starts at a little over 1m. So 2m is upper class but short of elite, in my opinion anyway.
That's pretty much my thoughts on it. It's successful middle/upper-middle class, but nowhere close to elite.

That's 4x the average mortgage size and the monthly repayments alone would be triple the average income after tax leaving nothing for anything else. Not to mention the casual half a million downpayment that absolutely nobody outside of the upper class happens to have sitting around in their bank accounts.
'upper class' and elite are two wildly different things though. And you don't need a half million downpayment.

2 million worth in the US is not an elite. A senior doctor in the UK can be valued around the same figure.
Exactly. Doctors, Lawyers, Dentists, Engineers etc. Probably all worth that once they hit 50.

Yes most people in the UK that live outside London would consider those who can afford a 3 bed semi in London to be very much out of touch with their struggles and priorities, and not someone who can claim to speak for them. So when he says he is not part of the elite, he is either being disingenous, or doesn't understand the point being made. Rich people on TV are not the voice of the people. They can remain very much in touch with the people's needs by speaking to them, and he is better than most of his peers on that channel, but how his children perceive the world is not the way most people do. The technical classification of an elite is much less important than the context the point is being made in. You will find many, many people that would have no problem calling millions of people in the US part of the elite, many of whom exist in the media, even if it doesn't meet a precise definition you're comfortable with.
Those people couldn't always afford that 3 bed semi in most cases. They worked their asses off for it. Just because they climbed the mountain does not mean they didn't start at the bottom. As for his children, in the UK $2m wouldn't be enough to send your kids to private school or anything. They may win the area postcode a bit and get better/less deprived schools, but have the same healthcare and opportunities as most kids. We're not talking Boris or Rees-Mogg here.
 

InfiniteBoredom

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Looking back I think market's 67% for Biden is a lot better guess than Economist's 97%.
Market will always be more conservative than statistical analysis, because it’s real money at stake and people, both bookies and punters, are more reserved as a result. When it’s off, it’s off just as badly. Brexit, 2016, UK 2017 (Tories majority). The wild fluctuation of odds when results dripped in reflect people reaction and expectations, often on imperfect info. If we’d taken a snapshot of the odds at 10 pm Tuesday, no one would have said it was predictive. Election went on for another 4 days.
 
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That's pretty much my thoughts on it. It's successful middle/upper-middle class, but nowhere close to elite.



'upper class' and elite are two wildly different things though. And you don't need a half million downpayment.



Exactly. Doctors, Lawyers, Dentists, Engineers etc. Probably all worth that once they hit 50.



Those people couldn't always afford that 3 bed semi in most cases. They worked their asses off for it. Just because they climbed the mountain does not mean they didn't start at the bottom. As for his children, in the UK $2m wouldn't be enough to send your kids to private school or anything. They may win the area postcode a bit and get better/less deprived schools, but have the same healthcare and opportunities as most kids. We're not talking Boris or Rees-Mogg here.
Eton charges about £40k a year? and Winchester.

(Sorry if I've misunderstood, watching film as well as on Caf.)
 
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calodo2003

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My favourite three states: (I haven't been to every one) - Colorado, Montana, and Texas. Not sure if these are considered 'flyovers' but they are fecking stunning places.
All with quality, no doubt, especially the first two.

Maybe one might be. The term isn’t blanket or rock solid, there’s not much else to choose from.
 

owlo

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4.5k from pre-election. 3.5k from a 1k bet when odds climbed.

Market is reactive, not predictive.
Nice! Pre- market or election night mainly?

Made a bit more myself and I do agree odds climing to over 5 for Biden was ridiculous, but to totally dismiss betting market is also ridiculous. Truth unsurprisingly lies somewhere in the middle.
Good work lads. Only bets I actually placed on election night were that he'll be removed by either impeachment or the 25th amendment. Just a small one for fun.
 

massi83

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Market will always be more conservative than statistical analysis, because it’s real money at stake and people, both bookies and punters, are more reserved as a result. When it’s off, it’s off just as badly. Brexit, 2016, UK 2017 (Tories majority). The wild fluctuation of odds when results dripped in reflect people reaction and expectations, often on imperfect info. If we’d taken a snapshot of the odds at 10 pm Tuesday, no one would have said it was predictive. Election went on for another 4 days.
In this case bookies were just following betfair market. While it was Betfair's biggest betting event ever it was still "only" around 600m. A hedge fund or couple of rich guys could easily move that market, if they thought it was 97%.

I bet around 10% of my net worth on Biden thinking 538's model was good (and other information I researched). I consider my bet to have been too big in retrospect and basicly I got lucky. I think it was still +ev bet, but by a lot less than I thought on Monday.

But better to be lucky than good!
 

Redplane

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Don’t deny that. There’s some validity in your statement. I tend to be bigoted towards those who profess aggressive ignorance.

No worries, though.

It’s not a blanket assessment from me regarding everyone or all of those locations in this country, that’s just how I view a considerable portion of them / that.
Meanwhile the only people who think highly of Florida seem to only be our flyover state snowbirds who..aren't progressive.
 

owlo

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All with quality, no doubt, especially the first two.

Maybe one might be. The term isn’t blanket or rock solid, there’s not much else to choose from.
I spent my youth at 16-17 in homeless shelters in Rusholme and Hulme. Little England all around, so little to live of from social security that we spent our time picking up old fag ends off the streets to roll cigarettes. A tiny world of maybe 3 square miles. When I flew in to Texas (Dallas Fort Worth) at 17, just after 9/11 it was like nothing I'd ever known. Purely massive, rolling fields everywhere, people so welcoming and friendly compared to in the UK. Everything was so damned big, so damned cheap. And the girl was cute too. So overwhelming and inspiring. It was like nirvana for me.
 

decorativeed

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I was referring to with a mortgage. Eventually you'd own it. And people generally have other assets too. I honestly don't feel $2m qualifies as 'the elite.' Perhaps I'm out of touch.
How many people in the world do you think have the ability to get a 2m mortgage? A tiny percentage. An elite level of people, you might say.
 

Eckers99

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Wtf does that even mean.
It means that some Democrats will refuse to even engage with the scale of the problems in that country and that they'll just spend 4 years making snide, unhelpful comments. Luckily, I'm sure Biden will be much smarter than that.
 
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