2024 U.S. Elections

[calodo2003]

Yeah, I know.... hence why I said Gov Mansion and not the White House

I am all over the place today.

 

[Morty_]

You think that Cooper would have on okay chance for senate in 26, btw?

 

[GiddyUp]

Wow. The ignorance of how politics & governance works by some is astonishing.

I had a long reply for the "if you don't like it leave" post. I just said feck it, what's the point. A lot of faux intellectuals when it comes to US politics.

 

[WI_Red]

I had a long reply for the "if you don't like it leave" post. I just said feck it, what's the point. A lot of faux intellectuals when it comes to US politics.

Imagine if you rocked up in the Israel/Palestine thread and dropped that viewpoint. I don't think that particular poster would be nodding along. People should not have to leave their home to find safety.

 

[NotThatSoph]

Imagine if you rocked up in the Israel/Palestine thread and dropped that viewpoint. I don't think that particular poster would be nodding along. People should not have to leave their home to find safety.

The two statements aren't remotely similar, so having different reactions to them would make sense. Especially since what was said about the US was that the poster themselves would leave, not that everyone should leave.

 

[ManUtd1999]

For tonight’s primary election in Michigan: according to average polling, Trump is up 80-18% (538) and 76-24% (RCP). I’m curious to see if Haley can exceed these numbers, say reach 30%.

 

[Sweet Square]

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[Morty_]

Uncommitted is doing quite well, wonder how many sits out in November.

On the other hand, Trump's numbers aren't particulary scary either so far.

 

[ManUtd1999]

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He’s going to get 75-80% despite all the efforts to make people vote Uncommitted. That’s not bad.

Having said that, Biden need to change course on Gaza, both on the merits and for political purposes. The war must end.

 

[Pintu]

Just heard on CNN that ”Uncomitted” could hit 100.000 or more, this is a state that Hillary lost by 10.000 votes…

 

[Morty_]

Just heard on CNN that ”Uncomitted” could hit 100.000 or more, this is a state that Hillary lost by 10.000 votes…

A good bunch will vote dem in November, a good bunch of Haley supporters will supposedly not vote for Trump under any circumstances.

All in all, these are two weak candidates, hopefully Biden will limp across the finish line in November.

 

[4bars]

A good bunch will vote dem in November, a good bunch of Haley supporters will supposedly not vote for Trump under any circumstances.

All in all, these are two weak candidates, hopefully Biden will limp across the finish line in November.

Vote supression favours trump IMO

 

[Jev]

A good bunch will vote dem in November, a good bunch of Haley supporters will supposedly not vote for Trump under any circumstances.

All in all, these are two weak candidates, hopefully Biden will limp across the finish line in November.

I feel like time is working in Biden’s favour. Eventually the ordinary American is bound to start feeling the effect of a healthy economy, and the Russian aggression may give some swing (or even GOP leaning) voters pause before allowing chaos to enter the White House in such a situation. I’m feeling slightly optimistic but it may just be wishful thinking.

 

[Mike Smalling]

I doubt the old dope will get the message from the Uncommitted campaign, and if he does he is not likely to change cause.

 

[4bars]

I feel like time is working in Biden’s favour. Eventually the ordinary American is bound to start feeling the effect of a healthy economy, and the Russian aggression may give some swing (or even GOP leaning) voters pause before allowing chaos to enter the White House in such a situation. I’m feeling slightly optimistic but it may just be wishful thinking.

Economics never mattered less in this culture war time. His senility and how they will spin it will be brutal. The more voters they will allienate to not vote, the worse as trump has the biggest hardcore cult

 

[Jev]

Economics never mattered less in this culture war time. His senility and how they will spin it will be brutal. The more voters they will allienate to not vote, the worse as trump has the biggest hardcore cult

That’s not true, economy is one of the most important issues to the electorate, and has been one of the main complaints about Biden

 

[adexkola]

I could not care less about funding campaigns and winning elections just for the sake of it. Elections have consequences, that’s why I usually care about them.

And, with Trump, democracy is at stake. No one needs to convince me of that. I have eyes and ears, and I have seen enough.

See, with Romney and McCain I had disagreements on policies. With Trump, it’s something at a totally different level. I wouldn’t crawl on broken glass to vote against Romney, but I would crawl on broken glass to vote this November, and I live in a very blue state.

Then crawling on broken glass would be pointless, because your vote for the presidency is literally pointless.

So also is mine. Because I live in a very blue state that they don't even bother polling

 

[Mike Smalling]

This may sound a bit weird, but is less than 70% not quite bad for Trump? I might remember this wrong, but I thought he was supposed to get around 80% according to the polls.

 

[Jev]

This may sound a bit weird, but is less than 70% not quite bad for Trump? I might remember this wrong, but I thought he was supposed to get around 80% according to the polls.

Yeah, he has consistently underperformed his polls so far. Nate Cohn had a theory the other day that it may be because anti-Trump voters are highly incentivized to turn out, more so than less passionate Trump voters. Hopefully that’s true as that would bode well for Biden.

 

[Mike Smalling]

Yeah, he has consistently underperformed his polls so far. Nate Cohn had a theory the other day that it may be because anti-Trump voters are highly incentivized to turn out, more so than less passionate Trump voters. Hopefully that’s true as that would bode well for Biden.

It would only bode well for Biden, if those anti-Trump voters would then not show up in November or vote for Biden instead. You could see a situation where a lot of these Haley voters eventually decide to vote Trump anyway, simply because he is the Republican candidate.

 

[calodo2003]

I doubt the old dope will get the message from the Uncommitted campaign, and if he does he is not likely to change cause.

What message is it really? The same message was anticipated in NH, that was a fizzle. It's microconcentrated.

Sure, 'uncommitted' is having its day in the sun, that's because it is the Michigan primary. 'Uncommitted' is a flat out non-entity outside the Michigan state bordera.

 

[calodo2003]

This may sound a bit weird, but is less than 70% not quite bad for Trump? I might remember this wrong, but I thought he was supposed to get around 80% according to the polls.

To some, it is a reflection of no weakness.

He should be easily clearing 80% & closing in on 90% when Rep voter enthusiasm is considered & this imbues some with a false of confidence & reality. But, when the reality of lost independents & Never Trump Haley voters are actually considered, a more flawed candidate appears.

Sure, he could still beat Biden, but he is not a behemoth.

 

[Mike Smalling]

What message is it really? The same message was anticipated in NH, that was a fizzle. It's microconcentrated.

Sure, 'uncommitted' is having its day in the sun, that's because it is the Michigan primary. 'Uncommitted' is a flat out non-entity outside the Michigan state bordera.

Well, the message is deep dissaticfaction with Biden's handling of the Gaza situation, of course. The number of people that are voting uncommited is creeping up towards Biden's winning margin of 154k votes in the 2020 general election.

 

[Jev]

It would only bode well for Biden, if those anti-Trump voters would then not show up in November or vote for Biden instead. You could see a situation where a lot of these Haley voters eventually decide to vote Trump anyway, simply because he is the Republican candidate.

A lot of the Haley voters will vote for Trump, obviously, but it bodes well for Biden regardless if anti-Trump voters are more incentivized to turn out. It also shows that the polling institutes seem to have corrected, or even overcorrected, for the silent/shy Trump voter factor, which is also good news for Biden.

 

[Morty_]

So, Trump underperformed by double digits in Michigan, that is really something.

Biden did ok, all things considered.

 

[Pintu]

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100k… He was only 90k off.

 

[WI_Red]

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100k… He was only 90k off.

That is actually pretty good for Cramer.

 

[Beachryan]

Hopefully this actually gets through to the Biden folk. Still have no idea what he's playing at, particularly domestically given the importance of November.

Personally I'd like to see him totally tear into Netanyahu, cease supplying anything, cease vetoing. Then when Netanyahu continues to do exactly what he wants, at least it won't be on 'genocide Joe'.

Also note that Hamas have rejected the proposed cease fire. I look forward to the uncommitted teams comments.

 

[maniak]

Also note that Hamas have rejected the proposed cease fire. I look forward to the uncommitted teams comments.

I don't really think comparing the rejections of hamas to those of the us/israel camp is really the gotcha moment you think it is.

 

[maniak]

Wow. The ignorance of how politics & governance works by some is astonishing.

your best option is surely to vote for him but then lobby, campaign and protest against the policies you don't like and/or for the things you do want that aren't being done

Indeed. Imagine believing you vote for a terrible guy and then you can just change his mind by campaigning or protesting.

 

[Raoul]

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100k… He was only 90k off.

It won't matter in the end since the fighting will probably be long over by November, which will reduce the temperature among the small amount US voters who actually care about this issue. Further, it won't matter much in the long run since both Biden and Trump are very pro-Israel, and one of the two is going to be the next President.

 

[Rob]

I can’t help but feel that what Haley decides to do when she drops out could decide the race. As in, if she endorces Trump, Trump wins. Not only because it’ll allow her voters to hold their nose and vote for him in good conscience, but also the undecided who will see a a Republican Party in unison.

 

[Redplane]

It won't matter in the end since the fighting will probably be long over by November, which will reduce the temperature among the small amount US voters who actually care about this issue. Further, it won't matter much in the long run since both Biden and Trump are very pro-Israel, and one of the two is going to be the next President.

For better for worse- Anyone who thinks someone has a shot at the WH while alienating Israel is lying to themselves. The far right neo nazi contingent literally hates Jews and still embraces Trump and his Jewish relatives while he was hugging it out with Netanyahu, so that's probably not a wagon you wanna pin your hopes on either.

 

[Morty_]

I can’t help but feel that what Haley decides to do when she drops out could decide the race. As in, if she endorces Trump, Trump wins. Not only because it’ll allow her voters to hold their nose and vote for him in good conscience, but also the undecided who will see a a Republican Party in unison.

Haley will almost certainly fall in line, but i happen to think a good portion of her voters won't vote for Trump anyway.

 

[Raoul]

For better for worse- Anyone who thinks someone has a shot at the WH while alienating Israel is lying to themselves. The far right neo nazi contingent literally hates Jews and still embraces Trump and his Jewish relatives while he was hugging it out with Netanyahu, so that's probably not a wagon you wanna pin your hopes on either.

100%

The uncommitted campaign is simply a way to change Biden's policy on Israel, which isn't going to happen in any meaningful way that would assuage its proponents, which is why its a political dead end for those seeking to strong arm him. The only way to stop the fighting is to create a hostage deal, which is what Biden has been working on all along with the Qataris, Egyptians, and others.

 

[Mike Smalling]

I can’t help but feel that what Haley decides to do when she drops out could decide the race. As in, if she endorces Trump, Trump wins. Not only because it’ll allow her voters to hold their nose and vote for him in good conscience, but also the undecided who will see a a Republican Party in unison.

She has literally signed a pledge to support Trump if he is the nominee, and raised her hand at the first GOP debate to show she would support him even if he was convicted.

 

[Hamnat]

Yeah Haley supporting Trump will be just another day in the GOP. They all fall in line no matter how bad he dragged them and their families. That very thing is what got them into the position of being so beholden to this fraud and his cult. Then when they get out of office and want to get their memoir out there and redeem their image for history. They start talking about how awful the rest of them were and none of the GOP really want to actually work.

 

[Red in STL]

Yeah Haley supporting Trump will be just another day in the GOP. They all fall in line no matter how bad he dragged them and their families. That very thing is what got them into the position of being so beholden to this fraud and his cult. Then when they get out of office and want to get their memoir out there and redeem their image for history. They start talking about how awful the rest of them were and none of the GOP really want to actually work.

At the end of the day she's a Republican, unless she turns in to Liz Cheney she's never going to support a non-Republican candidate, especially as she'll most likely run in 2028

 

[Hamnat]

At the end of the day she's a Republican, unless she turns in to Liz Cheney she's never going to support a non-Republican candidate, especially as she'll most likely run in 2028

The difference with the usual. All rally behind the guy who won however. Is we are talking about a proven fraud, and unapologetic liar. A guy literally draining all the resources and who can clearly be tied to their recent election losses with his support of awful extremist candidates. This isn't a matter of a small difference of opinion.

If you can turn around and support a guy who literally had a sexual assault judgement handed down to him. An unabashed racist, then who is going to buy anything she says about how "different" she is. Same with all of them. Will say it again. I don't support any of Liz Cheney's actual policies. But, at the very least she doesn't sit there in the cult telling us the Earth is flat and up is down. Shes no hero for doing the very basic decent thing but you can respect at least she has principals.

 

[B. Munich]

Personally I'd like to see him totally tear into Netanyahu, cease supplying anything, cease vetoing. Then when Netanyahu continues to do exactly what he wants, at least it won't be on 'genocide Joe'.

Hmm.... Let's assume Biden is going to do how you suggest. He definitely will win 60k to 80k more votes. However, wouldn't he lose a lot of Jewish voters, whose numbers are much, much higher.

Looks a loose loose situation for Biden