2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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sammsky1

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Dem Mark Kelly wins Senator in Arizona

Dem 48:47 Rep with 5 seats to go.

Can Dems win?
 

Ubik

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What does that AZ Senate flip mean overall?
It was expected so doesn't change the overall picture - need the two in Georgia to get to 50 (or Alaska but that seems very unlikely.)
 

UnrelatedPsuedo

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It’s like they are claiming up as down.

He could have ensured hundreds of voting outlets per state. With masks, alcohol wash and social distancing. A voting process lasting a whole week.

All votes could have been made safely in person and tallied inside 24 hours.

He forced this situation and is blaming his own actions for the outcome.
 

WI_Red

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Mark kelly Dem wins Senator in Arizona

48:47 Dems with 5 seats to go.

Can Dems win?
I think it comes down to the 2 GA seats in the Jan runoff. I am assuming one party is taking both as I doubt there will be much in the way of a split ballot. Gonna be an insane election. So much money. I wish I could invest in Atl TV stations!
 

Siorac

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DEm Mark Kelly wins Senator in Arizona

Dems 48:47 Rep with 5 seats to go.

Can Dems win?
Yes, if they win the two run-off elections in Georgia in January. Will be very close.

Mathematically, Cal Cunningham still also has a chance in NC but it's very unlikely.
 

Redplane

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If Biden finishes more than .5% higher than Trump then there will be no automatic recount in PA. Trump will be able to request a recount, but he would have to pay for it himself (which given his history of being cheap is highly unlikely).

When has Trump actually ever paid for something himself tho? Hs stiffed just about anyone whoever did work for him or who gave him loans - other than repaying some of them through his powers as President I guess. Hope the FBI is watching closely at any transactions etc right now.
 

WI_Red

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Don't you love CNN's "First Move": Make CNN your "First Move". Also connect the world with Becky Anderson.
In the US we have waaaaay different commercials. I am getting non stop life and health insurance ads with a sprinkling of pet food/medication ads.
 

Mr Pigeon

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He won't. My bet is that he'll hold a rival rally at the exact same time, packed with Trumpite crazies all chanting "Lock him up" re. Biden
He's going to wander around like Viserys Targaryen, the Beggar King, talking to anyone who will listen about the man who stole his Iron Throne.

Ivanka is Daenerys.
 

Dr. Dwayne

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When has Trump actually ever paid for something himself tho? Hs stiffed just about anyone whoever did work for him or who gave him loans - other than repaying some of them through his powers as President I guess. Hope the FBI is watching closely at any transactions etc right now.
My assumption is he'll try to pay for the recounts with taxpayer money.
 

Cheimoon

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He promises them jobs
Yeah, I guess you could say the GOP promises them a way back to Olden Times - although most young poor whites would have never experienced those times.
You will get voting results by county and can then cross reference with county demographics. Not perfect because you can't tie a particular person to a vote, but you can make inferences based on them.
That sounds tricky to me. For example, if the votes were split nearly 50/50 in a county, you couldn't determine who voted what among those. You can't use data from elsewhere, as that would get you into circular territory. I suppose you can make some inferences once you start seeing correlations across the country (e.g., higher Dems votes in more diverse counties), especially by using counties that lean very heavily one way or another; but you would have to be extremely careful, since demographics is only factor among many (white men voting Dems in Oregon has no meaning for white men voting patterns in your beloved Alabama). it also won't work for gender/sex, since the men-women split won't be significantly different across the country.

So I guess I'm still skeptical about this not being based on polls. I'm no trained statistician though, I might be missing stuff. :)
 

Chesterlestreet

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Possibly stupid question (have been busy elsewhere all day): why have certain prominent sources called Arizona (if there's actually a reason to wait)? Don't get that.

ETA Is it because the Phoenix ballots haven't been counted?
 

The Firestarter

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In the US we have waaaaay different commercials. I am getting non stop life and health insurance ads with a sprinkling of pet food/medication ads.
Oh you are missing out on a ton of Nigerian mobile service providers . Only with GLO unlimited data plans you can experience the world in 4G!
 

Mr Pigeon

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@oates Plastic face man with white hair is bad on CNN with the same four people as two days ago, and I'm sitting in the same chair as last time drinking the same kind of iced coffee. I'm worried that I might be stuck in a simulation and, in reality, Trump has won and declared himself King.

I am correct?
 

sammsky1

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I think it comes down to the 2 GA seats in the Jan runoff. I am assuming one party is taking both as I doubt there will be much in the way of a split ballot. Gonna be an insane election. So much money. I wish I could invest in Atl TV stations!
Do you live in Atlanta?

Those voters are going to feel like rockstars, with the entire nation trying to persuade or bait them into vote in a particular way.

Will be very good for Georgia as the vote base can ask for all sorts of investment and opportunity in return for their votes!
 

Irwin99

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I think to fully understand the "socialist" smear you need to expand a touch beyond what we (correctly) understand as socialism which is a primarily related to economic aspects of society. The voters that hear the message I think also think of these socialists wanting to take away their religion, burn the flag, and probably also encourage abortions left and right, do drugs all day and force sex change operations on kids or something. Anyway, serious point is that they don't think the same thing we do when they hear "socialist".
I kind of feel that's something that America needs to understand and to get a bigger perspective on; that there is a massive difference between the left in Europe and what socialism means in Europe and what the left and socialism means in America. I kind of want to scream to Americans that the Democrat party are a right wing party and the Republicans are a very right wing party. If you think socialism or communism is coming with Biden then don't panic because;

  • You' will still have a MASSIVE gap between rich and poor
  • You will still have massive amounts of people struggling with healthcare
  • You will still have your guns and amendment rights
  • You will still have Jesus
so chill out.
 

WI_Red

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Yeah, I guess you could say the GOP promises them a way back to Olden Times - although most young poor whites would have never experienced those times.

That sounds tricky to me. For example, if the votes were split nearly 50/50 in a county, you couldn't determine who voted what among those. You can't use data from elsewhere, as that would get you into circular territory. I suppose you can make some inferences once you start seeing correlations across the country (e.g., higher Dems votes in more diverse counties), especially by using counties that lean very heavily one way or another; but you would have to be extremely careful, since demographics is only factor among many (white men voting Dems in Oregon has no meaning for white men voting patterns in your beloved Alabama). it also won't work for gender/sex, since the men-women split won't be significantly different across the country.

So I guess I'm still skeptical about this not being based on polls. I'm no trained statistician though, I might be missing stuff. :)
Absolutely. Campaigns have internal polling and demographics that could address it, but I have a feeling they are not going to share.
 

WI_Red

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Do you live in Atlanta?

Those voters are going to feel like rockstars, with the entire nation trying to persuade or bait them into vote in a particular way.

Will be very good for Georgia as the vote base can ask for all sorts of invents and opportunity in return for their votes!
Nope, in WI now. Lived in Birmingham for almost 2 decades.
 
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