2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

[The United]

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I am wondering if this means more R coming out or more D from those counties coming out?

I feel a bit uncomfortable seeing R leaning counties have higher % turn out.

 

[SinNombre]

I think the numbers in parentheses are leads, not changes

I think he is responding to your post that counties in GA that went heavily Trump in 2016 are seeing elevated vote counts.

 

[SinNombre]

I am wondering if this means more R coming out or more D from those counties coming out?

I feel a bit uncomfortable seeing R leaning counties have higher % turn out.

GOP has seen increased voter registrations.

It may not mean anything (see 538) or could be the reason for the increased turnout

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...tion-might-not-mean-a-surge-in-trump-support/

 

[owlo]

I am wondering if this means more R coming out or more D from those counties coming out?

I feel a bit uncomfortable seeing R leaning counties have higher % turn out.

R vote is fairly saturated. 82.2% turnout in 2016. I and D much less so. There’s 1.2m new registered voters since 2016 in GA and trump hasn’t grown his base or enthusiasm for himself,

 

[The United]

GOP has seen increased voter registrations.

It may not mean anything (see 538) or could be the reason for the increased turnout

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...tion-might-not-mean-a-surge-in-trump-support/

What does that mean? The article said people probably didn't change their party when they vote the other after a lot of years.

But, if we talk about new recent GOP voter registrations, I doubt they will be putting R when they support Democrats?

I guess we will find out in a few days.

@owlo hopefully, that is the case.

 

[MrMarcello]

After seeing the low turnout numbers in 2016 compared to prior GEs, surely the increased voting and registration signals more people that sat out/unregistered in 2016 are voting this GE. Now, surely there cannot be a significant number for R increase as that group tend to vote en-masse each GE. It's surely a larger increase in newly registered Dems, "lazy" registered Dems voting this GE, and Independents going to both in higher numbers. If not then the GOP wouldn't be looking to suppress so many voting efforts this GE, more than any other GE in my memory.

Am I right?

 

[unchanged_lineup]

I am wondering if this means more R coming out or more D from those counties coming out?

I feel a bit uncomfortable seeing R leaning counties have higher % turn out.

There's a tweet later down that shows populations in each county that'd make you feel a bit better.

 

[Klopper76]

After seeing the low turnout numbers in 2016 compared to prior GEs, surely the increased voting and registration signals more people that sat out/unregistered in 2016 are voting this GE. Now, surely there cannot be a significant number for R increase as that group tend to vote en-masse each GE. It's surely a larger increase in newly registered Dems, "lazy" registered Dems voting this GE, and Independents going to both in higher numbers. If not then the GOP wouldn't be looking to suppress so many voting efforts this GE, more than any other GE in my memory.

Am I right?

This is my theory too.

 

[Charlie Foley]

I think he is responding to your post that counties in GA that went heavily Trump in 2016 are seeing elevated vote counts.

You’re right, I got confused!

It’s a shame some of those are Trump heavy counties, but, at the same time, I can’t imagine that many more Republicans coming out that didn’t already vote in 2016? It’s possible that these are people who weren’t convinced to vote for HRC but have been compelled to come out this time. I don’t know enough about these areas tbh

 

[Charlie Foley]

Also, it’s Georgia. I did a 270 map earlier. Even with Florida Iowa Ohio Georgia PA and North Carolina AND ME 2 trump doesn’t win

https://www.270towin.com/maps/Vp6Zk

 

[Cheimoon]

Surely the high voter turnout in terms of early voting is bad for Trump? His voters will go out and vote for him no matter what but a high turnout this early would lean more towards favouring Biden right?

In general, yes, although it depends on who's coming now that didn't before. But yes, usually it's better for the Dems, and advance voting in particular tends to lean heavily D. It's not for nothing the Reps are trying to limit voting turnout in whatever way they can. But they will also go on and do everything they can to stop votes from counting, so in some states, entire batches of those early votes might yet end up in the shredder...

 

[Raoul]

Also, it’s Georgia. I did a 270 map earlier. Even with Florida Iowa Ohio Georgia PA and North Carolina AND ME 2 trump doesn’t win

https://www.270towin.com/maps/Vp6Zk

This is why he's been visiting MN. He obviously knows he needs to pick off one more state to win.

 

[BeforeKeanetherewasRobson]

This is why he's been visiting MN. He obviously knows he needs to pick off one more state to win.

One? Is it possibly that close?!

 

[Ubik]

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Ernst leading 46-42 in the last DMR for Iowa. Still a bad feeling the Senate will stay in the grip of McConnell's barely human fingers.

 

[SinNombre]

One? Is it possibly that close?!

There is no path for Trump if Biden can hold PA.

I think that's the tipping point state.

I expect Trump to pick up FL.

 

[SinNombre]

You’re right, I got confused!

It’s a shame some of those are Trump heavy counties, but, at the same time, I can’t imagine that many more Republicans coming out that didn’t already vote in 2016? It’s possible that these are people who weren’t convinced to vote for HRC but have been compelled to come out this time. I don’t know enough about these areas tbh

The theory is that these are people who voted for Trump in 2016 and now have moved further right to register as a R.

So no additional votes for Trump in this scenario.

 

[Raoul]

One? Is it possibly that close?!

If Trump wins all the very close states and picks up MN then he can win. However, that will be very difficult given that he looks to be behind in PA, NC, and a few other places. Obviously, if he loses Texas then Biden instantly becomes President.

 

[RoadTrip]

I think the numbers in parentheses are leads, not changes

I was actually referring to your post not the one directly above mine!

 

[SinNombre]

Trump's best case scenario gives me an electoral college win of 299-239 .

Biden's best case scenario gives me an electoral college win of 401-137.

A Trump win is still within margin of error.

A GOP House win is now outside margin of error so the worst case outcome won't be as bad as 2016.

 

[WPMUFC]

Trump's best case scenario gives me an electoral college win of 299-239 .

Biden's best case scenario gives me an electoral college win of 401-137.

A Trump win is still within margin of error.

A GOP House win is now outside margin of error so the worst case outcome won't be as bad as 2016.

How Trump can win, but needs a huge error.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...ould-have-to-be-off-by-way-more-than-in-2016/

 

[berbatrick]

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Ernst leading 46-42 in the last DMR for Iowa. Still a bad feeling the Senate will stay in the grip of McConnell's barely human fingers.

Their primary poll underestimated Bernie and Pete and overestimated Warren at first glance.

 

[Fergies Gum]

Selzer just released some bizarre Iowa polling. These numbers seem way off.

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[Charlie Foley]

Their primary poll underestimated Bernie and overestimated Warren at first glance. Separately, Pete’s cronies attempted to rig the election

Fixed that

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

Selzer hasn’t been as good as usual this cycle, that said, a good pollster will publish outliers and you can’t knock them for that. That many undecideds however is contrary to nearly every single piece of polling data we have had recently, so she either will be proven right again like ‘16, or the field as a whole who show Biden consistently at or near 50 in all swing states are correct.

There are some NYT/Siena coming out shortly, with very big sample size, guess the picture will become clearer.

 

[Carolina Red]

Selzer just released some bizarre Iowa polling. These numbers seem way off.

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Trump just awarded Dan Gable the Presidential Medal of Freedom. He’s kinda the state of Iowa’s biggest hero, so that could actually have affected things there.

 

[owlo]

It's quite possible that Trump wins Iowa in my opinion.

 

[FrankDrebin]

Another 4 years.

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

It's quite possible that Trump wins Iowa in my opinion.

Iowa by itself doesn’t matter, but if he truly wins by 7 there then all the other Midwestern states are in trouble, unlike Ohio.

 

[owlo]

Iowa by itself doesn’t matter, but if he truly wins by 7 there then all the other Midwestern states are in trouble, unlike Ohio.

He’s not winning by 7. The poll is likely a bit off but theres been a couple in the last week to make you believe he has a good shot there. Don’t see Greenfield losing though. I’m trying not to read into linkage too much, it’s been a bit weird And individualistic all round. (See Pennsylvania for an independent soul)

 

[SinNombre]

Iowa by itself doesn’t matter, but if he truly wins by 7 there then all the other Midwestern states are in trouble, unlike Ohio.

He won Iowa by 9.5 last time.

As I have been saying the past week, PA will be the decider. He won by 0.72 last time, and Biden is consistently polling +2 relative to Hillary.

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

He’s not winning by 7. The poll is likely a bit off but theres been a couple in the last week to make you believe he has a good shot there. Don’t see Greenfield losing though. I’m trying not to read into linkage too much, it’s been a bit weird And individualistic all round. (See Pennsylvania for an independent soul)

PA being a bit redder than WI/MI is actually pretty consistent with 08/12/18, so it’s not a surprise.

The thing with Selzer is she doesn’t weight by education, so while she’s very accurate with primary polling, occasionally she will get it wrong in a national environment (2018). With that in mind, when an A+ pollster dedicated to a state who also was one of the two to get it right there in ‘16 (Monmouth did a point better) shows a result like that, it’s worth being considered nonetheless.

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

He won Iowa by 9.5 last time.

As I have been saying the past week, PA will be the decider. He won by 0.72 last time, and Biden is consistently polling +2 relative to Hillary.

PA is also extremely slow with counting their ballots, opening up a lot of potential for shenanigans. Biden can pick up NC, AZ, MI and WI in addition to the Clinton states and be declared the winner on Tue night.

It’s the most likely tipping point state, but we are in uncharted waters here with the pandemic and USPS being crippled.

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

Looks like Georgia is being Kemp’d again. And in NC...

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[owlo]

PA being a bit redder than WI/MI is actually pretty consistent with 08/12/18, so it’s not a surprise.

The thing with Selzer is she doesn’t weight by education, so while she’s very accurate with primary polling, occasionally she will get it wrong in a national environment (2018). With that in mind, when an A+ pollster dedicated to a state who also was one of the two to get it right there in ‘16 (Monmouth did a point better) shows a result like that, it’s worth being considered nonetheless.

You’d

PA being a bit redder than WI/MI is actually pretty consistent with 08/12/18, so it’s not a surprise.

The thing with Selzer is she doesn’t weight by education, so while she’s very accurate with primary polling, occasionally she will get it wrong in a national environment (2018). With that in mind, when an A+ pollster dedicated to a state who also was one of the two to get it right there in ‘16 (Monmouth did a point better) shows a result like that, it’s worth being considered nonetheless.

I agree, and combined with other polls I’d perhaps even favour him. However +7 would only be a 2 point D gain on 2016. That I don’t buy as plausible. Even in deepest darkest reddest states, I think hell outperform that.

PA is also extremely slow with counting their ballots, opening up a lot of potential for shenanigans. Biden can pick up NC, AZ, MI and WI in addition to the Clinton states and be declared the winner on Tue night.

It’s the most likely tipping point state, but we are in uncharted waters here with the pandemic and USPS being crippled.

He likely wins NC and GA, then it’s game over. We should know within 24 hours or so, not even including FL. NE2, Montana and Texas should also pretty much tell us which way it’s going. (I’d only expect an NE2 from those though to be blue)

 

[SinNombre]

PA is also extremely slow with counting their ballots, opening up a lot of potential for shenanigans. Biden can pick up NC, AZ, MI and WI in addition to the Clinton states and be declared the winner on Tue night.

It’s the most likely tipping point state, but we are in uncharted waters here with the pandemic and USPS being crippled.

If Trump is winning Iowa by +7, he is also winning NC and AZ imo.

Which brings us to Trump 269 - Biden 249 with PA undecided going into Wed but likely going to Biden.

Ensue chaos in a contingent election in the most polarized environment in decades.

 

[Lj82]

This is a good move (disappointing though if Walmart’s ultimate goal is to limit ‘unruly POCs’ from looting the stores & stealing the guns) . An even better move would be if they never returned those products back on their shelves.

One of the deepest impression my family had of the US in our 6 months there was our neighbourhood Walmart selling Arms. I know the US is a crazy place, but I didn't realise it is that crazy!

 

[calodo2003]

One of the deepest impression my family had of the US in our 6 months there was our neighbourhood Walmart selling Arms. I know the US is a crazy place, but I didn't realise it is that crazy!

Walmart apparently reversed its decision. We’re still batshit crazy.

 

[langster]

I don't think it matters who wins what state. Trump has set his stall out and sowed the seeds of division.

He won't accept any Biden win. He will contest everything and shout fix.

The only questions are will anyone listen? Will he go quietly? Or will he (like everything else) turn it in to a farce and cause mayhem?

 

[Redplane]

Looks like Georgia is being Kemp’d again. And in NC...

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[Lj82]

Walmart apparently reversed its decision. We’re still batshit crazy.

Due to backlash from gun nutters?