Yes when he is given a chance he is going to runaway with it. No matter what the FBI messed up the Flynn case. Give Trump an inch and he will take a mile.
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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So in summary, bet markets follow the polls yes ?
Polling is obviously one of the major factors taken into account but bettors will look at other things as well.
I don't know about 538's election model. Their football model is pretty much useless, i.e. you cannot profit betting 538 vs Pinnacle and there is no correlation between their predictions and actual outcomes.
I'm talking about the polling average, no model at all.
Yes. Markets follow widely held views/knowledge. When it comes to elections, polls and models are widely held knowledge. One person might have an entirely different model that means they're confident in placing a large bet either way based on a different view than the average, but that person won't move the market on their own.
538 is named after the number of electoral votes in the US presidential election. So I also don't know about their football models, but the election model is their genesis. Now I'm not claiming they're infallible or all knowing, but based on the last election I'm generally looking at them for one of the more reliable views on the election outcome.
Betting market was heavily for Clinton even on election night, and only swung as the night went on, closely matching the NYT’s needle.
There’s no secret sauce or knowledge exclusive to the market, it’s just people, some rely on hunches, but most follow commonly held opinions from news sources/election forecasters.
There’s no secret sauce or knowledge exclusive to the market, it’s just people, some rely on hunches, but most follow commonly held opinions from news sources/election forecasters.
My impressions as well. It seems like betting markets follow polls and therefore by extension, participants in markets are merely lagging indicators to what likely voters are telling pollsters they plan on doing.
Just save yourself the heartbreak and forget about Florida. Florida is a lost cause. We elected Marco Rubio, Rick Scott, and Ron Desantis in recent times. Tampa is supposed to be a blue area yet I see big ass Trump flags flying from boats and trucks, and Trump signs around my neighborhood.
I mean... if you're going to oversee imperialist wars that kill hundreds of thousands of innocent people, what matter does sexual assault pose?
The Biden campaign sure is turning liberals into conservatives at some speed.
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What To Make Of Those New Senate Polls That Have Democrats Way Ahead
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...w-senate-polls-that-have-democrats-way-ahead/
Pinch of salt to be taken.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...w-senate-polls-that-have-democrats-way-ahead/
Pinch of salt to be taken.
At this rate we may see Glenn Greenwald go on Tucker Carlson's show.
Yeah as a kid I was annoyed when Ric Flair left WWF for WCW so I can understand how you feel.
But seriously shouldn't this worry people
I understand the whole just get Trump out of office but a underrated consequence could be a Biden presidency moving the party rightwards.
He said liberals.
I have adjusted my expectations, but I'm still pretty sure that if the election goes ahead on November 3rd, by 7-8 pm or whatever time it is that we start getting East coast results but not any Midwest results yet, we will all inevitably be glued to each minute update of Florida results and hoping that it's blue enough in SE FL to offset when the panhandle votes start coming in. I know that I should expect less but the way the results come in will inevitably tease me that the night could be over early (Biden winning FL).
All this talk of odds sent me looking for current ones. I got a little sick when I saw who was 3rd: Hillary.
https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/2020-usa-presidential-odds-futures
https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/2020-usa-presidential-odds-futures
Which would make it doubly perverse if someone to the left of liberals did it.
Don't do this to yourself. Bail out while you're still sane and good looking.
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Democrats just got destroyed in CA25 election. Lost by 10 points.
Never underestimate a centrist democrat to lose!!
Never underestimate a centrist democrat to lose!!
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Congrats progressive candidate Kara Eastman.
https://www.businessinsider.com/neb...nn-ashford-live-results-2020-5?op=1&r=US&IR=T
https://www.businessinsider.com/neb...nn-ashford-live-results-2020-5?op=1&r=US&IR=T
progressive Dem wins Nebraska
Centrist Dem gets humilitated in California.
Peak Schadenfreude
It’s not even a conservative seat, it’s the one they held after the midterm.
When the top of the ticket is this lackluster with base, anything and everything is possible.
Establishment Dems just don't get it or choose to ignore it . Katy Hill was a progressive who flipped this county during the election, but they still went with the middle of the road candidate.
Biden says Ocasio - Cortez to be on policy campaign panel. Not sure it will win over progressives ,but at least there is a voice in there.
Not particularly surprising given that the district has historically (in liberal California Republican terms) leaned right. Dubya, Romney, Carly Fiorina and Arnold Schwarzenegger each carried it.
The Dems ran one of the better known progressive pundits in the country - who has a platform that reach millions of progressive voters, and he lost by a decent margin.
Decent chance this seat goes back to the Dems this cycle imo.
Betting markets are excellent with sports betting because freely available information such as form, which most bettors implicitly use, is quite predictive. But I don't think they are better than polls for elections especially since more accurate prediction methods have been in use.
You can find loads of papers on researchgate about this.
Biden up by 5 in the latest CNN poll.
Two ways to look at this:
1) Biden having a consistent lead over Trump in the +5-6 region shows his vote is largely steady and isn't fluctuating or is as volatile's as Clintons lead was.
2) Being up only 5 points against a guy who's handled a pandemic that's led to 80,000+ dead (and probably closer 150,000 by August) and nearly 15% unemployment is a little concerning.
Joe Biden needs to come out off the sidelines and start clobbering this guy pronto. Trump can't keep getting away with setting the narrative and he's beginning to gradually eat away at Biden's lead.
Two ways to look at this:
1) Biden having a consistent lead over Trump in the +5-6 region shows his vote is largely steady and isn't fluctuating or is as volatile's as Clintons lead was.
2) Being up only 5 points against a guy who's handled a pandemic that's led to 80,000+ dead (and probably closer 150,000 by August) and nearly 15% unemployment is a little concerning.
Joe Biden needs to come out off the sidelines and start clobbering this guy pronto. Trump can't keep getting away with setting the narrative and he's beginning to gradually eat away at Biden's lead.
’When your enemy is making a mistake, let him.’
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Its probably down to the fact that Trump's numbers have been stuck in the low 40s for over 3 years and so whoever is running against him is bound to have a 5-10 point advantage in the national polls.
Yeah but as I say those poll leads are starting to shrink a bit now, his RCP lead is down to +4.5, getting closer to the margin of error, not great when you think Clinton still lost the election with a +2.1 national vote.
This is a pandemic with 83,000+ dead and 15% percent unemployment, the democrats are basically 1-0 up with 20 minutes gone and instead of going to 2, 3 or 4 they've shut up shop and trying to see the game out passing around the back, its too cautious for me.
In the context of the catastrophic times we're now in Trump shouldn't be within 5 points of Biden.
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He’s never going to get much further ahead, as nearly everything is already baked in. We are mostly dealing in the margins of voters who do or do not believe Donald is keeping their income secure now.
Biden can sit in the background while everything falls apart, as it possibly will with states aggressively opening back up.
The less Biden wins by the less likely he takes the senate given 90% of voting in a GE is straight ticket.
Lets be honest Biden's not a great candidate if this was Obama or even Clinton of the 90s or their RCP average would up around near 10 points, he's closer to quality of Kerry or Hillary than he is of the former two.
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Agree a lot with this but would add the caveat that a huge amount of HRC’s popular vote margin was in California (where Hillary got over a million more votes than Biden did in the 2016 and 2020 primaries respectively). She beat Trump by a margin of well over 4 million (I think 4.3) votes in CA: for comparison, Obama’s winning margins were 3.2 million in 08 and just over 3 million in 2012. She also won more votes than Obama in either of those elections: 8.75 million vs 8.27 in 2008 and 7.85 in 2012. McCain and Romney both got more votes in CA than Trump, too (McCain actually broke 5 million). Hillary’s winning margin was the biggest in CA since FDR, and without CA Trump won the popular vote by 1.5 million.
So, Hillary’s popular vote margin of under 3 million includes a margin increase of 1 million CA voters (I do margin increase rather than margin of victory because a republican isn’t winning California, there will always be a margin of victory) that added nothing for her but to make her popular vote margin of victory bigger by more than 50%.
A lead of 4.5 spread more...efficiently around states (not guaranteed sure, but a possibility supported by respective primary performances in midwest states and the fact that Biden, like most, is unlikely to hit FDR numbers in CA as Clinton did since no one else has either) could /would see a big electoral college swing. I don’t have numbers to hand of states that Dems could benefit in as a result but that could easily be looked up by someone with the time.
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