For two years perhaps. There's hope the senate could flip in 2022, and Turtle flaps loses his obstructionist powers. Until then we can just hope Biden restores US' standing and cooperation with its allies, especially during a crucial time such as now. I mean a President publicly backing his health/scientific experts and telling people to wear masks and socially distance is a big feckin victory in itself.
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
- Thread starter Raoul
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I've enjoyed your posts all day/night but not really sure why you're so combative towards 538 and Silver.Yeah it is close to the 299-239 prediction I made, which as per the 538 followers on here was "bullshit".
Oh well, we can all be glad that the Orange man is not going to win.
Biden should be a lock for Nevada. Remaining ballots are mail in, in the most democratic areas around and including Vegas.
If we get a good picture on how MI and WI pans out then I reckon Biden will be very confident.
Well the fella who's hopefully on his way out of the White House didn't exactly do a lot to unite.
Trying to not get my hopes up here. Trying hard.....but it's difficult.
Lead slightly widening in MI? Think its gone up a little
which one? the one on Philadelphia or the one in studios? both hot
So Biden definitely needs at least MI or PA?
A few hours ago, annoying booking loving posters were warring with mods and kept bleating on about bookies stating a certain Trump win.
Proves bookies know as little as pollsters!
Proves bookies know as little as pollsters!
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All bluster. Biden should pepper this into his celebration speech about that demographic...
They'll spout conspiracy theories and scream fraud online. That'll be the extent of it.
excellent, i dont have enough nails to bite
No - we instead get his pint sized neophyte, Phill Mattingly.
Both. God Bless America.
Not if he wins Georgia. But Michigan looks extremely good, considering Trump's narrow lead and the votes yet to be counted. Potentially it is not even close.
CNN MO seems to be suits in front of the TV maps, blondes on the road outside counting centres.
indeed
I think Maine and Collins probably show how much people still vote straight ticket and simply check "incumbent" without paying attention. The whole education attempt about knowing what/who you are voting for clearly hasn't worked very well - which is a bit scary when you consider so many more people now are sitting at home with the ability to pay attention.
They are not completely bs as they do have complex algorithms being worked on by the brightest minds and all that, but their business is to make money, not provide people with accurate analysis and predictions. The way some people treated these bookmakers as if they had insider info was hilarious.
straggling votes from little counties. The big surge for Biden will come when the next round if reporting comes in from Detroit and the surrounding areas, where hundreds of thousands of votes are still being counted.
This post proves you know nothing about betting markets.
People are referring to the exchange, not a standard bookmaker. Huge difference.
Anyway wont pollute the thread...
Yup, exactly 270. With the margins in nv, mi, and wi and possibly in ga, nc, something is going to go to the courts
So we're expecting an MI push and hopeful win with the Mail in ballots.
But does anyone know about Gary Peters in the senate.. This will help him close the gap too right? He's about 70k down.
Could he hold his seat in MI??
But does anyone know about Gary Peters in the senate.. This will help him close the gap too right? He's about 70k down.
Could he hold his seat in MI??
I'd rather have Susanna Reid in the studio presenting instead of Mr Generic Face Man #4 but it'll have to do.
I'll take the color commentary on this:
"Thanks Sparrow, the first young reporter you mentioned is Pamela Brown. Now Pamela did a fantastic job last night collecting and disseminating information. A real dynamo at the news desk. The second player you highlighted is Kate Baldwin. She is a versatile reporter who will pop up all over CNN to fill in for lead hosts. Really great talent on this CNN team. Back to you Raven "
What is happening with Michigan?
Seems like he'd win those 2. There are no more votes in WI and MI for Trump.
This. Absolutely ridiculous.
Michigan back up to 24K for Trump.
I got a full night's sleep. Feeling very refreshed, especially with the way things look to be trending for Biden at the moment.You're still awake?
How you feeling?
How did you feel at this point 4 years ago?
Still haven't slept. Been watching for 15 straight hours now.
Man, that has to be some of the most compelling commentating Ive ever seen. It was spellbinding and hypnotic to watch.
Most of us seem to be cheering on Biden. Are there many Trump fans on here?
David Goldstein showed the data he could find and how he could get more of the "desired" voters to vote in 2018 wasn't it? Simply by customized targeting ads the week before the election in a state. So, I get the potential amount of data available, the uncertainty at a individualistic level that leads to uncertainty at a larger level --> Uncertainty in the models due to data with a large degree of potential variation(?).
But I was refering more to the "live" model with the odds starting in favor of Biden, then Trumph clear favourite and then back again. What caused the shifts in the odds? If we had stopped the "simulation" when Trumph was the biggest betting favourite, then surely given enough time, one could have seen that certain areas with predominantly Biden voters had still not sent in their results which again should have impacted the model more. I'm not knowledgable in building software based prediction models, but from a risk analysis pov, the drastic shifts in odds does not seem to reflect the changes in the live results from the election. It is not like the results was equivalent to Trump scoring a goal and Biden lost Harris to an injury.
The ideal scenario...
Haven't slept all night but surprisingly feel calm and peaceful at the moment. Things do seem to be falling into place, fingers crossed for GA!
What’s the breakdown of remaining GA votes? Mail or could they count those straight away?
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