Fair enough.
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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Am puting off some work past 2 days so I had some time to dig into the data. Looked at Yougov from August 9, 2016, the most recent Yougov, and the 2016 exit poll. Looked at the swings within each group. THe problem for the 2016 Yougov was the large number of DK/3rd parties (especially Gary Johnson, who was at 10% most of which seems to have gone to Trump in November), so I excluded all that and looked at the 2-person vote only.
tl;dr - Clinton maxed out what a centrist can do among women, black, and young people. The swing is coming from men not women. Ths data from Hispanics is inconsistent. The age trend is weirder than I thought, the boomers are equal to the overall swing mostly, the big change is 45-64. OTOH, 30-45 are stagnant or leaving the party in significant numbers.
The most consistent effect is people earning over 100k, going from a roughly even split to 60% Biden.
Specualting - Bernie would be doing much worse with 45-64 and much better with 30-44, marginally worse with 65+. Much, much worse with >100k. Marginally better with 18-29, <50k and blacks and hispanics. Overall significanly worse but probably still in the lead.
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I think in the previous election they may have existed; voting Trump was like a guilty pleasure. He wasn't taken seriously, and for many he was someone who said out loud the dirty things they were afraid to, or he was a protest vote against the establishment.
Since then the "deplorables" have been emboldened and are very vocal both about their views and with their support.
Also thanks for the link about the intersection between the new age and fascist beliefs you posted yesterday, I found it very interesting.
I'm absolutely shocked. Thanks for posting. Should I vote twice to make sure this guy shouldn't become president?
Trump says he'll spend "whatever it takes" of his own money to win
https://www.axios.com/trump-campaign-self-funding-8828d492-d411-4fbe-a995-52101e5fa0f5.html
Thought they were flush with money. The Mooch was asking where the $200 million went, with these grifters and crooks, could be anywhere.
https://www.axios.com/trump-campaign-self-funding-8828d492-d411-4fbe-a995-52101e5fa0f5.html
Thought they were flush with money. The Mooch was asking where the $200 million went, with these grifters and crooks, could be anywhere.
Good. Not sure why those things should even be remotely close to being priorities. Especially now. Youre falling for the divide and conquer strategy if those are the types of things to get angry about.
It will get a rise out of the armchair purists.
When policy frameworks are released
When policy frameworks are ignored
A framework is just that. A framework. A concept. A foundation. What it is not typically not, is something thats set in stone.
then why on earth should anyone take seriously biden and bernie workng together? my point all along has been that this shit is meaningless.
There is no junior partner in the coalition, there is no seat at the table. The left lost and that is the meaning of defeat. When Bernie has already pledged his support the moment he dropped out, why should Biden give him any more say? I mean this sincerely - releasing progressive policy cannot make Bernie endorse him more, but releasing conservative policy can get more white retirees to vote for him.
It's why @shamans and @Boycott are the best biden people in this thread. They are open enemies of progressive principles and know what they're backing. The only benefit of Biden being president, as one of them said, is that Trump isn't. Every self-proclaimed progressive and especially leftist could vote for Biden with that in mind. You have lost and will continue to lose, but so Trump will lose too.
What I can't stand is the notion among serious policy people and journalists pouring over manifestoes and plans and policy frameworks that the left will gain even a hint of power or relevance or policy victory by Trump losing. What will happen is further suburban entry to th Democrats and at least 16-20 years of wilderness for the left while we wait for them to die. Not surprised that some of the people who took Warren seriously believe what has been obvious spin right from June.
Would you say he’s trying to satisfy his corporate donors over his progressive sponsors?
certainly looks like it but it makes sense! his own history, the voters he's chasing, the people who turn out at the polls, everything makes sense to go more centre or right. that's why i had a meltdown here in june or july when everyone was praising some policy stuff that they had sent out, it is less meaningful than staff or private comments or just the composition of his support (winning more old white voters compared to clinton).
Are you being sarcastic?
Raoul, calm down. Biden isn't losing Pennsylvania.
Although if he is then feck it, I'm out.
He's a bit too close in FL and PA imo. HE could certainly win both, in which case NC would likely go to him as well.
hehe....the middle are the only thing keeping Biden on top at the moment.
Let's be realistic, Biden is not going to win FL, AZ, or PA by 5 points each on election day and that was never a feasible goal. The key is to win it by 1-2 points which he is well on course to doing in both PA and AZ. The significantly less number of undecided voters compared to 2016 means you are unlikely to see an election day surprise also.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/arizona/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/florida/
When you look at the Pennsylvania and AZ polling over time, there has been literally no change in the state of the race in the last 4 months, which is basically unheard of. Trump is still polling worse than he was in April dude.
The reason why folks are hyperventilating at certain times of the month is because these times of the month coincide with Trafalgar, Rasmussen, or Zogby releasing polls. The reason why the race has tightened a bit in FL is because of the Trafalgar poll between 9-1 and 9-3 putting Trump up by 3 points. Even with the new polling Biden is ahead in the average. This is the first FL poll that Marist seems to have released so we will have to see how their numbers fare next month. What is odd is that Trump leads among RVs but not LVs, which increases my doubt about the stability of their findings also. I do believe that other polls released later in the month in FL will restore Biden to what he was pre-convention as this has happened in every other battleground state.
I never expected Biden to win FL and he doesn't need to either but I do think he's in a better position considering that the current polls adjust for education unlike 2016. COVID will get worse before election day also. Ultimately, I would bet a lot of money that the Midwest and AZ carry him to victory, as many people have said all along, FL would be the cherry on top.
Yeah sadly I've come to the view that just in terms of beating Trump, Biden is the Dems best bet.
He’ll pivot though don’t worry.
This tweet further proves my point:
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The trouble in PA is that the 3 most recent Monmouth polls have Trump within the margin of error, which means he will likely outperform the poll by a couple of points if the 2016 standard repeats. Not good.
You can't compare the current polls to the 2016 polls as the current polls adjust for education. 2018 showed that these adjustments were sufficient to correct for the effect you have described from what I have read. With this taken into account and with 2018 as evidence, I don't think Trump will outperform the polls by 2 points. As a result, Biden is clearly outperforming Hillary.
Where all of this becomes an issue is if Trump is able to suppress the vote effectively by invalidating enough mail-in and absentee ballots. That's what people really should be worried about, rather than worrying about minute changes in polling data that are likely just noise.
All Trump has to do is suppress the vote by simply attacking Biden in several swing states. If he can demoralize about 2-3% of Biden's vote in these areas then he can win. Silver himself is giving Biden roughly the same chance of winning as he gave Hillary (roughly 70ish percent).
Again, you can't compare the 2016 538 forecast to the 2020 one as the underlying models between the two are different. Furthermore, the 2016 forecast accepted a lot of polls that did not weight for education and were poorly designed.
One could reasonably guess that if you were to apply Hillary's numbers to the 2020 model (which you can't really do as the underlying polling data was collected in a different fashion) then she would be at a 60% chance to win instead of Biden's 71%.
Not going to lie, I'm thoroughly enjoying this raoul moment 
Too right pal. Could you throw up a bit of trump policy for us while you are in your cloud of twitter farts. You know, just for reference. I love to know how low and dirty the Democrats are but I hear there is another party that's a little bit cuckoo.
All this talk about polling is flawed imho for two reasons :
1. Much more than in the previous election just about anyone clearly on the left or right already decided who they are voting against/not voting for.
2. Aside from Trump and the likes of Kemp trying to undermine the elections - something big will happen again we cannot foresee right now. I dont feel confident about a Biden win but with as many established names on the Republican side supporting Biden, and the RNC as a whole being surprisingly quiet and underrepresented at the convention it makes me feel that some know that whatever is coming is going to kill any chance Trump had. I find it hard to believe that many prominent names would do what they do and in essence going in against their party if they didnt believe that 1. Trump will lose and 2. That they will have the opportunity to reshape the party after. It just seems like a total lose lose situation otherwise.
Maybe im just trying to give myself false hope we can avert full on dictator conditions.
1. Much more than in the previous election just about anyone clearly on the left or right already decided who they are voting against/not voting for.
2. Aside from Trump and the likes of Kemp trying to undermine the elections - something big will happen again we cannot foresee right now. I dont feel confident about a Biden win but with as many established names on the Republican side supporting Biden, and the RNC as a whole being surprisingly quiet and underrepresented at the convention it makes me feel that some know that whatever is coming is going to kill any chance Trump had. I find it hard to believe that many prominent names would do what they do and in essence going in against their party if they didnt believe that 1. Trump will lose and 2. That they will have the opportunity to reshape the party after. It just seems like a total lose lose situation otherwise.
Maybe im just trying to give myself false hope we can avert full on dictator conditions.
Agreed, of those points, 1 is the big key point.
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These numbers...
On point 1 - Yes nearly everyone who is planning on voting should already know for who, but that doesn't factor in enthusiasm and who is actually going to be bothered to vote, especially with Covid. Therefore if Trump can chip away in a few key swing states, then he has a decent shot at winning again.
Why is the national poll in Trump ' s favour, didnt Biden have a double digit lead?
Anyone see what I see in the picture?
Fitting that Kemp’s daughter is apparently a Phi Mu.
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Fitting that Kemp’s daughter is apparently a Phi Mu.
Polling trend, not a poll.
under 45's being a tie could have much more to do with young folk just not voting for Sleepy Joe instead of shifting to Trump?
Perhaps. It’s the Latino number that is so shocking to me.
Right, actually reading stuff correctly matters occasionally...
Considering what latino's seemed to think of Biden in the early primaries, i'm not so shocked.
Also, considering the absolute hysteria of "Sanders will tank the latino vote in Flordia" during the primaries, this new poll is just......*Chef's kiss*
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