2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

[WPMUFC]

I look at this like a bad horror movie. Both parties are soulless monsters intent only on self preservation, but first we need to kill the rampaging racist vampire before then double tapping the bumbling, incompetent zombie. Priorities.

I agree, my only problem is that shes an incompetent fool. If you're not going to run the superior candidate just because he was a progressive, at least pick a moderate that is actually good as an opponent. Shes fecking useless.

 

[WI_Red]

I agree, my only problem is that shes an incompetent fool. If you're not going to run the superior candidate just because he was a progressive, at least pick a moderate that is actually good as an opponent. Shes fecking useless.

Without early voting I bet Booker would have eked it out, he closed very strong. He may not have beaten Turtle, but he would have at least been someone who stood for something and would have energized people.

 

[GiddyUp]

Yet the democrats decided to run a candidate that claimed mitch should be voted out because he stood in the way of trump implementing his policies.......i wish i was joking.

You just can't be a Democrat in these states. They firmly believed that Obama would be flying in on a black UN helicopter to send them to round them up in FEMA camps. At the same time their states face life or death issues on a daily basis and their chosen representatives gleefully feck them over at every turn.

 

[GiddyUp]

I agree, my only problem is that shes an incompetent fool. If you're not going to run the superior candidate just because he was a progressive, at least pick a moderate that is actually good as an opponent. Shes fecking useless.

Useless is being kind and McConnell's last opponent was the same.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

@Dwazza Gunnar Solskjær - penny for your thoughts here...

Only took two seconds to confirm.

 

[GiddyUp]

they need to up the dose!

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give him what trump's got

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Absolutely disgusting. Maybe we should embrace authoritarianism. Who needs fair elections, healthcare, retirement safety net, clean air and water and all that ridiculous stuff. As soon as he mocks a disabled person in front if a crowd of knuckle draggers I'm out. These old man gaffes are going to destroy this nation.

 

[Redplane]

The fact that there’s a limit to how easy it should be for people to vote, nevermind that the governor and judges, all appointed by a guy with a huge stake in the election, can decide it is mental.

And it again emphasizes how bad the results of the holier than thou virtue signaling of folks in the last election was for this country (and of course the failure of the DNC at that time but the right doesnt care when the RNC screws up) . The supreme court is a piece of the puzzle that seldomly comes into play for most of us, but the Republican packing of local courts does have frequently far reaching and immediate consequences.

 

[Raoul]

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[GlastonSpur]

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Wow - 5 points ahead in Florida. If Trump loses there it's going to be a landslide of epic proportions for Biden.

 

[Raoul]

Wow - 5 points ahead in Florida. If Trump loses there it's going to be a landslide of epic proportions for Biden.

He's ahead in FL in most recent polls. That said, the higher rated polls have it a bit closer. Even if he's ahead, I am still factoring in a 2 or more point anti-Trump bias in the polls (even though pollsters claim they fixed that from 2016). I'm also not convinced Trump will try to use friendly Governors and Sec States in various swing states to invalidate Dem ballots for frivolous reasons. Even 1-2% would have massive impact on the electoral college.

 

[Organic Potatoes]

I can see a scenario where a Dem win in Florida should have ended any doubt but it takes so long to finalize the numbers that the Upper Midwest had already decided the outcome.

 

[Wibble]

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If that is anywhere near true it will be an utter landslide.

 

[sport2793]

I can see a scenario where a Dem win in Florida should have ended any doubt but it takes so long to finalize the numbers that the Upper Midwest had already decided the outcome.

That's funny because most people are saying the complete opposite. Because the Rust Belt states do not allow pre-processing of early votes, they will likely take several days after election night to tally the final results. Florida by contrast allows pre-processing of early votes, which means there is a very good chance that they will have all of the votes counted by the end of the night or early next morning. Should also mention that FL requires that all votes be collected by election day, which contributes to the speed.

 

[Raoul]

If that is anywhere near true it will be an utter landslide.

Its one poll. Others may have it a bit closer and Trump may win some of the states where he's only down by a couple of points at the moment (or not). At this point both sides are trying their hardest to turn out as many people as possible.

 

[Wibble]

Its one poll. Others may have it a bit closer and Trump may win some of the states where he's only down by a couple of points at the moment (or not). At this point both sides are trying their hardest to turn out as many people as possible.

I hope it is an utter landslide to reduce the chance of Trump trying to dispute the result.

 

[sport2793]

This definitely cuts against the traditional wisdom but I actually have a feeling that the polls are underestimating the anti-Trump vote and the final results might end up being more of a landslide than people think they will be. Main reason for this is the potential for extremely high turnout. David Axelrod is currently predicting that we will see the highest turnout election since 1960 this year. Having read some stuff on polling methodology, I feel there is a chance that polls, especially in Sun Belt states, are not accounting for high turnout from traditionally low voting demographics (normally the polls shouldn't so this isn't a bad thing), and if these demographics turn out I think there is a great chance that they disproportionately vote for Biden.

@owlo any possibility that this might happen?

 

[berbatrick]

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[WI_Red]

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Gotta keep them black and brown people away from the white women....

Wtf, does he think it’s 1930? I mean I know his whole fortune is built on the back of racist renting and real estate practices of him and his dad, but you’d think someone in his adviser group would acknowledge that the majority of women are less racist than his racist uneducated white male base.

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

Watching that Mitch McTurtle clip is just painful, Democratic politicians are just so fvcking useless at debating. In the middle of a pandemic with your state being in the last 10 on most economic and wellbeing categories, you’d have thought a challenger would have the balls to call out the Senate Majority Leader representing your state for the last how many years for incompetence, instead of resorting to ‘hurt durr he couldn’t let Trump do his thing’ and ‘I’m a marine, we keep our words’.

 

[GlastonSpur]

I hope it is an utter landslide to reduce the chance of Trump trying to dispute the result.

Trump will dispute the result regardless. He inhabits this fantasy world where he can't possibly be a loser. He will start a thousand law suits. He will appeal to the Supreme Court. He will dog-whistle the neo-fascist militias. He will try and pull down the entire temple of democracy, law and order.

There is no way ever that Trump will gracefully admit defeat because he is a pathological liar, fantasist and fascist. We are still very far from seeing how crazy and bad he truly is.

 

[sammsky1]

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What are the reasons that previous Trump voters are not willing to vote for him again? Is there a singular issue or narrative that he has disappointed them with?

 

[sammsky1]

This definitely cuts against the traditional wisdom but I actually have a feeling that the polls are underestimating the anti-Trump vote and the final results might end up being more of a landslide than people think they will be. Main reason for this is the potential for extremely high turnout. David Axelrod is currently predicting that we will see the highest turnout election since 1960 this year. Having read some stuff on polling methodology, I feel there is a chance that polls, especially in Sun Belt states, are not accounting for high turnout from traditionally low voting demographics (normally the polls shouldn't so this isn't a bad thing), and if these demographics turn out I think there is a great chance that they disproportionately vote for Biden.

@owlo any possibility that this might happen?

Why would anti Trump voters be shy to express their genuine intentions in the polls?

 

[Raoul]

What are the reasons that previous Trump voters are not willing to vote for him again? Is there a singular issue or narrative that he has disappointed with with?

I don't think there's a single issue. Many don't like his general behavior, others don't like his COVID response, others don't like that some of the job claims he made about bringing back jobs during the 16 campaign didn't pan out, others may not like that his trade war with China negatively affected them etc.

 

[sammsky1]

I don't think there's a single issue. Many don't like his general behavior, others don't like his COVID response, others don't like that some of the job claims he made about bringing back jobs during the 16 campaign didn't pan out, others may not like that his trade war with China negatively affected them etc.

Interesting and good to know that Trump cant focus on one specific issue and solve with a golden bullet promise.

In fact its more likely this group of switchers could increase over last days as Dems highlight these various issues with more precision.

 

[Raoul]

Lincoln Project are going to have major egg on their faces if he wins.

 

[berbatrick]

I don't think there's a single issue. Many don't like his general behavior, others don't like his COVID response, others don't like that some of the job claims he made about bringing back jobs during the 16 campaign didn't pan out, others may not like that his trade war with China negatively affected them etc.

the biden-trump gap was ~3-5 before the 3rd week of May, which is when Covid became a US-wide thing rather than a NY-centric one, and when George Floyd happened. The gap went 5-7 after that. The next big shift was right now with his own diagnosis.
whatever the other factors, i think his covid response and the BLM stuff is what is decisive.

 

[Raoul]

the biden-trump gap was ~3-5 before the 3rd week of May, which is when Covid became a US-wide thing rather than a NY-centric one, and when George Floyd happened. The gap went to 7 after that. The next big shift was right now with his own diagnosis.
whatever the other factors, i think his covid response and the BLM stuff is what is decisive.

The BLM and Floyd issue was definitely a part of it as well. More broadly, Trump has completely failed to expand his base since his election and has apparently somehow managed to shrink the GOP base from 33 to 28%.

 

[Redplane]

I don't think there's a single issue. Many don't like his general behavior, others don't like his COVID response, others don't like that some of the job claims he made about bringing back jobs during the 16 campaign didn't pan out, others may not like that his trade war with China negatively affected them etc.

Yeah id be fine if it was just because he's a raging lunatic who has no manners and insults anyone and everyone - and that's putting it kindly... You know, some of the basic stuff that should have kept him far away from even getting through the republican primaries.

 

[sport2793]

Why would anti Trump voters be shy to express their genuine intentions in the polls?

I never said they were, I was implying that pollsters may not be asking low turnout voters.

 

[mariachi-19]

The BLM and Floyd issue was definitely a part of it as well. More broadly, Trump has completely failed to expand his base since his election and has apparently somehow managed to shrink the GOP base from 33 to 28%.

I would say that shrinking is more akin to more people becoming "poltically woke" then Trump necessarily shrinking the GOP.

 

[owlo]

This definitely cuts against the traditional wisdom but I actually have a feeling that the polls are underestimating the anti-Trump vote and the final results might end up being more of a landslide than people think they will be. Main reason for this is the potential for extremely high turnout. David Axelrod is currently predicting that we will see the highest turnout election since 1960 this year. Having read some stuff on polling methodology, I feel there is a chance that polls, especially in Sun Belt states, are not accounting for high turnout from traditionally low voting demographics (normally the polls shouldn't so this isn't a bad thing), and if these demographics turn out I think there is a great chance that they disproportionately vote for Biden.

@owlo any possibility that this might happen?

.

from 538

The most common worries for 2020 polling, though, stemmed from the pandemic. Several pollsters said they worried that pollsters would estimate turnout incorrectly. “This is a perennial difficulty for pollsters and survey researchers, which the pandemic is making even thornier,” CBS News’s Kabir Khanna explained. Quinnipiac University Poll director Doug Schwartz offered an example: “With the coronavirus, there may be voters who tell pollsters that they’re voting but then their area experiences a spike in cases around Election Day, and they no longer feel safe going to the polls.” And Emerson’s Kimball and Morning Consult chief research officer Kyle Dropp both pointed out that voters’ increased access to mail voting makes turnout extra unpredictable. And since polls are only as good as their turnout model, this could lead to some polling misses this fall. (In fact, FiveThirtyEight’s model even built in an extra layer of uncertainty this year because of the possibility that the pandemic will disrupt usual turnout patterns.

And I agree to an extent. It’s hard to know a) who will vote on the day due to this b) how many votes will be rejected. First time and infrequent voters often make more mistakes. c) whether voters will see the polls, decide its a done deal and stay home.

That said, turnout models are pretty sophisticated now, especially for the better pollsters. Eg siena college not only asks the respondents the question but then weights it against a pre modelled turnout, amalgamates the two and boom.

About the sun belt in particular I’m unsure. My eye for shocks would be on Alaska and Iowa. High elasticity and lots of non religious white men. (Note it’s white men who are winning this for Biden). Texas would be another one, but Abbott has his finger in the vote rigging pie already.

its also kinda weird, these are states that biden isn’t really campaigning or spending in so that could have an effect (lack of urgency for blue voters to turn out)

 

[Eboue]

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vote for democrats!

 

[Precaution]

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vote for democrats!

I hate this old hag, playing politics with people's lives

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

I hate this old hag, playing politics with people's lives

It’s not even playing politics correctly, now the Republicans get to say Democrats are killing people, despite the bungled pandemic response.

 

[TheGame]

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[unchanged_lineup]

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[Mike Smalling]

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vote for democrats!

I've said this before, but how the hell is she 80 years old? The amount of plastic surgery, botox, hair dye and make-up it must take for her to look like that.

America needs some new blood in politics across the board.

 

[unchanged_lineup]

Some interesting FL numbers in this thread if you can ignore the constant "drop a like" guff.

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[Pexbo]

Some interesting FL numbers in this thread if you can ignore the constant "drop a like" guff.

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I thought I could but it turns out I couldn’t.

 

[unchanged_lineup]

I thought I could but it turns out I couldn’t.

Understandable, tbh.