2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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Raoul

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Warren is really surging, though. I wonder at what point Bernie would concede to her. Would he take it all the way to the convention, if there is no clear winner?
Despite what seems to be a Warren surge, Sanders is still leading her in most states so the likelihood of him getting out just because she's doing well is probably zero.
 

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California Democrat primary rules are proportional delegates if the candidate can get over 15% of the vote.

So those current results would only help Bernie and Warren with delegates because neither Harris nor Beto is geting over 15% (of course that could completely change by next March)

And if Beto can win Texas and Biden falls below 15% in California that throws everything up in the air
Plenty of time until the primaries, but if the 15% proportional applies in every state then we may be looking at a 3 horse race going forward, until such time as someone else emerges from the pack to challenge that. Buttiegieg, being at 10-12% won't be worth anything at all unless he can move it up to 15, and even then, he would likely still be a distant last in terms of delegates won for a given state. Debates will be massive over the coming months.
 

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I don't mean now, but if she keeps climbing and he keeps... well, not climbing, and maybe even after a few Primaries.
They will both stay in it until they are mathematically eliminated and even then, one of them may delay conceding so they can buy themselves a bit leverage to shape the platform at the convention. That's obviously presuming someone like Biden wins the nomination. For all we know, Warren could wizz by everyone after the debates.
 

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Sure, but I don't see how this has anything to do with what I said. I didn't claim that all pollsters are created equal, that's why I brought up FiveThirtyEight in the first place. FiveThirtyEight uses polls with likely voters as well.

That's interesting. If you do remember where you saw it, I'd very much like to see that data.

I think you're misreading that. It has Trump as a more likely winner than Biden, Bernie or any other individual, because they still have to go through the primaries, while Trump is at least guaranteed a spot in the general election (well, essentially). Further down it appears they have the Democrats as favourites in general.

In any case, hasn't the "right-wingers don't dare tell pollsters their real position" thing been mostly debunked? I believe it's been shown that the polling errors generally go both ways, with no discernible pattern. So Le Pen did worse than many expected, for example, because they were pointing at Trump and Brexit and going "see, polls underestimate the right". The same happened in Austria, if I remember correctly.

In general, absolutely, but I was talking about the poll you linked, which has a very non-clickybait-y title:
Not sure what you're referring to so you'd have to link. I am talking specifically about the 2016 election where there is both anecdotal evidence and data that implies the polls systematically underestimated the turnout for Trump. When the article I linked showed that polls can swing 8 points from the same data set simply by how they formulate their likely voter calculations I don't see how that's even slightly controversial.

The other thing about the generic Democrat vs. Republican data is that another market only has Trump at 88cents for being the Republican nominee so the generic Dem. vs. Rep market wouldn't be assuming 100% that Trump is the nominee.
 

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They will both stay in it until they are mathematically eliminated and even then, one of them may delay conceding so they can buy themselves a bit leverage to shape the platform at the convention. That's obviously presuming someone like Biden wins the nomination. For all we know, Warren could wizz by everyone after the debates.
How do you know this? We have a ton of time between the start of the debates and next Feb-March when the votes start. If, for instance, Warren does surge after the debates its very likely that by Autumn there could be people dropping out and/or making behind the scenes deals and that includes the top 6. For instance if Mayor Pete stagnates and others surge why would he stay in just get a distance 6th when he could pull out after gaining the benefit of nationwide recognition and make a deal behind the scenes. I think he'd probably do that. I don't think any of the top 5 will stay in to the bitter end if they start tanking by the fall.

Oh and the 15% is a state rule in California as far as I know so it wouldn't necessarily be in play elsewhere.
 

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The other thing about the generic Democrat vs. Republican data is that another market only has Trump at 88cents for being the Republican nominee so the generic Dem. vs. Rep market wouldn't be assuming 100% that Trump is the nominee.
Perhaps not, but as I said, further down the page it's clear they have the Democrats as favourites against the Republicans, on the whole.
 

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How do you know this? We have a ton of time between the start of the debates and next Feb-March when the votes start. If, for instance, Warren does surge after the debates its very likely that by Autumn there could be people dropping out and/or making behind the scenes deals and that includes the top 6. For instance if Mayor Pete stagnates and others surge why would he stay in just get a distance 6th when he could pull out after gaining the benefit of nationwide recognition and make a deal behind the scenes. I think he'd probably do that. I don't think any of the top 5 will stay in to the bitter end if they start tanking by the fall.

Oh and the 15% is a state rule in California as far as I know so it wouldn't necessarily be in play elsewhere.
I just can't see Sanders dropping out under any circumstances until he's actually eliminated. He came too close last time and given that he will be over 15% in most states, I can't see any of the three top candidates dropping out unless one of them is so far ahead that it would be pointless to keep going. Sanders and Warren will therefore spend much of the primaries splitting the progressive vote, which will benefit Biden and force the likes of Buttiegieg, Warren, and Beto to position themselves somewhere between progressive and center, since there won't be enough votes from progressives to carry any of them and Biden will probably gobble up a vast majority of the ordinary Dem (aka Centrist) votes.
 

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How do you know this? We have a ton of time between the start of the debates and next Feb-March when the votes start. If, for instance, Warren does surge after the debates its very likely that by Autumn there could be people dropping out and/or making behind the scenes deals and that includes the top 6. For instance if Mayor Pete stagnates and others surge why would he stay in just get a distance 6th when he could pull out after gaining the benefit of nationwide recognition and make a deal behind the scenes. I think he'd probably do that. I don't think any of the top 5 will stay in to the bitter end if they start tanking by the fall.

Oh and the 15% is a state rule in California as far as I know so it wouldn't necessarily be in play elsewhere.
Could see him vying for a VP spot - probably positioned closely enough between the party's two wings for that to work.
 

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let me just take the spare five hundred bucks ive got every month and stick it in an account
It's scary how $500 monthly is supposed to be the more reasonable sum. That's higher than the total annual cap on most medical services in Norway (including visits to the doctor and the hospital, psychologist, surgery, necessary testing, prescriptions, etc).
 

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It's scary how $500 monthly is supposed to be the more reasonable sum. That's higher than the total annual cap on most medical services in Norway (including visits to the doctor and the hospital, psychologist, surgery, necessary testing, prescriptions, etc).
And that's on top of insurance. What's insurance for anyway?
 

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If Biden gets the nomination, it’s proof the Dem’s have learned absolutely feck all over the last 3 years.
 

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If Biden gets the nomination, it’s proof the Dem’s have learned absolutely feck all over the last 3 years.
That's likely true, especially given that there are a substantial chunk of Dems who think Hillary won 3m more votes and was cheated out of what was a probable win by Comey's last minute antics.
 
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let me just take the spare five hundred bucks ive got every month and stick it in an account

If Biden gets the nomination, it’s proof the Dem’s have learned absolutely feck all over the last 3 years.
Even the best outcome with Biden - he wins the nomination and beats Trump, all it will do is drag the democratic party to the right.
 

Pexbo

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Even the best outcome with Biden - he wins the nomination and beats Trump, all it will do is drag the democratic party to the right.
Yep. His “working with Republicans” will consist of him making huge compromises for them and getting nothing in return.
 

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Yep. His “working with Republicans” will consist of him making huge compromises for them and getting nothing in return.
Potentially 4 to 8 years of right wing policy and then whatever monster the republican base pukes up will win because of a disenfranchised dem voting base.

The nomination has to go to Bernie or Warren.
 

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Potentially 4 to 8 years of right wing policy and then whatever monster the republican base pukes up will win because of a disenfranchised dem voting base.

The nomination has to go to Bernie or Warren.
And it’s essential that they are backed by Democrat majority house and senates otherwise it’ll be a total waste of the next two cycles.
 

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And it’s essential that they are backed by Democrat majority house and senates otherwise it’ll be a total waste of the next two cycles.
Pretty much.

Although at least with Bernie he believes in mass movements as a way of change(This view along with foreign policy and heath care is in my view what sets Bernie miles ahead of Warren).
 

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Pretty much.

Although at least with Bernie he believes in mass movements as a way of change(This view along with foreign policy and heath care is in my view what sets Bernie miles ahead of Warren).
Bernie's issue is he hasnt been able to animate such a mass movement in sufficient numbers. Half the population still don't vote and there's no indication his participation is changing that in any way.
 

Sweet Square

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Bernie's issue is he hasnt been able to animate such a mass movement in sufficient numbers. Half the population still don't vote and there's no indication his participation is changing that in any way.
Yeah I know but Bernie is trying and will try if he becomes president(Its a very long, long shot but it's all the american left has). Warren won't do anything similar, mostly because it's not her type of politics.
 
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That's likely true, especially given that there are a substantial chunk of Dems who think Hillary won 3m more votes and was cheated out of what was a probable win by Comey's last minute antics.
The Dems in 16 put up the worst candidate since Dukakis. She should be in prison.
 

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Well the media is 90% left
We're talking about betting markets, not the media, which you would have realized if you either clicked the link or read the post I was replying to.

The Dems in 16 put up the worst candidate since Dukakis. She should be in prison.
And yet she still got 3 million more votes than Littlefingers.
 

altodevil

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Biden still in the lead. Why do the masses turn a blind eye to how little Biden/Obama sorted out Wall Street? Nothing changed with them. Disgrace.
 

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Biden still in the lead. Why do the masses turn a blind eye to how little Biden/Obama sorted out Wall Street? Nothing changed with them. Disgrace.
The masses are interested in beating Trump. If Biden is perceived as being the person most likely to do that then he will continue lead in the polls.
 

altodevil

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The masses are interested in beating Trump. If Biden is perceived as being the person most likely to do that then he will continue lead in the polls.
That's true, but it's for little benefit if nothing changes. Besides, there are plenty candidates with credentials to beat Trump.
 

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Biden still in the lead. Why do the masses turn a blind eye to how little Biden/Obama sorted out Wall Street? Nothing changed with them. Disgrace.
It's way to early. The establishment media ,Pelosi ,Schumer are pulling out the stops to push Biden ,but i'm sure when he actually gets on the debate stage , like always he will slip down in the polls.
 

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Thank you for this valuable political insight.
Imagine thinking Bernie is spineless. The only self-proclaimed socialist in the Senate (in the country that brought you Ronald Reagan and Joseph McCarthy), and was active in the civil rights movement (and whatever people think of the civil rights movement today, at the time it was highly unpopular).
 
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