The 2019 bill signing requiring felons to pay restitution to vote could be the game changer in Florida. Even after a fecking constitutional amendment was passed with 65%.
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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Dont forget a lot of latinos are strongly religious. Ironically Biden is clearly more so (by a lot) than Trump who just decided to become religious to get elected - but I wouldnt be surprised if many are single issue voters and follow that part of the GOP train.
Another good point. What is so odd for me is the Caribbean Latino diasporas that have been established / enlarged in Florida due to the hurricanes (mainly Puerto Rican, but many others) have not made an impact in FL elections, definitely not in 2018 & apparently not in 2020 either.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-poli...r-tuesday-results-exit-polls-turnout-patterns
Take into account Sanders rode the latinx wave in NV as well, i wonder if Biden has any plan for latinx campaigning?
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Based on that tweet it must have been 1 PM when Raoul started his meltdown.
1. There were pretty much no Latinos at the DNC, the campaign isn't chasing them. (I read something negative about their outreach director a few months ago).
2. Latinos are the only race where Bernie overperformed. He underperformed with blacks and his white numbers resembled his overall numbers.
3. Latinos are more conservative than white Democrats on social issues and more religious.
4. Florida has Cubans.
1-4 is a good set of reasons to explain these numbers.
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But Sanders probably did well in Texas but not in Florida though. He would have lost badly in Florida
yes 100%. his path was through the midwest, maybe arizona as the bonus. no chance in florida in the primary or the general, in 2016 or 20.
You can say that for Biden as well
All Trump has to do is show a credible lead on election night based off booth voting, he'll claim a victory (he'll claim a victory even if he's losing), and then GOP lawyers in swing states will try to invalidate huge swathes of mail votes.
Exactly this.
We talked about it earlier but he is going to go for the Bush v Gore strategy on steroids
and because democrats are democrats, i'd give him a good chance of pulling it off.
I’m not at all convinced by Silver’s model when it comes to the unpredictability of Trump voters and the unreliability of Dems to quit moaning on Twitter and actually show up to the polls in tipping point states. On the other hand, if Biden goes into mid October with a high single digit national lead, then with the debates behind him and given that enough mail in voting would have already taken place, he will be in a much stronger position than now.
Do you think debates will happen?
Saw this yesterday. Very troubling if true.
Yes. Trump needs them and has been asking for more of them and Biden has already committed to the usual 3 plus the VP debate.
Any explanation for why they are moving to Trump? I know they heavily favoured Bernie in the primaries so, could it be that some of them are staying home which combined with Cuban Americans in Florida falling for Biden is Castro messaging could explain the drastic switch but I'm not aware of any other reasons.
I think the first debate is the end of September isnt it
Will they have an audience (covid etc)
If you want to take anything positive from Florida it’s that over 50s Trump is underperforming and they’re a demographic where the votes really count. Biden losing the Latino vote will have less impact as minorities are often either gerrymandered into oblivion or fail to turn out in impactful numbers.
74% at 538
Gerrymandering doesn't play a part in presidential elections though.
Because Trump has so far effectively framed Biden as a socialist, which plays very strongly among (primarily older) Cubans.
He's doing quite well with non-Cuban hispanics.
Sure it does. There are bound to be many local and state offices/initiatives o the ballot. Gerrymandering leads to voter apathy and disillusionment when you think your vote will not matter. Just because your vote might matter for the Presidency and Senate does not mean you are going to be motivated to get fukced when it comes to every other item on the ballot.
You have it wrong as is your second paragraph. I am not an enemy of progressive ideas but in this current climate it would get eaten alive. None of Bernie or Warrens plans would pass any voting. It is just making it easy for Trump.
This 20-30 years stuff is nonsense. You underestimate the power of a Democrat government. Obama, who was your standard democrat did a lot of practical stuff for the people.
Someone engaged enough to care about local and state offices and whether their particular district is gerrymandered to the point of their vote being irrelevant is almost certain to vote in the presidential election.
It's very hard to imagine someone saying "I want to vote for Biden/Trump/Jorgensen but my vote for the representatives of the state legislature doesn't really matter so I'll stay at home". It's a lot more likely that someone's not going because their vote for the president doesn't matter one bit - if they don't live in a swing state - even though they could influence the outcome of local races.
Have you ever lived in a gerymandered district? I have. My wife and I campaigned for a progressive candidate for the state house in 2018 and spoke to many potential democrat voters. The majority of them were beat down from years and years of knowing that how some asshole drew some lines on a map would ensure that they would never be represented at the state and federal level (the House). This leads to a general belief that voting doesn't matter since you never see it work for you. So yeah.
I live in an entirely gerrymandered country
But fair enough. Still, this is what I originally replied to:
In this sense, it's not gerrymandering that matters, it's the failure to turn out in impactful numbers. Gerrymandering is just one reason for that. It won't have a concrete, clearly measurable influence: if Biden wins 50% plus 1 vote in a given state, he wins the state, even if all those votes come from a couple of districts drowning in a sea of red. That's what I originally meant.
I hope no one takes these percentages seriously anymore. There is no way for the percentages to take into account voter suppression, the mail-in voting fiascos, and the Trump strategy of trying to litigate a Bush v Gore pt. 2. Plus, even if Biden was granted a 99% chance of winning and Trump won, the poll humpers would just say Trump hit that 1% chance so nothing wrong with the polls.
I live in an entirely gerrymandered country
But fair enough. Still, this is what I originally replied to:
In this sense, it's not gerrymandering that matters, it's the failure to turn out in impactful numbers. Gerrymandering is just one reason for that. It won't have a concrete, clearly measurable influence: if Biden wins 50% plus 1 vote in a given state, he wins the state, even if all those votes come from a couple of districts drowning in a sea of red. That's what I originally meant.
Ha!
I would agree with your statement, after all, one of the reasons for gerrymandering is to discourage turnout.
Don’t Cubans typically vote GOP?
I only know a few, but they’re all Republicans.
I only know a few, but they’re all Republicans.
Pretty much. They hate communism so the GOP is the only answer. Social conservatism also plays a part (anti-abortion, etc).
Older generation Cubans do (those who emigrated from Cuba & first born in the US). The political leanings shift left on average the younger Cuban Americans get.
Not a bad Marist PA poll, eh?
Its very encouraging. Today's news will also hurt Trump's chances imo.
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